저자: Vinnie · 외국인
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마이클 베리의 13F에서 알리바바·JD닷컴 보유가 확인되며 JD 실적 후 주가가 상승했다. 두 출연자는 JD의 FCF 수익률(약 50%)과 시가총액 대비 순현금이 알리바바보다 매력적이라고 평가했다. 알리바바는 FCF 수익률 약 21%, 핀두오두오는 성장률 94%이나 FCF 산정이 과대일 수 있다고 지적했다. 중국 기업 할인율 리스크를 인정하면서도 JD 추가 매수 의향을 밝혔다. 다음 주~2주 내 알리바바·핀두오두오 실적 발표가 예정되어 있다.
다듬은 글
jd.com supported earnings Michael bur owns it Vian and I both own Alibaba stock which is one of their biggest competitors we're going to take a look at the Chinese e-commerce Market segment and look at some numbers comparing the three big giants in that market we'll get to it two stupid guys TR stops so I own Alibaba and I know you do as well but I do not as of yet own JD or pindu Duo and I'm looking at this as a potential investment for myself this is kind of where I'm approaching it from this FYI so I own JD I own a lot I have like 250 shares all right um I bought I'm not going to lie to yet as soon as bur went in I was thinking about it before that I was like that's all I need I'm good well well we're going to see some numbers here still more research to be done but it's definitely interesting so this is from Michel bur's most recent 13f filing um as you can see Baba was his largest position by market cap or market value but just right behind it it was jd.com um he increased his kind of ownership stake in both in the most recent quarter um and he has owned them since basically the end of 2022 so this is a position they was accumulating throughout the entirety of 2023 um now you know big pop on earnings this week I'm actually not going to look at the earnings report itself we could do a separate video on that um but Market reaction was pretty positive okay so I went back and I want to we're going to look at the charts real quick and then we're going to look at my favorite kind of comparison metric for valuation which is like the free cash flow yield amongst the large Chinese e-commerce companies and look at what market share they currently have amongst each other so we'll look at that in a minute here but if you want to look at the charts first Dylan yeah so this is a this is JD so it's kind of an odd relationship so when JD does well even though their competitors Baba will do well and vice versa it's like it's like Nvidia and AMD right when Nidia gets a contract AMD goes up for no explicable reason which is great I have a bunch of AMD but just as a good example AMD is up almost 30% of the market cap since earnings with zero news so nothing so if JD keeps having great news it's actually beneficial if you own B so weirdly enough um In fairness they share a lot of macro Trends with each other right because they're both operating chiefly in the Chinese market um ton of volume on that day you can see they jumped from 2150 to 2530 they had a little bit of a correction but they've still finished up a bit go to the next one yeah uh baba baba you know same thing jumped up I I don't we're kind of in a very narrow channel between 70 and 75 that we have been this gray dash line is the 100 moving average JD and Baba are both having a difficult time jumping above that if you zoom out they've attempted multiple times so it's coming to a part where we're having higher lows into that average so something's gonna happen here yeah I'm hoping but pindu DOA has a very different story uh from very different far as valuation yep yeah so it's funny because this is the one I don't own this has the best graph so they their high is 212 um they're actually I mean down L but they're killing it they're doing really well stockwise I I think teu is in my opinion but stockwise looks good okay interesting I'll talk a little bit more about that when we get to the actual slide for pindu a do but so this is JD this is the one that just reported earnings right here this is this is like the insanity of the Chinese market right now from a valuation standpoint I understand people argue all day and all night that you cannot use traditional like Western metrics to Value these companies because there's such a systemic risk of them being CCP controlled entities that you have to worry about that um but look at this $ 35 billion market cap with a 23 billion net cash position that's unheard of I Didn't Know I Was that high it's that's worse than Baba by a lot by a big percentage the revenue is higher than Baba actually too now part of that is just because they have a different business model they're the direct retailer more than Alibaba tries to do that as little as possible be more platform company which the same thing you'll kind of see with pindu Doo um so they're not exactly like apples to apples competitors there uh but you know still you know a kind of good metric I guess in terms of their size in the Chinese e-commerce market and the revenue growth for the last year was about 3.7% so not not enormous but the one-year stock performance down 48.94 per 50% off in a year and they still had Positive Growth right yeah trailing 12 month free cash flow is $5.7 billion giving them a free cash flow yield of almost 50% that's better than Baba yeah yeah do you feel better really huh do you feel better about owning your JD shares now I do I'm at Brank even I think I'm at like 22 or 23 for the buying yeah so I'm happy with it all right so I I'm going to do some more digging but I might be adding some JD shares guys this is a big deal when Vinnie buys something he doesn't do it often right he he just recently decided intel was a bad idea after like 15 years this is pretty big deal absolutely so Alibaba this is the one that I own uh 84.5 billion market cap as of today $ 68.6 billion net cash position $130 billion in Revenue last uh you know 12 months um 6% growth rate actually I took that from their most recent uh quarter League grow growth rate they're actual yearly so far was 9% but their calendar is a little skewed so they're going to be reporting like the next like their full year the next quarter so because they're three months off in the the calendar right yeah stock performance down 16.5% 7% over the last year okay not nearly as bad as uh uh JD but still negative territory especially when you look at the fact that the sp500 was up like what 23% last year but trilling 12 month free cash flow of $24.25 billion giving them a free cash flow yield of 21.2% so it's still ridiculous it's just if you compare it to Jed it doesn't look as impressive but that's still absolutely disgusting because I think Apple's three yeah so when you when you're looking at uh you know kind of the free cash flow yield to me anything over 10 that is still a solid company that's growing you know even a little bit is is phenom nominal deal right uh you're getting down to 5% I will pay that for a company that has great growth like double digit percentage growth um and if we get down to two and a half 3% that's kind of the range where it's like it's a noo for me even if they had phenomenal growth okay okay now we're going to look at pindu Doo market cap $155 billion okay so that is the second largest by market cap they they have actually had points exceeded alibaba's market cap uh net cash position you know all these companies are are cash positive you don't have a lot of debt so net cash positive 25.6 billion all right they had $28 billion in Revenue last year so it's the smallest as far as that goes the nice thing about being so small is look at this Revenue growth number this is the most recent quarter 94% year-over-year 94 yeah okay that's gross but I mean they were smaller so you know yeah yeah actually but their market cap is still five JDS which is pretty wild it is it is indeed um you know that's why the stock is up 25% uh in one year right now I I actually sent Dylan a video clip earlier there was a financial times uh piece that came out yesterday uh about pinu Doo teimo and some of the shenanigans and their kind of secret and and you know willingness to not really disclose things publicly so this was an interesting one their free cash flow they don't actually list any purchases properly planned equipment that I could find on their financial statement so that's not real a real free cash flow this is just their operating like uh cash flow it's you really should deduct from that what it takes to uh maintain the business right so this that's not a real good number that's higher than it really should be is my point there because even if you are more of a platform company which is what they you know are attempting to be um they still have to maintain servers and infrastructure so that doesn't make sense um but if I calculated based upon that giving them the full credit for it's 13.7% free cash flow yield so it's likely lower yes Max could be yeah and Chinese all right don't like that at all gave the red asteris there yeah so you you're pay you baba and JD and PDD will never be valued at the same as an Amazon Target whatever you're trying to compare it to because the risk is not the same there's still a risk that these go to zero it's it's small in my opinion but there's always a risk that and what was that Chinese Starbucks one that was just like lying about everything oh God I forgot their name already yeah but it was everything was a lie oh luck and coffee yeah luck and coffee there we go the there there's always a risk with that so you're going to pay a discount I just think the discount on JD more so apparently is is absurd it's a little bit absurd also JD has a drone airport enough said man that's it that's all you need yeah totally man drones the way of the future so they kind of give a comparison here know I kind of just basically looked at the revenue from these three companies to give you an idea of what portrait of the Chinese e-commerce Market they controlled now this isn't looking at the market overall this is just amongst these three but to give you a relative comparison in terms of Revenue number amongst these three like at Pino Doo is clearly the outlier here in terms of their size uh which helps explain that 94% year-over-year growth which is just absolutely phenomenal and you know we've seen or touched upon them in other ways um if you remember from the most recent meta earnings another stock I own they talked about the massive kind of AD spend they saw coming out of Teo and like if you spent any time on Instagram or Facebook over the last like couple quarters at least you've been no doubt bowed with teu ads right I've had a couple I just I I mean the amount of shitty things that like it's just you're buying stuff that breaks immediately it's like uh like wish or whatever yeah yeah absolutely so as far as like the next kind of major news here so we do have a a little bit of potential cows coming up as the the third member of this triumphant here will be reporting earnings sometime the next uh week or two it now they this is kind of goes to them moving in silence this is like the notorious b of Chinese companies here with real bad boys moving silence and violence you with me oh boy that a reference so they only U they report the date for their earnings like a week ahead of time so you know they don't really give you a firm date this is what NASDAQ estimates their their kind of earnings announcement to be is a brown March 18th but uh we'll get an announcement and then a week later we'll get the actual earnings so it's something that could move these stocks so like I I think I'm G to do a little bit more due diligence over the weekend I might do a separate video just entirely about JD and looking at them um but uh they're climbing my ladder and and making me very intrigued about adding that although I wouldn't think I'd want more Chinese stock exposure but damn that 49% that's insane to me this is how different me and you are bur bought it and I had already looked at it for a little bit so I was like that's enough for me now you're like I might buy it I'm going to buy a 100 more shares tomorrow I don't even need to know all right guys well let us know what you think about jd.com and other Chinese retail companies down in the comments down below we'd love to hear your thoughts have a good one
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