저자: DanIves · 외국인
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엔비디아는 칩 판매를 넘어 소프트웨어·인프라·생태계로 수익이 반복 발생하는 플랫폼 구조이며, 전환비용이 커 경쟁 우위가 크다고 주장. 영업이익률 62.1%, 분기매출 추정치 상승(32.8B→36.2B달러)과 하이퍼스케일러 설비투자 지속을 근거로 제시. 금리 인하 기대 속 소형주 강세 및 엔비디아 장기 보유 의견 제시.
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yes I would like to know how selling a chip differs from selling an ecosystem in Services I believe that many non-experts in semiconductors have a hazy understanding of the fact that Intel sells chips great they sell chips this type of situation involves ongoing expenditures for software platform Services revenue and system maintenance after the gpus are sold could you describe how this operates for the viewers who aren't actually on the ground here oh how many chips will they sell isn't the only question in fact it looks more like apple in the end indeed they sell a lot of iPhones but what else occurs in terms of money after that yes and I believe that Apple makes a Perfect Analogy because many viewers consider it to be the iPhone in contrast to Nvidia in the end that's what this business does Services which are worth 1.7 trillion dollar have accounted for the largest portion of Apple's valuation change there is more to Nvidia than just processors it's basically like businesses saying okay we're going to buy the drink we're going to buy the meal here but now we're going to have to pay them an incremental 30 to 35% every year essentially in perpetuity on Services as well as on infrastructure and software when you consider the platform overall in architecture correct that is the distinction to put it another way Intel never understood which is why their ticker appears when you look up disaster in in a dictionary Jensen always recognized that the prize was more than simply developing the processors and gpus regardless of the reason the bureaucracy the fact that they' lost their ability or something else entirely it had to do with the architecture in general they have therefore effectively cornered it when you consider what they have done to put it another way this ought to be comparable to attending a baseball game where every meal and beverage you purchase supports the same vendor right finally from an i standpoint that is essentially what they have done who builds on top of it today though hyperscalers like Microsoft Amazon Google service now Salesforce workday and others serve as its foundation in other words Jensen's work is being expanded upon by second third and fourth derivatives additionally there is a change over cost if your ey services are based on video architecture it's not as easy as saying we'll just start SW dring them in because AMD has a 20% cheaper chip that's not how it works in my opinion am I correct switching might cost two to three times as much correct simply said switching costs are nearly impossible compared to sap Microsoft or workday that is completely different you standardize you move down the list for this reason you standardize not just your at staff but also your users and applications correct since the main point of this story moving away from the technological Edge which I believe everyone knows Nvidia is far ahead of is simply the company's execution is a public one I want to go over some charts it is just amazing Dan I believe you can view the first chart we have up here for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025 nvidia's operating margin is 62.1% as you can see from the blue chart they are investing heavily but their operating margins are still in the low to mid-60s they are far higher than they were in the 50s four or five quarters ago and they aren't dropping off at all we haven't seen a business to this before I believe and you know what they would resemble prominent older adults in their 80s and 90s living in Dell Beach if they weren't making significant Investments yes precisely in their 70s or 80s the point is after all that's what emphasizes it in essence the margin profile has doubled and once they have invested and this enormous expenditure even begins to slow gam a little this is a margin it's a free cash flow engine it's historic for this reason I still see it as earnings over the next five or six years tell me it costs a lot given the scale it's simply difficult to perceive that all right let's examine the earnings thus quarterly revenue is shown in the following chart by key to 2025 it has had reached $30 billion estimates indicate that it will reach $32.8 billion in the upcoming quarter and 36.2 billion in the two quarters after that once more it's nearly Unthinkable for a business to keep increasing its Revenue to this extent after it has grown to be the biggest in the world yet they managed to do it these figures are for the quarter we're looking at a business that is already generating over $100 billion in Revenue annually and isn't going anywhere well no all the calculations point to an annualized cost of $250 billion I don't understand why it doesn't go there considering the general need Jensen and Vidia are receiving all of these capital expenditure monies okay AMD gets 10% share you could say but that doesn't change the fact that the money is being spent now and this is crucial Jensen discussed it during the call and we have observed it in customers the train is the use case Roi as the use cases blow up the train is not stopped by anything we use this chart on the channel a few days ago but I don't have it with me now what do you think our graphic displays the top five Nvidia clients the monitary amount and percentage of their own Capital expenditures are displayed on one axis while the percentage of nvidia's income that this represents is displayed on the other for instance I believe that Microsoft spends about 45% of its capital expenditures on Nvidia which accounts for 19% of nvidia's total income the Bears would describe that section as the weakest or least sustainable element of the foundation however you disagree with that make us more comfortable with that degree of focus perhaps the hyperscalers are only in the middle of an end user story stated differently the hyperscalers which include Microsoft are 95% Enterprise to put it another way if you're a Microsoft shop and you're following this route it's VM Microsoft no one else will experience what you are you are traversing other hyperscalers such as Amazon or Google in my opinion focus is more of a perspective when you discuss it today it's not as though Microsoft is the client after that you must descend to the thousands of businesses I don't think that tells the whole story The End user is the most important factor hyperscalers are essentially acting as a sort of middleman as all of this is happening they're going by the computer that they're buying from Nvidia Josh brown or Dan if you place your order via Microsoft Nvidia handles it although Microsoft handles the order you and I plac the original order yes exactly and Josh one of the things we'll be witnessing in the next weeks everything we observe from the standpoint of components is a rise in demand when I mention Bears we joke that they limit the I revolution to spreadsheets in their office Towers in New York City that's probably where a lot of people have missed it the consumer component has been lacking particularly now that Apple has taken over the iPhone 16 the consumer Revolution is now available for the past 4 years you have 300 million iPhones that have not been updated all of that now flows to Apple followed by open Ai and of course envidia who will gain a great deal currently too restrictive would be the best Market narrative for small caps 5.5% in contrast to inflation which is going near 2% and bringing rates back down to 3% which is the neutral rate the market doesn't require the cutbacks to be front loaded if it thinks so however they must think that we are returning to neutrality that would in my opinion be a major motivator for small caps all right allow me to ask you some questions regarding Mega caps and consumers how significant will nvidia's earnings be next week not just for small caps but for the entire Market narrative Nvidia is significant because it supports the actual push for productivity through Automation and digital tools that is propelling the American economy that disinflationary trend is crucial naturally all of the major American corporations are based in the United States I mean it's a worldwide phenomena that helps American businesses therefore it is quite crucial in my opinion however Nidia stock stock isn't that demanding either given that it is trading at 26 times forward earnings I would not recommend then sell Invidia to buy small caps Nvidia is still a long-term investment in my opinion what about the holiday season and consumers who are under a lot of stress especially those in the working class at the start of that season what types of figures do you anticipate seeing that frequently sets the tone for the performance of retail stocks and other items yes the customer is experiencing stress credit cards auto loans and adjustable rate mortgages are all known to have high interest rates and are therefore governed by fed policy when consumers are paying these exord rates and inflation is declining it has been a policy I believe that firms will become more expa
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