저자: Kevin · 외국인
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경기침체 취소 여부를 두고 JP모건은 디스인플레이션이 일시적일 수 있고 2~3분기 주식 에어포켓을 경고. 발언자는 고용 호조·마진 완충으로 노랜딩(연착륙 불필요) 시나리오 가능성을 제시. 반면 소비재 기업(유니레버·펩시)은 가격인상 한계와 마진 압박을 언급하며, 이익 감소가 노랜딩 시나리오의 핵심 연결고리라고 주장. 재생에너지·AI/테크 강세, 식품·필수소비재 약세 전망.
다듬은 글
the recession is canceled or is it and that's the big question we've got to talk about now because now there's a big debate going on on Wall Street about are we going to experience a hard Landing a soft Landing or no landing at all that's what's being debated by economists now and the fed's mouthpiece Nikki T is adding some insight and some commentary into it and we'll analyze that as well as providing more perspective but first we got to look at what JP Morgan has to say and JP Morgan isn't very excited JP Morgan suggests that disinflation that we are seeing in markets now might end up just being transitory which this is basically egg in the face of the Federal Reserve it's the idea that hey Federal Reserve y'all thought that inflation going up was going to be transitory and what ended up happening it ended up skyrocketing and Lasting a whole lot longer and being being a whole lot bigger than you thought it was going to be and while that might be what every woman in America wants to hear it's not what we want to hear in economies now you've got folks like Marco klonovac over at JPM suggesting hey hey wait a minute now you're arguing we're seeing disinflation Mr jpow yeah well we think your disinflation might end up being transitory in this next upcoming CPI report could show us how transitory it ends up being that disinflation in other words right back to inflation and JP Morgan of course picks up on this idea that jobs growth is pouring cold water on the idea of a soft Landing uh that uh ultimately jobs growth is reheating the economy they also suggest that at 68 of s p 500 companies have beat EPS estimates now while that's lower than the long term term average of 75 percent it's still pretty good it shows things aren't actually as bad as it seems and wage growth while it seems to be tentatively moderating because of higher job openings PMI starting to rotate back up again and uh reports from uh from earnings showing that maybe things aren't that bad maybe we might end up having to crimp the economy substantially further which this is basically JPM arguing hey you know you've got a situation right now where look you might end up having a fad that has to tight tighten a lot more than they think while at the same time companies are choosing well do we lay off people or continue to see margins suffer because margins are the big buffer right now and JP Morgan suggests in their belief the stock market is going to end up hitting an air pocket in Q2 or Q3 this is all in reference to kind of like the the soft Landing idea and it's basically suggesting hey if the plane comes in for a soft Landing that's one thing JP Morgan thinks we're still flying but we're gonna hit an air pocket and kind of fall in like a sort of turbulent pattern in Q2 and Q3 and the reason we're going to do that in their opinion is because the Federal Reserve is likely to hike more aggressively and that is going to end up hitting earnings and especially stocks a lot more than individuals are expecting in fact JP Morgan throws cold water on this idea that hey look we broke the 200-day moving average there's a golden cross we've got all these technicals suggesting to potentially the beginning of a new business cycle what does JP Morgan say no we are not at the beginning of a new business cycle or or you know economic cycle we are actually at the tail end of the current crash and that actually means there's more pain to come and this idea of a soft Landing is nonsense well to counter this sort of bearish view from JP Morgan that the soft Landing is nonsense and that things are going to get worse and if anything we should actually be looking at a hard Landing now to counter that you actually have this idea of well maybe we shouldn't be talking about a landing at all and this is what Nikki T has been tweeting he posted this article being published in today's print uh actually my newspaper should be sitting on my front lawn right now I'm a big fan by the way of reading print but I I'm also a fan of reading digital I do both uh and the print is great because you don't miss anything right I actually saw Charlie munger's op-ed in print and I'm like this is so cool just because it feels old school but anyway uh so hard or soft Landing some economists say neither if growth accelerates now this is very interesting because you have JP Morgan suggesting we're going for the hard Landing you've got technical analysts suggesting no we're going for a soft Landing because we broke the 200-day moving average and the numbers just aren't that bad you know companies aren't missing that terribly so well what does Nick T say in his article and where can we add some perspective well he says the following surprising strength in hiring and consumer spending last month together with signs that demand for Autos in the housing market might be stabilizing after a decline now have some economists pointing to a third scenario that seemed improbable just a few weeks ago an actual economic growth upturn in other words a no Landing scenario been talking about a landing and now let's talk about what if there's just no landing at all what if we don't actually have to land the economy what if we just keep on flying could be fantastic now Auto prices have moved up but it's worth noting that mortgage rates uh which which somewhat potentially signals a bottom in the used auto market but this idea that the housing market is picking up I think is a little bit of Click bait because unfortunately even though mortgage rate rates fell in December look just on screen now here at the tick up that we're seeing in mortgage rates going into February they're taking right back up at a 740 credit score you're still sitting at nearly six and a half percent at 6.44 for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage that's not necessarily conducive with the housing market that's going to pick up again if anything it's conducive with a housing market that's going to fall again but anyway let's keep going and add some perspective for this idea of a hard or soft Landing so here's an individual who talks about there's a huge reluctance to admit the obvious which is this idea that the economy is re-accelerating full stop says this particular individual from the research firm Renaissance macro now this is the idea that look people gaining jobs is actually a good thing remember Jerome Powell's dual mandate his dual Band-Aid is stable prices and maximum employment if we have stable prices he does not need to force a recession that is very important to remember drum Powell does not need to force a recession and create unemployment as long as we do not have the symptoms of a wage price spiral which so far it doesn't look like we have the symptoms of a wage price spiral if anything it's becoming easier for companies like Starbucks and Walmart and chipotle to hire individuals and as you saw with Lyft and Uber there's been a massive rise in the number of people willing to drive 36 percent increase at uh at Uber and as Lyft calls it an extreme increase in the availability of labor at Lyft leading to a reduction of prices leading to a reduction in Peak pricing leading to a reduction in margins for companies like Lyft now moving on there's some talk about here how the Federal Reserve has raised rates at the fastest Pace since the 80s and while wage growth slowed in January there was an increase in hourly hours worked which kind of implies this idea that hey maybe no wage price spiral but you're actually having an economy that's recovering a bit which is good now I think this so calls for patients and real estate because of the the uh pick up again in raids but you know you've got this idea now that what if we have no landing at all now some people like folks over at Morgan Stanley respond and they say well you know uh the longer we fly the longer we have a risk that we run out of fuel and we break something I personally actually think sure it's possible we could have a Black Swan but I actually think this analogy is kind of flawed this idea that we have to come in for a landing at all and it's true you know if maybe maybe we were coming in for a landing but now we're doing a go around or where you know what we're like we don't want to land anymore we're just going to hit the gas and fly again you know planes that are coming in for a landing they can just hit the gas and take off again like they don't actually have to touch the ground at all I think it's it's easy to forget that uh and and so this idea of of constantly comparing the economy to a plane it kind of suggests that well why didn't we run out of fuel in 2014 or 15 or 16 or 17 or 18 or 19 when the economy he's just continuing to grow the in my opinion we have to remember that work is basically fuel for the analogy of the plane so the more the economy functions and grows the more fuel it actually has so this idea that we have to force a recession uh or land the economy I I think is actually a fair one to say that we don't need to it is fair to say that maybe there is a no Landing scenario at all uh and that really we are seeing the biggest cushion come into play from uh margins at companies and we'll talk about that in just a moment but regarding the economy itself we're now sitting at a 90 chance that we're going to hike rates to five percent by June that's double that odd from a 45 uh from 45 percent ago uh just a month ago and we're seeing more spending right we saw retail sales rebound consumer spending rebound Visa Mastercard all reiterating this uh Nick t apparently forgot that mortgage rates have already moved back up and now this is an interesting one because Nick T doesn't provide all of the color that he should hear and this is where I always like to provide additional perspective see Nick T here mentions that Unilever the maker of Dove and Ben and Jerry's ice cream mentioned that Revenue was up nine percent in the fourth term even as volumes fell and Prices rose 11 Pepsi talks about increasing sales prices as well well fortunately I actually have those earnings calls and one of the things that I noticed going through these earnings calls that's very very clear is that these companies while the yes they do talk about increasing prices they talk about no longer being able to increase prices suggesting that the consumer is burned out of price increases let's look at Unilever a little bit in detail and let's look at Pepsi a little bit in detail so what do we have over here so uh we have uh we have volume being impacted more than expected volume was less than they would have modeled at these levels of price growths and that's because they have experienced extraordinary inflation this is Unilever so it's important to know that yes these companies have experienced uh inflation and there is still inflation in the pipeline and that yes as China comes back we should see potentially some pressure on Commodities but what does Unilever say here gross margin was down 210 basis points reflecting the fact that the fact that despite stepping up pricing and Landing higher delivery from our savings programs we were very mindful of the pressure on consumers and chose not to fully offset the extraordinary level of inflation through pricing in other words they didn't have the big enough PP to pass on all of the price increases this actually shows you that even though oh even though you still hav we can't keep raising prices we can't keep raising prices because we don't have that big of a PP and this in my opinion is not a sign as Nick T implies in his article that oh my gosh these companies are raising all this pricing that's where he stops in the article but Nick bro you gotta go a step further man you got to go a step further and analyze is it possible that those price increases are done or that they're not actually a full price increase that could be made and the answer to that is absolutely yes the companies themselves are telling you that even with the increases we are getting hit with margin we are not able to fully cover the price increases currently and even though we were able to cover a lot of them we are not going to be able to continue doing that in 2023.
in fact Unilever is now talking basically about scamming people okay I'm being a little facetious with that but they're basically talking about yeah we're looking into our architecture for how we package products to basically try to pass on higher pricing while giving less product right when they talk about price pack architecture that's what they're talking about it's like your beer that was ten dollars used to be 12 ounces now it's 10.9 ounces right that's basically shrinkflation uh and and they're they're frustrated because they're realizing their margins are getting crimped listen to this quote right here I'm I'm literally reading it from the horse's mouth here so that's a bit of a comprehensive Tour on the last year characterized by high levels of pricing and pack price architecture and lower levels of promotion that's 2022.
this year there will need some we will need some level or some list pricing and probably use mix more in 2023 than we have historically in English peepee down we can't raise prices as much anymore volume is expected to be negative going into the next year because of price elasticity being limited people have a limit to how much they are able to pay and so you are seeing that limit show up over here you're seeing PP falling that is Unilever but Nikki T didn't just mention Unilever He also mentioned Pepsi so what does Pepsi tell us because after all Pepsi raise prices a lot right well let's go over to Pepsi and let's just briefly look at what Pepsi has to say for us okay first thing we have right here is on inflation I have a couple of comments on that number one obviously inflation is still out there as a factor for us partly the fact that inflation is still high it's not as high as it was before but then the numbers are still relatively high so we know this in the food and beverages space and Aerospace space space you still have lingering Embers of inflation we know that we know that with certainty but what do they talk about instead of raising prices what does Pepsi talk about yeah um this year we really want to grow productivity they literally say that we're looking to drive a lot of productivity this year and put Investments back into the business and consumers are responding positively to this but our expectation is to hopefully have margins in line with 2022.
so listen to that for a moment they're going to increase productivity in 2022 but have margins in line with 2022. in other words their costs might be going up but they're not able to pass those costs on to their consumers instead they're going to increase productivity to preserve their margins think about that visually for a moment okay if the red line is pricing and the orange line is cost on the left it's 22 on the right it's 2023.
if the company is saying hey we want to have the same bottom line which is the X we want the bottom line to be at the same level margin if we want margin to be at the same level and we're not increasing pricing instead we're going to increase productivity to absorb uh the the orange increase here then we are preserving margin through more productivity not by raising prices that's what they're talking about here we're not raising prices anymore uh or we're not able to anymore because people are starting to react negatively right that's a problem so I wanna so here's somebody who wants to ask about pricing and the higher range and stuff they're or they're talking about winning uh uh winning uh winning market share they talk about how in the last two years there's been more pricing increases in the last two years uh obviously we know that we've had a lot of inflation the last two years so that's not a surprise and then over here we have uh Revenue growth still growing at a healthy rate and we feel good about that guide uh and volumes yeah volumes might go down a little bit but let's see how the year plays out so and they say right now the consumer is still quite good but we're planning for multiple scenarios so what do you have when you actually read the entire Pepsi earnings call you don't have a company that same thing at Unilever you don't actually have a company that is saying hey we're going to keep raising prices that's not what you have at all so Nick T in his article is like basically ending the article by saying uh well you know I have still inflation uh but the reality is these companies are out of steam these companies I'm going to write it down are out of steam to raise prices instead they're talking about productivity and volumes going down that's what they're talking about productivity to preserve margins and volumes going down they're also talking about packaging uh stuff differently to basically trick the consumer I mean that's just what shrinkflation is right it's a trick of the consumer uh and so even though there might be higher input costs they realize the ability to pass that on to Consumers is limited and I think this is something very important to remember is that the Federal Reserve right now cares about c p lie oh sorry I meant to say CPI there we go the Federal Reserve right now cares about CPI they do not as much care about b p i and the fed's version of CPI is p c e personal consumption expenditures anyway this is important because these are very different consumer and personal is very different because it's the end product price the end product price at companies even like Unilever and Pepsi or other companies like Starbucks and chipotle and Whole Foods uh at the clothing companies all of the companies that I'm reading about that sell stuff to Consumers are like we are tapped we can't raise prices anymore the only places I'm actually seeing price increases are like in Aerospace or Industrials and in some of these raw material impact inputs for producers so we could be in a situation where yes you still have producer price inflation but you don't have as much CPI or pce so what does that mean because you might ask yourself but Kevin but Kevin if input costs go up so in other words if costs go up the PPI goes up how is it possible that CPI doesn't go up what's simple it's the elasticity of demand puts a limit there's a ceiling and that ceiling is measured by CPI but Cavett if the producer price goes up doesn't the a ceiling have to go up no because people stop demanding the goods or the services if it goes up so then who pays for it Kevin simple margin margin go down profit at companies goes down let me make that even more simple earnings go down and so this is where you can actually potentially go back to this JP Morgan article where they talk about seeing equities hitting an air pocket during Q3 and Q2 why because earnings go down earnings go down not inflation go up for consumers that could actually potentially lead to the no Landing scenario so what is a potential no Landing recession is canceled scenario look like well here's what it looks like throw that up on screen a no Landing scenario looks like the following it looks like basically uh job growth wage stability so in other words more people employed but wage stability it looks like Consumer Price stability it looks like Embers of inflation still coming through but new Embers not forming it means earnings down especially at food and Staples this is a red flag because if you are if you have been investing in Staples in 2022 you're probably going to see the margin impact in 2023 so that's something to keep in mind so how do you potentially avoid that impact well potentially you look for pricing power stocks where could those be maybe and it depends how the economy moves this could flip-flop but maybe that could end up being uh in Renewables if the economy does well if the economy does poorly uh then and you actually do go into recession Renewables would probably do poorly uh it's potentially in uh uh in tech and and AI in in stocks that have substantially uh been burdened but now these companies have hopefully streamlined their margin a little bit by laying off and maybe we go back to uh economic growth and then generally these companies that have sold off over the last year would be the beneficiaries of that maybe right but it depends so these Renewables of tech AI would be great in a re-acceleration environment if we actually do go into recession environment this is the the the riskiest scenario because this is where you just ultimately have a selldown of everything right as we've seen over the last year but anyway the no Landing scenario is actually bullish in my opinion for for growth Renewables sort of a re-acceleration in that area and not so great for restaurants and uh your uh your your more uh price sensitive uh areas so uh you know again you're looking at uh uh evidence of this this cap on pricing even coming from Tyson Foods right price and foods like yeah look some of our costs are going up but we we just can't raise prices anymore because our PP is getting small something important to keep in mind very very very important
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