저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 투자자의 날(2023.03) 발표 후 Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Barclays 등 기관 리포트를 검토. 발표가 장기 비전은 좋지만 타임라인·로드맵이 부족해 단기 투자자에게 실망을 줬다고 평가. 기관들은 목표가를 유지하며 3세대 플랫폼 원가 50% 절감 가능성을 인정. 본인은 테슬라 장기 강세 입장이며 25년 목표가 500~600달러 제시.
다듬은 글
all right first things we gotta talk at Tesla one of the reasons we have to talk Tesla on this is because almost every institution that attended the Tesla event has released their letter on what their takeaways are for Tesla that is going to be quite interesting to break through we're going to look at Barclays Goldman Sachs and what some of the other institutions are saying in their reports to their clients about the Tesla investor Day event now I love looking at what the institutions are saying because it's not clouded or shrouded in that sort of retail bull thesis generally retail is extremely bullish on Tesla it's probably the stock that is held by most retail investors and it's one of the largest retail held stocks outside of index funds like let's say the S P 500 which boy there are potentially some big risks coming to the S P 500 but with that said I really want to take a look at those institutional reports because the institutional mindset in my opinion is very very important right now we've got plenty of retail capital in Tesla but what is that institutional Capital actually going to flow back into Tesla is it going to be predicated on the market or would investor day have any kind of changing effect on what institutions believe for Tesla we'll determine that in this video now I'd like to also clarify because there are some folks who are making the argument that oh Kevin's being too short-term minded in terms of being frustrated about the Tesla investor Day event and I'd like to address that before we address what the institutions are saying first it's very important to know that the vast majority of people who are affected by Tesla stock are affected on a short-term basis that means employees employees being hired employees just hired employees who are considering working for Tesla in either the manufacturing era in the area in the uh autonomous driving segment in the AI segment and the chips manufacturing or designing segment anyone who wants to work for Tesla or works for Tesla is immediately affected by a decline in the share price of Tesla stock therefore it's really important for Tesla to do everything in their power to make sure short-term headwinds do not create too much of a downtrend for Tesla stock that then becomes self-fulfilling and shortable now Elon Musk obviously and clearly violated this himself in 2022 with his 24 billion dollars of stock sales that highly outpace the 15 billion dollars of retail net purchases that's a problem and obviously led to Tesla's terrible drop to 100 bucks now that may for long-term investors create a fantastic buy the dip opportunity but what it can do is create a demoralizing environment for employees and individual investors who are affected by the short term so it is in my opinion very important that Tesla do whatever they can to organize their presentations in such a way that they're not actually misleading people now don't get me wrong we know in the world of a YouTube YouTube's one of those places where the titles are often dramatic and then we've got to actually get through the content well in the case of Tesla they did exactly what people dislike on YouTube in person they provided an investor day title but what they really did was provide sort of a margin update and an update on how we're going to scale and at the same time reduce costs in the long term with a lack of detail on time frames those were a slap in the face to investors in the short term because without time frames without an organized presentation without exact information on hey here's how all of this coordinates together it's kind of on the World to sort of pick up the pieces and go okay like that sounds good that sounds good okay how can we put this together and how does this align with projections for time frames or when are these actually going to get incorporated into future factories and gigafactories what what are the expectations we should actually start pricing in right without that you're not actually creating an investor Day presentation you're doing more of a hey by the way here's how we're looking at innovating in the future but we've really got little insights in terms of timing or time frames for investors and that's why you think Elon Musk himself said this isn't for investors like shareholders this is actually for investors in earth right for that sustainable Master Plan Three now that's fantastic for a long-term investor don't get me wrong I find myself to be one of the largest long-term focused investors on the platform now some people make fun of me for that and they say oh really you're the flip-flopper guy who've sold stocks in 2022 and then rebought later but the reality is anyone who looks back at that decision and questions that decision is living under a rock they are sticking their head in the sand like a dumb ostrich and is a complete idiot for suggesting that I should not have sold in early 2022 in January and that's exactly what I did and I never bought a single stock while suggesting that I would sell right that I always thought I was going to hold my stocks it wasn't until I changed my opinion that I said oh I'm not buying anymore I've got a big change coming and within 12 hours of me selling my stocks the entire world knew about that that some people like to try to suggest that oh somehow Kevin you know didn't tell the world that uh that he was selling and he was telling people to buy while he was selling that never happened it's a complete lie and that's what I think is so fantastic about YouTube because we can actually document all of that timing and the beauty is that people who suggest I'm short-term focused Miss exactly what I'm actually doing that is I'm so long-term focused I run an active ETF that has almost a 30 allocation to Tesla a substantial portion of my own personal portfolio is invested in Tesla I don't care about the short-term fluctuations I'm saying Tesla is making a mistake and I'm frustrated on the people who are affected by the short term nobody could tell me that oh Kevin bought a Jet because he's short-term focused my jet my plane that I personally signed for is a down payment on what I believe will be a 10 to 50 billion dollar company in the future the jet is me risking my entire net worth and my livelihood today where I could retire and never work again today for an uncertain future 10 to 15 years from now I can't think of anybody more long-term focused than that that's what long-term focus is so in response to anybody who thinks oh Kevin's a frustrated short-term minded retail investor you're a complete because if you actually look at the actions that I take and you see what I describe I don't I I would be hard-pressed to find anybody more long-term focused than what I do and yeah I changed my mind but that's because I changed my mind for what is going to create the best results in the future and I think that's exactly what Tesla's actually doing here small micro flip-flops and adjustments now actually lead to exponentially better results in the future short-term minded individuals forget that small adjustments today expand to massive order of magnitude changes in the future and I think that's what institutions are slowly starting to pick up on and that's why we've got to look at exactly what the institutions are saying and we'll go ahead and start with Morgan Stanley when it comes to Tesla take a look at this so Morgan Stanley essentially in the short term maintains their price target of 220 dollars now we seriously question how the competition can keep up with Tesla now I completely agree with that but I think it's very fascinating that what institutions are doing so far and we've just started with institutions here is they're making it clear that okay how is the competition going to keep up but they're not actually making any kind of changes to their pricing targets now that's likely because the outline that we got at investor day didn't really connect those dots yet at four most investors and it's going to be a while before anybody I think can really model the changes that Tesla is talking about Beyond what's already modeled most of Wall Street is already modeling this idea that okay 7 to 10 million Vehicles by 2030 Tesla thinks 20 million Vehicles we discount that somewhere between 50 to 60 to 70 percent we get to Seven to uh 10 million Vehicles by 2030.
at a 50 cost reduction fantastic we already get a model too right we know that whether the model 2 is a newer smaller vehicle for the Chinese market or whether it's just a newly created model 3 branded as a model 2 that's made with essentially fifty percent uh reduced cost but so in other words I do think it's very very difficult because of the lack of sort of coordinated vision from Tesla's presentation for folks to realize that the small micro changes that are being made the small adjustments so for example if if we're on this trajectory for Tesla or better yet even make it sort of like if that's the trajectory for Tesla right I think it's very difficult for Wall Street to realize oh okay Tesla just did that in terms of an adjustment right that was really what investor day was was sort of that little adjustment like that by the way is how we're revising going forward right and so of course in the short term the Market's like okay that's very difficult for us to understand but the reality is when you look in the long term what happens is if you stay on the trajectory this might be your growth if you continue with the micro adjustments your growth might be like this and then this is actually where the bulk of the value is created in the long term it's when those small micro adjustments actually compound to being something extremely meaningful it's in in my opinion I see this very personally in my life it's like starting my real estate startup househack starting and actively managed ETF uh you know buying a jet that enables me to do social media manage an ETF conduct a deep high level uh and deep dive research so both high level and deep dive research and start what could be in my opinion knock on wood no guarantees a 10 to 50 billion dollar company in the future right house high like those are the little micro adjustments that are happening right now so I actually resonate a lot with Tesla and and the the changes that they're making for the long term and so in case it's not abundantly clear what we heard was fantastic from a long-term point of view in the short term the inflections seem so minor and because they were uncoordinated and because the these long-term benefits were not properly explained I think it was a slap in the face to investors and employees and potentially new employees in the short term the vision of Tesla could have easily been coordinated without actually providing exact details nobody's saying hey you need to guarantee us oh the model 2 was coming out you know January 1st 2025.
nobody's suggesting that that is what Tesla needed to do but coordinating the vision is what was missing from investor day and that's why investor day really in my opinion was essentially clickbait in the long term fantastic we could see the adjustments but for investors in the short term oopsies but anyway let's keep going here with what the institution said so Morgan Stanley suggests that Master Plan 3 entails immense levels of vertical integration and this vertical integration will enable Tesla to iterate far faster and with less waste than other auto manufacturers this is important minimizing that waste is critical even to the point of and institutions are picking up on this as well moving from a 12 to 48 volt architecture Burns less or I should say ways less energy right because it can operate more efficiently with potentially smaller cabling you potentially have less heat that that escapes from the internal architecture of the vehicle and these benefits compound over time they might seem minor in the short term but they compound over time that is actually an idea that lucid has been integrating into their vehicle for a very very long time the idea that we should operate these vehicles at higher voltage voltages so that way we could reduce amperages basic electrical law anyway we believe customers or rather consumers will one day look back at electric vehicles from 2023 the way we look back at cell phones from the 1980s remember Gordon gekko's phone when he was on the beach out east in the movie Wall Street Tesla wants to be the largest manufacturer in the world by some margin with that ambition achieving cost leadership is deterministic in other words without achieving cost uh efficiency yeah end up screwed well that's obvious and that's exactly what Tesla's doing for the long term again they didn't pull that picture together for us but that's okay that's where I'm trying to also will help pull the picture together and I think that's what people and media do that's why I actually think it's very important that we have the social media we have today not mainstream media I think we're all frustrated with most of mainstream media but I think that's why we come to social media is to get the perspective that maybe isn't properly laid out by our government well almost certainly not properly laid out or in this case Tesla we would expect to see most if not all of today's Legacy auto company executive teams study the materials presented today and tour Giga Austin as they have toured Tesla Fremont facilities in the past Innovations brought to Market by Tesla become the industry standard and are ultimately used by all automakers not unlike how Henry Ford was moving the assembly line now this is really interesting because you really have Morgan Stanley again maintaining their price Target and keeping their view of Tesla in line but at the same time they're saying oh my gosh nobody is going to be able to compete with Tesla so this is why we're making this video right to coordinate and sort of consolidate what is Wall Street taking away from this it's also worth noting by the way that shipments from Giga Shanghai climbed to 74 402 and this is 74 402 Vehicles were delivered from Shanghai last month that is up 13 from the prior month it's down off some of the very high numbers we saw at the end of Q4 last year uh but uh but but still finally returning to a larger Trend as that main export facility for Teslas suppliers on watch I actually think this is one of the reasons you saw uh MP materials drop about 13 yesterday was this talk about removing rare earth materials from uh from Tesla's engines was an immediate slap in the face to MP materials and this is where it's it's in my opinion quite ridiculous for people to say that the short-term stock movements or or short-term uh occurrences uh don't matter to stocks they absolutely do I mean look at this you know what Tesla just did to MP materials it's it's not just that the stock fell eleven ten percent ten eleven percent it's not just that you know what Tesla just did to MP material they sent a massive red flag to anyone working at MP material solely focused on Rare Earth minerals that your days may be limited doubt has just been cast on the jobs of anyone working on rare Earths in uh magnet motors which are basically electric motors right electromagnet right electro electric electricity and magnetism are essentially the same Force it's kind of cool actually if you've ever broken a taken apart uh a a motor you'd know that uh it's it's pretty fascinating how how similar they are I mean they're essentially the same Force it's awesome I mean that's how generators work after all right anywho so uh going back to Morgan Stanley over here Morgan Stanley says Tesla's on a mission to further reduce part count mass weight and complexity while bringing more components in-house smaller and less complex wire harnesses fewer silicon carbide chips and the elimination of rare Earths in permanent magnet motors where a few examples provided during investor day on the raw material side of the quiet stream we still haven't seen too terribly much detail in terms of what Tesla exactly wants to do here however what we did see is 20 different Executives across all operational disciplines now Morgan Stanley says no teleprompters in my opinion it's actually incorrect that there were sort of preview screens in front of the presenters it was very obvious that at least one of the engineers was straight up reading from the computer screen in front of front of them and look that's fine but let me just from sort of a media point of view say you could take all of the information from these executives but you need someone else there to consolidate or to simplify what they're saying for example this is how you could make the presentation so much easier you have one person talking about let's say full self-driving right and they go into the weeds of full self-driving this this this and then you have somebody else it could even be musk himself but anyone somebody with a media mindset who comes out and says now those are the details here is the impact of what that means what that means is we believe we are five years at least five years ahead of the competition we believe that because it's taken X number of hours to train our neural Nets an X number of miles driven this is where the competition is this is where we are now we also think we're X percent closer to achieving full self-driving for all vehicles without a driver even present to where within the next X number of years we think we can release a vehicle with no steering wheel now no guarantees yet but we are you know 95 of the way there or whatever right I'm making up some of the numbers or leaving them as variables because that's for Tesla to do but what they need is a translator basically and that's either going to be Tesla or it's going to be potentially social media right but it's more difficult for it to be social media because we don't have all of the extra answers to create the impacts from that information it's sort of like here's the platter of information overload and nobody's really tying it together in terms of okay how does this actually Stack Up Now how how close are we now to FSD right we don't know because we didn't have somebody consolidate that information that's my frustration with Tesla don't get me wrong the information is fantastic what happened is fantastic but by skimping out on somebody who can consolidate the message much the way that Apple does at an apple presentation will you end up losing and you hurt people and investors in the short term that's why I think it's hilarious when people say oh Kevin's just a short-term mind investor I I don't even need to continue to defend that uh it's it's so ludicrous nobody risks their entire net worth for a startup if they're not a long-term minded individual nobody throws everything uh in their reputation onto that startup or an actively managed ETF or or you know a publicly flip-flops and gets the world to hate them even though they're doing what ultimately was the right thing nobody does that if they have a short-term minded Outlook right if I had a short-term minded Outlook I'd care more about subscribers and pleasing everybody when the reality is what I do is I provide my real opinion whether that's on politics or stocks I'm gonna keep doing that anyway uh let's see here the non-avail of the model two I mean I I didn't expect a model 2 to get presented either neither they did Barclays neither did Morgan Stanley there were a lot of people who did uh there was the cannibalization argument that Barclays talked about that they were not going to do this because they could potentially cannibalize sales in the future that's fine uh this this is not that big of a deal it would have been nice though to have sort of a rap of okay got it so gen 3 50 less cost how about like at least some kind of guide like are we looking at end of the decade the beginning of the 2030s are we looking at you know 2027 like how about I mean this could have in my opinion been as simple as this you could have one single slideshow uh a little and and this is this is going to be my estimate by the way right so it's this is going to be my my speculation here but I think you could have had uh one slide that would have said something like this here's our roadmap we think uh a semi-truck uh full scale by 2025 cyber truck uh full scale uh let's put that actually right here and we'll call this by let's say 2024.
uh cyber truck first delivery 2023 and then what you could say something like this is Mexico Giga 2024 uh complete right and then you go over here and you say Mexico Giga uh would be let's say uh ramping 2025. uh Mexico Giga uh potentially releases first you know next gen vehicle Q4 2025 Mexico Giga ramps next gen vehicle 2026.
uh you know uh first first Optimus Optimus robots on a floor by let's say 2027 right like this this kind of road map is something that would not have been very difficult for Tesla to give in my opinion unfortunately that wasn't given and again it doesn't have to be perfect like we could we could say look we can't guarantee this result but at least some sort of vision of how does this all stack together how does the Mexico gigafactory fit in to the plan you know we heard it was announced but we don't know how it fits into the plan now we think we know we think that batteries are going to manufacture get manufactured at Giga Texas and then potentially go to Vehicles assembled in the Mexico gigafactory at a lower cost maybe with Optimus robots and at the same time cheaper Mexican labor and when you combine that you get the recipe for potentially a model 2 with the parallel processing that we learned about rather than serial processing that's by the way is a very important word so if you're a Tesla investor you really have to know this so see a parallel processing is basically taking the car and moving it from Station to Station to Station right that's what cars do now the uh oh sorry this is this is a series in series processing my mistake that's in series processing in parallel processing is you're taking different components of the vehicle and your manufacturing on the you're essentially putting these together at the same time so if this direction here represents time then rather than the product moving through time the product at the same time is manufactured you know in in just separate parts so parts right essentially the idea here is that now you can have robots work on different parts of the vehicle at the same time you assemble it like Legos and you cut the time down substantially that's required for manufacturing these right now unfortunately uh it doesn't seem like that Tesla Optimus robot is particularly close especially since what individuals have posted online is a close-up of the robot hand here and we do see that the Optimus you know grabs something here but what's quite odd is when you look at this closely it actually looks like this uh this hose here uh it's a it's a hose sleeve for what looks like maybe you know I don't know 14 16 gauge wiring you can see that gauged wiring right here it's very small I mean this is like sort of the typical wiring that you might see uh for for uh you know up to a 120 volt circuit or something like that but could be even smaller but anyway it's covered by this hose right here uh and it looks like this is some sort of uh actuator here or or Servo so to speak and uh the idea here is that the Tesla Optimus can already unplug this and it's sort of a way of maybe unembarrassing the Optimus presentation the last time we had sort of the Optimus event where you know it it was still impressive to see okay Real World Vision is coming to robots we know like this is fantastic but it's still it wasn't the best presentation right and so this video is sort of an attempt to uh maybe fix that by showing us a robot that that appears to be able to walk and and position its hand where this rope is or this hose is the problem is this hose begins to move well below well before the Optimus actually makes contact with the hose which actually implies that there's an individual off camera to the left over here who's actually pulling the hose out of the actuator for the robot uh and this is really more click bait here from Tesla ready for this watch very slowly see look at that that cable pulls out before see look at right here right here there's no contact made by the hands yet right the hands are not really I mean we can't tell that this is actually being contacted yet yeah look right right here okay there we go how how does this actually start pulling back we don't know now some now maybe maybe we're just getting a bad angle here but why does it look as though somebody else is potentially pulling it Maybe not maybe maybe that fingertip is a lot thicker than we think it is or there's a larger piece of metal that's sort of the inside of the hand here inside of the finger that is actually lifting this but there's some rumor that this is actually a person who's pulled this plug out because the plug actually seems to pull out well before the hand does anything look at that now on this side so I've been at I've had your attention here now I want your attention to go to this plug over here pay attention to the plug watch the plug come out before because I see your comments some of you saying oh it lifts it up okay yeah maybe maybe the metal stick right here uh or or maybe it's possible Right but now I want you to tell me if this plug coming out is possible so pay attention out to this plug okay ready for this watch the plug come out before the hand moves to the left and plug plugs come in right here plug comes out right here is it possible that the plug comes out because the finger puts so much pressure on the hose that the plug starts coming out yes it's possible but it looks like the plug is just floating out of there before the hand actually really pulls right and the other thing now part three is watch this motion where the hose gets joint almost before the hand pulls back okay look at this in this Frame that you're about to see yoink it's it's almost as if it's happening before the hand is actually appropriately moving back now we're not sure maybe it is possible it is possible that there's a lot of tension on this piece right here and if there's a lot of tension on this piece uh and on the hose maybe it comes flinging out when there's enough pressure put on this by the fingers to pull it out of the socket maybe maybe but then again then again we do know that there has been a reputation of Tesla to kind of show things that aren't really working yet just for the excitement Factor now in the future it will work so it's fine it's not a big deal but again what would have been nice would have been a little bit more Vision around the idea of hey look you know this is where we've gotten to now with the Optimus we think the Optimus is going to be on the floor of a factory doing stuff like this or at least in Bay data as soon as 2024 right like you don't need to give us guarantees you don't have to give us absolute exacts but put the puzzle together for people that's what's missing and that's because Tesla's not investing in a media person or a media Department really here right it's sort of just like here we'll put it all on the plate and we'll sort of let social media or the mainstream media run rampant anyway let's keep going here with some of the investor information so we did learn that the uh the powertrain might go down to about a thousand a dollar cost per vehicle electric architecture uh this is where they talk about a 16x reduction in lost power by moving potentially from a 12 volt architecture to 48 volt architecture it's important to know that when they say here reducing current uh Factor by 4X that does not actually mean really anything the only thing that matters is the potential lack of waste because if you increase the voltage you will increase the yeah or if you increase the voltage you will decrease the amperage but the wattage is the same the power used is the same the only thing you save is potentially having a more efficient wiring system that releases less heat so potentially that's where you save the energy but from a formulaic point of view just because you increase the voltage does not make the system more efficient it's just in potentially the fact that there's less heat that's important think about actually why Europe uses the 240 volt architecture it's not like when you go plug in a microwave in Europe it's using more power than American uh uh microwaves it's using the same wattage a thousand watt microwave over there is the same as a thousand watt microwave over here that's important to remember the difference though is if you have more efficient wiring you could potentially use thinner wires because they don't need to be as overheat rated and that's how you could potentially make building and construction more efficient by having the entire property constructed out of a 240 volt wiring system it also means you have 240 volt plugs everywhere so if you want to plug in a washing machine or an electric dryer or a stove you don't have to run a different set of cabling for that like you do here in America now it's not to be confused with people who take an American hair dryer that's designed for 120 a volt system and plug it into a 240 volt system with a converter in Europe yeah that thing's going to glow and look like it's using a whole lot more power that's because it's drawing twice as much power as it's designed for it okay but again the efficiency here is is really not in the formulaic change it's potentially in that the wiring would would lead to a reduction in sort of wasted energy okay that's fine again lucid's been doing that robot was able to provide a perform menial tasks as originally intended that's fine we saw that and we just commented on this I did like the estimate that there would be potentially more than one humanoid for every human at the factory I did think that was actually fantastic and I really enjoyed that uh that that sort of forecast so I'm going to go through just some some more of those the main parts of Wall Street here mega pack can connect to any grid globally it's the most energy dense Solution on the market at upwards of 300 megawatts per acre megawatt hours mega pack is 2x more energy dense than a traditional power plant fantastic should Tesla be able to hit the cost targets outlayed today when coupled with OP X discipline we find it hard to see a way in which Legacy automakers can compete with Tesla in terms of EV profitability that right here is a fantastic line Morgan Stanley is saying we find it hard to find a way for it for legacies to compete with Tesla we already know that Ford is not expected to be profitable until 2026 and they're already miserably failing GM is probably also not profitable uh and we're not even talking about profitable we're talking about wildly unprofitable right it's kind of like rivian when we looked at the rivian numbers they are spending on a net basis three hundred thousand dollars to make an 82 000 car as of their Q4 earnings on a gross basis they are spending two hundred thousand dollars per vehicle to make an eighty two thousand dollar car it's incredible okay but anyway uh so they are maintaining their price target of 220 for 2023 pretty low no no changes here on price Target from Morgan Stanley uh we've got Bank of America suggesting that the presentation was a little light on details they're also maintaining their 25 uh 225 Target uh it's worth noting that again when they talk about being light on details they're really talking about uh combining the vision where like the dates that I talked about I think are actually realistic the dates that I gave but Tesla should be the one putting that Vision out so that way we know what are they working towards I can guess all day long but what are they working towards it's kind of like when Elon Musk poo pooed the idea of the copy and paste that's fine but that's the first time we've seen him poo poo that idea okay fine don't copy and paste make every gigafactory different fine then maybe that aligns with the idea that maybe the Mexico gigafactory is for the model too maybe there's another gigafactory that's for the Optimus robot right and that the gigafactories are just basically tuned to different purposes maybe that's why Elon Musk seem to kind of shake his head at that idea that's fine but again immediate person could combine all those details that's why it's middle finger for short term purposes long term I mean I I don't think I don't I I would venture to say there's nobody more bullish uh on on YouTube at least uh uh than me so uh Sandy Monroe uh now what's interesting is he's extremely bullish but at least when I had my last interview with him and I'm going to talk to him this April about that uh likely when we meet together is he was was an argue he was he was Pro not investing in uh Tesla stock uh during the time of my interview which maybe ended up being a good thing I don't think that anyone could have predicted that Elon Musk was going to dump as much as he did for Twitter but uh but it'll be interesting to sort of get his updated perspective on that so uh um Sandy Monroe said something very interesting though he says uh he says and this is why I want to ask him he says he's putting his money not booting his money he says I'm putting my money on uh Tesla as model 2 the 25 000 vehicle basically being Like the Model T and the beetle not an expensive luxury car but a mass-produced style of car that everybody can afford that was the idea of the Model T that was the idea of the Volkswagen Beetle that everybody could afford it and Sandy thinks that's uh that's likely to be essentially the model too and we're not clear if that'll be a smaller vehicle but anyway uh the Bank of America maintaining their 225.
let's jump into Barclays three Barclays all right let's go to Goldman Sachs first so here's Goldman Sachs the bottom line is we believe the event the event should increase investor confidence in Tesla's ability to reduce cost by 50 with its next-gen platform however we believe many investors were hoping for more specifics on when a third gen vehicle could begin shipping and therefore the lack of clarity beyond the comment that they're working as fast as they can could be viewed as a disappointment to some I agree that's exactly problem again the content fantastic the summary bad now unfortunately their 12-month price Target here is 200 so they actually see more near-term downside now I think that's kind of remarkable uh because they actually think and this blows my mind they actually think that Tesla is going to grow EPS negatively in 2024 3.
this year they think Tesla's EPS will be negative in 2023. okay all right whatever uh and then and then go back to maybe 50 to 20 growth in the next few years uh so you know somebody here nightclub says I don't think they want to put out a date because it's never met and it hurts investors I disagree with that highly I actually think it's very important to put out a date because it actually creates the pressure to achieve close to that date right if you come out and say let me put it this way okay think about it this way everybody does this everybody on a human level can do this oh I'm gonna start working out and I'm gonna get buff or whatever or I'm gonna exercise more and we tell ourselves that yet when do we actually do it we generally don't right most of us don't and it's just the way it is where we go once in a while oh we're going to eat better right well if we actually set a goal I will have lost X weight by X date well now you measure your performance towards that date and even if you miss it you're more likely to have performed substantially better leading up to that date than if you didn't actually set a goal date setting a goal date and communicating a goal date now actually unifies Tesla staff at all right might be ambitious but let's try to make it happen when you just do ah we're doing our best you take the pressure off you should never take the pressure off it's like my goals with house hack my goal with house hack is to and again no guarantees is to IPO an extremely profitable company that could be in my opinion worth billions of dollars in the future before the end of the decade before I I don't want to get into the 2030s without it having IPO now I don't know what's going to happen who knows maybe there'll be a market crash in 2029 and it's not going to make sense I have no idea what's going to happen right but I'm setting goals and so I think it's important to set goals and then hold yourself accountable to those if you miss that's okay then just provide a new update what changed how are we doing in an adjusted time frame I think setting time frames is actually extremely important and this this idea that oh well you know they always miss their time frame so let's just stop doing time frames is a ludicrous example uh or a ludicrous suggestion for for goal setting I mean that basically says don't set goals because you miss all your goals anyway you know don't don't try to strive and Achieve something because you're gonna fail anyway that's a defeatist point of view that's the worst way to look at it time frames are very very very important uh goal setting very very very very very important you know send McGuire here says Tesla and Time Flame frames and and says uh clown clown clown that's fine you you can argue all you want that Tesla clowns with its time frames but setting time frames and goals is extremely important anyway Goldman Sachs gives a little bit of a summary of some of the things that we saw you know where we're going to see reductions in fossil fuel we use the big one getting the grid to Renewables the next big one EVS I actually thought it was very interesting that moving planes and boats 2 EV would actually only lead to about a five percent reduction in fossil fuels showing you that most of the reduction of fossil fuels comes from moving the grid to Renewables and then moving EVS to Renewables I thought that was really interesting because like I would love to use less jet fuel like first of all it's expensive uh and and you know from uh from like uh from from the point of view of efficiency I mean it's fast but it burns a lot of fuel you know how much fuel a Boeing 747 Burns so when when people ask hey how many miles to the gallon does a Boeing 747 get you actually have to flip it around it's actually about I believe when I last look I have to get fact check it's it's two to five but I'm gonna go with five because I think that's what it is it's about five gallons per mile for a Boeing 747 to fly around that's crazy five gallons per mile for a Boeing 747 to fly around right very very so so I initially thought like wow okay I thought like Freight and and planes would would actually be a great place for efficiency but probably because there are so many more cars and so many more grids that's actually not uh the way to look at it now fortunately I see what I I'm not trying to like Pat myself on the back but I purposefully wanted to get a smaller plane to be as efficient as possible I could have spent more money and had a plane that's larger sit more people but I don't need more people in it uh my fuel burn on my plan is about 165 gallons uh per hour and that works out to roughly about 3.5 miles per gallon uh so not great it's pretty low but then again you're going 565 miles per hour roughly at Max Speed there's some takeoff considerations there and it changes some of the averages a little bit uh but but a larger plane that we were also considering last year especially would have gotten about one mile per gallon uh yeah what would have gotten about one mile per gallon so we're like yeah let's try to be we get it let's try to be as efficient as possible but anyway I just mentioned that because I think it's interesting I don't think people generally think about like how many miles per gallon planes actually get uh and uh and then at the same time I thought it was very interesting how uh moving uh planes and boats to sustainability full sustainability would only lead to a five percent reduction fossil fuels that was interesting I get it like on a per vehicle basis it's not as great but from from uh from an overall uh energy sustainability standard it's probably the last place to get innovated uh because it has the least impact I thought that was interesting anyway here we talk about balancing the serial line approach versus the parallel approach how that could potentially lead to 40 44 better operator density and 30 better space-time efficiency uh some other efficiencies here we didn't really get any kind of autonomy targets talked a little bit about charging and wanting to build more talk about software Mega packs uh we talked about implications here we go Goldman Sachs bottom line is we believe this event should increase investor confidence in Tesla's ability to reduce costs by 50 with its next-gen platform given the breadth and depth of Tesla's team and how its vertically integrated model allows it to optimize on both cost and performance however we believe many investors were hoping for more specifics on when a third generation vehicle could be shipping and therefore the lack of clarity beyond the comment that they're working as fast as they could uh be in the next couple of years is likely to be viewed as a disappointment by some we believe a couple of years would imply the 2025 time frame and we continue to believe later in 2025 would be more probable probable I I actually agree with about a 2026 for a model 2 time frame I think that's very interesting so let's see somebody here writes MPGs for older people okay uh looking back can you explain while by selling in January 22 was the right thing when you had to pay taxes and gains since buying back uh has a tab blah blah blah okay so uh first of all the absolutely the best decision I could have made because I allocated my portfolio from a large exposure to money losing companies to highly pricing power Centric companies uh that in my opinion have such high free cash flow that even in a recession we are going to be able to avoid real valuation compression now things will be volatile but I would have lost way more money had I not sold in January of 2022 and told everybody about that transparently I mean twice as much it would have been it would have been extremely painful now again I'm not saying it was perfect but I did my best to get away from money losing companies and that was the absolutely the right decision now when you talk about taxes and I made this clear for me my tax situation is different than other people I had the opportunity to buy a plane for 13 million dollars which eradicated all of my capital gains from selling real estate income and stocks thank you tax system and specifically Donald Trump who in 2017 through the tax cut and jobs act expanded the accelerated depreciation to 100 for planes yeah so anyway okay uh then we've got one more over here so we've got Barclays it's a fair question uh uh let's see here uh 2022 saved you from losing so much money on those small company yeah small companies got wrecked I mean there's some companies that went down you know 90 95 and these are companies that I warned hey like you don't want to hold these suckers in a recession now some people get mad at me they're like you you said that was a good stock I'm like yeah unless we go into a recessionary environment that was like was pretty clear about that but that's okay people want to have somebody to blame and that's fine so Tesla investor day master plan 3 leveraging Tesla DNA to achieve Mass scale so I I don't want to read every part of the Barclays one here so we're just going to go to some of the highlights Tesla's looking at a balance of parallel and serial production we talked about that uh I thought this was interesting they talk about demonstrating bench strength by by showing all of these these 13 additional people who generally don't show up on uh on earnings calls so I thought that was very interesting and we expect the Mexico plant to use battery cells produced in Austin to make sure they achieve a full tax credits from the inflation reduction act now this was also interesting they talk about potential upside on deliveries they talk about the idea that Tesla actually produced 277 000 approximately units through q1 2023 so far and that's about two-thirds of their 20 their q1 estimate of 423 vehicles and that suggests a modest ahead of estimate scale although we are kind of like two-thirds through the season so but anyway they say that's because of the production impacts from the Chinese New Year and the slowdown in January could actually mean they'll end up beating production estimates for q1 good to know that's a little bullish on q1 earnings right there uh limited color provided on financials was disappointing for some optimistic tone about uh about uh raw materials yeah and I think that's really a big big argument there is that Tesla's not terribly worried about uh you know this uh this the the future of availability of lithium and otherwise thinks uh they'll end up uh they'll end up being just fine essentially on the Commodities Factor so I think that's quite fascinating uh and quite useful so I think that gives us sort of a a deep dive clarification and summary from not only institutions but also for me on Tesla I could not be more bullish until I've shown my price targets for Tesla plenty of times I'm looking at well over 500 in that 500 to 600 range you could say 525 to keep it simple for 2025.
I think it's a phenomenal investment uh going forward obviously I you know I I have a real estate startup I do a lot of crazy things uh that you know look crazy now but I think we're going to be awesome in the long term but um yeah I mean I'm a big fan so I I want to make that as clear as possible
Comments 0