저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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2025년 최대 승자로 자율로봇·휴머노이드(Unitree 등), AI 대기업 수혜, 달러 스테이블코인을 꼽음. 스테이블코인 거래량이 2024년 2분기 Visa 대비 2배 이상이라 주장하며 4~5배 성장 전망. 엔비디아·칩메이커는 컴퓨팅 수요 확대로 수혜 기대. 테슬라 FSD 대중화도 언급.
다듬은 글
all right let's do our 2025 predictions for biggest business winner freeberg why don't you start us off biggest business winner for 2025 what's your prediction so I feel like we're at a really interesting inflection point that is going to make 2025 the year of autonomous Hardware or robotics if 2024 was the year of kind of compute build out and the roll out of AI systems in software I think 2025 will be the year of the robot chath palahia predicts 2025 will be transformative for stable coins Robotics and AI he highlights dollar denominated stable coins disrupting traditional payment systems like Visa with Rising transaction volumes and practical business applications he also sees robotics going mainstream with affordable autonomous devices like unise robots revolutionizing industries from agriculture to security this marks a key moment for widespread adoption of autonomous systems lastly shath emphasizes ai's growing dominance in big businesses giving larger companies a Competitive Edge while driving demand for computational power benefiting chip makers like Nvidia you know there's a company I we just placed an order today actually out of China called unry Gavin have you looked at this company yeah it's pretty wild actually it's an incredible business incredible product so their go2 robot is $1600 has an API here it is you can run a payload on on it it's got lar on it it's got kind of intelligence guidance systems on it this is the robot system that was used on some of those videos we looked at earlier this year where there were machine guns mounted to the back and it was basically a new kind of field Soldier it's an autonomous field Soldier but really you can use it in scientific applications we're looking at using them in our uh on our on our test Farms where it can wander the farm and take images and Report data back to us and it's such a low cost at like less than $3,000 you can do some incredible things with it so this business just raised a couple hundred million dollars last month from Mostly Chinese investors it's a Chinese company and I think that there's going to be you know other similar type businesses you know kind of takes a long time for things to work and then all of a sudden they happen faster than you could have ever imagined I think this is going to be the year where we're all going to look at humanoid robots and autonomous systems and be like oh my God I can't believe this is here um so this could be the year a good choice such a great strong choice for the biggest winner and I think the quote you're looking for is how did you go bankrupt slowly and then all at once that's how these technology changes and man I would love to have one of these for the ranch to just run around and do the perimeter security sorry Nick pull up the you guys got to watch this if you haven't seen it Nick find the video of the go2 with the wheels on it U managing terrain and everyone thought this was a BS video that it was like CGI wasn't real it was AI generated but like this thing is just incredible here it is this is a real video of this thing yeah and it could learn from an llm too right like a large language model could teach it how to do something yeah Gavin is this real like what's real yeah yeah I want to get the G1 which is their humanoid robot yeah so pull up the humanoid it's really cool yeah little more expensive yeah yeah I mean $166,000 is the cost of a used Prius let's be honest that's in spitting distance of being affordable M look at this thing 16 Grand and this thing you can you know you can basically command it to do things for you in your house or in your factory or in your workplace come on I knew you would do it oh come I was gonna say maybe we could get a poker dealer maybe B you know I wonder if this thing could deal cars open wine do you guys remember that robot that was on stage for our all-in Holiday Spectacular so my my brother made an observation he said as soon as that robot came out it's like everyone just wanted to abuse it he's like humans have this very interesting nature where like the robot emerges and all that humans want to do is like hurt the robot it's like a very strange revelation of human behavior yeah like it just it's like oh here's something I could dominate here's something I can t because we're so threatened by it we want to make sure that we're the top of the species here and it doesn't feel like it's going to be for much longer I mean these things will kick our ass pretty soon anyway these things are amazing I think this is going to be the year of the robots that's my year of the robots is your prediction I love it uh Gavin what do you got profoundly agree I think you're the robots um inclusive of FSD you know I think FSD works today and it's going to it's it's going to cross into mainstream adoption where I already notice particularly if I'm taking an Uber late at night I really really prefer to have a Tesla just sometimes you get an Uber driver who's who's tired and I just feel a lot safer if they have the FSD running and then obviously using it for yourself is amazing but I think it's going to continue compounding at an accelerating rate I think the in a lot of ways what i' would say broadly is I think for a while it's going to be big businesses are winners big businesses that use Ai thoughtfully and the reason is is that with what is happening what what 03 showed us open AI new model the combination of reasoning and test time compute like I think you're if you're a big business and you can pay a million dollars to let an AI think for six weeks about the most important question for your business that's going to be a profound Advantage relative to small businesses that can't afford that and by the way we are the other like inference compute is going to be the the kind of derivative when of that we're going to run out of gpus accelerators compute in 2025 the same way we did in 23 okay so you're also long Nvidia and chipmakers grock Etc because we're finding new uses for all that compute absolutely okay very good chth do you have a prediction for your biggest business winner of 2025 sir I think the biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be dollar denominated stable coins oh I'll make two points in 2024 two critical things happened the first is that stable coins essentially became uncoupled from crypto volatility and it started to be used for wholesale useful functions in running businesses and there's an image here that starts to show that so independent of crypto volatility what you saw were stable coin usage just rising up and to the right that's an incredibly important decoupling that happened in 2024 the second and this data is still just trickling in but it's an incredible stat stablecoin usage at the end of the second quarter of 2024 was about 1.1 billion transactions that summed to 8.5 trillion do of transaction volume if you compare that to Visa over the same period it was more than double visas transaction volume so I think what we have now is something that has fundamentally crossed a point of no return similar to how last year I thought that the big Trend was going to be Bitcoin in 2024 I would say that the big Trend in 25 is stable coin usage I think we're going to finally attack the duopoly of visa and MasterCard I think you're going to see an inal number of use cases that sit and use stable coin rails I think when Donald Trump becomes president I think you're going to see him go after incredibly High credit card transactions and costs you're already seeing cracks in consumer credit anyways because of these high aprs all of this stuff is going to come to a head in 2025 I think and I think stable coins could quadruple or quintuple by the end of 25 I don't have to tell you Jim Kramer is very excited for Jensen's keynote J long of nvidia's keynote on Monday as we all are and Sarah you said it AI is in the spotlight again but the stakes this time they're higher than ever this is users and investors alike are looking beyond the hype for those real world applications now the elements are there as Sarah just said kicking off the conference is NVIDIA CEO and AI King maker himself Jensen hang during his keynote Monday in Vegas he is likely to give a broad overview of the market and where we are at industry Watchers they are expecting a key GPU upgrade with the RTX 5000 series that's based on the new Blackwell architecture that you've likely heard a lot about Nvidia Shares are up nearly 7% over just the last session in a bit in anticipation of that keynote now for the industry at large the pressure is on for actual use cases like agents and devices Beyond smart toasters and smart refrigerators which seem to have become a staple of CES people want more though especially as last year's high-profile AI releases they ultimately underwhelmed there was the R1 device from rabbit and the Humane pin I don't know if you remember those but both of them flopped aip's they were everywhere too but shipments dipped last year and lackluster gross for the PC industry is expected this year now adding to this sense of urgency is a Trend that we talk about often on Tech Che this idea that advancements in large language models are shifting the market now in a digestion phase where the focus has moved from raw innovation in those llms to integration optimization and scaling investors there becoming increasingly wary of ballooning costs tied to bigger and better models they're looking for Roi in applications we better to look than CES another key Battleground is Agents AI that is capable of thinking and acting on its own to complete tasks increasingly those are being built into existing devices and ecosystems like smartphones like the iPhone not through new AI Hardware the last thing that I will note guys is that in recent years CS has lost a little bit of its shine and relevance contributing to that has been Co the rise of cloud and enterprise software at a consumer conference and gimmicky or incremental updates versus real groundbreaking Innovation so this year is really an opportunity for CES to revive its role in the age of AI as we get closer to those killer apps we're still looking for them though so CES you know hopefully will showcase at least where some of those are heading 2025 is set to be transformative with robotics Ai and stable coins driving major shift affordable autonomous robots like unise models are revolutionizing Industries while AI empowers businesses with unprecedented computational capabilities boosting demand for techn Technologies like nvidia's gpus stable coins decoupled from crypto volatility are disrupting traditional Financial systems surpassing visas transaction volume and challenging established networks these Trends raise critical questions how will Society adapt to the integration of advanced Robotics and AI can stable coins fully disrupt traditional Financial systems and reshape Global transactions
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