저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 2021년 11월 금융안정보고서 기준으로 미국 주택시장을 분석. 주택가격이 임대료보다 훨씬 빠르게 상승해 가격-임대료 비율이 높고, 대출 기준 악화 징후는 아직 제한적이라 봄. 포버런스(유예) 해제 매물은 시장을 크게 붕괴시키기보다 가격 상승을 둔화시킬 수준으로 평가. 가장 큰 위험은 금리 급등으로, 2023~2024년 금리 인상 시 모기지금리 1.5%p 상승과 집값 약 15% 하락 가능성 언급.
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is the biggest risk to the housing market and what could potentially create a housing market crash we're also going to break down what is not presently a risk for the real estate market so that way we can get the perspective of the federal reserve and see what they think the biggest risk to the housing market is and that way we can project when that risk might become most evident folks let's get right into this video right after i mention that of course this video is brought to you by the amazing programs on building your wealth especially the real estate investing course and the do-it-yourself property management course which comes with guides and how-to's on rental renovations to make sure you don't overspend on your real estate check out the programs along with other we get to the black friday season because you will always lock in the best price the sooner you buy rather than waiting thank you so much and let's get into the content so we're going to go to the federal reserve's a financial stability report and we're going to break down the real estate sections in this video i've broken down the stock market sections in the other video the first video that i did in this sort of financial stability report series and i'll link that in the description down below so if you want to see that portion you can see that there this is going to essentially be part two where we talk about real estate and in part three we'll talk about stable coins so let's talk about this most asset classes here have obviously seen valuations substantially higher than uh you know current like historical valuations we're seeing this prices of everything go up but don't worry they say no inflation right now we'll put that aside let's focus on the actual facts here supported by low mortgage rates and strong demand housing prices continue to rise at a rapid clip outstripping increases in rent now this is actually really important to know because it really sets the stage for the potential for rents to go up even more and even though there doesn't the federal reserve doesn't believe that there's a lot of speculation happening in real estate i do believe that investors are expecting to be able to raise rents as tenants move or so that way they can essentially raise rents to market levels as opposed to having people in locked contracts now or if they buy product projects people i believe are projecting higher rent increases in time so people are kind of starting to build in higher rents and their valuations we're starting to see this come from sellers as well reiterating higher asking prices which something pretty wild that just happened in in real estate data as well i always recommend and refer people to the redfin data center to keep track of what real estate prices are doing sort of on the day-to-day and there was a little interesting inflection point that i saw if you jump on over the data center and you go to median sales price take a look at this usually towards the end of the year like 2020 2019 well 2020 was a little bit of an exception so i'm just going to remove 2020 so we're going to exclude 2020 here just look at the the blue and the gray here this is 2019 and 2018.
you always tend to see when school starts and you get into the fall season this reduction in pricing and you generally don't see an increase in pricing until february and march and in 2020 i'm sorry in 2019 you did see a tiny little bit of push in the uh the second to last week of december but beyond that we don't really often see prices going up at the end of the year but take a look at 2021 folks this is weird we followed almost the exact inflection point to the dot in timing with prices starting to soften a little bit and now they've actually u-turned back up it's pretty incredible and this the sustainability of this is obviously in question but these are some worthwhile things to pay attention to now the federal reserve goes on to see here however with valuations at high levels housing prices could be particularly sensitive to shocks and this is especially true if housing prices keep going up so this is a risk factor that we're going to want to pay attention to in real estate and they're going to give us a specific catalyst in a moment as well they do mention here that aggregate commercial real estate prices have continued to go up since may that was the last time they did a financial stability report however prices for retail hotel and office sectors have remained roughly flat amid limited transaction volume since the on onset of the pandemic they also do mention that farmland prices continue to be l sorry elevated relative to rents and incomes against sellers almost projecting hey you should be able to get more rent in the future from this now let's uh let's keep going here to some of the core updates that they have on real estate here they mention housing prices continue to increase and valuations are high relative to history but take a look at this price to rent ratios have been rising across geographically dispersed housing markets and so really what they're saying is everywhere across the united states this isn't just isolated to certain areas we are seeing rents not catching up with home valuations that home valuations are rapidly escaping rent levels and that's what you see here if you're at a level of 100 right here that would mean that home prices are essentially par with rent prices but now you're getting this insanity where housing prices are essentially growing exponentially and rent prices are are barely growing if anything they're growing more linearly probably somewhere around five to eight percent whereas housing prices have gone up 20 to 25 a percent in many cases so really the expectation here is that rent prices could continue to go up for the time being at a slower pace but longer than housing prices go up so we could actually see housing prices moderate at some point in the future but rents continue to push up because of this sort of delay in how long it takes to actually get rents up pretty incredible and it really reflects a lot of the inflation that we've seen in the markets it just takes longer to be realized in real estate and it could be a catalyst for keeping cpi data higher for longer which is not good because if cpi data is higher for longer since owner's equivalent rents and housing make up about a third of the weight for cpi and cpi is one of the tools along with the pce that the federal reserve uses to project when they'll raise interest rates we can actually see these lagging rents end up pushing inflation up more for longer leading interest rates to go up more rapidly and sooner being bad for real estate pricing but we'll talk more about what'll be bad for real estate pricing in a moment it's worth noting first though that even amid such rapid and widespread price growth the price the fed here says there is currently little indication of highly leveraged real estate investment activity or a deterioration in underwriting standards now both of these are extremely important back in 2006 and seven the federal reserve was keen to a deterioration of underwriting standards and so were fannie and freddie mac uh fannie mae and freddie mac but the problem was with uh with these companies is the private market just said look if you folks aren't going to compete these government sponsors or sponsored entities aren't going to compete we'll just give people subprime loans in the private market we don't need fannie and freddie so fannie and freddie really got squeezed out even though they realized the loan quality that was happening in the market started rapidly deteriorating i mean dead people were getting loans people were getting loans with stated income it was a complete disaster and that's one of the reasons we saw this massive real estate bubble in 2008 and this destruction of housing wealth and there are a lot of people really comparing now to then but i don't think they're realizing that the average credit score of somebody getting a mortgage these days is well over 750 they have very high uh incomes compared to their monthly payments they are have the ability to repay those particular words their ability to repay are very important because lenders have to prove that or be held liable for giving a loan to somebody who doesn't potentially have the ability to repay a 30-year loan over the lifetime of that loan that was totally the opposite in 2006-7 6-7 it was like i don't really care if you have the ability to repay i just want to make the loan and you could just refinance in a few months that doesn't fly anymore today the negam and all that old stuff that doesn't fly anymore today so this is actually very very important for the long run health of the housing market to see uh it or and to keep an eye on and that's deterioration of underwriting standards and speculation and so far at least the fed says they're not seeing that yet now they're not necessarily uh the only experts in the real estate market but i'm also not seeing that on my on the local level and i would talk to other real estate agents and lenders that you know in your area and get a feel from them what do they think now uh let's see what else we have so then we go on over to uh over here default risk so low interest rates continue to mitigate investor concerns about default risk arising from higher leverage and where we do see some leverage going up and then probably the highest area of leverage or debt risk right now is in leveraged loans not particularly in housing loans like mortgages leveraged loans are basically subprime loans to businesses and those are no bueno we don't really want those so uh then we have default rates on leverage loans has actually fallen though worth mentioning that and the financial position of many households has continued to improve since the previous financial stability report which again was done in may 2021 and it supported that's back when when people were supported by pandemic stimulus a recovering economy and rising housing prices still however some households remain financially strained and more vulnerable to future shocks these vulnerabilities may be increased by the expansion or sorry the expiration of expanded unemployment programs forbearance and eviction moratoria as well as potentially covet coming back so there are households that do have risk levels and those are specifically the households that are relying on mortgage forbearance although i personally believe there are a lot of people using mortgage forbearance that don't actually need it it's kind of just like a free stimulus program and that's not necessarily a bad thing i mean it's it's there this is what we talked about when these programs were created we covered these forbearance programs very very in-depth uh now there are actually opportunities for folks in mortgage forbearance to request a 40-year mortgage i might make a separate video on that let me know in the comments if you want that but i actually think that's a phenomenal idea for people to be able to lower their housing payment and catch up over the long term on their uh their owed money that their or owed payments that they didn't make during the 2020 to 2021 uh payment cycle but anyway continuing on here household debt growth it did pick up in the second quarter of this year that's april may june debt owed by roughly one half of households with prime credit score continue to account for all of the growth driven by increases in mortgages credit cards and automobile debt so this is very very important right this is basically saying the debt growth we're seeing at homes and households is is really driven by folks with prime credit scores and this makes sense why we are seeing this large uptake in the average credit score because it's the people with money and with wealth and with good credit scores that are actually out there making more money i think this is why people like to say it takes money to make money right so the increase in mortgage and automobile debt reflects a surge in demand for housing and autos as well as substantial price growth in these categories mortgage debt accounts for roughly two-thirds of household debt with mortgage extension skewed towards prime borrowers mortgage forbearance programs have helped reduce the effect of the pandemic on mortgage delinquencies the share of mortgages that are either delinquent or in loss mitigation programs including four bands was slightly above four percent in august of 2021 down from its peak at 8.9 percent in may 2020.
so that's really good mortgage loss and mitigation uh delinquencies right here this is kind of where you're seeing delinquencies and being right above four percent right here in the delinquent or in loss mitigation uh well the top one here is lost mitigation the bottom one is uh and delinquent and the bottom one is just delinquent so delinquent means like you just stop paying for example loss mitigation means you stop paying but you're working with the bank okay so you're gonna have more people in the top line less people in the bottom one who just aren't responding but take a look at this if you compare back to 2019 at which 2019 that would be 20 this would be 19.
2019 would be right here you look at 2019 and we're actually either at or lower in loss or delinquency status in the amount of people in these programs or having these issues than where we were in 2019 that's actually a really good thing also borrowers who receive forbearance are definitely more likely to have been delinquent before the pandemic before have lower incomes and have subprime credit scores so this is where the federal reserve is really going to talk about the risk factors with the mortgage forbearance program that's what we're going to talk about here is a potential risk factor for the housing market now and we'll talk about another big risk factor for the housing market as well i do quickly want to again mention though check those out down below you get lifetime access to them you get course member live streams with me i analyze real estate deals i also look at people's renovations and we'll make recommendations on do this and not that and determine is your deal a good deal or not if you end up buying a real estate deal so if you're interested in housing you want to learn more about the best way to shop for a mortgage save money or qualify for a mortgage you want to learn all those tips and tricks really check out the zero-to-millionaire course if you're trying to get started it's a great way to make sure you get into real estate the proper way now getting back to forbearance here take a look at this the fed believes that borrowers exiting forbearance are expected to resume making their payments and servicers are expected to be able to work with them to modify their mortgages to be attainable or payable especially if it's uh resorting to like a 40-year mortgage or if they needed to sell the cool thing is prices have gone up right so these borrowers should be in a higher equity position it's not like they've been able to add on debt because if you're in mortgage forbearance you can't add on debt so the cool thing is if somebody's a mortgage forbearance they're not adding on debt to their house well maybe through credit credit cards and other things but they're not able to add household or like housing debt mortgage debt right or a credit line or whatever they can't add that and home values have gone up so they actually have that net worth in between there that should make them leave them insulated but the question is what if what if everybody sells that's in forbearance right could that crash the market well the fed believes that as of september 21st there were about one and a half million properties in foreclosure and the fed believes that should all of these properties be put on the market simultaneously an unlikely event they say obviously it's very unlikely that they would all come in the market at the same time but even if they did the fed believes that would only add about two to three months of housing supply and not really dent the housing market uh substantially enough to cause a drop in overall home prices i did think that was very interesting uh one and a half million properties though does represent let's see one and a half divided by seven that we're expecting uh that would be an additional one and a half million property sales because we usually sell about seven but that could also offset some others so let's say it's 1.5 million sales out of 8 million if that were to happen right in a year's time frame that would be about 19 of additional supply and i would expect that additional supply would be sort of spread out and if if anything if if one and a half million new households just decided to sell i would expect more that this would just soften the rate of real estate appreciation and i don't i actually agree with the fed that i don't think that the forbearance is expiring and then people potentially selling which i also don't think most of them will but even if all of them decided to sell i think it would happen in a spread out way over the over a year and an 18 increase in supply could potentially be matched with an 18 decline in prices in theory right but there is so much demand that i would expect if anything it would probably just stop home price appreciation and maybe maybe potentially prices could fall somewhere on five percent or so solely out of forbearances i don't believe that this is going to be the a big catalyst that is going to lead the market to sort of crash but we can keep an eye on these forbearance folks so that's one of the nice things about watching data so we can keep an eye on those that that is not as big of a catalyst that we want to pay attention to instead though we do have some risks here take a look at this this is the real risk for the housing market a steep rise in interest rates could lead to a large correction in prices of risky assets valuations of many assets have benefited from low interest rates and therefore may be susceptible to a spike in yields especially if unaccompanied by an improvement in economic output a range of financial intermediaries hold long-duration assets like long bonds and they could suffer mark-to-market losses when interest rates go up so when there's an adjustment in the liquidity of companies because interest rates are going up we can also see an adjustment in household liquidity because households net worth is going to decline at the same time as housing demand subsides so now you have less housing demand less household liquidity because people's net worth is potentially declining as interest rates go up and the federal reserve believes that it's actually interest rates going up not mortgage forbearances that are going to be the biggest potential catalyst for housing market crash the resulting stresses may be especially pronounced for homeowners currently in mortgage forbearance or in the subprime and near prime risk categories this would be for individuals who have not yet made or committed to let's say a 40-year mortgage that people in forbearance who don't get their act together before interest rates go up have a real risk of potentially having a default risk unless they've tied in some sort of fixed rate loan so if you're a forbearance get in a fixed rate loan as soon as possible but more important additionally here the effect of a rise in interest rates on borrowing business borrowing costs would likely be amplified so if all of a sudden you have stretched real estate valuations companies losing liquidity because interest rates are going up and their sort of uh cash equivalents are losing value treasury bonds and excuse me and business borrowing costs are going up now you could be in a situation and then of course you have chinese real estate that also has stretched valuations you could be in a situation where uh oh interest rates going up that's going to be the real potential market crash catalyst and we we know how much interest rates are going up we've already been talking about this we expect this is the current expectation that in the first half of 2022 we're probably going to stay at zero in the second half of 2022 we'll probably go to 0.25 to 0.5 so a bump of about a quarter because we're at 0 to 0.25 right now oops let's go ahead and mark that to 0.25 in the first half and second half so i'm just going to put 20 23 in 2023 we do expect two rate increases so that could bring us up to 0.5 to 0.75.75 to 1.
so we'll put 0.75 to 1. and 2024 we might actually see three increases where we could get from one to one and a quarter a quarter to five a five to point seven five so that would look like 1.5 to 1.75 by 2024 this increase could lead mortgage rates to increase by about one and a half percent a one and a half percent increase in mortgage rates is generally associated with about a 15 decline in real estate prices and so this is where if you do have mortgage forbearance folks selling and let's say you get this max potential 18 uh increase in supply which is going to slow home price appreciation at the same time as rates go up now you have a problem now individually i don't think mortgage forbearance is going to be more of a problem than just slowing real estate price appreciation and growth bringing us to zero but if on top of that rates go up now we can see the catalyst for home prices declining and personally i don't recommend waiting for this to happen to buy because well then rates will be higher and i think if you could find a really good deal in real estate you should get it but i do think that the fed's right here and i know that does you know saying the words the fed is right i get it but i do think they're right it's not just forbearances it's gonna be interest rates that's the bigger issue uh and this gives you some insights into what the fed believes uh and subscribe like real estate thanks so much for watching this update i'm gonna go look at a fixer-upper tomorrow you
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