원문 보기
Here it is. Here is a somersault. Landing. I mean, they did it now. What did they do? Two or three jumps ahead of us, and they did all of them well. I have to admit, man, that was pretty impressive. We jumped through the entire line of production cars available for sale. Very, very impressive. 10 boosters or jet engines, depending on configuration.
I mean, it's phenomenal. What a cool demonstration. Production will begin in 2028. That is, it could even be the last day of 2028, but it's still a deadline. This is actually going into production in two years. Of course, we've heard a lot of promises about the Tesla Roadster, what it will be like, what will happen, and when it will arrive.
They've been promising this for nine years. But let's figure out what it was. What does this mean for stocks? What does this mean for the company? So, here's the main thing. The Tesla Roadster event just happened. The Tesla Roadster is nine years late. And by the time it goes into production, it will be 11 years late.
They started the live broadcast at 7:55 PM tonight, which is a reference to 1955 , the year of the movie Back to the Future. There were no people in the demo car, but essentially you have these suction jets or fans that hold the car up so it doesn't fall over when it's upside down on the ramp. Or when turning, it can keep you from flipping over if you enter the turn too quickly.
Elon calls it not necessarily the safest, but the most fun car. OK. They also claim that this will be the only Tesla-made car that will be designed for manual driving in the future. Remember, they had to keep the audience a long way from this car, because at least now it's too loud and can damage your hearing if you get too close.
It is worth paying attention to the distance of the stage from the scene. We can walk through here so you can see some of this in the recording. This is a scene. This is where the event takes place. You know, they're showing B-roll footage of this Roadster getting ready to go out. They talk for a bit and then want to show the event itself.
And here's the moment when the car—you can see how far away even the cameras are —sucks up to this ramp and holds still. You can see the downforce at the bottom left . 4700 kg of downforce when the car is overturned at 170°. Did you notice a small " Easter egg" there? 69 feet in the air. You can see it in the lower right corner.
69 feet in the air—that's the height it was held at with 4,700 kg of downforce, which is impressive. And then, of course, if we fast forward a little bit, we'll see the launch itself. The landing looked a bit rough. If I were a pilot, I would say, " Okay, yeah, that was cool." You kind of, you kind of let it go at the end.
But the main thing is that he landed. I don't mean to criticize, but look how far away from the audience, right? I mean, it's done away from the public because it's so loud. This is exactly what was leaked to us in the information. They said, "Listen, there won't be anyone inside. " It will be controlled remotely.
This is not an autonomous vehicle. Elon gave us a lot of references to the movie Back to the Future, saying that the time is almost here, beyond the movies, beyond the imagination, time is everything. These are all quotes from Back to the Future. And what's remarkable about the next Tesla is how far away the audience is.
I mean, it's far. You can see that the audience lights are far behind. Here is the scene. The stage is there on the left. You can see it from a different angle. I'll open up another angle so you can see the scene better, but it's weird because I don't know how they're going to make these accelerators run less loudly.
And that's a little problematic because I do n't know how we're going to get this into production in 2028. Now, supposedly , the car is actually capable, and we've seen a demonstration, with the right timing , of going from 0 to 60 in under a second, and potentially even as little as 0.81 seconds, which is impressive.
Here's a better view of the parking lot where the ramp is located. So, this is not where the audience actually stood. It's more like a parking lot, and that's where they made the jump. That's it. This gives you a better overview. Okay, yes, like this. So you can see the parking lot when they zoomed in on the image .
So now you can clearly see how far away that springboard really was . I don't know how in 2 years they're going to make these powerful suction fans and jet engines, which can apparently transform, be able to be switched from high suction mode to high acceleration mode , which is very interesting. Elon had special words for this, but the gist of it is, "Hey, we can pin you to the ground when you're going into a turn fast." Elon literally says, "This car is really cool" (or "it sucks hard").
They call it low speed suction mode, or they can go into high speed mode, which is high downforce mode, and they also have a high speed or low drag mode where they open the front flaps for these rear fans to create even more flow under the car. Engineers said that the maximum speed of this vehicle will be around 370 km/h.
Elon Musk said he wants to accelerate it to Mach 5, or 615 km/h. Not sure if this will happen, but it sounds really cool. So, their next stunt will be a jump over the Snake River Canyon, which is obviously a reference to Evel Knievel. This vehicle provides 2 G overload, has 10 nozzles and 650 kg of ultra-high pressure compressed air cylinders.
Instead of two rear seats, you get compressed air cylinders. And they can recharge after stopping, which is very interesting. So, the main thing here is that no one will be able to take delivery of this car, in my opinion , before 2029. They say production will start in 2028, but we know how it worked before.
Historically, they have never been particularly prompt in meeting their deadlines. This is, you know, a 9-year delay, you understand? It started when I had one child. In 2021, Elon, well, they promised that it would be released in 2020. This was the first promised year of deliveries. Then, due to COVID, it was postponed for 12–18 months.
It was moved from 2021 to the 23rd, and the 23rd was moved to the 24th. Then they said deliveries would start on the 25th. In the 25th, they announced that they would make the most epic demonstration at the end of the year. They then scheduled the demonstration for April 1, 2026, which ultimately turned out to be an April Fool's joke.
Then on March 17th they said they were hoping for next month, it would be a real bombshell. As a result, you know, we were told that the event was postponed for about a month during the April 2026 earnings report . And then there was supposed to be a show on October 1st, which was postponed for 2 weeks due to the weather.
So that's eight delays already, right? So I'm not very optimistic about this goal—2028, but that's their goal. I don't see how they're going to make the sound so loud that it won't destroy your eardrums. You may need to wear headphones when you are inside. But this is really cool. The vehicle looks great.
Let's take a closer look at a demo version of the vehicle itself . He really has a helm. Remember, Elon says this will be the only manually driven vehicle Tesla will produce in the future, which is actually pretty exciting. So, you know, because if everything is autonomous, you don't have a really interesting vehicle anymore , right?
And as a jet pilot, I can say that taking off on a jet is a real pleasure. I've also done stalls on jet planes. You know, I've done some pretty sharp turns in jet planes. I mean, everything a jet pilot needs to know , we've already done. A rapid decline, whatever. This is really interesting. And so I think for the average person, if we could get access to or even ride this on a track, you know, it would be pretty cool entertainment.
I don't know how this will be licensed for public roads , but it's great. You know, because I see a lot of people turning on these jet engines and blowing up the cars behind them. So, we're probably going to need some kind of AI with cameras in the back that won't let you run this thing when someone's behind you.
I'm sure they can do it. I mean, we can already recognize vehicles with cameras, so I'm sure there are ways to make it safe. But they seemed to hint that safety wasn't exactly the top priority in this. That the priority was to achieve an 11 out of 10 score on the satisfaction scale. So, it looks amazing, a great car.
Again, in the first demonstrations, acceleration from 0 to 60 took 60 seconds. And then, during the next demonstration, they had a little glitch and nobody set the timer, but later they came out and said, "Oh, it was actually 0.81 seconds." You know, I can see all the short sellers saying, " Dude, this is complete [ __ ], dude." We were promised an event where we could actually buy a car, and it was supposed to be like the iPhone, like pre- ordering in a month and receiving it in two.
But that's not what's happening here at all . I actually think this is just a PR move for the Tesla and SpaceX merger. I talked about this in my video on August 14. You can check the facts. On August 14, I said twice that I saw this event as marketing what technologies Tesla and SpaceX can achieve together.
Perhaps ironically, SpaceX needs to raise about $400 billion for its AI initiatives. After only raising $40 billion through Broadcom and Oracle, and raising another $100 billion in almost the same week, the market effectively collapsed. This is too much capital outflow, and they need 10 times more. So my quotes, I wrote them down, on August 14th I said, "I really think this is about a flying car, and this is a marketing pitch for how SpaceX and Tesla can combine their technologies." And one of the first things they said when they took the stage was, "This is what we can achieve with Tesla and SpaceX working together." This Roadster—I don't know if it will become anything more than ( I'm sorry to say ) a test product for the track, at least for the foreseeable future.
This is a marketing presentation of the merger of the two companies, which is not too surprising, since before this event—which was truly impressive— rumors began to circulate that the Tesla and SpaceX merger could happen much sooner than expected. I also said August 14, and think I'm inconsistent, although I think I'm quite consistent.
So I'll just start checking the facts for myself. On August 14th, I said, "You're not going to get a $250,000 rocket-powered car that flies." I stand by my opinion, and I'm not trying to be pessimistic. This is not the goal at all. The goal is to say that this is fantastic technology. This is really cool.
And he's actually selling you a vision of how small vehicles could land on Mars or the Moon or safely transport us to space and back. That's what it really is. This is a video or a product from a proving ground, created to sell us the future. That's why everything here is like in the movie " Back to the Future." Uh , and I became optimistic about SpaceX at about $132.
We have documented this very well, by the way . We bought more SpaceX shares . So, we owned SpaceX at a valuation of $350 billion. Then we bought more, at about 135, because we have a support line somewhere at 132-135. We also, by the way, bought the dip this morning on the Nasdaq 100 when we made a prediction that " Hey, the Nasdaq is likely to bounce, or there's a good chance of a bounce at 715." If this happens, buy on the dip.
And that's exactly what happened. It bounced 43 seconds after reaching the 715 line, and we invested a six-figure sum buying that drawdown. But the interesting thing is that you can always get our notifications when we do, or our Alpha report at reinvest1.com. You can also just go to meetkevin.com if that's easier for you.
We are releasing a superintelligence platform in a single terminal, coming later this year, and you will get al estate platform, research platform, courses, streams, and new modules on agent AI. You get all of this in one package and get lifetime access if you join before the end of the year. So we are very, very excited about the release of this product.
It comes lshi was notified...or rather, not notified, prior to this event, and Kalshi's market bets on the merger had skyrocketed just before . $1.5 million is currently being invested in this . So this is not some niche game with low volume. Interestingly, you can see how the probability by May 1, 2027, has increased from about 40% to, according to the latest data, about 55%.
Yes, 55%. But all of these ratios increased by about 7% . So, someone here made a bet. Maybe they have some inside information, we don't know, but someone bet on Kalshi that the merger would happen sooner than expected. So , full disclosure: we are sponsored by Reinvest, my company, sponsored by Kalshi.
If you sign up for Kalshi using kalshi.com/r/mekevin, you will . But the point is , I like to watch what the betting markets say because I believe that people with inside information end up making those bets. And I think they can actually give us a signal about what's going on with potentially Tesla and SpaceX.
So, I made the argument that Tesla and SpaceX wouldn't merge unless one stock performed significantly better or the other significantly worse. In other words, my thesis was pretty consistent: if we are stable, nothing happens. I still believe in that to some extent. So I think the stable price of Tesla and SpaceX means that it is too expensive and difficult for the companies to merge, too much shareholder dilution on one side.
So, I think there are two scenarios, well, or three scenarios. If the stock is stable, I think the merger is postponed. I think if Tesla stock goes up a lot then there could be a merger where there would be some form of takeover, one way or another it doesn't really matter. But if Tesla is eventually acquired when it is at its peak due to some hype or something else, Elon will get his compensation in shares at the acquisition price.
Let's say Tesla goes up to $600, and then SpaceX comes along and says, "We'll pay $800 for it ." Elon can unlock stock compensation at the acquisition price, not the public market price. This is one of the strategies for Elon. So, that would be a strategy. I think this is one of the likely options. Another likely option is that Tesla shares will fall sharply.
I'm not saying it's likely, I'm just saying that another likely option for acquisition is Tesla falling while SpaceX is stable or growing, and then SpaceX can buy Tesla very cheaply. And in any case, I think it will all go to SpaceX so that Elon can have control. The goal is for Elon to gain control.
And considering he owns roughly 77% of the voting shares in SpaceX, it seems entirely likely. But I don't think that with stable stock prices, this takeover is likely. So I'm a little surprised to see the prediction markets moving in this direction. So, again, I want to be clear: I don't know how they're going to get this into mass production.
I'll say this: full-size light bar, Cybertruck style, Cybercab style—I like it. It seems that the Falcon's wings don't close on their own, which is perfectly normal for a sports car, especially with a removable convertible top. I'm not sure if this is true, but usually unnecessary electronics and engines are removed to reduce the weight of the car for speed and , so to speak, drive.
It was expected that there would be a magnetic slide, but it looks like it's pure suction, which is also very interesting. And Elon says that this machine really " sucks" ( sucks powerfully). This gives us a little insight into what's inside: 10 jet nozzles, suction, two modes— suction mode and jet mode, and also a rotation mode.
Again, this is brilliant marketing of how a manufacturing company can merge with an aerospace company. And this is precisely the main point. So whether you buy Tesla or SpaceX, ultimately you are buying " Elon Inc.". Elon is the type of person who lights many fires at once, and some of them just go out.
And then he closes these projects. But sometimes he hits the mark. Autopilot is fantastic, it's the best technology in the world. Starlink is the best technology in the world. Reusable launch vehicles—everyone is trying to emulate them. Direct connection service to mobile networks, receiving 800 MHz bands for signal penetration through windows and walls — this is genius.
Do you understand? Will the Roadster be a flop because no one will be able to own it, because it will damage eardrums, or be only suitable for the track? Perhaps. But Cybercab is simply incredible. Do you know how much peripheral training we did for them? We don't know, do we ? This is the next catalyst to figure out: how quickly we can move from peripheral cybertaxi training to working in a new city.
That's why I want to know when these cyber taxis will be validated in Florida, Seattle, or Houston, how long it will take from the start of validation to completion. I like to see things through to the end. And the sooner we get to the end, the better it is for Tesla stock. Well, you know, there's so much going on in the market right now that's draining resources.
The other advantage of combining Tesla and SpaceX is that you probably provide easier liquidity to build what should actually be profitable right now, which is building AI, whether it's by getting people on Grok or getting people to use Gentex services on X. I also think it's not surprising that they're trying to get a lot of people to start streaming on the platform, because there's a lot of money in social media.
We all understand this now. I even tweeted about it this morning . You should follow me on X, but I tweeted this this morning @realmeatkevin on X, right here. Urgent: X has targeted YouTube. X is now offering $5,000 for posting 15 videos to X within 30 days. So they offer us $5,000 for it. I think I have a community note about X triggering a selective start.
Well, never mind. I mean, they basically said...I just took a screenshot of their announcement, so I'm assuming they're just adding a note to the community that it's selective. Indifferently. Sometimes these community note writers are a little too zealous. But yes, this is Elon. That's his style of work: we're going to do everything...Oh, wow, someone just made a few more bets on that, huh?
This is Elon's style— doing what he thinks is the future. And now the future is the development of AI. So they will do everything they can to extract more money from the markets and build micro hard, mini hard and terrafab. Terrafab will be a joint project between SpaceX and Tesla. Let's be realistic.
So, on one side you will have production, and on the other side you will have engines. And I support that. And I'm thrilled about it. And I like what's happening at SpaceX with chips . I know a lot of people are very nervous about building data centers for artificial intelligence. So, I just want to talk about this for a minute.
Something you should know about hardware development is very strange right now. Uh , and I've talked about this in other videos, but chances are you haven't seen them. And you know, I realize I post a lot of content. So if you want, you can subscribe to what we call the Meet Kevin digest. You can just go to meetkevin.com/digest.
And receive our newsletter absolutely free of charge. I send a message like, "Hey, here's some facts you might have missed. Right? So some people who don't want to download another app choose this because they can upload the information to their agent. And they're like, "Oh, by the way, Kevin said that in the video.
This gives a quick overview if you want to watch the video in full. So, meetkevin.com/digest. Just make sure you actually open the link you receive in the email. It may end up in spam to confirm your subscription. Otherwise you will get nothing. But it's free. So, here are some things you need to know about the equipment.
And this is probably the most important thing. And when it clicked in my head, that's when I bought SpaceX shares. It was around September 11th. And I bought more SpaceX shares. As soon as I realized that, I was like, "Wow. Wow. I didn't get that before . Now I do . Got it? So I know I'm going to get a bunch of comments like, 'Kevin's just rambling.' But I think this is probably the most important part.
Ready? So, the H100 is now increasing in price. This is a four-year-old technology . Why? Why is it increasing in price? It's getting more expensive because we can take this old technology and run compressed models with open weights on it. We can use an open- weight model that gets us 90% closer to cutting-edge models like Fable, Opus 5.5, or Astra, right?
So, we get 90% of the result from the open- stakes model, which instead of $ 50 per million tokens costs only 40 cents. This is a hundredfold reduction in cost. A hundredfold reduction in cost for 90% efficiency. Of course? This must be implemented using a specific tool. So what are these older chips so good at?
They have enough power reserve to handle large models with open scales, and they don't need the latest technology . So you don't need Blackwell 200 or GB300, Vera Rubin or Nvidia combo systems with cutting-edge processors and graphics cards . You don't need them. You can literally go back to the H100, of which Elon has hundreds of thousands.
And these "pups " are increasing in value because now you can provide open- source models to anyone who doesn't want to run them on their own computers or hardware. By the way, we ourselves run many models with open scales on our own equipment. You know, we have Blackwell chips, we have GTX 6000, we have 5090, and we have dozens of computers.
I wouldn't be surprised if there were 100 of them already. I'm not sure if we've reached a hundred yet. But we have many dozens of computers, and we used open- scale models because they fit on them and we could do what we needed for a fraction of the cost of other companies' services. The H100 will allow you to put an even larger model and get, you know, 90% of the capabilities of advanced solutions.
And that's how you actually increase the value of chips that should be depreciating. Michael Berry must be right . Of course? It's like... Well, you know, my plane was registered to an LLC called "Not My Tesla," by the way. You can check. " Not my Tesla." Check this out. Although you can just take my word for it.
But it was registered to an LLC called "Not My Tesla." And the flight number was N694PP. But I mention this because, you know, I bought this plane for $12.9 million, drove it tail and mane for 800 hours of flight, and then I thought: I don't need this bird anymore, I'm a little tired of flying, and the monthly expenses for it are too high.
You know, it's about $200,000 a month to keep this damn thing running. So I sold it. If you make something up, they won't believe it. For 12,969,000. Got it? Why does this make sense? The only reason this makes sense is because there is a huge supply shortage of such aircraft. The Phenom 300E has become one of the best business jets, and NetJets is buying up every one it can get its hands on .
And as a result, their cost has increased because Embraer, the manufacturer, cannot produce enough of them. By the way, it's a fantastic plane, and being a certified pilot to fly it is an honor. But whatever it is, it's essentially the same thing that happens with chips. It would seem that such things should become cheaper.
The plane should lose value after 3 years and 800 flight hours. Why has it become more expensive? This doesn't make sense. Because more people use them, charter companies demand more of them, and the cost has increased due to limited supply. The same thing happens with chips. So now the H100s are going up in price because you can get more out of them .
So paradoxically, over time, as open-weight models get better, yes, Anthropic and GPT suffer from this . Their rating may go down. You know, we just saw that Anthropic's valuation could be cut by 25%—from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. But what you get in return is that the equipment has a longer lifespan than you previously expected because its value actually increases, not decreases.
It is growing. It shouldn't be like that. But when I realized that, I bought SpaceX. And I know, you know, it's like people who don't watch the video, "But Kevin, you said $68." "You're right. I said I'd buy more at $68. And I said I thought it would go down 30% after the IPO. And guess what? It went down about 35 or 31 percent from the IPO price to 104, right?
And I didn't buy at 104 because I thought, 'I'll buy at $68,' or whatever. If the price gets there, fine; if it doesn't—I'm not going to buy. So that was my decision. And then in early September I thought, 'Oh my God, this is what's happening with open-ends.' Who benefits from this? Oh my God, SpaceX.
"And we reworked our underwriting and decided, 'No, it costs more.'" "And we bought it. We did a full analysis, a full explanation and a breakdown in our membership, as we do, you know, we do live streams for the course participants every morning. Just go to meetkevin.com or reinvest1.com, whichever is more convenient for you.
You buy once and you're with us for life. So, you want to come back in 4 years and see a new analysis—you can do it, or you can be here every day, however you wan don't we .
Comments 0