원문 보기
Kathy Wood Kathy Wood out with some new comments here today I want to go ahead and react to this three minute clip here give my opinion hear what Kathy Wood has to say Obviously it was a a very tough year for for Kathy Wood in 2022 as anybody that's investing in pretty much growth stocks out there was it was vicious right and I'm interested to hear her perspective what she has to say about this Market obviously Arc has started to rebound recently and growth stocks in general and kind of uh you know her her opinion and perspective from there we'll listen to Mr Jeffrey gunlock on his opinion about what what Jay Powell said today the FED said and his perspective on all this I'm looking forward to hearing this as well I had it on in the background earlier but I didn't really get to listen um intensely because I was kind of busy at that time it was like meta or there was like a lot going on um so I'm excited to listen to that and I just want to say thank you every single person that'll subscribe this channel we are now over 22 800 subscribers now at this point in time so I appreciate every single person that subscribe this channel thanks for being here guys uh I enjoy this Channel and doing these videos all the time I appreciate y'all also if you're looking to apply to join my private stock group the private wealth group The pinned comment down there will be to the application if you're looking to join us in there really only makes sense to apply if you have at least fifteen thousand dollars in your portfolio or you're gonna invest significant amounts of money and you're taking investing very serious for folks with maybe smaller amounts of money check out check out the patreon that will be linked in the description area and you get to see all the stocks I'm buying and how I built the patreon portfolio with only 150 each week all right let's get into this it's Arc invest Co and CIO Kathy word Kathy it is great to see you uh it has been a heck of uh a month it's been a heck of a two years been a heck of five years frankly we've been talking sort of about all of it but also I know you have some new ideas about what's going to happen this year and maybe some of your best ones but before we get to that I'm just sort of curious your broader broader context in terms of how you're thinking about the market and how you're thinking about your own performance both in the January period we've got the fed the backdrop of the FED is part of that but also just uh the larger backdrop over the past couple years sure uh I think um what we've been through is a a very big inflation and interest rate scare that hit long duration assets uh incredibly hard including long-term bonds wow I am I don't keep track of arcs I have a watch list on my my trading view um for Arc but I don't like look at it that often I had no clue Arc hit all the way down to 30 to 30.
like I remember it was in like 35 36 and that was like insane lows for Arc but I didn't know it got all the way down to 30. what in the world let's take a look at this here uh let's pull up a one year oh my gosh it got under 30 in December whoa whoa I did not know it got that bad oh my gosh I thought like I thought like 35 36 maybe 34 was the bottom frog I had no clue it went under 30.
that's insane man this year uh the worst performance in the bond market since the 1700s that's how bad this was what did she say the 1700s were if she did that's only something Kathy Wood would say hey what duration assets uh incredibly hard uh including long-term bonds last year uh the worst performance in the bond market since the 1700s that's how bad this was and of course that was going to only Kathy Wood would bring up some stat like that the worst performance since the 1700s how's that even possible what that's just crazy really hurt our strategies um but uh we do believe and we have been saying for some time that uh the inflation is unwinding we think that the market is leading the fed the bond market I think we're down to three and a half percent uh today on the 10-year treasury bond yield uh the the bond market is basically saying the FED is close to the end of this tightening move and is also saying that inflation will surprise on the low side of expectations which means when we look back that the past two years we have a few things going for us in regards to inflation because I know there's still worries about like another Spike up in inflation or what if CPI starts going up again and those sorts of things we we have a lot of things that are going for us now okay Transportation costs have come down immensely over the last six to nine months I'm not I'm anything in transport like I'm talking about if you're shipping something overseas if you're Trucking something like almost everything transportation wise is considerably cheaper than it was six months ago nine months ago okay that's something we have working for ourselves next thing we have working is Commodities went through this insane super cycle like we've never seen them the longest time okay and it went through that back in the spring in the summer time the likelihood you're going to get another commodity super cycle like that is I would call it like maybe a one to two percent probability it's a it's a possibility it's about a one to two percent probability you get some crazy super cycle so that's likely not happening third thing is we're going to comp these ridiculous numbers year over year win Commodities and everything was in this insane bull cycle right and so as we tick on here in 2023 and especially once again in the spring and the summer and you've got to comp those numbers year over year oh boy okay on top of that obviously uh housings come down considerably in terms of the rate of increase and rents are moderating I wouldn't be surprised there would be some markets in 2023 that actually I wouldn't be surprised if their rents actually go down at some points in 2023 in certain markets it's not all of them but some markets will actually see that so you don't have a lot to really go off of because it's just a huge worry about inflation but you just don't have a lot to go off of even today right today was a massive Bowl day in the market what do Commodities do down all of them like all the ones that matter all considerably down inflation issue an interest rate issue has been a function of massive Supply shocks to the system and I noticed that even uh Janet Yellen uh this week said that she believes that inflation is probably going to surprise on the low side and stay there it might even become a problem Larry Summers same thing he's saying wait a minute the the economy is much weaker than I thought so I think we're close to the end so you think Jay Powell was going to like and you in terms of the language Jay Palma use later today you think it's going to be a little softer rather than sort of a hawkish tone you know I I have no idea this interview was before uh Jerome Powell spoke just if everybody's uh confused about that I don't know I've been surprised at how unanimously uh this fed board has voted given how weak its own Federal Reserve Bank from 16 hours ago and Jay Powell spoke about uh he spoke about 14 hours ago or so 12 to 14 hours ago strix are according to their own reports so I don't know um uh I do know that the market is leading the fed and I also know that Innovation solves problems and we have a lot of problems now including the FED being so tight and activity uh becoming so weak in so many areas so you know we put out Big Ideas uh last night uh these are our big Ideas 2023 very excited uh and the first one you see there is artificial intelligence which of course uh chat gbt has finally caught the Public's imagination we've been working on artificial intelligence for a long time now and I I think some of the things we're seeing are are just the beginning of um of the impact that artificial intelligence is going to have on every sector every industry every company you know I spoke about this earlier today in regards to meta earnings I think meta is the most underrated in terms of if you want a direct play on artificial intelligence I think it's a it has huge potential to be quite Frank meta's been investing tens of billions of dollars into things in relation artificial intelligence intelligence for quite some time it's not like it's a new investment for them they've been investing in this considerably for years now and so I think that's definitely in their continuing to invest when I say they're investing billions billions they're continuing to invest in that so you know what meta does there is I think going to be tremendous as well so I just think they're one that you might not see is directly an AI play but I actually believe that they could be one of the the companies that makes the most money like who's going to actually make the most money from artificial intelligence I think meta could be one of the companies that makes it most Let's Hear What Jeffrey has to say here free gunlock Jeffrey welcome back what a day to have you you know you said you tweeted going into all this today quote I suspect fed messaging will push back against the pivot narrative and thereby current bond market pricing should be interesting he didn't really do that did he didn't really talk I don't think he even mentioned the word pivot frankly uh he obviously talked about ongoing rate hikes but there was just something about his demeanor uh at the after he read the statement it just seems like Keith it has confidence I guess what I'd say and he feels comfortable in where he's gotten to and I think that everybody kind of sensed that and he obviously did not fight back against market pricing he almost uh waved his hand about the disconnect somebody asked him a question about the disconnect between treasure yields and the Dot Plot from last meeting and he just sort of said well Bob Market you know has its own ideas and uh it's pretty interesting so I thought that his demure was really the key thing remember back in August Jacksonville I think it was in September September he comes out like Apollo Creed predicting pain for the economy and you know lots of lots of unpleasant outcome as a consequence of the need to catch up on raising rates and I didn't hear the word pain at all today I I think one of the reasons that he's confident is he knows as everybody should know that the and we've talked about this in past beating appearances judge that the CPI the headline CPI is coming down and it's came down from 9.1 to 6.5 what a lot of people don't know over the last six months the headline CPI has only gone up by 16 basis points per month on average and if we just postulate that maybe that Trend continues and we get 16 basis points for the next uh six months the June number that will be printed in July would come out at around two and a half on Headline CPI and if we come out uh if we come in more at about 30 or 35 basis points we'd be down at three for uh the headline CPI so I think he's got a little you know he's keeping it under a bushel but he knows that the CPI is coming down and he's using the word disinflation the real a question mark is going to be when will the market start worrying about inflation in the second half of this year because it's quite possible that the inflation rate does go back up towards four percent in the second half we just have such great base effects rolling off and he's confident of that he knows it's going to happen we're not really going to get a bad inflation surprise before the next fed meeting and so he was he was feeling feeling pretty relaxed and the markets like that okay something very very important I need to point out here okay first off I don't want to make an argument back to his worries about inflation second half of the year I feel like I already made that argument like a few minutes ago of rewind the video if you need to watch that again okay in terms of all the things that we have going for us in terms of the worries about inflation that might just not be there right but something super important I talked to you guys in the main channel in my fed video today and what do they say I said you know the one one percent of the one percent these folks are watching everything about J Powell they're they're reading through his code language because he's going to talk in code at some points and they're going to look at everything in detail and what did Jeffrey Dunlap just talk about right which I definitely probably put him in the one percent of the one percent uh category Ram he's talking about how he was viewing him physically actually right uh his confidence levels and the way he was talking his demeanor everything right this is what these folks are looking at and I gotta say I saw the same thing that Jeffrey gunlock saw I saw a very confident Jerome Powell for the first time in quite some time today a man that looked like you know we're starting to actually win this game he you know in the kind of Jackson Hole time he looked like a very defeated man he looked like a man that was losing the game bad and he was very very scared today he definitely looked a very confident man and a man that was sure about kind of where things are going and what's happening here he even started bringing up soft Landing again and those sorts of things right and so this is a man that's looking at the economy and he's like okay we we're starting to see weakness and uh employment sector but it's not a disaster we're seeing some weakness from company earnings but it's not really disaster overall right s p earnings look decent as of right now and meanwhile we got inflation coming down more and more and more and if you look at real-time inflation data right now we're looking at something in the fives from what I see from trueflation for example right and so I think ultimately at the end of the day that means the most confident he's been in a considerable amount of time probably in in maybe a year nine months to a year is the last time you know you really get to see Jerome Powell this confident and so you know this is what I talk about people or or in you know the one percent of one percent they see everything they watch everything man they're gonna they're gonna listen to every single word they're going to decipher those words is figure out what they actually mean speaking code and uh watch everything including physical appearance and the way folks talk are you surprised are you surprised because you know the people that I've spoken with to this point you know really are hanging on this idea of this this pushback against the financial conditions loosening right the markets rallied there's a lot of the high beta frothy stuff that that's rallied he could have he could have he didn't he did that's right and it's pretty interesting because you know last a year was so challenging and we talked about in September that bond yields were going to peak in the fourth quarter and that markets were going to reverse in the first part of this year and I expected risk assets to do well uh during January and of course of course they have it's it's odd how uh people don't really always factor in blows in the way they think about uh the Turning of the Year Lester was so bad that we had tax laws selling all over the place and so there was no liquidity to buy anything and so the market was having a really hard time and now people are buying things back and now you're looking at your statement and you've got big numbers you have the s p up eight percent we've got the long Bond the treasury is up nine percent you know we've got Emerging Market Equity up 11 so unfortunately I think that we've gotten a lot of return already um for the first part of this year and as we move forward a couple of months I think we're going to start getting overvalued because I think this inflation narrative that is so supportive of markets where we're almost I mean I almost thought that Jay Paul was going to use the word gold Goldilocks at one point he seems he seemed so comfortable with where he was uh so uh weird how he uh at the same time had his Aura of relaxation and yet he did still talk tough job's not done job's not done we have to raise rates more we're not going to stop We Can't Stop too early but for some reason the the mood sort of trumped and that rhetoric just didn't seem to have the teeth or the intensity that he had uh last fall and I think because the market was we need to see that yeah 100 and sometimes I think some of these Wall Street folks I don't know what they wanted Jerome Powell to do today did they want him to lie did they want to say we're gonna we're gonna raise rates like crazy you just wait the economy is going to be devastated you're all screwed like what do they want him to do like seriously what did they want him to do the man basically said a hundred times with the the job's not finished we're going to remain data dependent you know he talked about even future rate increases like what did they want this man to do lately sometimes I listen to these guys and I you know I'm like you know and Jeffrey gunlock I think was was pretty good as being kind of even Keel there but a lot of these folks talk like they wanted him to just come out and smash this Market wreck everything lie what for should he just start making his speeches based upon what the stock market thinks I don't think that's good the the FED has two jobs two jobs it's to have maximum employment okay and it's to keep inflation in check and that is our two main jobs that's our two jobs okay and so their job is not to tell the stock market go up go down we want you to do this no okay so you know for for them to want them to do all this other stuff it's like you know that just would would give even a more of a negative narrative about the fed and they're trying to do things to help or hurt the stock market which isn't good okay so that's my opinion of that I appreciate everybody joining me for today's video 22 800 plus subscribers now at this point in time you're looking to apply to join my private stock group the private wealth group check out the pinned comment down there and see in there much love and have a great day
Comments 0