저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 경기침체 정의 변경 논란을 다루며, 현 경제는 침체 가능성이 크다는 입장이다. 백악관/정부가 침체 정의를 바꾸려 한다는 마이클 버리 트윗을 소개하며 논란을 제기한다. 시청자는 GDP 2분기 연속 마이너스를 침체로 봐온 관행을 근거로 든다. 과거 2분기 연속 GDP 감소는 매번 공식 침체로 이어졌고 2020년도 침체로 분류됐다고 설명한다. 옐런 재무장관은 고용이 유지되고 가계가 튼튼하다고 말했으나, 진행자들은 이를 반박한다. 미국인 55~65%가 월급으로 생활하고 저소득층 소비 악화(월마트 발언 인용), 개인저축률 약 2% 수준, 가계부채 증가, 자동차 할부 부담 확대를 근거로 든다. 미국 국가부채가 2022년 1분기 16조 달러로 2006년 이후 최대 분기 증가를 기록했다고 지적한다. 연준의 금리 인상은 경기 둔화를 목표로 한 것이며, 이로 인해 GDP가 떨어지는 것이 의도된 결과라고 분석한다. 다만 파월 발언을 인용해 경제가 둔화하면 정책을 바꿀 수 있다는 점도 언급한다. 뉴욕 연은의 8월 2일 가계부채 보고서 발표를 주목할 이벤트로 꼽는다. 금리·환율 등 개별 자산 가격 목표나 매수·매도 추천은 언급되지 않았다. 출연자 전망: 두 진행자 모두 미국 경기침체 가능성을 우려하는 입장이며, 정부의 침체 정의 변경 시도에 비판적이다.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to supergastric socks i'm dylan i'm vinnie and today we're going to look at how the government is changing the definition of a recession how the media is helping them change the definition of a recession and how michael bury is calling them out correctly calling them out correctly ladies and gentlemen we have never seen this kind of ridiculousness happen and uh we're gonna take a look because this is the stupidest thing i've ever seen yeah love to hear about it there are no rules in a midterm year uh election year dylan okay uh of two stupid guys trading stocks talking all things personal finance by all means give us like subscribe below we'd love to have you along this little adventure of ours with that we'll get to it have you seen the movie don't look up on netflix think so okay the premise of that movie is they kind of make something political which i'm gonna try to stay away from government and political stuff a little bit here i have to hit it once though um yeah you definitely have to hit it once um in the movie there's an asteroid hurling uh towards earth okay and there's one group saying oh my gosh we gotta do something we need to fix this but the president is like oh that's bad for numbers uh people get really depressed when the end of the world's coming let's just hold off let's just hold off a little bit right so you have this this whole group of people that are on i don't know if there was whatever side the president was on the meryl streep saying don't look up right because if you look up you can see the asteroid and then they'll be like oh this is a problem right so they're literally doing chants don't look up until you know the end of the movie where like they start to look up they're like oh crap it's kind of ridiculous right yeah now we gotta watch it where am i going with this this is uh this is our boy bury's tweet here all right so the white house would like to redefine a recession as one in which consumers are not borrowing on credit cards to pay for inflation and neither is a labor force inadequate for the size of the economy great point and gdp out thursday not that there's anything wrong with that right and then here's the actual uh gov site it is unlikely that the decline in gdp in the first quarter this year even if it followed by another gdp decline in the second quarter indicates a recession okay what is the recession then that's what i want let's get into that what is a recession vinny because i'm very confused now now this is kind of interesting um this is on reddit wikipedia has updated the definition of a recession 22 times in the last 24 hours um as you can see this was taken down by reddit you could see the list of uh um changes on wikipedia just kind of interesting just you know take it after what it will why do they take it down are they trying to silence the people i don't know no conspiracy is a recession do you well what is a recession fitting it was classically defined as a two sequential quarters of negative gdp growth it's not exactly the most uh kind of solid firm definition but that's generally accepted what what the guidelines were but it has to be actually declared by i think was the bureau of economic affairs or some random government agency because like you know politics now let's just take that that suit i'll even say pseudo definition i'll i'll give it to you pseudo definition two negative gdp quarters right there were some people that were saying um 2020 there wasn't a true recession okay actually it was uh and it was notified by the organization that vinnie just said took place right here that's this gray mark here okay now you know what's weird the the gray marks here are recessions and every single time since there's been two negative uh quarters in a row gdp it has resulted in a recession do you think that's a coincidence you know it sure sounds like a little bit of a quinky dink to me i mean i i don't know but i'm just some stupid guy in the internet yeah every single time this has happened we have had a recession not this time though this time it's different all right um now people are going to say that 2020 doesn't count as a true recession here is all the sites that disagree with you um yeah i what do we know though we don't know anything oh yeah also federal reserve.gov is the most important one but yeah yeah also that one just in case i know there's going to be comments being like well that didn't count yes it did here you go um how many of these happen during election year that's the real question to me you know it's good good question yeah so yelling do you know who yelen is yeah she's the secretary of treasury at this point in time she was a former fed chair as well okay all right um yellen said insisted that this is broad-based weakening of our i'm sorry that a recession is broad-based week of our economy that includes substantial layoffs to be clear which we're not having business closures trains and household finances definitely are having and slow down and private sector activity right so she was quoted this is not what we are seeing right now okay when you look at the economy job creation is continuing household finances remain strong uh consumers are spending and businesses are growing all right yeah let's dissect this a little bit because uh there's clearly an elephant in the room here um let's just talk about she's householder huh i guess you didn't care what walmart had to say about uh budgets and inflation this week yeah nope didn't care at all 55 to 65 of americans are living paycheck to paycheck okay all right 48 percent that are making 100k also living paycheck to paycheck all right u.s debt hit 16 trillion in quarter one 2022 having the largest first quarter increase since 2006.
okay what happened after 2006. i can't i'm a little foggy uh you know it took a couple years but things things turned out not so great a little bit thereafter interesting that was the year michael murray was early to his biggest trade of his life yes right and you know inflation 9.1 but who cares inflation's not a big deal yeah um unless you're trying to buy oreos at walmart yeah true uh here's the personal savings rate we are lower than before covet okay i don't understand how our household finances as a country are remaining strong you can see this level being quite steady here let me move your uh your face here my face yeah being quite steady around 7.5 okay we're chilling around like two right like what's going on right now yeah people needing every dollar they bring in the door in order to buy basic necessities at this point in time that's literally walmart was saying at least the lower end consumer the walmart that's why amazon did so well is that their consumers are a higher end it's not a matter of contagion but it'll happen ridiculous so household finances remain strong consumers are spending um actually vinnie just finished my point there um no they're not do you you do have some companies saying everything's the same you're big companies like walmart being like no this is not the same and a lot of people buy stuff at walmart the problem is when you have a recession the poor people are hit first and it's it's it's really not a good time it's it's definitely rough on average consumers first before it goes up now august 2nd okay new york fed is going to release the quarter to 2022 household debt and credit report i'm hoping that we can notice in that report that all right household finances aren't super strong because people have more credit card debt than they have in a long time people are borrowing more money than they have in a long time and oh yeah people are spending money on cars with an 800 car payment uh more than like any time in the last 30 years what do i know though we don't know what we're talking about you can always find ridiculous examples of things but i recently saw a youtube channel that does like uh uh personal budget analysis and there was a girl they interviewed that was making twenty four hundred dollars a month and she was paying a thousand dollars a month in car payments it's really sustainable long term that's an absolute nightmare here so vinnie how do you feel about it it's like it's literally like the movie like don't look up like we're changing i understand the argument is look at all the jobs fine look at every other aspect though look at every other time gdp has decreased twice why does everyone always think this time is different it's like like if you don't wear a seat belt in a car it's like well i won't get in a car accident that's other people no i thought that works how you feeling you know yeah i i i honestly don't know at this particular point in time there's this fed ratcheting up interest rates is designed to put brakes in the economy that's what we need we need consumers to slow down whether or not they want to flat out say it that's what the goal of this whole thing was to calm inflation we need consumers to still slow down we need to drop in gdp as a result of this this is what they were trying to achieve but did you see daddy powell's comments this week he said well you know if the economy starts to switch maybe we'll change our our economic policy so they can get the you know start getting that you know stimulus back in the arm that's what they're looking for oh great that's gonna help a lot all right guys uh let us know how you're feeling about this and hopefully i'm not alone and seeing that this is the most ridiculous thing i've ever witnessed so yeah have a good one
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