저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준이 50bp 인하를 단행했으나 역사적으로 50bp 인하 사이클 후 경기침체 확률이 약 50%로 높다고 주장. 인하 직후 장기금리가 오르며 금융여건이 오히려 긴축됐다고 분석. 파월의 '경제 양호' 발언과 실제 행동의 괴리를 지적하고, 향후 1~6주 데이터에 따라 포지션을 재조정할 계획이라고 밝힘. 영상 말미에 유료 강의 홍보가 포함됨.
다듬은 글
wow this is wild most people are cheering what the Federal Reserve just did but I was not expecting this from The Wall Street Journal editorial aboard Jerome Powell says economy is strong but still Cuts rates by 50 basis points okay cool teas before we get into this sort of shocker of a review by The Wall Street Journal editorial board let's just quickly remind you what happened today this is not going to be the full summary of what the FED just said watch that other video on the channel because it's pretty odd but basically what you got is you got 50 basis points of cuts yet literally he literally said these words everything is fine and the economy and jobs are strong that's what he said and the fact of the matter is history suggests that when you cut by 50 everything is not fine and so this is leaving some wondering was this political did Jerome Powell cut by 50 because he wants to give Democrats a boost to prevent Donald Trump from becoming president and firing Jerome Powell or maybe he wants to keep his job and not see inflation from a trump trade War that's possible as well that's sort of the jaded political point of view but it could have some merits uh then there are also the facts of history for example consider this in the last 21 rate cut Cycles last 21 of them every time well I shouldn't say every time but when we started with 50 plus so a 50 plus basis point cut we had a recession follow just over 50% of the time so in other words if you start with 50 you're at about a 50% chance of recession because just based on history the last 21 rate cut cycles that have started with 50s have followed you know a recession or have led to a recession 50% of the time 50 50 hm interesting what's also really weird is that if you look at a starting with a 25 BP cut you have a recession just about one qu of the time which is kind of an interesting and unique way to remember this you start with 50 you get recession 50% of the time start with 25 you get recession 25% of the time it's a little odd but the last two times we started with 50 we were 2000 and 2007 in fact what's honestly I think the easiest way to just put this really eerie and and this is extremely Eerie is oh we're uh doing a flash sale that expires tomorrow at noon for the courses on building your wealth so if you want to see how I'm repositioning after this fed meeting what changes I'm making going into the end of the year is it time to go all in what is it time to sell everything is it time to go for different options you can see what I'm doing with my $2.5 million trade come join me in the course member live stream tomorrow uh meetkevin.com you get lifetime access when you sign up no it's actually that exactly 17 years ago today 17 years ago today the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half percentage point to start a rate cut cycle and look at this I tweeted this or posted this exactly 17 years ago the FED cut rates by 50 B basis points in a surprise and quote bold move even though some suggested that would mean the Fed was acting out of desperation literally September 18th 2 the day here's the CNN article CNN September 18th 2017 17 years ago Dude I was 15 years old I was I I got my learner permit fed's dramatic action lowers Target on key short-term rate for the first time in four years fed cuts by half percentage point from literally 5.25 to 475 exactly the same as what we have now and there's even a quote some investors had thought that fed share banki would take a more cautious approach and not cut rates by such a large margin because a half point cut could signal the Fed was acting out of desperation to save the economy hm that's interesting see but that also aligns with my thesis that you know which we talked about in the other video that like dude is this is weird like is the Fed lying to us because you know there there this is a hawkish 50 is what we got right we really got a hawkish 50 and this morning in the course member live stream we talked about how there were various different directions you could go we thought you'd probably like the most stable results for stocks would be a dovish 25 or a hawkish 50 we kind of got a hawkish 50 so the problem now with that is the federal and then we got to talk about the Wall Street Journal article the problem with that hawkish 50 is you just had the 10-year curve move up seven basis points you had the two-year move up two basis points and what you really did is you really just tightened monetary conditions so I want to talk about this Wall Street Journal article but think about that you just cut by 50 basis points to support the labor market okay but but what did you actually do by being so like jubilant and hawkish what you accomplished was making it harder to support the labor market you actually raised rates in practice because I mean really the fomc rate does doesn't really matter with the exception of your like money market accounts what matters is you know what car loan can you get what mortgage loan can you get what credit card rate can you get and we just saw yield curves on in the bond market move up not down which of course we could argue that a few things are happening here you know why would the yield curve go up well there are a few reasons the yield curve could go up uh the yield curve could go up in part because of profit taking I know there were a lot there were a lot of traders that are like okay I'm taking profits going into the FED meeting because it's going to be a buy the rumor sell the news on bonds so a lot of people bought bonds before the FED meeting and they're like oh okay I'm going to take my profits cool that's great some of these trades have been up like 202% but if we're truly going to potentially price in a greater chance of recession now that market rates are actually going up not down which is the opposite of what the FED is trying to accomplish then what you're really doing is you're setting up for not like a 20 or 30% gain on bonds but you're potentially especially if you go with like option contracts uh you're potentially setting up for a double triple or quadruple uh on on bond related plays if you have to start pricing in a recession which you're actually creating a higher likelihood of recession given that your actions just led the market to price in higher rates now again you could have this just be predictable profit taking Mak sense everybody dumps right after the FED meeting profit taking very very normal uh it could also be because drum pal talked about high the like a higher neutral rate but come on he's said that every freaking meeting in the last year it could be because people believe the fed's assurances of no recession I'm not sure about that or it could be because of the feds talk about a normalization in real estate you're also seeing like an off Trend bounce here right uh and and don't take my word for it but look at uh here we go uh here the market ear did a piece on this I thought it was pretty good and you could see the 10year they say bouncing off Channel lows so this is their chart right here the market year uh bouncing off Channel lows and then you come down here and look at this this is the downtrend you've had on the 10e keep in mind the peak of this was basically when Bill amman's like Shields are going to go way past 5% and then they hit like 4.99 and then they plummeted when he covered but anyway you're literally bouncing off that channel right here so not highly unusual my take is that you're going to get a lot of fed speak that's like oh my gosh we just push yields up that actually hurts us trying to accomplish a goldilock soft Landing which potentially means we need to talk this down so I think you're going to get a lot of fedspeak over the next few weeks that tries to go we might actually price in more 50s you know because they want to talk yields down uh because again the whole point of this is supposed to be to make the bond market and financial conditions soften but listen to what the Wall Street Journal editorial board says the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday cut its short-term interest rate target by 50 basis points and the question is whether to believe what chairman Powell says or what he does holy smokes the Wall Street Journal editorial board is sussing out Powell they're literally like bro this some bow you're telling us everything is fine you literally said the words everything is fine like the meme and you cut 50 listen to their words Mr Powell in his press conference said all is well in the economy but such aggressive monetary easing suggests he's more worried than he sounds yeah cuz he wants statue on the walls he wants his Mount Rushmore you know he doesn't want to screw up the soft Landing so that's why he's going 50 but I think this whole idea that everything is fine is quite frankly fugazi uh if you look at the beige book which he referenced as a reason as to why they went 50 it's not good most of the districts are in Decline yes the Atlanta fed numbers jumped because they use the latest retail sales information uh retail sales data which you know weren't great they're slowing on a 3month trend they're slowing on a year-over-year trend and yes retail sales popped but always remember that retail sales are extremely lagging Powell knows that he literally said during his press conference oh well unemployment claims are still fine and the consumer is holding up he's lying he knows these are so lagging if Powell is literally using unemployment claims to guide interest rate reduction we are completely effed so it's either he's stupid or he's lying I can't believe he mentioned unemployment claims but whatever I mean you could see how the Wall Street Journal editorial board's even susing him out Mr Powell said the FED is merely recalibrating policy regarding you know as we drift towards the 2% inflation Target but the 50% or 50 point cut plus the rapid Pace in the fed's estimates of future Cuts suggests a sharp tilt towards heading off more unemployment in other words it's like crap you know we we should we should hurry this up because we might actually like Miss the opportunity to stick to soft Landing which is slightly bullish right that's one of the reasons probably you also saw bonds sell off a little bit today because it's kind of like okay they're going for 50 they want to reduce the odds of recession so you have to unpriced odds of recession at least a little bit right if they went for 25 you wouldn't have to unpriced odds of recession as much but that doesn't mean it's not too late already anyway and so obviously the data will tell over the coming you know four to 6 weeks and and this is where everybody has to individually analyze is making you know this move right for you or whatever move right for you personally I'm going to do a lot of repositioning over the next six weeks and if you want to see every single reposition Move I Make going into the election make sure you use that fed 50 coupon we were not going to do a flash sale it ends tomorrow at 12:00 p.m.
California time we were not going to do a flash sale unless I was right about 50 and I was right about 50 so we're kind of like patting ourselves on the bat a little bit on the back a little bit In fairness okay but anyway yet at his press conference Mr Powell was all sunny side up he rightly noted that even 4.4% unemployment is low by historical standards and he cited optimistic notes that point to a strong labor market labor force participation job vacancies and clips that were uh and quits that were all part of a strong labor market these contradictory signals highlight the risk the FED is taking with its new rate cutting path Mr Powell's bet seems to be that if inflation is sufficiently whipped uh whipped that the FED can ease aggressively now to Forstall a Slowdown that hasn't yet arrived he may be right but obviously they're sussing this out right he may be right but even Michelle Bowman over at the FED first first descent in 2 years shows that there could be a credibility issue here or an agreement issue and uh you've got this note here this suggests investors heed the message in what Mr Powell did rather than what he said in other words that selloff we saw into the close which who knows we a bounce Green tomorrow who knows we'll see what happens tomorrow but the Wall Street Journal editorial board here is going you know people may have started taking profits because they're like oh crap Pal's acting like everything's Sunnys side up but come on man 50 a little bit of a sign you starting to get a little nervous anyway uh then of course they also mentioned that this could be a political issue as well they mentioned this regarding Donald Trump uh all of this actually very interesting coming from the Wall Street Journal editorial board so I find it very very fascinating but uh I want to hear what you think what do you think in the comments down below did we just stick a soft Landing is this the beginning of long-term success for markets or we going to see earnings in Q3 just blow our socks off and uh are we good you know are the next few labor reports going to be good and not revise down substantially is inflation going to stay low is this a Goldilocks soft Landing or are we part of that 50% chance camp where when you start with a 50 in the last 21 rate cutting Cycles the odds are you're actually leaning towards a recession you've turned it into a coin toss when markets are starting to price in you know maybe only what a 10 20% chance of recession otherwise I I don't think the stock market would be this high if we actually thought the odds of a recession were 50/50 it's a little odd to me now if I look at the world interest rate probability curve right now we're at about a 33% chance of a 50 basis point cut in uh in November so even the market doesn't fully believe Jerome Powell when he says oh yeah 50 and then look at the SCP what does the SCP say 50 25 25 okay we kind of predicted they might go for 50 25 25 but markets are already going n man 33% chance of 50 now I expect soft yapping from jpow well and everybody from the Federal Reserve now that we're out of the Blackout Window and I wouldn't be surprised we're going to get start getting some interviews over the next few days here from fed speakers and these interviews are going to talk yields down again because what they don't want to do right now is have actually heals in my opinion stay up because all it does is tighten Financial conditions and ironically increase the odds of recession this is what's so complicated here like part of me is like okay cool they went for 50 that should reduce the odds of recession but wait Market yields went up well what the hell if Market yields are actually going up then then this is a problem because now you're making things worse and not better oh man it is such a crazy freaking Market to try to understand and put all this crap together but hey you know what what I can always promise is I will be here every single day to 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