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결론: 뱅크오브아메리카(BAC)는 워런 버핏식 지표 기준 저평가 가능성이 있는 우량 은행이나 금리·경기 리스크가 있어 추가 조사가 필요하다. 가격 및 시장 상황: 주가 약 26.99달러, 연초 대비 약 20% 하락, S&P500 대비 부진. 2023년 봄 은행 위기 이후 시장 하회. 시가총액 약 2120억 달러, 자산 2.5조 달러 이상. 버핏 보유: 버크셔해서웨이가 최대주주(약 13%). BAC는 버핏의 두 번째 큰 포지션이며 다른 은행주는 대부분 매도(씨티 제외). 과거 성과: 최근 5년 주가 약 5% 하락, 10년 연 복리 약 6%. 금융위기 이전 대비 주가 42% 하락 (버핏 투자는 이후). 밸류에이션 지표: 최근 5년 평균 PER 약 12배 수준 대비 현재 약 8배로 역사적 평균 이하. 평균 ROE 약 9.9%로 기준(9%) 상회. 실적 및 성장: 매출 2018년 약 880억 달러 → 현재 약 920억 달러(약 10% 증가). 이익 2018년 280억 달러 → 최근 12개월 298억 달러(약 6% 증가). 평균 연간 이익 263억 달러. 예금 및 비용: 예금 36% 증가했으나 장기채 투자로 금리 리스크 존재. 예금이자율 1.3%→2.6%. 비이자비용/예금 3.8%→3.3%로 효율 개선. 기관예금 3%→0%로 안정성 개선. 주주환원: 배당수익률 약 3.36%, 배당은 이익으로 지지. 최근 5년 주식수 20% 감소(자사주 매입). 안전성 보너스: 10년 중간 ROE 6.8% vs 예금 연성장률 5.7%로 예금 성장이 수익으로 뒷받침됨. 밸류에이션 결론: 시총 대비 10년 평균 이익(263억 달러 기준) 기반 적정가치 약 2630억 달러로 시총보다 높음. 발표자 추정 적정주가 약 33달러. 긍정 요인: 전국 단위 성장 여력, 금융 시스템 중요은행(GSIB)으로서 예금 이탈 우려 감소, 디지털 채택 성과, 비용 절감 여지. 리스크: 금리 민감도(경기 둔화 시 금리 인하가 역풍), 쉬운 비용절감 소진, 조달비용 상승으로 순이자이익 정점 가능성, 규제 강화 가능성, 경기침체 우려.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett Charlie Munger guy Spear and Lee louu these are just some of the super investors who own Bank of America right now burer hathway is the biggest shareholder owning 133% of the company BAC stock is Warren Buffett's second biggest position with their stock price down in the last year is BAC stock a potential opportunity we'll perform a BAC stock analysis like Warren Buffett one of the greatest bank investors of all time will reverse engineer his decision-making process to look at the number before estimating a fair value for Bank of America along the way there's going to be not one but two key bonus metrics that just might be the Tipping points when analyzing Bank of America for your stock portfolio then you'll want to watch till the end when we give our rating right now Bank of America trades for $26.99 year-to date their stock price is down 20% while the S&P 500 is up 133% Bank of America has underperformed the market since Banks started failing in Spring of 202 3 still Warren Buffett has held strong he sold all of his bank stocks outside of just Bank of America and City Bank which is pretty telling for the business in their Last 5 Years Bank of America's stock price is down 5% overall in the last decade they're compounding at 6% annually they beat the market for most of this time and have just underperformed in the last year when we go back before the global financial crisis it's a different story for Bank of America their stock prices down 42% overall Buffett did not make his investment until after this time since then with his big ownership in the company he's likely beat the market in his investment so again is there stock undervalued or overvalued right now they trade just a dollar above their 52e low they're down $12 from their 52e High still there's not a lot of short interest in the business and how big is Bank of America they're huge they have a $212 billion market cap Bank of America is one of the largest financial institutions in the United States with more than $2.5 trillion dollar in assets it's organized into four major segments consumer banking Global wealth and Investment Management global banking and Global markets Bank of America's consumer facing lines of business include its network of branches and deposit Gathering operations retail lending products credit and debit cards and Small Business Services the company's Merl Lynch operations which it acquired during the global financial crisis provide brokerage and Wealth Management Services as does its Private Bank wholesale lines of business include Investment Banking corporate and Commercial Real Estate lending and capital market operations Bank of America has operations in several countries but it's primarily us focused now let's dive deep into their numbers when we start with metric number one we want their average PE in The Last 5 Years to be below 12 1/2 times that's the historical averages for banks Bank of America's PE has been across the board here they hit a low of 6 and 1 half times earnings with the spring of 2020 market crash then as their stock rebounded they went all the way as high as 21 and 1 half times earnings in the spring of 2021 since then their PE has been declining today they trade at just under eight times earnings and on average throughout this time BAC is trading for 12 times earnings they just sneak in there this is under bank's historical average which means this is a check on Metric number one metric number two we want their average return on Equity to be above 9% again we're looking for this because this is above bank's historical averages Bank of America has earned pretty steady Returns on Equity coming in around 10% that was the case in four of these Last 5 Years 2020 was different for the business where their Returns on Equity were just under 7% still when we average these out Bank of America earns 99.9% returns in a given year that's above our Benchmark it's another check on Metric number two for the most part since the global financial crisis these have been pretty steady metric number three we want to see sales growth in The Last 5 Years their revenues in this time are up they grew from just under $88 billion in 2018 to more than $92 billion today their sales are up by 10% it's another the business earning more when we look at their numbers up until today Bank of America has actually grown their earnings they earned $29.8 billion in their last 12 months which is up from $28 billion in 2018 they've grown their earnings by 6% with a check here we're perfect so far through four metrics a bank is really valued based on their earnings we'll look at their average here in a later metric just keep in mind Bank of America earned $26.3 billion in an average year over this time put that in the bank for later as we'll come back to it next in metric number five we're looking for deposit growth this was the big problem for banks since 2020 their deposits grew like wildfire and they had not so great investment opportunities at the same time with too much money flowing into the banks they ended up doing stupid things Bank of America is not an exception here they've grown their deposits by 36% some of the reason their stock price is down and a major reason they're legging their peers is because they invested some of these deposits in long-dated bonds that are a lot lower than today's yields unlike say signature or Silicon Valley Bank it doesn't look like this will be an issue that causes any bank failure here because of this big deposit growth it's something to look at closely for banks next metric number six we want their share count to be going down this is a major reason Warren Buffett invested in the bank because he likes how they allocate their Capital besides some of those long-dated yields Bank of America hasn't done a lot of stupid things ran Monahan their CEO has run the bank in a conservative way his philosophy is responsible growth a good bank naturally needs a place for the excess money they generate in their business Bank of America has used the money they've earned to to buy back their shares in this time they've reduced their share count by 20% giving existing shareholders like Warren Buffett 1if more ownership in the business than he had at the start they did all this without those owners having to spend a dime because of the valuations a lot of these BuyBacks took place at and because they've been so steady it's likely a good thing for long-term shareholders this is another check on Metric number six Bank of America is still perfect next we want their interest expense on deposits at has a percentage of total deposits to be decreasing banking is a commodity business with money more or less being the ultimate commodity by paying lower interest on their deposits than peers Bank of America potentially has a lowcost producer Advantage it's not unexpected that we're going to see their interest expense rise here in this time they paid 1.3% interest on total deposits in 2018 this has increased to 2.6% today which means this is our first X of the day on Metric number 7even it's not surprising given the interest rate hike we've seen what really matters is how Banks make their money which is based on the spread of what they pay out in interest on deposits versus what they get back by making loans or using their money elsewhere that risk-free rate is a lot higher today than it was in 2018 so again not much of a surprise this isn't a big knock to the business metric number eight we want their noninterest expense as a percentage of deposits to be decreasing this is a more conservative way of calculating what's called A bank's efficiency ratio which usually looks at this as a percentage of revenues but deposits are what really matter for banks which is why we're taking this conservative view their non-interest expenses were 3.8% of deposits in 2018 today they've decreased this these make up 3.3% of deposits which means Bank of America's operations are more efficient today than they were in the past this is likely a good sign for their overall business performance this is a check on Metric number eight then a bank can perform pretty well but it doesn't really matter unless that bank is safe one of the ways we can look at the safety of a bank is to look at their institutional deposits we want these deposits as a percentage of total deposits to be decreasing ideally these should be as close to zero as possible part of this as we saw with the blowup of First Republic in Silicon Valley Banks is that it's harder for small sums of deposits to leave a bank than it is for large institutional depositors 3% of Bank of America's deposits in 201 18 were institutional today this is zero that's exactly what we're looking for this is a check on Metric number n before we give a fair value to the business how about we check in on our bonus right now Bank of America pays a market beating 3.36% dividend yield but are their dividends safe Banks tend to pay above average dividends again as an outlet for their Capital what really matters is that their Dividends are supported by their earnings because of the type of business they are that is the case for Bank of America they support their earnings today they've also supported their earnings in The Last 5 Years it's what we want to see this is a check on our bonus there's another bonus we'll get to after our valuation that's a crucial safety metric when looking at banks in fact it's one of the ways you could have spotted the failures of both Silicon Valley and First Republic Bank ahead of times so you won't want to miss it before we get to it what is Bank of America potentially worth the big metric of the mall metric number 10 it's our valuation for Bank of America we want their market cap to be below their average 5-year free cash flow multiplied by 10 this can give us a starting point that we can adjust up or down to look at a fair value for the business right now they have a $22.5 billion market cap they're one of the largest banks in the world earlier in our analysis we learned they earned $26.3 billion in an average year when we multiply that by 10 it gives us a $263 billion potential f fair value that's more than $50 billion above Bank of America's market cap it's a check on Metric number 10 Bank of America looks like a potential opportunity it appears to be undervalued Don't just run out and go buy the business this isn't financial advice plus you don't want to miss out on our safety metric in our second bonus we're looking at the bank's potential safety we want Bank of America's median 10-year Returns on Equity to be above their 10-year compounded annual growth rate in their deposits this was a key way you could have spotted some of these bank failures ahead of time you ideally don't want this to be the case for Bank of America simply put it's potentially very dangerous when a company is growing their assets faster than their earnings Bank of America had 10year median returns of 6.8% in this time they've grown their deposits annually at 5.7% their returns are able to support their deposit growth it's what we want to see from a safety perspective this is a check on our bonus before we give our rating Warren buff cares a lot about the numbers but he cares even more about the qualitative factors let's learn what these are for BAC starting with a long thesis Number One Bank of America is poised to succeed on a nationwide scale and there seems to be no structural reason it can't be one of the strongest Bank franchises going forward number two at gsib Bank of America should not have to worry about deposit flight and its valuation has become less demanding recently potentially increasing future upside number three Bank of America is seeing exceptional digital adoption and there still seems to be something left in the tank for expense savings potentially helping the bank better absorb inflationary expense pressure but it's not all sunshine and Roses let's look at a short thesis for the business too number one rate sensitivity is a double-edged sword as is leverage to the state of the economy if the economy ever falters and rates are cut watch out for a potential downside number two the easy expense cuts for Bank of America are probably over and with expenses starting to creep up again it may be difficult for the bank to fight back number three there are few positive catalysts left for the bank funding costs are running higher net interest income may have peaked higher regulatory scrutiny is likely and a potential recession may be around the corner let's keep Bank of America's qualitative factors in mind as we combine them with the numbers to give a rating and get an idea of how Warren Buffett is looking at the business so far we've learned through our Bank of America stock analysis ticker symbol BAC their numbers look very good across the board what really stands out is a reasonable valuation above average returns stable growth in their sales and their earnings they have had big deposit growth but they're not institutionally funded and the bank has become more efficient the big win for Warren Buffett and these other super investors is Big returns of capital to shareholders through both the banks above average dividend and their 20% share buyback Bank of America looked good on both of our safety metrics and both of our bonuses the company is a potential opportunity that may be undervalued while there could be some pain on the Horizon structurally Bank of America seems like a sound business Warren Buffett sold off his other bank stocks besid City group and while he's not keen on the banking sector overall Buffett was the person who approached Bank of America not the other way around for this investment as the biggest shareholder in the company he's likely to hold on unless something struck actually changes with all that said Bank of America is an excellent opportunity to dig in and research from what we've learned a rough estimate of Bank of America's fair value per share is around $33 if you enjoyed this BAC stock analysis like the video subscribe to the channel and check out this next video
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