저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 주가 급락(-8.6%)의 원인으로 인도량/생산량 비율 하락, 통화환율 손실(약 10억달러 평가손), AI데이 실망을 꼽음. 인도 백로그 약 30만대가 남아 수요 부족은 아니라고 봄. 환율 손실은 일시적이며 마진 관리 중이라 해석. 최근 주가 하락을 기회로 보고 매수했으며, 5년 보유 시 연평균 수익률이 이전보다 개선됐다고 주장.
다듬은 글
oh man have the fundamentals of Tesla changed after all Tesla down over 8.6 percent while the NASDAQ 100 up 2.27 leading a lot of folks especially retail traders who were a big support for Tesla stock like physically they underlie a lot of the volume for Tesla stock helping prop up Tesla prices and until recently helping Tesla actually outperform the NASDAQ 100 index year to date well folks that has all shifted and there are three major reasons why this has occurred now none of my three reasons are likely things in my opinion at least that you've heard of before at least not with my perspective see by now you already know that a Tesla deliveries missed consensus Expectations by about five percent but that's not actually my first reason in terms of why Tesla fell it has to do with something different an expectation that I think the market has for Tesla that could be entirely wrong let's see if that's true because if it is it could create an opportunity for Tesla and towards the end I'll talk about was this a by the dip opportunity or is this time to just sell forget the fomo that is Tesla and move on well first in order to understand issue number one that I believe the market is seeing we have to understand that there's a ratio that Tesla has known as delivereds to produced it's very simple just go to Q3 2021 for example divide 240 000 delivered units divided by how many units were produced that means you delivered 240 000 Vehicles which is actually more than you made of 238 000 units and you have a delivered to produced ratio of 100.8 percent when the number's over 100 it means you're actually delivering more Vehicles than you've produced in Q4 2021 that ratio was 101 again you delivered more Vehicles than you produced it actually shows that uh manufacturing is behind how many vehicles you're selling in q1 2022 we read 101.5 notice how in those three quarters the numbers actually going up we are delivering more Vehicles than we're producing and production is actually falling behind the deliveries that signals at least to the markets not just supply chain constraints but it also signals potentially and well certainly a lot of excess Demand right and this is where it gets interesting watch this when we go to Q2 we notice that we produced 258 000 units which was obviously low because of the Shanghai shutdowns but we still produced more Vehicles 200 well more we produce more Vehicles than we delivered and that was actually a reversal see in the quarter of the Shanghai shutdowns we produced 258 000 Vehicles 500 plus 580 and we delivered 254 695 that means we actually produced more Vehicles than we delivered in a month or in a quarter where Shanghai was almost completely shut down that's interesting now when we do the ratio instead of being over a hundred percent we're actually at 98.5 delivered to produced now go to Q3 the numbers that just came out we produced way more Vehicles than we delivered we produced 365 923 vehicles and delivered only 343 like the studio that makes Halo 343 830 000 vehicles now what's interesting about that is well 343 830 let me clarify my numbers there sitting at the airport sometimes the numbers just jarble together but anyway what's interesting about that is not only does the production represent a 53 growth weight rate in Q3 2022 to Q3 2021.
but it shows a substantial mismatch between the number of vehicles that were actually able to deliver and produce in fact we only delivered 94 of what we produced this is a complete reversal from what has consistently been a problem at Tesla and the problem a Tesla has always been that we're not able to produce enough Vehicles compared to what we can deliver now however markets just by looking at this data I believe are concerned that the excess demand for Tesla is over that the delivery backlog is not just falling that it's gone that now Tesla is no longer a product that we actually think can sell millions of units per year sure maybe we can get to a 1.5 million annual run rate of vehicles but it's certainly not going to be three four five six 10 million vehicles and it's time to dump Tesla stock see the greatest fear for Wall Street when it comes to Tesla is that not that Tesla will produce the vehicles but that nobody's going to be around to buy them that's the concern especially in what's likely a global recession and these numbers this ratio flip-flopping from last year being over a hundred to now just 94 of of produced Vehicles being delivered is a potential red flag to markets now Tesla argues that this is because of what they call a logistic Nightmare and In fairness they've produced more Vehicles than they ever have before they produced again at a 53 growth rate so maybe that makes sense think about it you want to call up a a company to deliver your Tesla from manufacturing facility to distribution facility and you're like hey I got another 10 Teslas and they're like dude we're already doing like 50 more Teslas than you had for us last year at this time we don't have as many trucks if you want to pay us like double time to drive your cars around sure we'll deliver all of them but we're going to increase your costs twofold for deliveries and Tesla might look at that and go oh that actually will cause even larger issues to our numbers because that'll compress our margin if we have to pay another say thousand or fifteen hundred bucks just to deliver these vehicles in this quarter or we just wait a week and still get the same profit we would have otherwise it just means we have a more disappointing Q3 then we protect our margins so this is actually a case in my opinion of Tesla actually doing what is actually good for shareholders which is reducing cost and preserving margin while at the same time unfortunately disappointing Wall Street see even Elon Musk went to Twitter yesterday and said his job is not to pump the stock so that leads to Temporary pain and a lot of temporary selling at a time when there's not a lot of extra cash and liquidity around to be buying the dip in fact retail buy orders have been trending down over the last two months we used to buy the dip at a rate of 1.1 to 1.3 billion dollars per day in in the market in terms of retail Traders and and now we're under a billion dollars a day in buying the dip it's because the money's running out and so we got less money to to prop up Tesla stock so to speak but this now is an argument that Wall Street and Tesla are going to have and it's one that only time will prove and it will demand patience if you're a Tesla bull you're going to say look there's plenty of demand for Teslas we know that like Tesla's doing the right thing here they're preserving their margins especially at a time they're probably going to get whacked by currency exchange uh fees I think that in Q3 we're going to probably see somewhere around a billion dollar write down in losses simply for currency exchanges which is which is terrible but well that's really problem number two we'll get to that in just a moment uh and so Tesla's decided you know what the last thing we need is is more of an impact to our margin because that's going to lead to even more doubt for the company being able to go forward and actually produce vehicles at scale that'll actually create more damage in the long term than just shifting some of these deliveries from a Q3 to Q4 basically so regarding problem number one here's my belief according to at least what we can see on Twitter and in financial news whether it's Bloomberg or or you know Wall Street expectations we believe that Tesla still has an order backlog around the world of somewhere around 300 000 Vehicles so we don't have a lack of demand issue and this is obviously evidenced or hopefully evidenced by the fact that we still have lead times for vehicles that Rise Above and Beyond uh just supply chain constraints or battery constraints so I actually don't believe we have a demand issue if Tesla actually has a demand issue then it should rightfully be down eight and a half percent in fact it probably should be down more because if Tesla's demand evaporates the stock is screwed you do not want to be anywhere near the stock and remember the last time I confidently said something like that was when a firm was like 65 and I'm like you don't hold this stock going into a recession only some people listen to me but whatever um so problem number two is the currency issue I don't want to just gloss over that I want to make that very clear look right now only 55 of Teslas are actually sold within the United States based on the Q2 report we need that number to go up because you do not have a U.S a strong U.S dollar issue if more vehicles are sold in the United States in fact it actually helps you the strong dollar helps us if more of the vehicles are sold in the United States however if more vehicles are sold in Europe or in Great Britain with a weak pound or a weak Euro or or in China with with a week you on uh even though the Chinese are pulling back you know we know that but even in other areas of Asia their currencies are weakening compared to the dollar then we end up having to take an impairment for currency a foreign exchange impairments uh basically you know you sell a vehicle for you know what should be forty five thousand dollars in uh Chinese yen let's say but by the time you convert it to Dollars you're only left with 40 000 because the currency moved that much in a quarter right that can happen that has happened just look at Great Britain it's a disaster look at the Euro it's a disaster so I think that's going to lead to a big one billion dollar write down uh that's gonna be temporary though we can work that out of margin and see that manufacturing is still scaling margin we can make projections based on that which I expect to be quite bullish the third problem is AI day okay AI day was was for the stock a disaster the robot looked like an idiot it was very hated on Twitter it was compared to a robot that took millions of dollars to develop from uh Honda uh that that took 20 years to develop it was compared to Boston Dynamics who spent two decades uh manufacturing a robot not at scale not with a brain but a programmed robot and what we got was a robot that looked like it couldn't walk the new version couldn't walk the new version looked like it shot itself and quite frankly it was a disaster now I covered all of my thoughts on AI day in my Aid video because what I actually saw was not a disaster I saw a six-month prototype with a brain and one that could be produced at scale one that actually makes me incredibly bullish and I don't even have the Tesla bot in my valuation that's just extra cream pie baby or extra icing on the cake I I don't know one of those anyway the other thing is I was in full self driving this weekend and finally I could say this thing's actually driving a little bit more like a human it doesn't sit for 10 minutes at a red light on a right turn lane waiting to turn right it actually goes it moves it doesn't stop at a stop sign when nobody's around I mean it still stops at the stop sign but what I mean like waiting forever it actually like goes like a human in some cases and it shouldn't do this but in some cases it actually rolls the stop sign which I actually think is quite hilarious because it is driving like a human and it's doing it in in a in a way that a human would but it's actually doing really well so I'm I personally breaking apart these issues here going backwards FSD massively bullish more bullish than I've ever been and I still don't have it myself I had to get in somebody else's car thank you to the person who let me drive with it or in it AI Day Disaster for the stock phenomenal for AI by the way did you notice their labeling was just like the labeling that we do for the house hack AI I got a lot of hate for the househack AI for the vision AI that we use for determining wedge Deals they had the same radial buttons that same old look it was great it was such an honor I'm like damn Tesla's labeling Vision just like Kevin's labeling Vision I mean then they also do Vision Video labeling which is much more impressive I mean but that you don't need to video label real estate it's pretty static um again going backwards the currency issue will be a temporary hit that will hurt us temporarily that'll hurt EPS temporarily which means Tesla will look more Rich valuation will rise temporarily uh and honestly the the delivery issues I I side with Tesla on this I don't want them to spend more money squeezing these into the last minute uh you know delivery process save the money on the deliveries take a little longer to deliver them take your time but I'm actually really impressed by the production because I know the demand is there the demand is there so I'm not worried about the deliveries even though that ratio is flipped that's a Wall Street problem but a 53 growth rate on production holy so what did I do I bought the dip all right I bought the dip I got somewhere around 27k shares pre-split still haven't divided it I don't know what would that be let's just do it in my head right now that would be 81 000 25 times 3 is 75 3 times 2 is 6.
yeah like 81 000 shares-ish something like that I don't know I need to actually update it and do the math but anyway I bought the dip today and if we look at the valuation now it's actually improved so last time we did my spreadsheet if you held Tesla for five years I believed that we would get to a Target into the 500s it was like 580 or something like that you'd have a compounded annual return of like 19 well now because of the sell-off if you held Tesla today for five years in my opinion the compounded annual return for Tesla would be closer to 23 because you're getting it at a lower price my thoughts if you haven't heard this stuff before let me know in the comments down below I actually want to make sure I continue to provide value that's unique and I just I I don't want to just rehash the garbage that other people say or or tell you to go buy index funds or you know something boring anyway thank you bye
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