Stock Market: Warren Buffett's Two Rules of Investing!!

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결론: 현재 시장은 역사적 고평가 구간이므로 신중하게 대응하라는 경고 영상이다. 워런 버핏의 '손실 금지' 원칙을 언급하며 시장 밸류에이션을 점검한다. 버핏 지표(기업주식 시가총액/GDP)는 2017년 10월 기준 131.5%로 1950년 이후 두 번째로 높은 수준이며, 2000년 고점 151.3%에는 못 미친다. 윌셔5000 대비 GDP 변형 지표는 129.6%로 1970년 이후 두 번째로 높으며, 2000년 고점 136.5%보다 낮다. 월봉 RSI 분석: 다우(DIA) RSI 91.6으로 최근 20년 최고 수준, S&P500(SPY) RSI 89.4로 역시 20년 최고권이다. 다만 어떤 지표도 전체를 설명하지 못하므로 여러 지표를 함께 봐야 한다고 강조한다. 발언자는 '지금 당장 전부 팔아라'는 것이 아니라 신중하고 조심하며 투자 대상을 잘 알라는 입장이다. 언급 자산은 S&P500(고평가 경고), 다우(DIA, RSI 과열) 두 가지이며 방향성 가격 예측은 없다.

다듬은 글

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01. hello it's chu dog charts now most every investor knows who Warren Buffett is but do you know warns to investment rules let's take a look Warren Buffett is one of America's greatest investors as of October 20th 2017 according to the Bloomberg billionaires index Warren is the third richest person with a net worth of 80 point five billion dollars along the way to reaching his current net worth Warren Buffett has been attributed several notable quotations to the more important quotes are as follows rule number one never lose money rule number two never forget rule number one in the process of reaching his net worth he has been also attributed to one particular evaluation measure in addition to that I want to talk about a valuation measure that I look at but let's first look at Buffett's valuation measure this is a chart from advisor perspectives with regard to the so-called Buffett indicator looking at corporate equities to GDP this is the current or most current valuation as of October 2017 and it goes back all the way to 1950 as we can see on the chart in 2000 the level was at a hundred and fifty one point three percent of corporate equities to GDP currently we sit at 131 point five percent now with regard to buffets rules of never lose money in today's market we are at very lofty elevations so I'm not saying that it's time to sell or time to sell everything or even time to sell anything all I'm saying is with regard to historical measures we're at the second highest level going all the way back to 1950 so my point is be prudent be cautious and know what you're investing in this chart here also from advisor perspectives is a variation of the buffett indicator using the will Shire 5000 to GDP this chart goes back to 1970 and similarly currently we are at the second highest level during that timeframe and we sit at a hundred and twenty nine point six percent versus the peak in 2000 at one hundred and thirty six point five percent so basically the idea is that we are at lofty levels and this is a time to be prudent now let's go look at an indicator that I have been watching the chart we're looking at is the 20-year monthly chart on the Dow Jones Industrial atf trust or dia or the diamonds as of October 20th 2017 using real time stock quote comm charts as we can see here we're currently at two hundred and thirty two dollars and sixty-five cents now you know I like looking at the monthly chart because it gives a much longer perspective and an overall larger picture of the markets here we have the MACD we're still an uptrend histogram also shows that we had a slight upward moving down to the relative strength is what I wanted to talk about here we can see that the RSI is currently at ninety one point six and if you go and put the horizontal line here at this point you can see that we are at the highest level that we have been in the last twenty years again a different measure no measure is going to give you all of the information but what you want to do is you want to take a look at several measures in order to gain a better perspective of what your investment should be and what your level of caution should be now this is just the diamonds so let's go take a look at the S&P also on the 20-year monthly with regard to the S&P using the Spyders sp why we're at two hundred and fifty six dollars and seventy four cents and moving down again to the relative strength index we're at eighty nine point four not quite as high as the diamonds but still looking back through history at least the last 20 years we are again at the highest level simply an indicator telling us that as investors it's time to be prudent so this is a relatively short video but I just wanted to point out a couple of indicators that you may want to watch on a monthly basis as I do just to keep a tune of the current market in respect to the overall picture so thank you again this is qu Dawg charts