저자: TomLee,BrynTalkington · 외국인
요약 보기
장기 채권 매입 등 재무부 개입은 신호 효과로 시장 안정에 도움이 될 것이라는 견해. 잭슨홀·엔비디아 실적 전까지 증시는 박스권 예상. AI 데이터센터 정치적 반발은 우려 요인이지만 AI 관련주(소프트웨어, 바이오, 암호화폐 등) 강세로 이어진다는 주장. 엔비디아는 AI 초기 단계로 보며 장기 성장 여지를 강조하고, AMD·Intel·Arm 선호 언급. 다만 성장 둔화 가능성과 기대치 부담도 제기됨.
다듬은 글
Today we have Tom Lee from Fundstrat and Bryn Talkington from Requisite Capital . We are pleased to announce that both are CNBC contributors. Brin , congratulations. Tom, it's nice to see you in the studio. What do you think about the professor's words? Well, I think Jeremy makes some important points, but in my opinion, buying back Treasury bonds was a smart move.
I don't think it's any different than a company saying, "Look, there are things that make investors nervous about my stock, but they don't apply to my company." And I believe that this was exactly the signal from the Ministry of Finance. So I don't think it's manipulation. This is really a value indicator and I believe they are just trying to pick out the signal from the noise.
What if it doesn't work? Well, if that doesn't work , they have even more dollars to throw at it. So I really think the Treasury Department has a lot of resources available. So I assume it will work. So, you're assuming that yields will start to decline again? I think we just need some ballast until we get some clarity or a signal on what's going to happen with oil and the direction of the CPI and the things that are making the market a little hesitant.
Of course, Jackson Hole this week or next week , and I think that could bring some clarity, and all of that could dampen the risk premium that's built into yields. Brin, how do you see this? Well, I think a lot of the discussion this week has been about Kevin Warsh being in a difficult position because he's saying, "Let the bond market tell us what's going on," and at the same time, by contrast, Secretary Yellen is buying up Treasuries.
But if you look deeper, 20-year and 30-year bonds are very illiquid. This is a total market of about $6 trillion when looking at long- term bonds. Nobody is focusing on 20- year and 30-year papers. 10- year, 5-year, 2-year bonds are important, but they don't buy them. So I really think that Fed Chairman Warsh has the ability to get away with saying, first of all, that these Treasury purchases are tiny relative to the total, and it's more of a signal that the Treasury is saying, we're going to come in and buy up these long-term yields, because the reality is that the 10- year and the short-term are what it's all about .
And so I think the market , the stock market, will be in a range this week because, as both the professor and Tom said, the Jackson Hole meeting that he's speaking at on Friday will be the defining moment when we'll understand what he really thinks or what he's going to tell us about his thoughts, because he's already said that as Fed chairman he's going to be very laconic.
Tom, do we think next week is the most important for the direction of the stock over the next few months? You know, you won't hear anything from Nvidia for a while after next Wednesday. And also, I don't think people really expect anything from the Fed to happen in September or even October, right up until the midterm elections.
I think that makes next week even more important for stocks. Well , I agree. I think this is what I consider a " purifying event," because let's take the story of AI. There were concerns about data centers and political opposition. And that forced this trade to stop. I think Jensen Huang will bring back a lot of confidence that, look, the story with the relentless demand is still there and it will happen no matter what.
And similarly for the Fed, I really think uncertainty is growing between Worsh's speeches. So I think this is another chance to correct course. You raise an interesting point. So you think what certainly looks like growing opposition to data centers is affecting stock market trading. This is because if data centers cannot be built, then all this “narrow” trade does not look so durable.
So, I think what we've seen in Ohio, Florida, Texas and Pennsylvania, where governors are imposing potential moratoriums or even voters are saying it's a political issue, is giving investors pause. What if that doesn't change? I mean, I'm literally looking at one of the latest polls right in front of me, which I happened to see earlier today, and support is declining across all political parties.
Yes. I think what this tells us is that the AI industry, especially the labs , need to start getting the message across that this is not the end of the world. You know, I mean, I think it's very likely that this political issue could become a problem. But that's exactly why stocks of companies working with AI are starting to rise.
The software showed good results this week. Well, you know, even biotechnology and cryptocurrencies, because they're all derivatives of the AI story. How do you like that? Since the beginning of the year, we have seen quite good figures, over 40 percent. What's really interesting about this company is, you know, their future plans for the PC business.
So, they're talking about developing these AI-PCs that they already have. The real question, you know, is for them: can they deliver profitability? They are trying to raise prices, but they are also facing the problem of memory cost. So that's what we're looking at. This is a somewhat controversial action.
This is definitely not the leader in the AI race. This is approximately where it is. Yes, we are thinking about what is happening here. I mean, what stage do you think we are at in the AI revolution ? I know it's a race, but this revolution that we're seeing, are we still in the early stages, even if there will be some slowdown?
What do you think? Yes, I truly believe we are in the beginning stages. Some people talk about the second, third, fourth innings. That's, you know, roughly how I see it. So I think we have a long way to go. There are many ways to play on this, and we constantly discuss it every day. We are currently focused on the processor segment.
You mentioned Akamai earlier, but we really like companies like AMD, Intel, Arm Holdings because AI inference can happen in the cloud or locally on the PC. Before we get to today's story about Nvidia, subscribe to the channel. And if you need more in-depth stock analysis, consider joining the premium analytics channel.
I also prepared an e-book with my five favorite stock picking tool demonstrat: can the company sustain if Nvidia could face a pullback if growth slows. The expectations that are currently net profit to grow by almost 99% and revenue to increase by approximately 19%. These are colossal well is does non the corporate sector out a bit more balanced, the broader development of AI will continue.
And this conclusion is extremely important for Nvidia. The story of AI is no longer limited to those who created the most advanced model. What matters is how many businesses are implementing AI, how many users are interacting monitoring a number of risks. One of them is the possible accumulation of orders in data centers.
Another is the debt that some companies take in the field of AI. upplying core chips. Then there is the issue of open source supply the computing power to run these model generative . Generative AI can potentially can segment of CPUs specifically designed for AI tasks. So even moving to more CPU-heavy generative Nvidia's future demand is still sitting in warehouses?
And that, of course, would raise the question of were shipped. And whether customers continue to deploy the infrastructure they signed up for. So far, the development of artificial intelligence in enterprises has not stopped. And that's why I think the broader discussion around Nvidia should focus less on whether growth has peaked and more on what will happen to growth rates going forward.
Nvidia doesn't have to maintain triple-digit growth forever, but investors need evidence that it remains strong enough to meet the huge expectations for the company.
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