저자: 제이비 · 한국인
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AMD 실적 발표 후 반도체 하락 우려로 SOXL을 익절했다고 밝히며, 최근 은행 위기와 고용 둔화로 경기침체 우려가 커져 채권·금 등 안전자산 선호가 강해졌다고 주장. 미국 은행주(지역은행) 급락, WTI 5% 하락을 경기 악화 신호로 해석. 향후 추가 매수 기회가 나오면 커뮤니티로 알리겠다고 함.
다듬은 글
Yes, hello. Before starting today's video, I would like to begin by expressing my gratitude. Membership member Haengsu Heungsu— I'm a bit unsure how to pronounce that name—anyway, Hingskim has sent us a valuable Super Dance sponsorship. I am already grateful enough just for you joining the membership, but I am truly thankful that you went ahead and sent a Super Dance sponsorship like this.
I will do my best to ensure you can continue to receive a lot of help through the membership community board. First off, yesterday, a situation unfolded that should have been quite thrilling for us. Just yesterday, I uploaded a video telling people not to worry because I was going to release TMF-5. TMF immediately surged nearly 7%, recovering a significant portion—though not all—of the previous day's losses in just one day through this massive rise.
Furthermore, early the next morning, I mentioned on the real-time community board that I would take profits on SOXL because, considering factors like insider selling before AMD's earnings announcement and stock movements after Intel's, AMD's earnings announcement seemed a bit unstable. I understand that many membership members joined me in leeching SOXL at that time.
As if the intraday decline in SOXL wasn't enough, AMD plummeted 6.5% following its earnings announcement, making it highly likely that the semiconductor sector will fall further once the market opens today. Congratulations to everyone who took profits yesterday. Since there appears to be some volatility today, I will monitor the situation and, if any stocks become available for additional purchase—whether they are bank stocks or something else—I will inform our membership members immediately via the community board.
Now, regarding yesterday's market conditions, the stock market was once again in chaos due to issues stemming from banks. However, we are well on our toes. After all, we were holding onto our cash well, having already taken profits on SOXL before the decline the previous day. First, a key economic indicator that influenced yesterday's market was the Zoltz report on 9-person turnover.
It recorded 9.59 million cases, a decrease of 384,000 from the previous month. As the figures for the 9-person turnover report continue to decline, it has certainly heightened anxiety about an economic recession. And if we look closely at this, there is a part we particularly need to pay attention to.
The name of this report is "9-Person Turnover." Since this is a report, we need to carefully examine both recruitment and job turnover. First off, it is only natural that these factors have reduced new hiring. Also, looking at the data, the turnover rate has n't increased much, but the number of layoffs has.
In the past, there wasn't a significant difference between the layoff rate and the turnover rate. What this means is that even if someone was laid off from their current job, they could simply move to another one, so the unemployment rate didn't rise much, and it was difficult to control wage inflation.
Since there were plenty of places hiring anyway, this situation is becoming increasingly difficult. Of course, the figures aren't exactly something we can fully rejoice about yet. Compared to the pre-COVID era, the labor market still appears strong; there are 1.6 job postings per unemployed person. For reference, it was 1.2 before COVID.
However, the important thing is that the numbers are continuously decreasing. Looking closer, the construction sector saw the most layoffs. Nearly 110,000 people were laid off in this sector alone in just one month. However, since the downturn in the construction industry was something we could have somewhat anticipated, we can accept that.
But even in the accommodation and food service sector, which had been incredibly strong, the number of layoffs increased, with 60,000 this time... Layoff figures have been released, so looking at this alone, it seems we can definitely interpret it as the labor market cooling down. Further supporting this view is the 2.5% decrease in the turnover rate.
This indicates that fewer workers are voluntarily quitting their jobs, which is also a factor worth viewing quite positively. Anyway, looking at this alone, since there is room for the Fed to be unable to raise interest rates aggressively due to concerns about a recession, it is naturally good for bonds, but in fact, it should have been good for stocks as well.
However, when I looked into why stocks fell so much yesterday, there were various reasons, but ultimately, the issue of bank failures resurfaced. The collapse of a bank is bound to have a massive impact on the asset market. In particular, regional banks like PegWest and West Alliance Bank fell by a massive margin; they dropped by over 40%, and trading was suspended multiple times.
Consequently, the DPST, which tracks regional banks with 3x leverage, fell by nearly 19%, and major banks also dropped significantly in tandem. While there may be various reasons for this situation with banks, if we look at the information released by Goldman Sachs, the day before... JPMorgan announced the acquisition of First Republic, but in reality, they only acquired assets with tangible value; unlike in the past, there was absolutely no government-level deposit protection or stock bailout.
Shareholders simply ended up losing all their money. Consequently, amidst a market already pervasive with anxiety, hatch funds heavily shorted the banking sector. Since investor sentiment was so unstable, even the slightest fluctuation was enough to trigger massive sell-offs. Furthermore, data released by the research firm CFR also fueled anxiety in the banking sector.
With bank failures continuing to erupt, it is all too obvious that future regulations on banks or increases in deposit insurance premiums will follow. The question now is how much of a blow this will deal to bank profitability. They projected that earnings for the banking sector would decline by 14% over the next year, 7% over two years, and 5% over three years—and even data like this.
You can understand that major banks naturally plummeted one after another as the announcement was made. So, anyway, yesterday, you can see that bond prices fell again and the stock market declined due to the recessionary atmosphere revealed in the Zoltz House of Nine report, coupled with the resurgence of the banking crisis and a preference for safe assets.
Now, looking at yesterday, WTI crude oil prices fell by a whopping 5.29% to $71 per barrel, completely devastating energy companies. The fact that oil continues to fall like this despite OPAC's sudden production cuts a while ago ultimately indicates that the economy is bad. There was also the low Purchasing Managers' Index for China's manufacturing sector, and yesterday, European inflation figures rose again compared to the previous month.
If inflation continues to go unchecked, the probability of the European Central Bank raising the benchmark interest rate again seems very high. If this happens, the already bad economy will worsen even further, so you can view the sharp drop in oil prices as a reflection of this. And gold, a safe asset, also surged.
Ultimately, judging by the indicators released yesterday, it implies that the economy will continue to deteriorate. Regarding bonds... I believe our investment judgment was not wrong. As I mentioned at the beginning, if the stock market shows rapid volatility prior to the FOMC meeting and I identify opportunities for additional purchases, I will buy them immediately and inform our membership members through the community board.
Okay, then, we will end today's video here. I would like to thank everyone who newly joined the membership today and wrap up. Thank you, ddss, for joining the McDonald's membership. Thank you, Bobby Bobby, for upgrading to the McDonald's membership. Thank you, Park Si-hong, for joining the McDonald's membership.
Thank you, Bulls King, for joining the Starbucks membership. Thank you, Wangttawoojin, for joining the Starbucks membership. Thank you, Daebak, for joining the Starbucks membership. Thank you, Kwon Kyung-hoon, for joining the Starbucks membership. Thank you, HJ Juin, for joining the Starbucks membership.
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I extend my deepest gratitude to everyone who has joined the membership. By joining, you can watch videos where I discuss various market conditions more comfortably without worrying about view counts. Also, starting with the Starbucks membership, you can view real-time posts I upload to the community board whenever important matters arise, so please show your interest.
Finally, I extend my deepest gratitude to all subscribers who take the time to watch my videos and leave supportive comments. Moving forward, I will do my utmost to create mental care videos for the long-term investment success of all my subscribers, without a single person's selfishness. Thank you.
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