저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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시장 부정론 속에서도 과도한 비관은 금물이라는 취지. 유가는 $100 미만에서 안정될 것으로 보며 유가 상승이 채권 불안을 장기화하진 않는다고 봄. 30년물 5.28% 매수 기회 언급. 데이터센터 관련 주식 저가 매수 고려, 마이크론 보유 및 방문 취재 예정. 홈디포 호실적과 Airbnb 등 소비 양호 강조. 나스닥 공매도 포지션 과다는 역발상 신호로 해석.
다듬은 글
to entertain, but to educate, to teach. So, call me at 1-800-743-CNBC. Tweet me @JimCramer. There is nothing easier than being negative right now. We're practically enjoying it, aren't we? There is so much to dislike about the economy, about the frenetic nature of technology , about oil, about the president's actions on the war, about inflation, about housing affordability, and about the bond market, whether it's two-year, ten-year, or the horrendous thirty-year.
So it's easy to see why the market is down today: the Dow lost 116 points, the S&P fell 0.69%, the Nasdaq fell 1.33%—a real blow to all the great data center equipment stocks that were so popular. But for a moment, let me offer you an alternate reality. No, I'm not going to say that because we have too much debt, so much that the deficit interest bill has already reached a trillion dollars, that this is something we can handle.
That would put me at the top of the stupidity rankings. I don't know how this will be resolved here or in other countries with these rates, but let's agree for a moment that the bank is not going to fail anytime soon and move on. There are no excuses for the president either. As this war continues, it is becoming a rare issue that now unites left and right in disgust .
That's not even controversial, right? Almost no one likes this, and not just because it raises the price of all fuels, especially diesel. Each of us has our own moral compass. I like the late General George Marshall, the highest- ranking officer in the Army during World War II. He did not tolerate defeat.
Like Harry Truman. President Trump often talks about " that loser" and " that loser," and how presidents have lost war after war. If he wants to see who hasn't lost a war, maybe he should take a closer look at these two. Hey, how about getting along with Lincoln? Wars can be won even by those who say they are not ready to lose.
But I want to make a counterargument for a moment, one that is more compelling than that. We all know: as long as the president and the Iranians can't agree on anything , and the memorandum of understanding is over, we can't expect anything good. However, we also know that oil prices may be inflated.
We know that the strait is one of the ways to transport oil this time. And the Houthis in Yemen are also trying to attack the Red Sea. We know that the Iranians receive all kinds of weapons from Russia. It's hard to believe that Russians have anything extra, but apparently they do. But the Houthis may be living out their last days, given that they are surrounded by enemies.
So, I will consider the Red Sea as the end point. At the same time, we're going to be extracting a lot more oil here in America soon, because there's going to be a lot of pipelines for the natural gas that's burned during drilling. Nothing will be burned in this country . A massive drilling operation you've never even heard of is about to begin in New Mexico.
This is not taken into account. And it would be worth it . I bet this will be our biggest growth area in the next 5 years. Bakken is back in business . Venezuela is producing even more as its refining capacity has increased. The Chinese also seem to have an unlimited strategic oil reserve. I just don't see the price of oil soaring much above $100 a barrel.
It is currently at $91. This is not positive, but it is not the end of the world either. Even if it pushes the price of diesel well above $5 per gallon. I'm just saying that oil will reach a price that won't make bonds collapse every day . And then oil will fade into the background, which is a huge plus.
What about those pesky bonds? All you hear is about the global bond market. The news is not the best. But then again , can we mention PIGS? This is when Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain almost went bankrupt about 15 years ago. I mean, my God . This was likely to trigger another global financial crisis.
This is much worse than what it is now. This did not happen. These countries literally could not pay their bills. We did n't even come close to that . More importantly, while rates are rising due to both oil and Treasury issuance , we often forget that there are many people who were eagerly awaiting higher yields before investing in bonds.
They can buy 30- year bonds right now at 5.28%. Then they can buy another 5.5%. Consider this a promotion. Of course? They average the position. They make a profit. Stay focused. I do n't like it when bond yields rise. This is a signal that the Fed will tighten policy, right? Very bad for stocks. This does not mean that bonds are in crisis.
Again, it's not very good, but it's not enough to destroy us, despite what you hear from others. What about Nasdaq? This may be inflated by data center expansion, but don't tell that to shareholders of Meta, Google, Apple, Tesla, or Microsoft. There's no joy in that market , Bill. These stocks showed almost nothing .
Semiconductors took off. Today they fell to the ground in a real crash. Everyone is afraid of them during a sale like this. Well, no one wants to touch them now, right? Oh, they are showing good results. And thanks to Ryan Dietrich, who I follow at X , I was amazed that we have the largest number of short positions in the history of Nasdaq .
Can so many people really be right? When a deal becomes so popular, isn't it usually a mistake? For Investing Club, we are currently considering buying distressed data center stocks. We We won today. You can buy them in a pyramid scheme during the fall. Pay special attention to Micron and Moo, which we recently purchased for the tourism trust.
Why? Okay, on Thursday we're off to meet with Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of Micron, at his facility in Boise, Idaho. This will be a special journey, right into the heart of the most important piece of equipment in the data center. Because there is a huge shortage of such memory chips, and this person is trying to solve it.
We need to find out what's going on. The media doesn't tell you enough. This week everything will change. Finally, on my list of things that aren't so terrible, the consumer is at the top. Last night I was talking about how well things are going at Airbnb. They are on the rise, people are traveling like crazy.
They use AI to write programs and answer calls, and it saves them a fortune. Fireworks were set today by Home Depot, which had its best quarter in five years. Strength in 13-16 product categories. Really good figures for a professional business , which is great, because professional clients mean stability.
And the company has spent a fortune buying firms like SRS Distribution, which serves roofing professionals, and GMS, formerly Gypsum, which helps contractors with walls and ceilings. The rhythm of how each month unfolded demonstrated a remarkable pattern. They They had They had just great sales from those who used their natural language enabled sites to search and select products.
And all this happened at a time when the housing market was barely breathing. Yes, no one cared that it opened much higher. The stock actually fell 39 cents. This is ridiculous. But what if Target shoots tomorrow, huh ? I mean, they're in bad shape. What if they raise the forecasts? So , how does their growth justify this leap?
Well, I don't think you're going to. Before we get started, sign up to receive more analytics about AI and the stock market. The AI industry is entering a completely different phase. The focus is no longer limited to creating bigger and more powerful models. The bigger question now is where will the value of AI actually go?
One of the most important developments is the growing debate around sovereign AI. For businesses, this is a fundamental issue of control. But companies possess a huge amount of confidential information: customer data, internal documents, business processes, and proprietary information. And when implementing AI into these systems, they need to understand exactly where this information is processed and who controls the underlying technology.
This is where the discussion around Palantir becomes relevant. Many companies initially approached AI with a simple goal. It is quick to implement the technology, but after the first wave of implementation, companies become more cautious. They ask: "Who owns the data? Who has access to it and where is it stored?
And how much control does the company retain over the AI system that uses it?" This shift is important because it challenges the idea that AI will automatically replace traditional software. AI still requires an operating environment, enterprise applications, data center infrastructure, security, and software that combines AI capabilities with remain relevant in the context of AI.
The economic impact of AI is not necessarily limited to companies creating basic models. Many levels are involved. The models , cloud, data, software, security infrastructure, and applications through which businesses actually use AI. Another important factor is distribution. Let's take Meta. The company already has a massive global user base.
This gives it a significant platform for deploying AI products. So even if one group of AI companies slows down, other tech companies can continue to invest. The race doesn't necessarily stop because one participant changes pace. This is also why open source models and open weights are important. The issue is no longer just about achieving the highest performance.
Businesses also care about data availability, implementation, and control. And they care about whether they can integrate the model into their existing infrastructure. This creates a much broader competitive landscape. Companies developing advanced models compete with each other, but they also compete with open models, enterprise software developers, cloud providers, and technology companies with huge user bases.
And then there is the issue of regulation. Some AI leaders argue that advanced systems need stronger protections. Others believe that slowing down AI development could create economic and strategic disadvantages. The discussion will likely continue . But regardless of regulatory discussions, the investment cycle around AI infrastructure remains steady. And in any case
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