저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 그랜섬은 슈퍼버블 붕괴가 아직 진행 중이며, AI 미니버블로 인해 최종 단계가 길어질 수 있으나 여전히 하락 쪽에 무게를 둔다. 버블 진행 경과: 그랜섬은 슈퍼버블이 전통적 방식(장기 경기 확장, 강세장, 기업 실적 호황 후 급락과 약세장 반등)으로 꺼지는 중이라고 본다. 2022년 대폭락이 있었고 올해 S&P500은 약 20% 반등했으며 나스닥은 더 강하게 올랐다. 그는 이를 약세장 반등으로 본다. AI 영향: AI 붐이 버블 최종 단계를 늘릴 수 있다고 우려한다. 2023년 들어 기술주 중심 랠리가 나왔고 나스닥이 러셀2000보다 약 25% 더 올라 거의 기록적 괴리다. 그는 AI 기술 자체는 계속 발전할 것이라고 보지만, 이것이 현재 주가 밸류에이션 거품과는 별개라고 본다. 확률 조정: 슈퍼버블 대붕괴 확률을 기존 85%에서 70%로 낮췄다. 여전히 높은 수준이며 완만한 하락으로 끝날 가능성도 소수 있다고 봤다. 경기·조건 리스크: 최종 단계는 가장 예측하기 어렵고 가장 길다. 기업 이익률 하락, 경기침체 여부, 전쟁, 중국 경제, 글로벌 무역, 정책 대응에 따라 깊이와 기간이 달라진다. 정책을 잘못 다루면 1929년처럼, 잘 다루면 닷컴 버블 수준의 얕은 침체가 될 수 있다. 투자 조언: 메가캡 기술주가 S&P500의 약 26%를 차지하는데, 그는 AI 관련 투기 랠리로 이들 종목이 시장 대비 크게 비싸졌다고 본다. 이미 크게 오른 투자자라면 차익 실현을 권한다. 출연자 전망: 그랜섬은 하락 쪽 기조를 유지하며 AI 미니버블이 시장을 다시 강세장으로 되돌리기보다 하락 과정을 늦출 뿐이라고 본다. 반면 드러켄밀러는 랠리가 2~3년 더 갈 수 있다고 봤고, 모니시 파브라이는 애초에 투자하지 않겠다는 입장이라고 소개되었다.
다듬은 글
hi everyone JJ here with the other value welcome well today I'm going to look at the latest interview from Jeremy Grantham he's talking about his Super Bubble idea again that he says has been deflating for quite some time now but he says AI has changed things a little bit let's see what he has to say about that Grantham says that the Super Bubble that he's been talking about has been deflating but he's a little bit disturbed by the emergence of the mini bubble of artificial intelligence that's happening right now Grantham says he's been trying to work out if this AI bubble is quick enough and strong enough to alter the final stage of the deflation of the super Babble he's been talking about so I'm going to get into more detail about what Grantham says about how the mini AI battle is affecting the Super Bubble the deflation of it how he sees it playing out now but first for those of you who don't know Jeremy grantham's a veteran value investor he's known for some really good calls on the extremes of markets on the highs and lows and turning points at the markets he's got quite a few things right over the years including the major bubbles he's calls yourself a student of the major bubbles Financial bubbles in history grantham's a co-founder of the global investment firm GMO he used to be the chief investment strategist there and now he's the long-term investment strategist and he is heavily involved in the Grantham Family Foundation which is in turn involved in climate change investment that's his main focus these days on grantham's track record of talking about bubbles back in 1997 fully three years before the tech Bubble Burst he called that he also warned of the developing subprime mortgage and credit bubble before that burst and came close to picking the top of the market when that happened he also picked the bottom of the market in March 2009 after that all went bust he nearly picked it to the day and there's evidence of that he wrote this article called investing when terrified urging his clients to get back into the market even though it was terrifying to do so and it just so happened that he picked it almost to the day the bottom of the market in 2018 he warned of a possible Market melt up that was will last two to three years and a big decline after that and of course what happened there was a late stage bull market there that ended in 2020 with the Meltdown in March 2020 and then it took off again for in about another year and in 2022 we had the major market decline so he pretty much nailed the process of the market and almost the timing as well there that's what he's been calling the Super Bubble the long run up to 2020 and then what happened after that when the FED injectors huge money and the market took off again after 2020 and there was a decline in 2022 as we've seen that bear Market that happened and that was saying that it might be halted or paused a little bit by the AI MINI BOOM since the beginning of 2023 there's been this Resurgence and rally especially in tech stocks so what has Grantham got to say about that well Grantham says that until recently this battle was unwinding in a very traditional way and what he means by that he studies that great bubbles of History he studied 1929 he studied Japan there's the housing and and stock market bubble then the tech bubble and this one that he sees now and he says this one's been unwinding in a similar way until recently until this phenomenon of the AI MINI BOOM what do you means by unfolding in the traditional way he says it's been checking all the boxes that are long economic upswing a long bull market in the stock market and strong company earnings he said in each case there's been almost perfect economic conditions at the top of the cycle including in this recent case he said in each case there's been a strong leg down up to the top of the bubble and then some bear Market rallies which has happened in each case including this one we've had a 20 rally in the S P 500 and considerably more than NASDAQ he says it has been a strong rally this year which he sees as a bear Market rally a big one whether it's correct on this being a huge bear Market rally and not continuing it remains to be seen of course it's going to be really interesting to see but he says there are reasons for this bear Market really this time which may alter the bubble completely and let's get into that now by the way if you're watching on YouTube and getting value out of this episode so far I really appreciate it if you hit that like button to help spread it to more people help with visibility also we're well over a thousand subscribers across YouTube and Spotify right now so if you haven't subscribed yet maybe think about subscribing if you like this kind of content so you can see more in the future this is where he said he's been a little bit disturbed by the emergence of this mini bubble and Ai and he's been trying to work out if this is going to affect the final stage of the bubble because he said it was deflating quite nicely in a traditional way but AI might have affected that he might have elongated the deflation of the bubble he's not quite sure yet but he thinks that may be the case he says the final stage of the bubble is always the most difficult to predict and it's always the longest because it involves fundamentals it relies on fundamentals of companies profit margins falling and economic conditions if there's a long recession or not some other bubbles have had very long recessions or not so long like the tech bubble but he said even in the tech bubble the NASDAQ dropped 80 25 percent even though there wasn't a long recession after that or a deep recession it still affected the stock market because of the huge bubble that we had in technology back then he said there are other economic variables that can affect this last stage including the war that's going on uh the Chinese economy global trade many other factors so it's very difficult to predict what will happen and how long it will be how deep it will be and how it will play out he said a lot of it depends on how the economy is handled during a time like this he said if it's handled badly it could be like 1929 if it's handled quite well it could just be like the tech bubble and pretty shallow recession and but the market still went down hugely especially in that area of tech and.com companies all of that which got wiped out of and it was a long bear market after that so the interviewer Consuela Mack asked him if this was a bear Market rally and there'll be a continuation of the bursting of this massive Super Bubble that he sees and he said I would say so however he did say that his probabilities have changed from 80 five percent which is very high back to seventy percent because of the emergence of this AI bubble so it's changed a bit and the probabilities for him have changed but still very high she asked them to explain what he thinks is going on with AI and how it might interfere with the unraveling of the bubble in the traditional way well he said it was complicated before the emergence of AI but late last year with Chet GPT and this AI boom that's happened since then a flurry of interest and he said it's very concentrated but it's made it even more complicated he points out that the NASDAQ index is up about 25 percent more than the Russell 2000 this year he said that's almost a world record Divergence but he did say it happened in a similar way around 2000 the tech bubble but it's a huge Divergence added to this he says there's a big Divergence of opinion about current Ai and chat gbt in particular and these kinds of tools some people think it's just parroting predicting words and it's not very smart yet and other people think it's going to change the world quickly it's a huge productivity move over and it's going to be amazing very quickly and it's going to move things forward incredibly fast into the future and it deserves this huge boom and stock market boom that it's having right now he was asked where he stands on the debate and he says that there's no question that computers won't get smarter from here saying we've had computers that have been linked together all over the world of course the internet and now computers are finally getting smarter and he says that won't stop he thinks that they're getting smart now and the only way forward from there is getting smarter and smarter being very smart way smarter than humans in fact he says if computers linked together have intelligence of over 200 IQ of over 200 and they're linked together that will be very powerful and he says there's pretty much zero chance of that not happening so you think it's going to happen but that's separate from this AI bubble the mini bubble VCS right now there's we've talked about this in videos before monish pepper and the last video I talked about this is a difference between the technology and how good the companies are and how people get carried away with valuations it's the hype cycle that I've talked about before as well where we have inflated expectations and the stock market goes up and it does it take a while to filter through and so we have the trough of disillusionment after this will this be a hype cycle like that we'll have to wait and see but if you look at the likes of Nvidia very expensive right now Manish pep right as I said in the last video thinks that it could be like Microsoft during the.com bubble where it became very expensive 600 billion valuation and then dropped away to a few hundred billion after that and it took really 10 years to get back to where it was but Grantham saying that this bubble that's happening right now in AI will affect the the overall Super Bubble the deflating of the Super Bubble rather than it taking off to get into a bull market he thinks that will continue down or he thinks there's a big chance it will continue down and not be a disrupter in terms of turning the market back into a bull market just yet what do you actually is about the AI boom in relation to the stock market is that he doesn't think that it's actually operating on the time frame of this particular bubble and so what he means by that is he thinks there will still be a traditional deflating of the bubble over a one or two years and a recession economic troubles to do with that and a decline in profit margins and he thinks that all this will happen before the real effects of AI kick in Consuela Mack points out that however this year we've had this huge rally in the mega cap tech stocks that comprise 26 percent of the S P 500 she asks if he thinks that this could throw his bubble deflation scenario off somewhat prolonging the rally because they have such a big effect on the market could this go on this rally go on for much longer than he thinks he says yes and he says he thinks it's already elongating the process and that he says it's a small chance that we could end up with a shallow decline instead of a big bubble bursting and that's why he's adjusted his probabilities from 85 percent to 70 percent of the big bust carrying on this final stage so he's changed his probabilities but really not that much at all Consuela points out that yes they might be 25 out of the market these Mega cap tech stocks but for individual investors some investors they can price up to 50 percent of the portfolio so she asks what he thinks should be the thing to do in this situation he says that what he thinks is that those investors have been very lucky because the stocks have played right into the speculation and artificial intelligence and they're pretty much 25 above everything else in the market and that if it was him he would take some profits here so obviously in his opinion he thinks this is a bear Market rally and it's going to go down and if it was semi attacks and profits because he sees this as totally speculation this mini bubble that will not last and so that's his advice to individual investors it's not mine I don't know whether this will go on or not we've seen various opinions we've seen Stanley druckenmiller who knows that in videos in nosebleed territory but he still owns it and he said it could go on for two or three years longer so they're always varied opinions differing opinions there are other opinions out there monish Pep Boys says that it's a total bubble and he wouldn't invest it in the first place but Grantham is saying that for investors who are already invested and I've seen this 25 leap in speculation from AI he says that he would take profits so what do you think about what Jeremy grantham's got to say let me know in the comments do you think that he's right about the Super Bubble bursting and that we're in a bear Market rally driven by AI but it will continue down after that or do you think we're at the beginning of a bull market again that 2023 is the start of a new bull market let me know in the comments what you think I think it's always interesting to hear what Jeremy grantham's got to say about the extremes and markets the highs and lows he's made some good bubble calls over the years I'm gonna put a previous video up here if you're on YouTube or in the description of your elsewhere what he had to say recently not many months ago about the super bubbly C is from Euphoria to panic to recession in the market so go and see that now if you haven't seen that yet and thanks for watching or listening and I'll see you next time
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