저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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시장 비관론이 과하다는 입장으로, 엔비디아의 블랙웰 칩 출시와 AI 소프트웨어 우위로 성장 여력이 크다고 주장. 엔비디아 밸류에이션은 EBITDA 기준 선행 멀티플이 역사적 범위 하단이라 브로드컴·마벨보다 저렴하다고 평가. 원전 관련 비스트라·컨스텔레이션을 전력 수요 증가 수혜주로 제시. 배당·자사주 매입 등 주주환원 가능성 언급.
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sure sure I get it but being a bear is easy in this business if stocks go up no one will remember your negative prog noxic right if stocks go down you'll be a sear we will sing your Praises worship you you'll become the big get paraded out every time the market goes down big because you have Street CR and you see that bear go you know I love that thing anyway you know me sure the day was disappointing kind of like last week but I want to attack the other way I want to tell you what could go right give you 10 things that might cut in F of the balls all right they're not rip snores no trampling the Bears hair just some things that well let's say they make me want to be a little more positive than the others I need to tell you what can go right because nobody else is you know what I like being alone some of the best moments of my vacation just were being a just kidding about that Jim Kramer discusses Market negativity despite recent gains emphasizing the ease of bearish sentiment but focusing on potential positives for stock he highlights nvidia's pivotal role in a I with its Blackwell chip launch expected to drive significant Revenue growth despite delivery concerns the analyst notes nvidia's valuation advantage and dominance in AI software while predicting broader AI trade benefits for smaller cap companies in 2025 Kramer and the analyst explore nvidia's potential shareholder returns including BuyBacks and its critical role in the early AI buildout phase while the guest prefers Tesla and Apple for personal investment Nvidia remains a firm favorite for its growth prospects Tesla tla's AI advancements and Apple's strong iPhone Outlook are also noted as key long-term drivers Jean I'm just looking through your disclosures you don't own Nvidia why not uh personally I don't own Nvidia are have you noticed the extreme negativity shaping in already even when the stock market was up nicely this morning before the midday Swoon in the close Dow finishing down 102 points as be declining Point 22% NASDAQ losing .6% all I heard was that well we've been up big for two straight years and we're due for a pull back or these are perilous times like the 1930s High tariffs collapse and World Trade coming the 10e treasury heading to 5% because of inflation in effective fed overextended stocks the bull on its last legs it does raise questions about what Nvidia is going to do with all that cash that it's bringing in what do you think the best answer would be uh I think uh probably return it to shareholders share BuyBacks I mentioned that valuation at 25x I think it's uh quite compelling and so I think that that's probably the easiest way they don't need to make any Acquisitions at this point so I think it's probably on that the typical well-traveled path of share BuyBacks dividends we probably will see something along those lines uh in we almost have to in calendar 25 for NVIDIA specifically Jean I'm just looking through your disclosures you don't own Nvidia why not uh personally I don't own Nvidia our firm does deep water does own Nvidia and uh the reason why we own it is at the end of the day I think that the obvious trade is still on play here uh I think there's a lot of anticipation that this uh company's growth is going to slow uh dramatically but some people even think it may even decline in calendar 26 but as I mentioned I think that we're still early in the AI buildout phase so that's why Deepwater owns it but you do personally own apple and Tesla why not Nvidia if you are so con if you have such conviction on it um you know I think if I was going to kind of Force rank uh those three I don't do first from just the highest level I I have very few companies in my my personal account and so that's I don't think it's necessarily an indictment against Nvidia it's more just related to uh my conviction around apple and Tesla so apple and Tesla are still your highest conviction stocks because those are the ones you own too yeah for the long term and you I have the benefit to own things for 5 plus years you know I think it's worth mentioning we'll get the Tesla numbers here momentarily I do think Tesla is due for a pullback here I mean we've had some incredible of course $700 billion in gain over the last 3 months in the market cap uh that's just not sustainable but I think that what they're doing around AI is is going to ultimately Drive the market cap higher and when it comes to Apple I think the iPhone's going to grow closer to 8% and uh for this coming cycle and the expectations are for 3% so that's where my conviction comes from talk to me about Nvidia this is the key question is NVIDIA still going to be a winner in 2025 what's your bll case well maybe some things for having me basically what we saw towards the end of last year is Nvidia stock styled as we were approaching the launch of their Blackwell chip so the key for the stock from here will be how well they execute on this launch we see significant upside once the delivery numbers ramp we think they're going to be able to exceed 200 billion in Revenue just from this uh this product launch for this year so we see a lot of upside it's just going to be key to get this product Rolling In the initial quarters what do you think was the kind of downward pressure over the past month or so is that something you see correcting well that is exactly it Madison I think is these delivery numbers people are still concerned whether Blackwell is showing the produ the Improvement that we are expecting to see and whether they're able to deliver it on time where it's not doesn't have overheating issues uh so those were really the challenges that the company never really said that they were facing but we were hearing from customers so there is a lot here in how you integrate the product so it's not the product may be working fine but once customers deploy it that's the question whether it's working good good for them where do valuations fall on your list of concerns and your kind of rubric for looking at a stock like Nvidia so valuation is very important for us and when you look at Nvidia because of the way earnings have grown the stock actually looks very attractive on on a multiple basis so if you look at e ebda which is what we focus on one year forward uh you're going to see that it's trading right in the middle or on the lower end of the historic range and now it's cheaper than stocks like broadcom and marll that we also like so it actually screens very attractive on valuation basis yeah talk to me about your your bull case for some of those other AI plays so basically as we get further into the cycle Nvidia will remain the dominant player just because of their Cuda Advantage however we're going to see a lot of the hyperscalers like you mentioned Amazon build their own chips and bring those to Market so marll is partner with Amazon Google is partner with broadcom so they're going to be helping these companies bring their own chips to Market which will take pretty significant market share over the next several years we still though compared to where the market stands or or what the market is assuming we think the growth for NVIDIA will remain much stronger just because of their uh their advantage on the software side and obviously Nvidia the second biggest gainer year to date in 2024 but the first was vistra a nuclear energy play and I know vistra and constellation are among your picks talk to me about your case for those names so as we saw the AI trade broaden now we are getting into a phase where we need physical buildout of data centers and power associated with them and the US has gone through a period of time where the power infrastructure has not really been upgraded both on the grid and the generation side so as we we've brought more Renewables to market the reliability is much lower of the grid so what we're going to see is power prices Spike up in order to incentivize new Supply coming to Market so that's where companies like vistra benefits we also like constellation they operate one of the largest nuclear fleets or the largest nuclear Fleet in the US we think nuclear is very well positioned for the hyperscalers uh just because of the reliability so we see a lot of opportunity on the energy side how much are you thinking about the incoming Administration and any regulatory looseness that we could expect for those nuclear energy names as a potential Tailwind for them in 2025 so the regulatory environment is always tricky because it does depend on States as well as the as the federal government so I think less regulation would be a pretty significant positive for them incrementally though I think gas is also benefiting here from uh from looser regulatory environment so I think both nuclear and gas are well positioned with the with the new Administration I would say new Administration is incrementally more positive for gas than for nuclear which is why you've seen vistra perform better than constellation I guess taking a bit of a step back here there's been this big question about the AI story and whether or not it is overblown whether this is going to be the year that the investment really proves itself and we see those applications what do you make of those questions do you think that those questions themselves are overblown I do think the questions are overblown because if you look down under the hood we are seeing a lot of applications that we're using already today so on the search side the new AI the Transformer model has been really transformational in terms of how we do search today so even though those are really replacing prior search so you're you're not really seeing incremental revenue from them they're pretty big applications now as we look forward we think there is going to be a lot more Innovation on the physical side of things so the autonomy robotics even in Quantum Computing so you're using the AI um models today in order to build some of these applications uh for later down the road so I think that's really like even this may be even year one maybe year one will be next year so it's kind of like we're really in early Innings of of the applications being built built out do you see the AI trade broadening to some of those mid smaller cap companies in 2020 because that's also been another question is when we'll see not just the hyperscalers benefiting from AI but also some of the smaller names absolutely so we think this is going to be the year where we see like the effect trickle down from like two years ago was just Nvidia last year was Invidia some hyperscalers some of the custom chip providers and I think as we get further into the cycle you'll see some of the software names on the cyber security side the data infrastructure side and then applications Lesly that would be like autonomy and and robotics Jim Kramer and his guest discussed the pessimistic outlook on the market despite recent gains focusing on nvidia's strong position in Ai and its upcoming Blackwell chip launch while Nvidia faces short-term delivery concerns its growth potential remains strong especially in AI software and Hardware they also explored the energy sector noting opportunities in nuclear energy with companies like vistra and constellation due to the growing demand for Reliable power infrastructure to support AI growth the conversation highlighted nvidia's role in ai's future and while Kramer personally favors apple and Tesla Nvidia remains a key player in the space the discussion also touched on potential growth for smaller companies as AI expands will Nvidia continue to lead the AI Market through 2025 or could new competitors emerge which Industries or smaller companies do you think will benefit most from the AI boom in the next few years
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