JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon offered 'a lot of caution' in earnings call, analyst says

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JP모건 실적 발표 후 은행업 전망 논의. 결론: 신중 기조이나 신용 악화는 아직 확인되지 않음, 은행 실적은 올해 감소 전망. 실적 개요: JP모건 CEO 다이먼은 상당한 신중함(caution)을 표명했고, 대손충당금(reserve)을 추가 적립. 다만 신용 악화보다는 '하방 위험 확률 상승'에 대한 대비 성격이며 실제 신용 열화는 관찰되지 않음. 전년 대비 충당금 환입 효과가 사라져 실적은 어려운 비교 구도. 대출 및 IB: 대출 성장은 모기지 뱅킹 약세에도 양호. 투자은행(IB) 수수료는 31% 감소. 1분기 IPO 급증 이후 반동. 시장 안정, 우크라이나 전쟁 리스크 완화, 연준의 연착륙 가능성이 확인되면 반등 가능하나 그 전에는 추가 회복 어려움. 금리: 금리 상승은 은행 수익성에 긍정적(예대마진). 과잉 현금으로 예금금리 인상 압력 제한. 2021년 말~2022년 초 금리 기대로 은행주 상승했으나 인플레·경기 우려로 상당 부분 반납. 투자 전략: 다이먼은 단기 실적보다 5년 장기 관점 강조. 기술 등 투자 지출은 단기 실적 훼손을 감수하고 집행, 성과는 다음 분기가 아닌 먼 미래에 판단. 장기 금리 선반영 우려로 리스크를 지지 않는 태도. 신용 리스크: 충당금 적립 강화는 CECL 회계기준에 따른 전향적 추정 영향이 큼. 실제 문제가 발생하면 그때 적립되므로 투자자는 충당금보다 핵심 영업(대출 수요, IB 활동)에 주목 필요. 다만 전년 충당금 환입 부재로 올해 실적은 감소할 것으로 예상. 출연자 전망: 금리 인상은 연준이 연착륙을 관리한다면 은행 실적에 긍정적, 강한 예금기반 은행의 마진 상승 폭이 클 것으로 봄. 신용 스프레드 확대에 대한 경계 언급.

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01. our next guest has more to say on jp morgan's latest quarter and a preview of the bank reports still left to come this week nathan stovall is s p global market intelligence principal analyst and joins us here for more nathan what do you think about jp morgan's results this morning and was this a positive signal for some of the big banks left to report well thanks for having me and i think ryan said it really well that jamie talked about a lot of caution and and what could come down the pike uh there is quite a bit of uncertain uncertainty out there and we get expected that the numbers are going to be challenging based on difficult year-over-year comparisons because reserve releases fueled earnings last year when we saw them almost double for the industry we didn't think that would happen again but we didn't expect substantial increases in reserves and jpm came down here and said you know we're not real sure what the outlook is like so we're going to provide a little bit of a cushion but importantly jamie was clear that it was just sort of a higher probability of downside not that they're actually seeing any real deterioration in credit so i think that's what people are going to really look for is are we actually seeing any real weakness or is it really just sort of uncertainty out there the other thing though is what does loan growth look like you know what the the lifeblood of most banks they make their money by taking it and lending it out at a higher rate and the loan loan numbers look pretty good even in the face of weaker mortgage banking so that's where we're going to turn our focus going forward can we see continue with loan growth can we actually put a lot of this excess cash is sitting on bank balance sheets to work nathan uh really over the past two years of the two plus years of the pandemic i think investors have gotten used to investment banking business being quite strong for the banks well in this quarter j.p morgan's investment banking fees down 31 percent is this the low point for the year or are things about to get worse that's really tough call but i mean i i think i would look the volatility that jamie talked about that we think that we can expect some volatility here for a while and we knew it was going to be tough after such a strong year last year particularly in the first quarter when we saw so many ipos hit the market if markets can sort of ease if we can get some sort of cooling some confidence maybe some stability with the war from ukraine if the fed can help sort of manage the soft landing and give some more confidence of what the future holds i think you could see you know a rebound from what we saw but you're going to need a little bit more sanguine markets to to really get a rebound from from the first quarter typically investors think about the fact that interest rates are moving higher the fed is hiking rates that's all a positive here for bank profitability should investors be leaning on that kind of a dodge to lift these stocks higher in the near term sure higher rates are definitely good for banks no doubt about it and one of the big reasons for that is because i mentioned there's so much excess cash out there we don't think that they're going to feel much pressure to raise deposit calls at least at the pace they had seen in prior cycles so it's higher rates coming down the pike that's going to flow through their loan portfolios and help lead the higher margins we definitely saw a big lift in the group late last year and early this year on the promised higher rates but they've given away a lot of that higher rate trade because people are getting a little bit more nervous about what higher rates and higher inflation could mean sort of for the broader economy and potentially credit so i think it just is really what's your view of credit do you think it's can the fed manage a soft landing here if so then high rates are going to be a good thing and we're going to see earnings go materially higher particularly for those banks that have really really really strong deposit bases uh and really strong core customer bases you could see their their margins rise at a really substantial pace jamie dimon has really been coming under fire rare fire i would say for how much the bank is investing in its business just billions of dollars notably in tech is there anything that you saw in this quarter that would suggest some of those investments are starting to pay off and that their may investor day might be better received well i think jamie always talks about things against the short term you know what's lookout five years and he always talks about it in the context of look we're going to play to win and so i think he gets really frustrated with the street when they say you didn't meet the number because expenses were at x amount relative to what we expected and i think his point is is that they've got a strong balance sheet they've got many levers to pull to invest in the future business and they plan to do so and they're not going to worry about the short term in fact we even heard that sort of an outside of just willingness to invest when they were pushed on do you want to put more cash to work in the short term we've seen longer term rates rise prematurely even before the fed has moved and and jamie has said you know we think we're going to see a lot more rate hikes come down the pike we're not going to take that rate risk today because we're managing to the longer term we're not managing to to the next quarter or even the quarter after that and i think that's the way it looks to sort of future investments and in his mind really the measure will be whether or not they paid off not next quarter or even the third quarter it will be much further down the road you touched on this a bit in one of your earlier answers but just looking at this earnings statement ceo jamie dimon said he was still optimistic about the us economy at least in the short term and yet the bank has built up its net credit reserves by more than 900 million dollars to protect against downside risks how should investors ultimately be weighing these mixed signals on the relative risks to the outlook that's a great question it really does seem to sort of fly in the face of each other right you know you feel really good about things you see a lot of tailwind at the back from from the economy today but yet we're talking about things that are making us nervous wider credit spreads and things like that part of that is driven by the reserve methodology that the banks have had to adopt uh right beginning in 2020 the the cecil um reserve methodology which requires them to take a much more forward-looking approach and jamie really tried to discount focusing so much on that and i think that if you're a bank investor you shouldn't worry so so much about that it is going to impact earnings but to the extent that problems come in the future they will be reserved for it and i would spend more time sort of looking at the core business you know what is happening in terms of uh borrowing activity from their core client base what is happening we talked earlier about an investment banking activity and sort of driving that top line opposed to sort of reserving activity i'm not saying discount it completely because we expected going into this that we thought earnings were going to decline year over year again because of the lack of reserve releases but if we see a bunch of banks come out here