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Hello, I'm Shachi, and I'm here to give you a lecture on the three-step course in the far countryside of Dogo. Today's topic is analyzing past performance in Excel. I'll be verifying three patterns to see how much you need to invest to make 100 million yen in 10 years. I'll also be sharing my future investment strategy at the end of the video, so please do n't miss it.
My profile is above, so please take a look if you're interested. My investment style is to invest 50,000 yen monthly in Nasdaq on Rakuten, average down on SOX on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and also target emerging markets with the second-best Indian ETF, and play around with the rest of the time with individual stocks and leveraged ETFs.
My target portfolio is as shown on the right. This channel is basically a channel specializing in leveraged Nasdaq and SOX. It's a channel that delivers data analysis, economic indicator analysis, latest news analysis, and technical analysis in an easy-to-understand animated format, even for beginners.
Unlike hype channels or channels that focus on mental training to win, this channel delivers meaningful content that can be used in trading. Please subscribe to the channel and click the notification button next to subscribe to wait for updates. Now, let's get to the main topic. I deleted the previous video for reasons I won't go into, so I'd like to thoroughly compare the performance of the semiconductor 3x bull, SO XL, once again.
Today's topic is how much initial investment is needed to reach 100 million yen in 10 years, so I'd like to examine three patterns based on the past 12 years of performance. First, let's look at the setting date of the SO XL. The SO XL setting date is March 11, 2010, so it's here on the chart. This is a screenshot from TradingView, and since there was no data before March 11 on TradingView, it's probably the setting date when trading started.
The closing price on that day was $0.64, so I'd like to start the examination from $0.64 on this setting date. So, let's start with pattern 1. This chart shows the peak of the COVID-19 bubble. This is here. This is where the peak was reached on January 4, 2022, at $14.21. So pattern 1 is I will now examine the period from the time of inception until the peak price of 714.21 on January 4, 2022.
This period is about 11 years and 10 months, but this time I will examine it over 12 years. In other words, in 12 years, $1064 became $704.21, which is 116 times, and when converted to an annual rate, it is 40.2%. Assuming that this annual rate of 40.2% is consistently achieved, an initial investment of 1,920,000 yen is needed to reach 100 million yen in 10 years.
If you invest 1.92 million yen in a lump sum and operate it at 40.2%, you will reach 100 million yen in 10 years. Now, moving on to pattern 2, my prediction is that soxl will fall to single digits, but in this examination, I will examine what kind of performance it will have if it falls to $10. The graph for the examination is here, an examination of a fall to $10 over 12 years from the time of inception.
So, over 12 years, it went from $0.64 to $10, a multiplier of 15.6, which is 23.1% when calculated annually. That's amazing, isn't it? It's still 23%. Now, with this 23.1% performance, to make 100 million in 10 years, you would need an initial investment of 150,000 yen per trade. With 150,000 yen per trade, you would reach 100 million in 10 years.
Let's examine Pattern 3 with water. Look at this chart. This area circled in red is a huge box market, isn't it? This is between 2010 and 2016. During this period, it was a wide range market, going back and forth between taking $0.4. And after two years of trading between taking $0.4 and taking $1, it finally broke out of the market and turned into a full-fledged upward trend from the beginning of 2016.
So, Pattern 3 is from the beginning of 2016 to the point where it hit $714.21 during the corona bubble. We will examine this long-day upward trend. This period is 6 years. It rose from $1.41 to a whopping $14.21. The multiplier for this category is 2.6 times, and when calculated on an annual basis, it has achieved a figure of 67.9%.
Now, with this performance of 67.9%, in 10 years you would need to invest just 140,000 yen to reach 100 million yen. 140,000 yen! That's enough for the starting salary of a high school graduate working in a company, is n't it? To be honest, this performance was achieved through incredibly strong results from 2016 to 2020, and even in the bubble after 2020, the stock price rose unbelievably due to the double punch of earnings and financial markets, so I don't think this performance will continue in the future.
So, next I would like to examine these three patterns over a shorter period. First, pattern 1, which achieved an annual return of 40.2% from the setting date to the highest point. In this case, the amount needed to reach 100 million yen in 3 years is 3,000 To turn 540,000 yen into 100 million yen in 5 years, the required investment is 3.85 million yen.
Next is Pattern 2, which achieved an annual return of 23.1% from the initial investment date up to the predicted $10. In this case, the initial investment required to reach 100 million yen in 3 years was 50 million yen, and in 5 years it was 31.86 million yen. Next is Pattern 3, which grew 50 times over a 6-year span from 2016 to its peak, achieving an annual growth of 67.9%.
In this case, the investment required is 3.79 million yen in 3 years, and the investment required to reach 100 million yen in 5 years is 3.68 million yen. So, even with an investment amount equivalent to the annual salary of a salaried worker, you can reach 100 million yen in 5 years, which is an incredible 67.9% return.
As I mentioned earlier, this last Pattern 3 benefited from a double whammy of the central bank's unlimited quantitative easing and the huge increase in demand for semiconductors due to people staying at home, which caused stock prices to rise sharply. Therefore, the central bank of the cats will probably not engage in excessive monetary easing unless something drastic happens.
There is also the cost of causing this much inflation, so considering that, the future of semiconductors is certainly bright. I think it would be good to calculate around 30% between pattern 1 and pattern 2. It's probably around 30%. I think the investment amount needed one year after the escape will be about 40 million yen, and the investment amount needed five years later will be around 20 million yen.
Finally, I would like to tell you about future investment strategies. This chart is the NDX chart for the Nasdaq 100, and as of Friday's closing price, it has fallen quite a bit to 10003,356 points. Below that, there is a support line around 13000 points, which has been supported many times. If the Nasdaq 100 breaks below this 13000 point line, it will fall sharply to 12400 points.
I predict this will happen. This prediction was made around mid-January when Nasdaq's stock price was still strong. I tweeted on Twitter that inflation really isn't going away, the Nasdaq 100's 200-day moving average is ideal, and if it falls below this value, it will likely fall from 12,500 to 12,400, and then rebound around 14,000 dollars, with the bottom likely to be from the end of March to May.
That was the prediction I made in the tweet. The current stock price movement is unfolding exactly as I predicted. Moreover, this 13,000- point support line has been stopped twice, on February 24th and March 14th. So if it reaches this 3,000-point line, it will be the third attempt, and this third attempt is likely to break through downwards.
When I made this prediction in the tweet in mid-January, the war between Russia and Ukraine hadn't even started yet. My prediction was that tapering would be over and the earnings market would start to collapse from the April earnings announcements. I predicted that stock prices would bottom out around here due to the monetary easing and interest rate hikes.
So now, I'm looking at the situation more pessimistically because of the Russia-Ukraine war, and I think that the global situation will continue to be high, with the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war causing prices for materials and food to soar or remain high. This will accelerate the monetary easing of central banks around the world.
I predict that even the chairman of the US central bank, Powell, will shift from one end to the other. And I predict that food problems will intensify in developing countries around the world, leading to conflicts in various places. Furthermore, as restrictions on exports and imports to Russia and the suspension of services continue to be imposed by various countries due to the Ukraine war, the risk of bankruptcy is approaching not only small and medium-sized enterprises but also large corporations.
Considering all of this, I anticipate that Rack 100 will not only fall from 12,500 points to 12,400 points, but will also fall to the level of 9,700 points, which is the level before the recent shock. As for future investment strategies, first, after confirming that the Nasdaq 100 has fallen to around 12,000 points, we will wait for a weekly MACD golden cross.
For this weekly MACD setting, we will use the Q24 parameter. If you're wondering what I'm talking about, I've explained this in detail in a video I previously uploaded called "The Strongest Investment When a Big Crash Comes, Version Good Points 0," so please take a look at that. Once this weekly MACD golden cross occurs, we will make our first purchase.
I anticipate that it will fall to around 9,700 points, so I expect two to three weekly MACD golden crosses to occur during this time. Therefore, I think we will be investing funds in 23 separate installments up to 9,700 points. When it falls to 9,700 points, I expect it to rise slowly and steadily rather than rebound sharply.
For reference, at the bottom of the chart, it was at its peak like a bubble. The pattern of the price falling once, rebounding, then falling again, and then breaking below the previous low line and dropping sharply, was seen in the IT bubble and the Lehman Shock. The number of times the price breaks below the previous low and hits that point is called a " golden cross." In the IT bubble, there were 6 weekly golden crosses and 34 daily golden crosses.
In the Lehman Shock, there was 1 weekly golden cross and 6 daily golden crosses. If you look at the chart from the Lehman Shock, you can see that the period between reaching the highest point, falling once, and rebounding was quite long, about six months. Perhaps because of that, there was only 1 weekly golden cross.
However, in the current bubble, I see that there will be around 22 to 23 weekly golden crosses. If this is too complicated and you don't understand it at all, please check out my community for subscribers on my YouTube channel or my Twitter where I share buying timings. Please subscribe to the channel and follow me on Twitter.
I think I'll wrap things up here. This channel is about lever talk and so xl, so please like and subscribe. That's all for now. Woo-doo
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