저자: 미상 · 외국인
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CPI 발표(내일)를 앞두고 헤지 수요가 높아 시장이 이미 하락을 상당 부분 반영했다고 봄. 물가는 주거비 가중치 상향으로 단기 부담이 있으나 연말쯤 임대료 둔화 기대. JP모건 시나리오(베이스 5.9%, 베어 6.3%)를 소개하며 금리 경로와 주택·에어비앤비 시장 약세 우려를 언급. 에어비앤비는 과잉 공급과 수요 둔화로 실적 부담이 크다고 경계. 부동산 관련주는 비관적 견해 제시.
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holy smokes 69 off flash sale going on now through Valentine's Day dang may as well take advantage of that because that is a deal link down below and remember that's a flash sale that's an investment in yourself for programs on building your wealth and since these programs are an educational expense and tax season is coming up remember these programs could be a perfect tax deduction for you check with your CPA but investing in yourself or your business could be the perfect tax deduction for you take advantage of that 69 off flash sale before it's gone now we gotta talk catalysts for the week because we've got a lot of them not only do we have CPI to talk about and some of the momentum revisions uh but we've got to talk earnings as well and since today is Monday well guess who reports on Monday it's monday.com monday.com reported they beat they're up about 10 in the pre-market but we'll see if that actually lasts throughout the day but what was interesting was if you bet on cyber security last week you you could have pulled off an easy trade and these are the kind of Trades that we want to you know start working pretty regularly with our course members but last week you could have pulled an easy trade Fortinet came out with smashing earnings and then that led to cloudflare's bead in our opinion I mean it was it was not necessarily one led to the other but it was clearly a signal that cyber security plays were still being bet on uh for wins and they ended up coming out with wins and so what did we have here software service companies again beating monday.com coming in with fourth quarter revenue of 1499 Street was looking for 140.
one uh their forecast smashed 2023 Revenue was expected to be 660. they're looking at closer to a midpoint of 690 that's about eight nine percent of a beat for the year that's fantastic if they could pull it off they only lost about six cents a share they were expected to lose 42 cents per share so uh a less money losing company or smaller money losing company so great job monday.com could actually be good for software companies coming up that still have to report whether that's trade tasks although they're an advertising we'll see whether that's Salesforce we'll see TBD uh obviously uh we've got uh CPI tomorrow let's quickly just catch up on CPI and let's hit some of the other catalysts for the week because we've got a few catalysts coming up so of course there's this potential issue with the CPI report that because of the revisions to CPI weightings we actually expect that CPI ended in 2020 to higher than than we were originally told that's not so much of an issue because it's not like we're going back and changing that data based on these new weightings although there are always revisions uh which wouldn't be surprised to see some of that uh the the big thing is now we're dealing with higher weightings for housing and that's going to end up being really good but probably not until towards the end of this year where we actually really start seeing those owner equivalent rents and housing as services start coming down that's like lodging and rent right we really want to see that anchor when we get to that anchor it's going to be great it's going to be fantastic to have housing have a higher weight but unfortunately in the interim it's going to be bad to have housing have a greater weight because we haven't actually seen those declines yet so you do have this this momentum of basically housing being a lot stronger going into 2023 that could lead to a bad CPI read tomorrow and there's a reason why investors are loading up basically on contracts to protect themselves for example contracts against a 10 decline on the S P 500 a 10 percent decline folks are now 1.7 times more common than options that would benefit from a 10 rally this is a 10 spy put call ratio here uh on on 10 gains or losses and that ratio is sitting at 1 point seven times that skew was sitting at the highest level of skew against the Spy this S P 500 since August of 2022.
now keep in mind for some of you who don't know if when I say spy Spy is an ETF that you could use to trade the S P 500 in you can't actually trade directly in indexes or indices you could trade directly in ETFs which basically try to mirror the index small clarification there but anyway spy is one of those so that's just one that I tend to regularly talk about here uh anywho so uh there's a lot of hedging that's coming up because of this CPI read obviously uh the CPI read is expected to be 0.5 month over month headline point four percent core that core is an issue because even if we meet you're still looking at 4.8 percent on core that means outside of food and gas you're still looking at 4.8 annualized inflation yes that's lower than the 6.2 percent we expect for headline but still it's it's quite a chunk you know a couple days ago we were sitting at point three percent for core month over month that was revised again to point four percent last month we came in at point three and that was revised up to 0.4 already so uh in my opinion you've got you've got a potential for some negativity here but the issue with making bets on CPI is a lot of Traders already have priced bearish bets in pretty well so there's actually this belief that hey look if we get a Miss on CPI it's already built in like you're not gonna make much money on your puts that's the theory unless things really go bad so things would actually have to probably miss substantially to the upside rather than just me so I think a meat you're probably looking at stability in the market uh if and if you get a slight beat you're kind of I feel like almost gonna get the eye roll so if you get like a point one percent beat you get sort of the eye roll from the market where yes the s p and the NASDAQ are gonna drop one or two percent you know you're gonna see that right away but I wouldn't be surprised that mostly you kind of have an eye roll from the markets because markets have kind of already been trying to price in a lot of that uh that pain so to speak for uh CPI we'll see obviously we will see we don't have that for sure answer yet but it's something to pay attention to and we'll see you tomorrow at 5 30 a.m that's in about 24 hours from now uh and uh you know hey I'll be covering it live so hopefully you're here with me when those numbers come out now the other thing to keep in mind is if we do break to the downside even by a point one percent it's probably going to be even easier to go green on markets because so many bearish bets would have to basically get covered uh and uh that's uh that that would be nice to see here right so here's the JP Morgan uh expectation on a CPI and what the FED might do I think it's quite interesting look at this so this is and this is the next two CPI reads the the JP Morgan's going ahead to the next two CPI reads before we look at that take a look on screen here we've got the largest flash sale on a percentage basis that we've ever had 69 for any of the programs on building your wealth and this includes the stocks course real estate courses income courses and even the shadowing experience which is really incredible now which one's right for you well I'll tell tell you this most people get started with eithen fact a lot of people use these flash sales to bundle up between the both of these programs this is how you're getting great pricing on both of these together now the stocks and psych group is coming with a new trading challenge where my team and I work together to take all of the research that we do and then think of what we think as the best and most likely to succeed trades and so we'll be posting those regularly for those of you in the stocks on psychology money group starting this week which is very exciting you also get updates and insights into my personal moves am I selling Tesla have I sold Tesla what am I buying you get that trading Intel fundamental analysis short-term long-term trades real estate you get if you look if you're looking for your first house your first rental property you want to use a property manager zero to millionaire real estate this is how you get the best wedge deals my opinion a lot of knowledge in this course you want to go into managing properties yourself you don't don't just get me you get professional property managers interviewed in this course as well ruined by tenants want to grow your income as a real estate agent as a social media content creator or you want to grow your income as an employee or other self-employed person check out the elite Hustlers group remember a lot of these programs are tax deductible check with your CPA you can also Shadow me now I don't sell Transportation remember that you're not paying for transportation so if you want to come Shadow you got to pay to get yourself out here obviously if I go drive somewhere you can come with me it's incidental to what you're paying for you're paying to Shadow me right you're not paying for transportation if we go fly somewhere then that would be included as well uh now I want to be very clear you're paying to Shadow me that's should be very obvious anyway with these programs though you get lifetime access to all of the new content that's added to them as well but hopefully you've appreciated this breakdown and take advantage of that 69 off flash sale through Valentine's and what you end up having your look at this folks their bull case scenario is that no we're not going to come out with a 6.2 percent CPI read but we're actually going to come out with a 5 7 in the uh the bull case scenario this is like smoke and hopium right here this is ridiculous they would expect the FED to immediately pause for March so a March 22nd pause if inflation comes in this low to 5.7 this is nutty okay the expectation is six two boy if we could get headline in at five at five seven uh moon but but I I don't know I mean this this seems like it would be ridiculous and it also depends what the month over month numbers are doing but that seems like it'd be crazy they would expect the 10-year yield to then end at 3.3 percent at the end of February at the end of the first quarter 3.25 uh and uh and then they they look at the yield curve ending uh actually uninverted by the end of the year uh and then potentially the Dixie falling with with some more BuyBacks their base case scenario so this is JP Morgan's estimate of what's actually going to happen are you ready base case scenario 5.9 the estimate right now from Wall Street is six two their base case is five nine uh and so as a result they expect to get one more 25 BP hike and then a pause in this base case scenario and then in the next report they're expecting a 5.6 and their base in their bull case scenario they're five seven in tomorrow's report and then a 5-0 I mean this this is a pretty pretty interesting one now here's their bear case oh man so their bear case is that instead of getting 6.2 we get 6.3 okay their worst case scenario is just a 0.1 hike uh or or beat on CPI now what's interesting about that is they bring you in at uh a four percent 10-year treasury that's not going to be good for Real Estate uh after the month potentially 4.3 that's back to like the October November highs when we had like 7.3 interest rates in real estate this would be terrible uh 4.3 by the end of the first quarter so you really if if you want to see real estate bottom out here you really want do not want the bear case to play out tomorrow tomorrow you really want the bull case to play up now what odds are they giving this so on the bull case let's see here what do they say while we're considering just the near-term setup it's worth noting that there have only been four periods where the Spy has printed negatively consecutively in consecutive years okay only four periods where the s s p 500 has been negative for two years in a row is basically what they're saying the depression World War II the 70s and the tech bubble of the early 2000s major drivers of the bull case include CPI continuing to fall earnings beating expectations Top Line growth great fantastic now they do have this bear case uh and this comes out to economic deterioration feeding earnings and then of course Global liquidity less cash to actually do BuyBacks less cash to invest uh interesting okay so so that's sort of jpm's take I you know usually I like looking at jpm's take I don't know why but I feel like this is a little bit um a little hope yummy dare I say I don't know that's it seems a little uh well well optimistic let's put it that way they do throw in here housing prices uh on chart here you can clearly see we're well off the peak that we saw somewhere around May uh April May of 2022 well-off national median a home price a well down from about 420 to about 380.
so seeing that sort of nice decline JPM pointing that out here you do have that used vehicle index popping off again one of the reasons by the way you're seeing that is is really is substantial decline in the amount of Supply that we have for vehicles so you're still facing supply chain crunches essentially uh in vehicles so so that's CPI you do tomorrow also end up getting Coca-Cola reporting you get Marriott reporting Airbnb and upstart Reporting now uh you know some potential issues there with Airbnb uh airbn somebody wrote and I thought this piece was really actually quite fascinating but with Airbnb there was a uh Business Insider piece that reported on a manager of 95 Phoenix area airbnbs stunned that half of their homes are empty over Super Bowl weekend now the price they were asking was absolutely nutty uh in my opinion but they said they cut their asking price for a night for the Super Bowl from twelve hundred dollars for the night to 5 500 I'm like my God twelve hundred dollars for an Airbnb in Phoenix that seems nutty and they cut their price to 500 uh apparently still half of them uh unavailable or unfilled I should say not unavailable they're available half of them were unfilled and they're suggesting here some U.S spots are experiencing a glut of short-term rentals that can hurt hosts booking calendars it's actually a massive concern that I have with Airbnb earnings coming up I personally think we're walking into an Airbnb bubble a vacation rental bubble that's mostly because I believe that a lot of people who bought airbnbs to rent them out and and hear this one out because I I think it's very reasonable okay I'm a big fan of the real estate industry and I love real estate I've got a housing startup at househack.com so my take is you have a lot of people in the Bull Run who are like oh I can't lose money on real estate kind of like 2008 right and so what they do is they buy a property at insane prices and they look at it and go okay well if I wanted to rent this out long term I'd get 2 800 bucks in rent for this say I don't know 500 000 property uh but if I rented out on Airbnb I'm gonna get eight grand and my mortgage is gonna be five grand let's say so I'm gonna put little money down and my mortgage is gonna be five grand so they look at it from a Airbnb point of view and they're like I'm a cash flow three grand let's go baby you know after fees or whatever let's say uh and I'm gonna manage myself it's gonna be my side hustle I'm gonna make all this money on Airbnb and so but the long-term rent is actually 2 200 less than what their total payments are so in other words they're they're massively overpaying for the property because of the idea that they could Airbnb it out and make this crazy return well the problem is you're seeing that hotels after sort of this cover disaster have gotten so competitive that I mean you're almost stupid not to go into a hotel because the hotels are so much freaking cheaper in many different areas right now and you could get a sweet sweet so to speak in many hotels for the price of of an Airbnb and then in the good hotels you actually have a restaurant in them you got a bar I love hotels with a bar gotta love it when the alcohol is right there okay anyway um so you've got some awesome things with hotels and hotels have really gotten hurt during the pandemic and so they've been cutting prices and becoming very very efficient so now you have service and you have on-site amenities uh you know maybe that's a larger pool or a pool at all uh you've got maybe that more consistent service because you've got folks over at Airbnb sometimes uh finding that the service isn't necessarily as consistent and so I think because of this you're potentially setting up what I think is a situation where a lot of people are realizing crap I'll just go in a hotel rather than stay in an Airbnb and what you end up with is the situation where all of a sudden people are renting out their airbnbs for what they thought they were going to get now they're like well maybe I'll just rent it long term dang but if I rent it long term I'm upside down maybe I should just sell it and take the L now worst case that they put little money down they can't even sell it because they're upside down now they just lose a ton of money and eventually probably end up selling it anyway so I think you're probably there's a good chance you're going to end up seeing sort of a glut of inventory come on the market of people who need to sell out of their homes because they just can't sell on Airbnb anymore and I actually think it bodes terribly for the Airbnb earnings I don't know if we'll see that manifest yet in the earnings that that come out tomorrow uh but but let's just say uh vacasa gave me the biggest red flags you know this was the last earnings call or earnings report from vacasa and they're basically talking about how many difficulties they were having uh in the third quarter going into the fourth quarter and basically this fear that all of a sudden uh they're they're just not making the money they were getting too much variability in bookings too much recent softness in bookings uncertain macro environment meaningfully reducing the capital we're allocating to our Acquisitions model because basically the numbers don't make sense anymore and it's become harder to actually uh get properties rented out on Airbnb so I think you could potentially run into a big Airbnb bubble uh and I don't know that with certainty but let's just say I'm I'm bearish on Tuesday's Airbnb report uh you've got upstart reports as well on Tuesday Wednesday we get retail spending a December decline with somewhere around 1.1 percent biggest drop uh for that we've seen in quite a while the estimate now is actually 1.9 growth excluding Autos point eight percent growth autos and gas point seven percent growth and going back to a for a moment back to CPI or for to Airbnb it's possible that you really had like a soft December and maybe the numbers start coming out better in January who knows maybe that's a little bit more of the Goldilocks Theory but uh who knows who knows uh anyway hotels also have great amenities those instant gratification exactly yeah so uh then you've got Roblox trade desk craft Generac Shopify Roku and Cisco all reporting Wednesday a you've got UK inflation reporting Wednesday which comes a day after our inflation read in December their inflation was 10.5 percent that's down from 10.7 percent uh the month prior in November Empire manufacturing comes out Wednesday we're looking at negative 18 versus a 32.9 prior January industrial production is expected to come out we are looking at up 0.5 percent that's versus the decline of 0.7 that we experienced in December on Thursday we'll get PPI if the CPI comes in low and the PPI comes in high wouldn't surprise me because I think producers are feeling higher prices than consumers are going to continue to be able to support I think consumers are sort of refusing to continue to pay in certain cases here so we're looking at a PPI expectation at the moment of 0.4 percent month over month last month was negative 0.5 percent and then X food and energy we're looking at uh 0.3 percent last was 0.01 year over year coming down to 5.4 on PPI expected so we'll see building permits expected uh for uh Thursday to be 13.50 the last report no joke was 1337 on the revision uh that's 1.337 a million a building permits housing starts expected to decline month over month negative point or negative 2.01 percent and building permits expected to be actually up potentially one percent so so we'll see you do get some more SAS businesses here like uh data dog you'll get a DraftKings and then you'll get some others like Hasbro Dropbox and Redfin on Thursday personally I'm bearish on anything real estate related so red fan sarium I'm not very optimistic when volumes go down in a real estate recession uh you know real estate agents leave the biz so um ah cheers to Coffee not very optimistic so uh those are some of the biggest catalysts we're looking at personally for this next week uh you know I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna run some numbers and and look into what the expectations are a little bit more closely for Airbnb with course members and our course member live soon but uh we'll see Cuban friends that say Airbnb is going bananas you're saying same same in Cuba uh let's see we went on vacation last month to Costa Rica to talk to a local who said Airbnb is booming there people who make 300 a month can now make 300 a week by switching to Airbnb nice uh that's why Uncle Jesse says same in Cuba man that reminds me of Full House I used to love Full House uh Cuban friend says it's going bananas well there's some very good anecdotes I have to say that's pretty good so we'll have to look into potentially those International expansions although how much is international expected to be as a percentage of revenue for Airbnb I don't know and who knows maybe maybe Q4 is a trough for them or they ended up Surviving I have no idea uh we'll see yeah we'll also be talking about shorting Builder stocks potentially so we'll have a lot to talk about and of course member lives over the next week here so that'll be fun uh anyway those are those are the big catalysts that we want to pay attention to
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