저자: KathyWood/JeffreyGundlach대담중KathyWood발언기준—소속정보는제목·설명란에없어채널진행자제외후KathyWood로추정 · 외국인
요약 보기
채널 진행자가 ARK Invest CIO Kathy Wood와 DoubleLine의 Jeffrey Gundlach 발언 클립을 리액션하는 영상이다. 제목·설명란에 출연자 정보가 없어 자막 내 소개를 근거로 식별했다. [Kathy Wood 시장 진단] 2022년은 인플레이션·금리 충격으로 장기 듀레이션 자산이 크게 타격받은 해였고, 채권시장은 1700년대 이후 최악의 해를 기록했다고 언급했다. 인플레이션 완화 근거로 운송비 하락(최근 6~9개월 크게 하락), 원자재 슈퍼사이클 재현 가능성 낮음(1~2%), 전년 대비 비교 기저 효과, 주택 가격·임대료 둔화를 들었다. 10년물 국채금리는 약 3.5% 수준으로, 채권시장이 연준 긴축 종료와 인플레이션의 하방 서프라이즈를 반영하고 있다고 해석했다. 원자재는 당일 대부분 하락했고, 옐런·서머스도 인플레이션이 하회할 것이라는 취지로 언급했다고 소개했다. [Kathy Wood 투자 아이디어] 2023년 빅 아이디어로 인공지능(AI)을 첫손에 꼽았다. 메타는 AI에 수십억 달러를 투자 중이며 직접적 AI 수혜주로 과소평가되어 있다고 평가했다. [Gundlach 발언 소개] 파월 발언이 피벗(금리 인하 전환) 기대를 밀어내지 못했고 시장 금리 가격 반영에 저항하지 않았다고 해석했다. 헤드라인 CPI는 6개월간 월평균 16bp 상승에 그쳐 2023년 중반 약 2.5~3%까지 내려갈 수 있다고 봤다. 다만 하반기에는 기저효과 소멸로 인플레이션이 4% 부근으로 재상승할 가능성도 언급했다. [진행자 의견] 파월이 과거보다 자신감 있어 보였다는 점을 강조했고, 연준의 역할은 시장 방향 조절이 아니라 고용 극대화와 물가 안정이라고 주장했다. [주의] 해당 대화는 파월 연설 이전에 녹화되었다는 설명이 자막에 있다. 진행자는 자신의 유료 리딩방 가입을 홍보했다.
다듬은 글
Kathy Wood 최근 발언을 리액션하는 영상입니다. 오늘은 이 3분짜리 클립을 보고 제 의견을 말씀드리고, Kathy Wood가 무슨 말을 하는지 들어보려고 합니다. 2022년은 성장주에 투자했던 분들에게 정말 힘든 해였죠. 아주 잔인했습니다. 그래서 그 시장에 대한 그의 관점이 궁금합니다. ARKK는 최근 반등을 시작했고, 성장주 전반도 함께 올라오고 있습니다. 그의 의견과 관점도 들어보겠습니다. 그리고 Jeffrey Gundlach가 Jay Powell이 오늘 한 말과 연준에 대해 어떻게 보는지도 들어볼 생각입니다. 이것도 기대됩니다. 앞서 배경으로 틀어두긴 했는데, 그때 바빠서 집중해서 듣지는 못했습니다.
구독해 주시는 모든 분께 감사드립니다. 지금 구독자가 2만 2,800명을 넘었습니다. 이 채널에서 이런 영상을 계속 만드는 게 즐겁고, 여러분이 봐주셔서 고맙습니다.
제 비공개 주식 그룹인 프라이빗 웰스 그룹에 지원하고 싶으시다면, 고정 댓글에 지원서 링크가 있습니다. 포트폴리오가 최소 1만 5,000달러 이상이거나 투자 금액이 상당하고 투자를 진지하게 하시는 분들에게 맞는 곳입니다. 금액이 작으신 분들은 설명란에 링크된 패트레온을 확인해 주세요. 거기서 제가 매수하는 종목과, 매주 150달러로 패트레온 포트폴리오를 어떻게 만들었는지 전부 보실 수 있습니다.
자, 본론으로 들어가겠습니다. ARK Invest CEO이자 CIO인 Kathy Wood를 모셨습니다. Kathy, 만나서 반갑습니다. 정말 굉장한 한 달, 굉장한 2년, 솔직히 굉장한 5년이었습니다. 지금까지 이런 이야기를 나눠 왔지만, 올해에 대한 새로운 아이디어도 있으실 텐데 그중 최고의 아이디어들을 나중에 듣기 전에, 먼저 시장을 바라보는 큰 맥락이 궁금합니다. 1월 흐름과 연준 상황도 포함해서, 지난 몇 년 동안 본인 성과를 어떻게 보고 계신지 듣고 싶습니다.
네, 저희가 겪은 건 아주 큰 인플레이션과 금리 공포였습니다. 그것이 장기 듀레이션 자산을 아주 세게 때렸죠. 장기 채권까지 포함해서요.
제가 ARK를 계속 추적하진 않습니다. 트레이딩뷰에 관심 목록을 만들어 뒀긴 한데, 자주 들여다보지는 않아요. ARK가 30 아래, 그러니까 30까지 내려갔는지는 전혀 몰랐습니다. 35, 36 정도였던 기억이 나는데, 그때도 ARK 입장에서는 엄청난 저점이었죠. 그런데 30 밑으로 내려갔을 줄은 몰랐습니다. 대체 무슨 일이죠? 1년 차트를 한번 띄워 보겠습니다. 아이고, 12월에 30 아래로 내려갔네요. 와, 그렇게 나빴을 줄은 몰랐어요. 저는 35, 36, 아니면 34쯤이 바닥이라고 생각했는데, 30 밑으로 내려갔다는 건 몰랐습니다.
that's insane man, this year the worst performance in the bond market since the 1700s. That's how bad this was. What did she say the 1700s were? If she did say that, that's only something Cathie Wood would say. Hey, what duration assets... incredibly hard, including long-term bonds. Last year the worst performance in the bond market since the 1700s, that's how bad this was. Of course only Cathie Wood would bring up some stat like that. The worst performance since the 1700s, how's that even possible? That's just crazy. It really hurt our strategies. But we do believe, and we've been saying for some time, that inflation is unwinding. We think the market is leading the Fed, the bond market. I think we're down to 3.5% today on the 10-year Treasury yield. The bond market is basically saying the Fed is close to the end of this tightening move, and is also saying that inflation will surprise on the low side of expectations.
When we look back at the past two years, we have a few things going for us in regards to inflation. I know there are still worries about another spike up in inflation, or what if CPI starts going up again. We have a lot of things going for us now. Transportation costs have come down immensely over the last six to nine months. I'm not talking about anything in transport in general; if you're shipping something overseas, or trucking something, almost everything transportation-wise is considerably cheaper than it was six or nine months ago. That's something working for us.
The next thing working for us is commodities. They went through an insane super cycle, like we've never seen for such a long time, and that ran back in the spring and summer. The likelihood of another commodity super cycle like that, I'd call it maybe a 1 to 2% probability. It's a possibility, but a very small one, so that's likely not happening. Third, we're going to comp these ridiculous numbers year over year. Commodities and everything were in this insane bull cycle, and as we tick through 2023, especially again in the spring and summer, we have to comp those numbers year over year. Oh boy. On top of that, housing has come down considerably in terms of the rate of increase, and rents are moderating. I wouldn't be surprised if some markets in 2023 actually see rents go down at some points, not all of them but some.
So you don't have a lot to really go off of. There's a huge worry about inflation, but you just don't have a lot to go off of, even today. Today was a massive down day in the market. What did commodities do? Down, all of them, all the ones that matter, considerably down. The inflation and interest rate issue has been a function of massive supply shocks to the system. I noticed even Janet Yellen said this week that she believes inflation is probably going to surprise on the low side and stay there, and it might even become a problem. Larry Summers is saying the same thing: wait a minute, the economy is much weaker than I thought. So I think we're close to the end.
So you think Jay Powell is going to, in terms of the language he uses later today, be a little softer rather than a hawkish tone? I have no idea. This interview was before Jerome Powell spoke, just in case anyone is confused about that. I've been surprised at how unanimously this Fed board has voted, given how weak the economy is by its own Federal Reserve Bank reports from 16 hours ago. Jay Powell spoke about 12 to 14 hours ago, according to their own reports, so I don't know. I do know that the market is leading the Fed, and I also know that innovation solves problems. We have a lot of problems now, including the Fed being so tight and activity becoming so weak in so many areas.
Last night we put out our big ideas for 2023. I'm very excited. The first one you see there is artificial intelligence, which of course ChatGPT has finally caught the public's imagination. We've been working on artificial intelligence for a long time now, and I think some of the things we're seeing are just the beginning of the impact AI is going to have on every sector, every industry, every company. I spoke about this earlier today in regards to Meta's earnings. I think Meta is the most underrated if you want a direct play on artificial intelligence. It has huge potential. Meta has been investing tens of billions of dollars into things related to AI for quite some time. It's not a new investment for them; they've been investing considerably for years now, and I think they'll keep investing. When I say billions, they're continuing to invest in that. So what Meta does there, I think, is going to be tremendous as well. You might not see it as a direct AI play, but I actually believe they could be one of the companies that makes the most money from artificial intelligence.
Let's hear what Jeffrey has to say here. Free Gunlock, Jeffrey, welcome back. What a day to have you. You tweeted going into today, quote, "I suspect Fed messaging will push back against the pivot narrative, and thereby current bond market pricing should be interesting." He didn't really do that, did he? He didn't really talk about it. I don't think he even mentioned the word pivot, frankly. He obviously talked about ongoing rate hikes, but there was something about his demeanor after he read the statement. It seems like he has confidence, I guess is what I'd say. He feels comfortable with where he's gotten to, and I think everybody sensed that. He obviously did not fight back against market pricing. He almost waved his hand about the disconnect. Somebody asked him a question about the disconnect between Treasury yields and the dot plot from the last meeting, and he just sort of said, well, the bond market has its own ideas. It's pretty interesting, so I thought his demeanor was really the key thing.
Remember back in August at Jackson Hole, I think it was, and then in September, he came out like Apollo Creed predicting pain for the economy, lots of unpleasant outcomes as a consequence of the need to catch up on raising rates. I didn't hear the word pain at all today. I think one reason he's confident is that he knows, as everybody should know, and we've talked about this in past appearances, that the headline CPI is coming down, from 9.1% to 6.5%. What a lot of people don't know is that over the last six months, the headline CPI has only gone up by 16 basis points per month on average. If we postulate that this trend continues and we get 16 basis points for the next six months, the June number printed in July would come out around 2.5% on headline CPI. If we come in at about 30 or 35 basis points, we'd be down to 3% for headline CPI. So he's keeping it under a bushel, but he knows CPI is coming down, and he's using the word disinflation.
The real question mark is when the market will start worrying about inflation in the second half of this year. It's quite possible the inflation rate goes back up toward 4% in the second half, because we have such great base effects rolling off, and he's confident of that. He knows it's going to happen. We're not really going to get a bad inflation surprise before the next Fed meeting, so he was feeling pretty relaxed, and the markets like that.
Something very important I need to point out here. First, I don't want to make an argument back to his worries about inflation in the second half of the year. I feel like I already made that argument a few minutes ago. Rewind the video if you need to watch it again. In terms of all the things we have going for us regarding inflation worries, those might just not be there. But something super important: I talked to you guys in the main channel in my Fed video today. What did I say? I said the one percent of the one percent are watching everything about Powell. They're reading his coded language, because he's going to talk in code at some points, and they're going to look at everything in detail. What did Jeffrey Gunlock just talk about? I'd definitely put him in the one percent of the one percent category. He's talking about how he viewed Powell physically, his confidence levels, the way he talked, his demeanor, everything. This is what these folks are looking at. I saw the same thing Jeffrey Gunlock saw. I saw a very confident Jerome Powell for the first time in quite some time today, a man who looked like we're starting to actually win this game. In the Jackson Hole time, he looked like a very defeated man, a man losing the game badly, very scared. Today he looked like a very confident man who was sure about where things are going. He even started bringing up soft landing again. This is a man looking at the economy who says, okay, we're starting to see weakness in the employment sector, and we're seeing some weakness from company earnings, but it's not a disaster. S&P earnings look decent right now, and meanwhile inflation keeps coming down. Real-time inflation data right now, from what I see from trueflation for example, is in the 5s. So ultimately, that means he's the most confident he's been in a considerable amount of time, probably the last nine months to a year. That's the last time you really got to see Jerome Powell this confident. That's what I talk about: the one percent of the one percent see everything, watch everything, listen to every single word, decipher what those words actually mean, speak code, and watch everything including physical appearance and the way people talk.
Are you surprised? Because the people I've spoken with to this point are really hanging on this idea of pushback against loosening financial conditions. The markets rallied, and a lot of the high-beta frothy stuff has rallied. He could have pushed back, and he didn't. That's right, and it's pretty interesting, because last year was so challenging. We talked in September about how bond yields were going to peak in the fourth quarter and markets were going to reverse in the first part of this year, and I expected risk assets to do well in January. Of course they have. It's odd how people don't always factor in the way they think about the turn of the year. Last year was so bad that tax-loss selling happened all over the place, so there was no liquidity to buy anything, and the market had a really hard time. Now people are buying things back, and you're looking at big numbers. The S&P is up 8%, the long bond is up 9%, and emerging market equity is up 11%. Unfortunately, I think we've already gotten a lot of return for the first part of this year, and as we move forward a couple of months, I think we're going to start getting overvalued, because this inflation narrative is so supportive of markets. I almost thought Powell was going to use the word "Goldilocks" at one point. He seemed so comfortable with where he was. It was weird that he had this aura of relaxation, and yet he still talked tough: the job's not done, we have to raise rates more, we're not going to stop too early. But for some reason the mood trumped, and the rhetoric didn't seem to have the teeth or intensity he had last fall. I think the market needed to see that.
Some of these Wall Street folks, I don't know what they wanted Jerome Powell to do today. Did they want him to lie? Did they want him to say we're going to raise rates like crazy, just wait, the economy is going to be devastated, you're all screwed? What do they want him to do, seriously? The man basically said a hundred times that the job's not finished, we're going to remain data dependent. He even talked about future rate increases. Lately, when I listen to these guys, I think, you know, Jeffrey Gunlock was pretty good at staying even-keeled, but a lot of these folks talk like they wanted him to come out and smash the market, wreck everything, lie. For what? Should he just start making speeches based on what the stock market thinks? I don't think that's good. The Fed has two jobs: maximum employment and keeping inflation in check. Those are our two main jobs. Their job is not to tell the stock market to go up or go down. For them to want the Fed to do all this other stuff would just give an even more negative narrative about the Fed, when they're trying to do things to help or hurt the stock market, which isn't good. So that's my opinion. I appreciate everybody joining me for today's video. We're at 22,800-plus subscribers now. At this point, if you're looking to apply to join my private stock group, the Private Wealth Group, check out the pinned comment down there. See you in there. Much love, and have a great day.
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