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well he double hockey sticks i'm a little bit concerned because uh my concerns of the market was gonna sell off after fed jerome powell's speech were wrong immediately after jerome spoke but they are proving correct today after all all we got yesterday was coddling and the market was really comfortable with the coddling it got from jerome powell talked to us like we were five today though reality set in and the fed did nothing for us yesterday they didn't say they were gonna buy more bonds they didn't say they were going to do yield curve controls they didn't say banks could leave more of their money in the markets rather than in reserves by extending the liquidity reserve requirements we have none of that we literally got nothing today that coddling cuddliness we got from yesterday is gone so what instead do we have well we get to look at bond yields which those are not very pretty and nobody's really talking about this but it's so important so i'm going to briefly review this five-year chart which tends to have a larger correlation with the stock market over the 10-year the stock market seems to be a little bit more sensitive to the five-year but anyway obviously this is this is the one-year chart of the five uh five-year bond here we see obviously rates coming down trending down from august roughly to uh the end of december we get this slope of an increase here this red line that we've got here we see a nice solid you know sustained increase of bond yields where things are really becoming a problem is here recently since january this is the slope we have had of bond yields increasing that is a much much more rapid pace then obviously the red line increase here uh and it just gets worse here around february 19th which is approximately when we hit uh the peak of the tech market and then we started having the tech wreck for about two weeks and then lately we've just been volatile up and down it's been pretty much a disaster you can see the slope of this line is even more steep this becomes a concern because we might very well run to new highs very quickly in bonds and over this next three month period here my warning holds firm and this is a warning i came up with about a week and a half ago when the market was nice and green and recovering and everything was beautiful we're like yeah we bought the dip everything's all good i'm like we gotta be careful don't get lulled into uh overconfidence okay just because we bought the dip and maybe we're up on some of our dip buys or we're not as down as we were before doesn't mean we can walk around in this market overconfident so thinking that oh there's no way it's going to fall again it can and in my opinion if this acceleration in these bond yields continues which i think it will we're going to see some serious pain over the next three months especially as cpi data comes in higher than expected we know it's going to come in higher than expected year over year month to month could come in temporarily high as well the problem is i really think the market's going to hear jerome powell say inflation's going to go up temporarily and all they will have heard was inflation's going to go up oh you said it shut it sell everything it's it's the weenie babies of this world that are like if we even have inflation temporarily i'm gonna move all of my funds assets or we're gonna take a lot of our funds assets and we're gonna go out of high value tech the companies that are changing the freaking world the companies that have high multiples because they are companies that are transforming the world the reason tesla has a future in my opinion forward pe of 70 is because by 2030 tesla's not going to be done growing tesla is just going to be at the beginning of this massive climate change driven revolution towards ev and energy and solar that we're seeing electrifying semi-trucks oh my gosh it's going to be it's going to be 30 40 years before we actually electrify our car fleets out here here we are worried about what's going to happen in the next six months we've got 40 years of ev growth ahead of us people like oh tesla's going to stop growing in 2030 really like the the point here is you've got to ask yourself do you want to be with the weenie babies right now who are investing in companies that are sure maybe beat down because of the pandemic maybe get a short-term bump back there's no problem with that that's not necessarily a bad thing it's a great sort of momentum trade hey encourage looking into that look for those beat down companies i mean heck you want beat down companies look at lordstown now i'm not endorsing lordstown yet but i'll tell you in terms of beatdown that's beat down i'll do some research on lawrence town we'll see do we wanna do we wanna jump into the negative news like i'd rather jump into the fire pit with some of my favorite stocks when they're down and double down on my positions in the fire pit then go chasing stocks that are getting hyped up or that are getting rotated into by the weenie babies so the thing about the weenie babies is they're very very emotional as soon as we realize and i think we gotta get through these next three months i think you know once we get to like may june june july and we start realizing oh okay okay maybe jerome was right maybe inflation is subsiding in the event that happens we're gonna see these weenie babies rotate right back and to me as painful as it seems to be sitting here going ah man like we were just up three percent and now we're down five again and then it's like oh we're up we're up three the next day and then oh we're down six now you know like it really feels like one step forward and two step backs back this market and it's it's really tempting to say that's it that's it sell out sell out i can't take the pain anymore it's the same thing right it's the same thing as what we were talking about during the crash your fight-or-flight instincts turn on it's like i just i can't take the the day after day one step four two steps back i can't take anymore it motivates you to get out and these companies that are going to change the world over the next 30 years uh and personally this is the best time to be adding to those types of positions now advice part and not financial advice of course this is just for entertainment purposes only because i'm just a dude on youtube who suggests that you should totally check out my programs on building your wealth link down below using the 38 off coupon code because well we extended it for a couple days as people are getting their stimulus checks and supposedly everybody's supposed to have their stimulus checks by tomorrow but anyway what's what's kind of my thinking here so my thinking is look as much as possible i am identifying opportunities that as soon as they fall below certain price points i'm going to be buying them heavy obviously i announce all of the buys that i make in the stocks and psychology money group but the point here is i think possibly you might be considering or should consider doing the same thing as well ask yourself forget what what prices went up or down today or yesterday or last week look at the actual prices themselves and compare that to what you think the company's worth and then look hey if we can get another 10 discount over the next few weeks what if we get another 20 30 discount over the next few weeks first question that should be going through your mind is am i going to get margin called because if you're going into this madness these next three months over 20 margin i think you're doing it wrong i think you're really doing it wrong uh right now as of my last calc's i'm right about 20 a 28.2 margin so i'm getting down under 20.
and that's without selling any stocks although i'm considering doing a couple cells and then i'll really have i'll really be right at 20 so we'll see what happens there but the point is right now if you're good on margin identify those stocks and maybe consider even setting some limit orders where you look and say hey all right we know tesla's 666.
can i get 625 again can i get 39 again on neo can i get 23 again on lucid can i get 140 again on end phase are we gonna go sub 200 on docusign or is etsy gonna go under 190. look don't get me wrong the high flying stocks of the day are always the sexy ones to look at too right and this is what happens you get a stock like uh startup i'm sorry startup uh upstart that's uh that's up 40 50 on the day then it goes trending on robin hood everybody buys in at peaks and the thing goes up a hundred percent look that that is freaking amazing i and so far i'm bullish on what i'm seeing in upstart uh but i have to say personally don't love the idea of chasing the high-flying trending stocks i'm trying to look where other people aren't looking like some of the names that i mentioned here and one of the reasons for that is the next three months are gonna be painful and i strongly believe that and i'm planning for that pain but the nine months after these next three months like once these three months go by and then we get to the next year from say you know june july all the way to june july of 2022 do i really think the tech stocks i'm buying today are going to be cheaper than where they are today personally i don't think so maybe that has to do with my inflation beliefs maybe you've got to ask yourself do i actually think we're fighting deflation and the reason we're not seeing so much inflation is because we're money printing our way out of deflation because of global competitiveness globalism uh capitalism leading to price cuts and price competitiveness and technology leading prices to decline do you believe that or do you believe look man biden's gonna come in raise taxes we're gonna get the infrastructure man all this spending oh my gosh three plus 1.9 that's 4.9 trillion dollars that's like 25 of our gdp a little less 24 23 of our gdp that's that's not like how could there not be inflation if you believe that that's fine then hedge yourself and what's doing well in the inflationary time right now we call it the reflation trade right reflation stocks are are classic banks commodities and the ones that are deemed to be a value right which right now is retail hospitality travel the airlines and so on this is all part of the big what i call the weenie baby rotation and that's not to say you can't make money on those stocks i'm not mad at you if you're making money on the airlines or carnival no no i want you to know i'm happy for you all i want to say is it these things come and go in cycles so if you're tech heavy and you feel like you're bleeding it's normal if you're recovery and and reflation heavy and you're winning right now good great that's awesome but look for those opportunities where things are selling off now how bad do i think this can get this market volatility and crash crap over the next three months i think we can revisit pretty close to some of the lows that we've seen over the past few weeks but i don't think we're going to get exactly to those lows or exceed those now i could be wrong but here's my thought when we first got hit with this boom bond yields going up and everybody's like we'll sell everything i think we had a substantial overreaction so some of those really low prices we saw like if we pull up tesla for example uh just as a simple easy one to pull up we know there was a time this thing went down to somewhere around 530 a share uh pretty dang low let's see here so going into the days interval we had five thirty nine was the low when we pull up weeble here uh 539 was the recent low uh i would not be surprised to see us sort of leave the bounds that we've been trading in the last few days retest these lows and in fact i'll draw a line down we'll see how it goes wouldn't be surprised if we get within about 10 of that which would be somewhere around 580 something like that wouldn't be surprised if we end up testing you know have some volatility maybe we'll trade within the lines here it's possible we could dip down again to some of these levels i think if tesla to me goes under a six uh it's time for me to start really buying some more maybe even like 610 somewhere here so like this is going to be my buy range right here uh all of this is going to be my hold range and certainly if it goes up it's just 10 d's but i'll have cash on the side so that if we do revisit some of these lows over here and we're within 10 of the bottoms 10 10 to 20 of the bottoms that we saw on uh march 8th march 9th around that period of time march 7th right around there then uh then that's going to be time for me to buy because i don't know that and certainly what do i know but again i i believe because we had that peak shock factor that slap in the face that markets are more like okay all right we get it bonds are going up yeah we might not have we might have another jump of bond yields going up again maybe the 10 year will go over two percent right uh and and we'll see more of these sort of v's and this sort of jagger as we re adjust here uh over time i think this is all just going to be a little blip on the radar but it just would not shock me at all and so that's going to be my current target for a lot of stocks you know even if we go on over to like a neo or palantir pound here being you know relatively close to some of these numbers pound here though did go down to 20 on its lowest day uh down into the 22s for a period of time here so uh same thing here if i went 10 20 somewhere around here probably would have to be around 22 for something like pound here uh to really say okay here's a 22 line we're close here so somewhere between these this area here maybe under 23 for palantir somewhere kind of in this box right here so if we break through the bottom here maybe it's time to go shopping again and again these are just my projections my opinions i'd rather at these levels i'd rather hold cash is the argument so i'd rather hold cash right now just in case uh you know that dip comes if it doesn't come that's right we've got enough attendees in the oven so to speak and those will print really nicely if we fall i go shopping again but i'm gonna wait to be within 10 to 20 percent of those rock bottoms so just to do another example here let's uh let's pick just one more here why don't we pick uh i don't know we'll pick zillow okay just out of nowhere here let's let's pick zillow so zillow uh just here in this last crash here went down to about 122 ish we're at 133 so we're already kind of retesting into those spaces same thing look at this i mean now the market is just continuing to sell off here uh for example look at a square square went down to 191 10 is going to be about 210 so again this is me thinking we're not going to hit that dead bottom again but i wouldn't be shocked if we retest some of those figures so it wouldn't shock me if we go back into that range of 220 to 210 over here at square i don't think we're going to reach those those low lows over here we had a lot of buying pressure come in when we really hit these lows of the day here and that's why we barely we didn't even close at those lows right that was just intraday but anyway those are my thoughts on pricing because when that rotation rotates back which it always does and it's so hard to say that when it hasn't happened yet because it's like oh god well what if it doesn't what if inflation comes and it all just goes to zero you know those are the fears that we mentally drive into our mind especially when we look at things like the pawn chart that we're talking about here with this increasing slope that we continue to see yeah i mean it makes you nervous right you you don't get blamed for feeling nervous about this and so ultimately my strategy is just very simple focus on what i know is going to do well long term i know that in the short term reflection stocks are going to do well i want people to make money there i'm grateful for that i want to make money in the long term mostly because i don't want to go into reflation make money sell try to time my way into tech when the rotation comes back pay taxes potentially miss the opportunity have loaded up on on tech or some of these other stocks that i like like the the etsy's and so on and uh and then try to buy in at higher prices plus pay taxes by missing the bottom not interested uh so those are my thoughts now uh i do want to say here's your slope let's do this one more time here this is our slope of the 10 year this time uh we are on the 10 year and the 10-year right now is at 1.73 let's go back to about six months here so instead of a year so the last six months you can see we've had uh sort of a growth here from about september to where we are now of the red line let's do a slope here from top of market uh like feb 16 here yeah we see the rate is accelerating here also the green line has an accelerated slope certainly if we go over here to feb sec or march 2nd same problem and if we continue to go in over here uh yeah yeah look at that even if i just go from peak to peak over here we still have a higher slope than we do at the green point here so rates are still accelerating at a faster pace than uh or growing at a faster rate than uh than we even had at the end of february so the short-term forecast not so good and i'm a little bit concerned about it but i'm staying true to my strategy and i'm diamond handing
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