저자: 제이미다이먼 · 외국인
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결론: 다이먼은 경기침체는 아니지만 금리 상승과 지정학 리스크로 시장 변동성이 커질 것이라 봄. 거시경제 전망: 과거 6월에 경고한 '경제 허리케인'은 아직 확정되지 않았으나 양적긴축, 재정부양, 미중 긴장 등으로 나쁜 결과 가능성 존재. 전쟁은 예측 불가하며 인도적 위기가 더 우려됨. 인도 전망: 기술 인재와 제도 개혁(생체인증 신원확인, 계좌개설, 규제 정비, 파산·세법 등 법치) 덕분에 향후 10년 가장 빠르게 성장할 국가가 될 수 있다고 평가. 인도 국채: JP모건 글로벌 채권지수 편입 가능성에 대해 결정이 9~10월 사이 나올 수 있다고 언급, 다이먼은 편입 요청이 정당하다고 답변. 금리·주식: 금리가 추가로 150bp 오를 수 있으며 이는 성장주에 가치주보다 큰 영향을 줄 것. 인도는 성장주 비중이 높아 영향이 다를 수 있음. 금리 1%와 10%에서 현금흐름 가치 차이를 예로 설명. 자산 전망: 금리 상승은 비트코인·금·일부 부동산·토지·벤처캐피털·성장주 등 모든 자산 가치를 낮출 수 있음. 비트코인은 현금흐름이 없어 금리 상승 시 불리하며, 블록체인 자체와 실제 기능이 있는 토큰은 가치가 있다고 봄. 정치·지정학: 중간선거 등 선거는 보통 경제에 큰 영향이 없으나, 우크라이나 전쟁 이후 안보 가정이 바뀌었고 서방은 민주주의 수호와 식량·에너지 안보를 위해 협력해야 한다고 주장. 핀테크·빅테크: 핀테크와 빅테크(애플 등)의 경쟁이 치열하며 규제 차이로 이들이 유리한 점이 있음. JP모건은 경쟁 속에서도 자신감이 있다고 밝힘. 출연자 전망: 다이먼 개인은 인도 성장 가능성에 낙관적이나 글로벌 거시 리스크는 신중하게 봄.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to the global dialogue i'm shirin bhan the world is going through immense amount of uncertainty there is a health crisis there's an energy crisis there's an inflation crisis and there are geopolitical flash points that we have to contend with india stands out relatively as a much more stable destination joining me now for the annual india investment conference for his view on where things currently stand for the global economy and for india is jp morgan's jamie dimon jamie manny thanks for joining us here on cnbc tv 18 always good to have you back i'm thrilled to be here only sorry i couldn't be there in person because i very much enjoy visiting india every year well jimmy before i talk to you about india let me ask you about the state of the global economy you said in june that we should be bracing ourselves for an economic hurricane you weren't sure then whether it was going to be a minor one or a superstorm as things currently stand which is it likely to be so actually earlier that i said we have storm clouds out there i think those storm clouds hit you know you mention them like there's a lot of turbulence out there and i you know i was never trying to predict a hurricane i was simply trying to explain to people that it could be a very modest storm like it could dissipate quickly or it could be a hurricane and that people should be prepared for getting worse because we've never you know this war quantitative tightening fiscal stimulation the tension between america and china these are just very serious things you have you know bad economic outcomes well speaking of bad economic outcomes are you now pencilling in the worst case scenario given the fact that central bankers have no choice but to continue to tighten and what we have seen at this point in time is further deterioration as far as russian ukraine is concerned and further tension between china and the us over taiwan uh are you now bracing yourself for the worst outcome no i mean maybe you'll be surprised but when i said in june i expected all those things to happen more inflation higher rates i i talked about an unpredictable war wars are unpredictable i still think the range of outcomes is a range and you should look at it you know i think a ware said 'm also ne and that's why i think it feels really repaired i'm much more concerned by the humanitarian crisis the war you know these are bad things you know volatile markets we can all deal with but there are a lot of people who are being hurt by these conditions around the world oh absolutely in fact uh uh you know the sustained with sustainable development goals uh nearly every single one of them we are off track and it looks like the 2030 timeline is unlikely to be met but you know let's talk about india jamie and uh it would have been nice to have you in india but what's the outlook on india at this point in time especially given what's happening around us look i think it's very good you know since i've been coming to india i've seen a nation that's you know grown dramatically over time like we have 40 000 people there it's our the second biggest destination for technology for us so it's very high tech and so if your your education systems are excellent you're a lot of things but look and you've done a lot of really i've always had fabulous things like your biometric identification open and checking accounts trying to develop your infrastructure better uh you know getting rid of bureaucratic regulatory murders it should be the fastest growing nation to plan for the next 10 years if you don't it's because you didn't do all the right things i think if you do those things it's very bright and you know you have people like america who t's not anti-chinese but a i you got to make sure the rules are right the regulations are right the capital is treated right uh you know and i talked about rules of reagan talk about rule of law bankruptcy tax bankruptcy law tax code if you get those things right the world is your oyster well we have a lot of that already in place of course more work needs to be done but a lot of those reforms have already been taken forward but jamie you know one of the things that the market is going to be watching very closely for is the possibility of the inclusion of the indian government bonds in the jpmorgan global bond index and you know the expectation is that we could hear a decision on that front sometime between september and october would it be a legitimate ask to uh to have india as part of the bond index absolutely you should ask me uld there is a sign i credit investment yeah well we are waiting for that decision uh but you know you talked about fund flows uh jamie and i want to understand from you what the outlook is as far as fun flows are concerned into emerging markets like india in light of the fact that we are now seeing the fed hike and perhaps needing to hike even more aggressively and what is the trajectory on rates that you are now working with yeah so you know one of the things where i told those storm clouds is i said that one thing i could project with if you don't know th is still strong isn't going to be a recession what's good what's the real effect of f you look at emerging markets and the strong dollar you have to go country by country some countries benefit from don't get hurt as much from a strong dollar some benefit from it some sell commodities in dollars some buy a lot of oil and dollars so it's literally country by country what they borrowed how much debt they have and stuff like that but it does cause a lot of treatments for the flow of funds you know markets t' the other thing to probably okay uh you know talked about uh fund flows uh let's talk about what's happening as far as the stock markets are concerned uh the kind of correction that we have seen in the global markets india has been relatively an outperformer in comparison what's the outlook as far as global equities are concerned in light of the uncertainties that you spoke of you know listen bond prices affect stock prices and and dramatically sometimes and you've seen some of that you know i think that interest rates may have to go up another leg you know 1500 basis points that will have an effect on stock prices it'll have much more effect on growth stocks than value stocks and less of effect in india because in india you know you have a lot of growth stocks you know your growth prospects are so good for so long it's just going to have a different effect on people you know investing long-term money uh in india but but to give you a shocking kind of number you know one percent interest rates a dollar a year is worth a hundred dollars at ten percent interest rates it's worth six or seven you know it's worth ten dollars and at ten percent interest rates you know sixty-five percent of the value is in the first ten years at one percentage rate something like six or seven percent of value is the first 10 years so anything has cash flows way out here you know are going to be diminished value by rates and think of by the way bitcoin gold certain types of real estate raw land venture capital you know grow stocks where they're putting a lot of cash in now and hoping to get profits down the road so these these rates adjust everything differently but they will adjust the value of all things you know you spoke about bitcoin jamie uh given the kind of volatility that we're seeing there what do you make of it i mean you've always been a bit of a skeptic but uh uh do you do you foresee a significant decline from the levels that we're already at yeah i i wouldn't use the word a bit of a skeptic i would say a total skeptic but that's about a crypto token that you call a cryptocurrency that does nothing we believe in blockchain defy ledgers and some of these tokens that do something so if a token could do something for you like it's part of a smart contract or it gives you information a timely base that you want that's got value i mean we're one of the bigger users of blockchain so uh but what i'm pointing out is that you know at higher rates you have to carry the courses it has no natural income from it and therefore that will affect it yeah you know what impact is politics likely to have you've got midterm elections in the u.s you've of course got the big political event in china and of course the war continues uh which is sort of causing instability across europe at this point in time how are you reading or looking at political developments and geopolitics and the impact and implications it will have on the economy you know uh surprisingly elections normally don't have a lot of impact on the economy at that year but i do think this kind of geopolitical stuff you see now is a sea change of assumptions on what happened so after february 24th you know i think that shattered the illusions of a lot of people that pieces at hand and that national security is kind of a given and so geopolitics it just elevated and of course ukraine did a lot to hurt the relation between china and right and america and so we now the western world the democratic world also has to think through what role it wants to play you know how important to defend democracy in this world how you know are autocratically allowed to get away with certain types of things and you know india's got to figure that out too by the way so i would love to see the western world in a mature humble kind of way get together work with each other create national security for each other around food and energy and other types of trade things you know keep the world safe with democracy and i do think it's important it doesn't be done against anybody it should be done for ourselves and it really has it really should be done together in terms of trading in the world terms of bilateral investment rights opening up each other's countries uh i think we'll be far better if we did that we did it well and i do think you know nations are doing a bit of that and i think president biden has done a good job coalescing some of that to be around ukraine i want to talk to you about digitization and the competitive landscape in light of what we are seeing from uh fintech companies we're seeing that play out in india of course fintech companies not making any money at this point in time but how do you read this and what does that mean uh as far as jpmorgan's owns plans are concerned going forward yeah so we we have tremendous competition okay indian banks india german banks and germany obviously the big banks the united states then we've got shadow banks which are huge they've taken over big part of the mortgage business they took out a big part of direct lending leverage lending in the united states they've taken bar a big part of trading you know you hear about the high frequency traders and payment for where to flow and then your fintech and fintech you got to look at it's a huge amount of investment in it some have already quite successful paypal square strike to name a few others around the fringes data and a whole bunch of other services and they're they're good competition they also have very little regulation relative to someone like us so they have advantages uh uh but a lot of more profitable they're not all going to make it and obviously we can spend a lot of money building great systems some for competition i i would prefer to see more of a level playing field than regulations and then the other thing you didn't mention is big tech i mean you know apple apple now has a p2p buy now pay later credit scoring uh the white label credit card and bank account through goldman sachs and that's a bank they don't have social requirements legal requirements the same amount requirements there are capital requirements of registration requirements transparency requirements you know at one point maybe the regulars will eventually say okay if you do a product the products have a certain type of regulation and uh but anyway we're gonna have all our competition i'm very comfortable about jp morgan but it's gonna be a lot of competition and they're gonna be a lot of winners and losers well we would have loved to talk more about the winners and losers and about your plans but uh we've run out of time jamie it's always a pleasure appreciate you joining us uh here on cnbc tv 18 and we look forward to seeing you back in india soon next time in person keep the faith everybody thank you thanks very much tara at the labor cup in london the swiss maestro 25 year long career boasts of wins that most people could only dream of the 41 year old tennis player was the first person to win 20 grand slam titles he was he has held the world number one spot in tennis for more than any other player barring novak djokovic federer's first major win at wimbledon goes back to the year 2003 when everyone realized the young boy was ready to take the tennis world by storm roger federer rafael nadal and novak djokovic the big three are collectively considered by some to be the three most successful male tennis players of all time after making his mark in being considered the goat or the greatest of all time in the field of tennis federer's last professional match a doubles alongside 22-time grand slam winner rafael nadal at london's o2 the duels plays against francis tai fo and jack sock of team world on the 23rd of september here's a special conversation with cnbc's tanya breyer how hard was it for you to come to this decision and how important was it for you to have your family support and how do you think you're going to feel when you walk off that court here look um at one point you have to take a decision in life and sometimes it's good to have a deadline you know and for me the moment it was taken it was emotional but then after that i was able to to feel relieved and then it got stressful as i was trying to write a letter to the people to let them know that i'm officially retiring because also i carried the weight with me and my team and my friends and family for probably a good two two and a half months so as long you don't want leaks of course to happen because i want to be the first to tell the fans and the people and of course it will be emotional at the very end look it has to be i was always an emotional player and maybe we'll see more of that i don't know i'm just hoping i'm just hoping that i will get through the match somehow roger of course you played with rafa with novak with andy in a golden era of tennis what do you think you'll miss the most about it and also what's been the proudest moment for you personally um i think a proud moment for me has been my longevity um having been there for so long haven't had the chance to just play on all these different courts many many times and live through those emotions being a wimbledon champion obviously is for me a very proud moment being world number one is maybe the ultimate accomplishment so i feel like those were big moments i won the olympic gold as well olympic silver here in london um i won the davis cup as well in lille um so um all the everything i ever asked for happened so um and uh had so many tough opponents you know and uh that i was able to somehow evolve throughout um that was a that was a great feeling as well and just finally roger what's next for you yes um i have a wonderful foundation that i started almost 20 years ago now um so i have lots of work there i'm looking forward to seeing what what the plans are for the future as we always plan in the long term there so that's not going to change for the time being but let's look ahead now we can start to really properly plan and not always be having to be flexible um look uh i'd like to stay in tennis in some way another i'm an ambassador a lot of wonderful partners and brands i'm also involved heavily in on running a shoe company from switzerland so i can always go around and design and help them you know build things which is very creative and very a lot of fun and then i have four children and i need to take care of them i want to take care of them and have a wonderful wife who has supported me throughout so i'm looking forward to to having more time to plan and schedule even though i got a taste of it the last few years since i wasn't on the tour so much anymore but a lot to look forward to i think and with that it is a wrap on this edition of global dialogues we bring you more news and updates on the other side stay tuned
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