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연준 전 이사 Rick Mishkin은 과거 16개 사례상 중앙은행 긴축 시 대개 경기침체가 왔다며 침체 가능성이 매우 높다고 주장. 1980년대 볼커식 긴축 사례를 들어 연준이 피벗하면 신뢰를 잃는다고 강조. 영상 진행자는 5년 기대인플레이션 반등, 10년물 금리 4% 재돌파를 근거로 불안정한 상승(bumpy ride) 시나리오를 제시하며 3/10 고용, 3/14 CPI, 3/22 FOMC를 주목. 부동산은 바닥이 늦춰질 것으로 전망. 테슬라는 175달러 부근 지지 기대.
다듬은 글
now let's talk about the likelihood of recession what just happened in the Eurozone what are other folks as saying and what's going on with five-year break evens what's the disaster happening today here on March 2nd and what do I think about stocks bonds real estate helocs we're gonna go through all of that in this video but first we're gonna jump on over here we're gonna listen to CNBC and this likelihood of recession being extremely high per former fed Governor let's listen in you want to bring in former fed Governor Frederick Michigan he's now a Columbia University professor and a CNBC contributor and Rick it's really good to see you it's been a while since we've gotten the chance to talk to you you've got a new paper that's out and it basically says that the FED is damned if they raise rates damned if they don't you want to explain that well I don't know if I put it quite that way but the bottom line is that uh in this paper which we we presented the U.S monetary policy Forum that uh one of the things we did is we looked at the history and then we actually did some economic modeling and the history says you look at 16 uh uh uh uh cases of where central banks actually tightened uh interest rates when in fact they had to get inflation down and this is in many countries not just the US in every single case you got a recession uh and so uh you know maybe this time is different but uh that's usually dangerous thinking so just on that basis alone uh the likelihood of a recession is extremely high and this is particularly true also from a economic theory Viewpoint when a central bank Gets behind the curve as the FED certainly did they made a made a bunch of mistakes uh particularly in 2021 which as you might know I've been on CNBC uh since April of 2021 being very critical of the pen on this when when you get behind the curb in order to get inflation back under control you have to raise rates a lot and in fact you inevitably have a recession so that the you know this is just life uh the pet is actually doing the right thing now they've actually gotten uh uh uh on board to do what they have to do they stop being gradual they stop being they were not preempted they now are uh but the bad news is uh that uh that uh you got to get the economy to slow down in order to get inflation down when it's actually uh burst up in a way that it has recently well Rick let me let me just say there are other people who look at what you're talking about in history where feds try and raise rates and inevitably we wind up in a recession they say it's just because some people will say it's because the banks will raise interest rates for too long go too far as some people are arguing our Central Bank is doing right now there are people calling for a pause saying wait and look around and see the lag effect before you continue to raise rates at additional Paces um what do you say back to that uh I this is super dangerous thinking so uh uh one of the things we look at in the paper is uh we look at a situation which had a lot of parallels now which was the vocal disinflation uh and many people you know folk is a huge hero uh many people don't really remember what went on there the Federal Reserve when in October 79 after voker became chair uh raised interest rates to very high levels uh and uh 17 actually was pretty high level uh and then a recession started and they backed off uh the result was that inflation did not come down expected inflation did not come down uh and in fact uh uh uh there was no ability to control inflation the FED had lost its credibility and now weakened it uh but to vocals the credit he then realized that this was a mistake and then the FED really took out the baseball bat collaborate heads Big Time raised uh federal funds rate to over 20 percent uh and then finally it took several years of very high interest rates than to get inflation down so uh it is super dangerous thinking to think that the FED should pivot uh that uh when central banks have done that they haven't completed their job they lose credibility and particularly important is when you've actually gotten behind the curve you have to re-establish credibility and therefore you have to be tough now it's true that you might go too far Central Banking by the way is not an easy business it's uh there's a lot of art to it there is science uh you know uh economists have contributed to that science of monetary policy but a lot is Art and so you never quite get it perfect but on the other hand uh picking that you need to back off because you're too worried about a recession is what produces much worse recessions than otherwise occur people forget that the recession that occurred after the vocal disinflation was actually the most severe in the post-war period in fact the unemployment rate went to above what it did during the global financial crisis uh so uh this is really uh something that you really don't while inflation was all right yeah so okay what did we get out of this well first of all yes the likelihood of recession is High I mean at this point it seems like a recession is a foregone conclusion it'd be really weird if we didn't get a recession because every kind of signal you could look at that's recessionary suggesting recession hey maybe we will get a recession I personally don't think it's that big of a deal whether we have a recession or not I think what actually matters most is the depth of a recession but what did he say that we could really take away from here and how does this sort of echo what we're seeing at the Federal Reserve well the biggest concern that Jerome Powell keeps talking about at the Fab is this idea that they would potentially cut rates and then have to raise rates again because that could lead to what Jerome Powell calls an unanchoring of inflation expectations and lead to a substantially worse recession because basically they would have to raise rates a lot higher that's exactly what this former fed Governor just mentioned uh and uh you know it's it's the biggest issue I think that we Face going forward is exactly that a Breaking of inflation expectations and unfortunately even though I I like to be a bullish I have to say this chart right here is bearish this right here on screen now is a chart of uh inflation expectations it is the five-year inflation uh expectations chart if I go ahead and draw a line over here and uh we just sort of look at where we are right now all the way back up to 2.7 I mean look at this inflation expectations went down to under about 2.15 on the five-year Break Even we've just gone straight up uh since the end of January and into Feb here we are now sitting at the same levels of inflation expectations that we saw in October and as a result we are seeing the 10-year treasury yield right back over four percent which is horrible for Real Estate uh people thought for a moment that uh I mean and you can sort of align it with the uh the 10-year or the five-year break even over here people thought over here in December and January that's it inflation has conquered uh the 10-year treasury yield is plummeting we're down to 3.38 well now after some of the hot data that we've gotten in January and some of the stagflationary data that we got yesterday and today this isn't good remember yesterday we got pmis that suggested manufacturing uh orders are are cut in a contractionary territory but all of a sudden The Institute for supply side management suggests prices being paid are in an expansionary territory in other words prices are going up again so now you're really looking at stagflation you could look at this morning's report as well from the Eurozone the Eurozone this morning reported 8.5 headline inflation that's on a 20 country inflation estimate 8.5 headline that's down from 8.6 which is great but sort of a slow decline uh the expectation was 8.2 so you've actually come in higher than expectations but the problem was that core can came in higher again not only did core come in above expectations but it actually Rose from the prior report the prior report was 5.3 percent came up to 5.6 so you actually have a lot of ammunition that you are giving to the Bears right now suggesting this inflation fight is not over in fact that's why you have people like this David Einhorn guy who's jumping on saying he's negative the stock market and bullish on bonds milk the yield so to speak basically he was shorting the market all last year and now he's suggesting hey you should still be short the market so how does this play in with with the sort of Nike Swoosh recovery thesis well I think all of it comes down to the dates that you have to write down and the dates are very simple it's March 10th 14th and 22nd those are the dates you want to pay attention to because we're going to get the rigged I mean the jobs report on the 10th then we're gonna get a CPI on the 14th and then we'll get the f OMC on the 22nd and so far the leading data suggesting it's probably going to be hotter than expected and that either means inflation is becoming uncontrolled which would be the worst case scenario or inflation is just going to be hotter for longer and so that's where we have to sort of evaluate okay what does that mean from an investor point of view right well I think we can write that down as as basically three scenarios so if if we have if we continue to have disinflation which right now seems to be going away well that's obvious right that's basically just stocks right up stocks that's that's very simple uh especially growth stocks uh and even profitless companies one of the reasons by the way because Arc invest absolutely killed it in January uh and you know just I don't want to like blanket statement Arc invest and say you know profitless companies are bad I think there are some fantastic companies they invest in there's some companies they invest in I don't want to invest in this is not not any kind of limit but they did very very well in January because if you can confirm a disinflationary narrative not only will stocks go up but you'll definitely see a a spike in Risk especially profit list companies now one of the reasons I personally have been this is a personal financial advice for you right but this is just sort of broad uh Financial commentary you can even say Financial advice it's just not personalized right um you know one of the reasons I've been a big fan of keeping some more cash on the side not not a lot you know 10 something like that and uh only exposing myself to PP you know pricing power kind of stocks and stocks with high free cash flow is because of scenario number two so scenario number one might be the disinflation narrative scenario number two is the uh the sort of uh bumpy the bumpy ride scenario right uh bumpy ride where basically you have inflation that stays higher for longer so inflation inflation higher for longer but but slowly trending down right but slowly down trending so the channel is down so to speak but it's it it's taking a little longer right and then of course you have scenario number three which is the worst case scenario and this is your Paul volcker scenario where basically the FED has lost control uh loss of control that's your worst case scenario obviously right I don't actually believe any of the data we're seeing right now is reminiscent of a loss of control even those five-year break evens right this is not screaming loss of control let me hide myself for a moment over here in March and April this was the market saying oh my God we're losing control right this here was the market saying holy crap we're screwed okay so if this is loss of control over here let's let's write that down so it's annotated and it's maybe a little bit more clear so let's put a little background on this there we go okay good so if this right here is loss of control and we'll go ahead and drop that right here then right here is probably your disinflation right this is your scenario number one this is your scenario number three well what the market is telling you right now is that yes we are trending towards loss of control but really where we're sitting is at the bumpy ride level right bumpy ride uh and and so that's that's where I would align myself where I am I should aligning myself right now with the bumpy ride thesis and for me the bumpy ride thesis says okay inflation is going to be higher for longer so how do I invest with inflation that's higher for longer but trending down well nothing's changed you know people say I'm the biggest flip-flopper ever and yeah that's true but there are also a lot of things I am I'm very consistent on and and for me even with the data we're getting so far I still believe in that that sort of Nike uh a swoosh it's just going to be more bumpy uh sort of more turbulent than expected and I do believe that means more pain for real estate for longer so it sort of delays your bottom for Real Estate with the exception of Miami I mean Miami is just absolutely killing it and I think that's just sort of because so many people have been moving to Miami but anyway uh you know what is obviously the risk so what happens now we have to ask ourselves what happens if uh the 10th 14th are bad right so if these two dates are bad well then what happens is uh there will be massive fear between the 14th to 22nd you'll have massive fear between the 14th to the 22nd because we'll be worried about 50 BP from fed which won't happen uh but but the markets will be very worried about that and will be worried about a verbal spanking right that's that's where the worries will really be from so if we have now now if we have a really uh but but okay let me put this way a somewhat bad a somewhat hot 10th uh 14th won't necessarily mean we're in a scenario three Paul volcker right a somewhat hot 10th or 14th just reiterates bumpy ride which to me reiterates pricing power stocks right if uh like for me to be really concerned real concern like serious concern like oh my God we need to change strategies potentially or like have a little bit more of a cash allocation or whatever like yes the sell word right real concern would would be an explosion in uh in inflation right and and where do you get this you get this in the uh wage uh uh uh sort of wage data on wage growth on the 10th and then you get it in obviously the CPI report uh and this would be a breakdown in core uh which is possible that you get that especially as maybe used car prices pop back up so uh really we're probably if if sort of I drew a spectrum here and uh in my opinion I put us at you know zero which is full on disinflation and 100 which is full on Paul volcker you're screwed uh I would probably put us uh right about here which is about at the 40 level so slightly like really heavily in the bumpy ride Zone but slightly closer to disinflation than closer to Paul volcker and that's simply because of leading leading wage data that we're seeing right a leading wage data about wages coming down on the supply of labor skyrocketing what earnings calls are saying what forecasts are saying and really as long as we end up with the bumpy ride scenario recession or not is not going to be that big of a deal it's scenario number three that's bad because that's going to be basically depressive like that that would be terrible I mean this is really where unemployment skyrockets right so scenario number three is depressive uh scenario number one is just basically the moon and then where we are is just probably the very wide middle which is quite a bumpy ride and so those are my sort of expectations going forward uh and and some commentator here about these massive fears I I really do not believe uh the FED has has any interest in in going to 50 Beyond maybe just yapping about uh a 50 like oh yeah open to it you know whatever they say crap like that all the time uh I don't expect that because in my opinion it's too much of a credibility shot in the foot uh suggesting that uh that uh you know they they have once again failed uh so uh you know somebody here writes if we had a very hot inflation report 50 BP will happen but in fact it doesn't matter if they go 25 or 50 all the hikes they have done already are not yet reflected in the economy get ready for a clapping yeah I mean you're not wrong right there is still a lag I think we would have to have a substantially hot uh 10th and 14th report for a 50 kind of clapping recessions can be natural and needed I don't mind a recession I mind the damage being done by pretending we can avoid it forever yeah exactly it's kind of like just go through your medicine take your medicine and go through it you know let the Staples Get Wrecked and go from there uh let's see here inflation inflation striba then okay basically the government's to blame for inflation because they spend too much damn money and maybe if the government stops spending so much damn money uh we'd have less inflation well yeah that's a really good point because not only uh is is that true uh but you know we're still providing massive stemi checks right it's just going to electric vehicle companies and Chip companies now so uh Nick T also just retweeted an article uh about uh CPI running a little bit higher than pce but there's this expectation that maybe those will flip uh this year I don't know how much that really matters but he basically posted a couple screenshots here uh oh look they talk about the wedge how cool uh but anyway it's really just the difference between CPI and PC and really the thought is that CPI might fall faster than PC I don't terribly care uh you know which one's falling faster whatever the fed's preferred method obviously is looking at pce and what they're saying is here the rate of falling of CPI is faster than PC which is great you know it sort of reiterates the uh disinflationary idea but uh let's be real we're still um we're we're still dealing with one heck of a bumpy ride let's put it this way I wouldn't want to be on uh you know this this sort of like if this Market were a plane you wouldn't really want to be on it because you'd be very uncomfortable you'd probably get motion sickness and and uh and want to vomit now how does that actually relate to us holding stocks well fortunately there's no motion sickness there maybe where there is some motion sickness is the fact that the new you know yesterday we talked about this guy Goolsby who now is the president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank apparently the way he was hired was a company was basically contracted called Diversified Search Group and that Diversified search group was put in basically hired to find a new president for the Chicago fed and the person that was hired was actually the director's husband at the Diversified search group so in English a lady worked at a recruitment firm that was hired by the FED to find a new president and she's like you know would be perfect for this job my husband kind of interesting anyway that gives you a little bit of a maybe some Jade for what's going on with the FED but you know they are they're just human too they don't really know what the heck's going on that these are things that I'm paying attention to to help me uh to sort of help guide me uh but again you know uh look would I be throwing my money into bonds or savings probably if if I was wanting to buy a lot of real estate yes absolutely I'd probably be all in on on bonds and savings I just milked the yield until I was ready to buy real estate uh you know I and I do think with the skyrocketing of the 10-year treasure yield they're still paying a substantial amount of pain unfortunately ahead of us you know you look at the bond yields right now my goodness skyrocketed this morning it's up seven bips look at this you're right four point almost 07 on the 10-year treasury I mean you zoom out on this I think we're at the highest level since like October or November now yeah yeah look at this we briefly went to about 4.2 in October over here but boy this right here was where you started getting the the idea that oh real estate's bottoming and people starting to buy again yeah well they're about to get spanked uh yikes so uh you know hey look if I wanted to buy real estate I'd be standing by but I still maintain uh and and we'll see you know I might have to change my mind after the 10th to the 14th but at this moment I still maintain substantially the Nike Swoosh idea uh even though you know markets are again going to respond I expect quite volatile absolutely anyway uh to uh to the next few weeks because there'll be so much essentially fear uncertainty and doubt about what's going to come uh which entirely makes sense uh yeah I I would um you know I I guess wait and see as far as Tesla that darn thing's like down almost eight percent in the pre-market right now wouldn't be surprised by the way if that sort of retraces back to about 175.
that's probably where you have the best support right now for Tesla is about that 175 level you could see that on screen here and that's really just looking at our retracements over here we got rejected at the 221 uh and we generally don't like to float around in the middle so I wouldn't be surprised to see a nice retracement we're already going to get a massive red candle stick down to about 187.
what I do think will be very interesting is what kind of buy the dip activity are we going to get from institutions when the market actually opens up that will be very interesting are we going to get a lot of selling before these reports possibly a lot of Institutions have a very hard time justifying buying before inflation or jobs report that's come out so the next few weeks uh really the next two weeks most importantly the next 12 days are going to be very very critical so we'll pay a lot of attention to specifically what's going on there but that's roughly my take right there on uh on markets and what's going on
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