OMG *FED Speaker JUST EXPOSED what’s Happening!*

요약 보기

연준 Waller 발언을 근거로 미국 PCE 인플레이션이 연율 1.8% 이하, 근원은 1% 미만으로 낮다고 해석. 임대료(OER) 하락과 외식업 침체 등을 근거로 인플레 둔화를 강조하며, 연준이 금리를 더 빨리 내릴 수 있고 이에 따라 채권금리가 하락할 것으로 전망. 다만 경기침체 우려와 확실성 없음을 함께 언급.

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01. wow what Waller from the Federal Reserve just said is well somewhat really unexpected and surprising on inflation but frankly expected on what they were trying to accomplish with rates remember when Powell reduced rates 50 we expected Powell would want to see some loosening of financial conditions lowering of rates but yields on basically the entire curve both the you know 2year the 10 year or even out to the 2030s they went up so my expectation was the Fed was going to talk those down somehow what I was not expecting was what Waller just mathed out on inflation Waller just told us hey markets were so focused on expectations and whether we beat or missed on CPI or PPI but what they didn't do was calculate out what pce inflation is running at on an annualized basis so in other words what is the estim for August pce which we don't get until the end of this month what is the estimate for um August pce based on that CPI PPI reading uh and what is that change month over month multiplied by 12 and what's basically the speed we're driving at in inflation and what he said was shocking he said the annualized rate of inflation right now on PC is likely under 1.8% on the headline and likely under 1% at Poe and that is with hot housing inflation now remember when CPI and PPI came out I said wow okay the areas that popped were lodging in air travel okay so we saw a pop there uh and then what we also saw is that owner's equivalent rents are obviously still substantially higher than current market rents which when we look at current market rents they're mostly flat some areas you've actually just got straight up declines so as long as that holds we know owners equivalent rents will keep coming down which given that that's 25 % of pce 34% of CPI a huge component of inflation is housing that's one of the remaining hot sectors which is basically plummeting and even with that hot data you're running at 1.8% inflation annualized you know monthly Pace annualized times 12 and you don't use exponents you multiply by 12 uh and uh and core less than 1% this is really consistent with what we've been talking about not just on the channel but we analyze company earnings every company that we see is talking about how do we provide more value to our customers uh they're not talking about price increases anymore they're talking about how do we advertise this new value the restaurant industry is freaking out because traffic to restaurants is in the toilet uh some of the the performance indices for restaurants are at recessionary levels levels we haven't seen since 2008 and uh 2001 or even covid which is weird uh and you know what that means for recession some people say it's an indicator some people say it's it's a restaurant industry problem you know people are fed up with the high inflation it's also possible people are just running out of money you know they had a lot of money a big net worth Boost from covid and and and now that's sort of waning out uh but anyway this is really really actually good news on inflation because it it is consistent with not seeing a second wave of inflation of course it's always possible that more money printing after they create a recession could create a second wave I don't think so you know that about me but I want to acknowledge that possibility but at least what we're seeing from companies is exceptionally low inflation uh and it reiterates what Waller is saying here and now what you're seeing is yields are coming down because he's suggesting look if inflation keeps falling like this we can drop rates even faster than we had been expecting to you know obviously if there's a Resurgence we can even pause but the data we're estimating now is that it's plummeting which is actually fantastic news it's good news because it is a way of finally explaining a little bit of why did Powell go 50 well maybe Powell's being being honest and he doesn't see as much economic weakness and they're just moving faster on 50 because inflation is falling faster a lot of people think though behind the scenes it might also be trying to cover up some real underlying fears that they have about the actual strength of the economy because frankly if Waller came up today and said yeah we went 50 because yeah inflation's falling faster than we expected but also things are going to sh9t well then you would just induce a recession because by by them admitting that they're fundamental problems uh you would just exacerbate those problems as people flee to Safety stock market Falls and then you get layoffs and and you get all the drama that comes with that so anyway bottom line out of all of this this is actually a fantastic First Fed speak next fed speak uh we've got a really busy fed Waller's the only one today really busy fed day on Monday uh and the next Thursday we'll actually get Powell uh as well as multiple other speakers like kashari who's deemed to be one of your biggest Hawks but he voted for a 50 so so uh it's going to be really interesting I I personally think over this next week you're going to see yields plummet but that's my take we'll see no guarantees bye uh I said that twice goodbye good luck and I love you bye