저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
연준(FED)이 임금 인플레이션 억제를 위해 긴축을 유지하는 상황에서, 구인 감소·이직 둔화·JOLTS 구인건수 감소 등 노동시장 냉각 데이터가 나와 피벗(금리 인하 전환) 기대가 커지고 있다고 주장. 시장 바닥 가능성을 언급하지만 단정은 피함. 원자재·공급망 압력 하락도 긍정 신호로 제시하며, 자신의 부동산 투자 스타트업 홍보를 병행.
다듬은 글
is this the bottom of the market let's talk about data that just came out today but first to understand the data that just came out today we have to remember and catch you up with what the Federal Reserve told us was going to Mark Max Payne the FED in their last meeting with Jerome Powell last fomc meeting made it very very clear that inflation itself is no longer the only goal driving inflation down isn't the issue right now because what they believe is in order to drive inflation down they need there to be less job openings because when you have fewer job openings people are less motivated to change jobs that is quit their current job and that's not counting retirements those are counted separately from quits but anyway when people are less motivated to quit their jobs then they stay at their current jobs and we know that quits and then getting a new job usually leads to wages going up not always depends on the market but if less people are quitting then less people are moving to new jobs potentially or likely getting more pay and getting more pay means we're seeing wage inflation and that's exactly what the FED has decided uh-oh we really need to stop this wage inflation because we could create a wage price spiral now if you've been watching my channel since at least this January where I first said we're about to go through a hellish 2022 and I did some selling okay no shame at that but I got a super restore potion here um you know I said look the biggest danger we have in the market is a wage price spiral and generally a wage price spiral occurs when the rate of wage gains is higher than the rate of inflation say my cup is where inflation is if wage gains are here we got a problem in January we had wage gains that were higher they were later revised down but they were higher than inflation it's like oh my gosh this is the start right but then what ended up happening this last meeting is the Fed made us realize that hey look inflation might be at eight percent and job inflation might be at six and a half percent let's just say right I think inflation like 8.3 or whatever but anyway but if inflation Falls quickly to say five percent and job or wage inflation is still at six or seven percent we have a wage spiral a wage spiral is where what people demand for pay goes up so they get paid more that increases costs for businesses when costs for businesses go up they have to raise their prices which they can do as long as they have purchase or pricing power and then they raise their prices but then things get more expensive so employees start demanding more pay and and you kind of get this stair-stepping increasing of wages products going up wages products and services going up right and you get these price increases that only works until something breaks generally the first thing that breaks is people's PP goes away that is the pricing power that companies have goes down so there's a limit and when wages are going up and pricing power like you can't raise prices anymore because you're maxed out on your consumers and pricing power goes down or you start cutting and you see this what you're really doing is compressing company margins they're profits right and so the FED made it really clear that look we might actually see wage inflation so surpass regular inflation and that's really really bad so we are flip-flopping again and by flip-flopping again what we're going to do is we are now going to say that the most important thing going forward is jobs well what's interesting is we got some jobs data this morning and I'm saying that as you see me hold the newspaper which implies that it's old news and that's somewhat true because the job status that we're going to talk about is not in this newspaper but there's something else that's in this newspaper this is the New York Times by the way they don't like me okay they call me a landlord influencer I like to bag on me uh I'm not even a landlord right now I do have a real estate startup that will be a landlord heck it out go to househack.com we're accepting accredited investors and you get the most basically free call options if you join by the end of the month so check that out send in your CPA or attorney letter or get an accredited investor letter at househack.investready.com okay so I'm going to read you some parts of this because it's really really important to help us understand could we potentially be at a bottom of the market where the market is now saying okay well the pressure on the FED to keep being so aggressive is starting to go away that means the fed's more likely to U-turn which means maybe we'll align with the bottom of the market because remember the bottom of the market almost always at least historically has aligned with when the fed's u-turned 89 2003 uh February of 2009 December 2018 and March of 2020.
those were all fed u-turns those were all the bottom of the markets now because we're so aware of that we're trying to price in the bottom before the FED actually u-turns so it wouldn't surprise me that the Market's already 10 higher when the FED actually u-turns but anyway well and that's why we spent so much time studying like all right well what how are things changing right so listen to this uh and I'm just gonna read this like some little Parts here so here's a home furnishing companies uh company that last year in North Carolina was so desperate to hire people to basically paid for a billboard and offered one thousand dollar signing bonuses uh and uh and and they were trying to ramp up their hiring right but they couldn't find anyone in fact they said we just couldn't get labor fast enough uh and and the reason for that is because people were leaving to other jobs uh which generally when people leave to other jobs they get paid more money now this furniture company says quote no one is really chasing employees to the dollar anymore uh now they do go on to say here that the labor markets obviously sell strong but it's actually getting a lot easier to uh find people and less people are quitting and this is going to align with some of the numbers that we see this morning which is really really cool uh but we also know that obviously like Facebook and Google Apple Tesla have have either stalled High hiring or started laying people off in certain segments FedEx has frozen hiring altogether and listen to this from the article here wage growth which soared as companies competed for workers has slowed particularly in Industries like dining and travel where the job market was particularly hot last year the labor force grew by more than three quarters of a million so 750 000 people in August the biggest gain of the labor force since the early months of the pandemic that's a big inflection point right because you get the biggest gains at the beginning some Executives expect hiring to keep getting easier as the economy slows and layoffs pick up with inflation still high weaker wage growth will mean that more workers will find their standard of living slipping so obviously it's not good for like lower income workers but it's good for the FED right because this kind of slowdown would lead to less pressure on the FED to keep aggressively raising Heights High raising rates hiking rates the decline in voluntary departures was particularly notable because so much recent wage growth had come from workers with moving between jobs in search of better pay Recent research has shown that there's been a huge increase in poaching companies hiring workers away from other jobs during the recent hiring boom but that is becoming less common now that was actually research from the FED Reserve Bank of Dallas and St Louis and listen to this there are hints that could be happening a recent survey from another career side zip recruiter of what could be happening is basically less less people quitting right unless uh less uh job openings a recent survey from another career side zip recruiter found that workers have become less confident in their ability to find a job and we're putting more emphasis on finding a job they found secure workers and job Seekers are feeling a bit less bold and a bit more concerned about the future availability of jobs some businesses meanwhile are becoming a bit less frantic to hire a survey of small businesses from the national Federation of Independent businesses found that while many employees employers still had open positions fewer of them expected to fill those jobs in the next three months in other words there's less pressure on making sure they absolutely fill those jobs so this is really good and it actually aligns with data that we got this morning here's what we got this morning folks this chart is a chart of the jolts job opening index it tells us how many job openings there are we actually drone Powell regularly told us that right now uh or when we were above 11 million so sort of in this territory right here we had about 1.9 to two jobs available per unemployed person and Jerome Powell told us this summer he wants to see that ratio to be one to one in other words if we have 6 million unemployed people we want the jolts to be at 6 million that would be a sign of less wage inflation which would mean the FED could take the foot off the gas in terms of hiking rates we can relax now remember the FED always cautions that we can't just use one report and say that oh that's it game over bottom of the market is in fed is done we can't do that because as with inflation what we thought peaked in March didn't actually Peak until June we thought the jolts were going down earlier this year but then they actually increased right let me show you that chart again I just want you to see because this is why it's so important to understand like one report's not enough see look we went down from the peak fall fall oh no increase and then we got our sharp decline so the point is these numbers can be volatile but let me give you the numbers that came out this morning because they're actually pretty good so the expectation for how many job openings we were going to have uh was 11 million 88 000 jobs last month so 11 million 88 000 okay last month we were about 200 000 jobs about that at 11.239 million so what they did is they actually looked back at last month and revised last month down by 69 000.
so there were actually less job openings than they thought last month then the expectation for this month was 11 million but we actually came in at 10. let's go finally finally we're seeing an inflection point finally we're seeing some signs towards the bottom now we can't call it a bottom even though there's so many be falling so many indicators suggesting that uh you know commodity prices are absolutely collapsing uh for example I was looking at um I don't think I have it up right now but let me see if I find it the HSBC uh put together their global economic Outlook and it's a really good read but it's really really um uh it's really really dense but I'll just give you a quick example of just one of the pages here so here you know this is just like number 30 chart 30 and chart 31 I mean this is like I read this kind of stuff this is literally uh 118 pages long okay like I I don't watch other YouTubers I just try to give you proprietary info here and uh look at this supply chain pressures plummeting plummeting supply chain pressures you can see that on the left chart there shipping costs plummeting on the right side they're still elevated right they're still above where we used to be but the point is some of these things were that were dramatically increasing costs uh are starting to decline now we know that Global inflation is is still sneaking up and that's a dangerous part right but when that's represented by these lines around the world right here in chart 27 but we're starting to see and I hate using this phrase but hope and remember some sides and it's really good so I'm very very happy about that um now look if you want to invest with me in house sac and buy deals when this real estate market continues to suffer pain you want to get deals below market value learn about househack whether you're credited or not learn about how go to househack.com if you're not accredited you'd have to wait until about January to invest with us but if you are an accredited investor you can get up to a 60 in free basically call options on the company with your investment read the PPM for a full explanation on that if you're an accredited investor just send us a CPA letter an attorney letter a broker letter or get a letter from uh househack.investready.com submit that after you have your letter by going to househack.com filling out the form applying minimum Investments 25k we'd love to have you we're at almost a 30 million raised in less than 30 days so we're very excited about that and we'd love to have you bye
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