저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee의 CNBC 발언 중심 영상으로, 시장은 여전히 강세장이라는 결론입니다. 현재 강세 근거: 2023년 중 인플레이션 하락 경로가 컨센서스보다 낮을 것으로 봤고, 연준의 긴축 종료 가능성과 기업 실적 회복력을 근거로 S&P500 목표를 상향 조정했습니다. 연초 대비 S&P500은 3,900대 전망을 내놓은 Mike Wilson과 달리 4,500 부근을 지지했습니다. 시장 심리: 투자자들은 여전히 비관적이며 조금만 조정이 와도 공매도나 풋옵션, 매도 의사가 많다고 진단했습니다. 월가 전략가들의 평균 목표는 현재 대비 약 8% 하락으로, 시장은 아직 상승 확신을 갖지 못했다고 봤습니다. 경기침체: 1년 내 침체 가능성은 낮다고 판단했습니다. 2022년 GDP 두 분기 마이너스였지만, 주택담보대출금리 하락 등 완화 요인이 있어 침체가 얕거나 피할 수 있다고 봤습니다. 침체가 오면 강세 판단을 철회하겠다고 밝혔습니다. 대형주: 상위 우량 기업들이 시장을 이끌며 2008년 금융위기 이후 오히려 더 강해진 사례를 들어, 우량주에 반대 베팅하기는 어렵다고 했습니다. 비트코인: 자산 자체의 가치는 인정하며, 사기성 거래소(FTX 등)의 문제와 자산 자체는 구분해야 한다고 했습니다. 주의: 자막 자동인식 오류로 일부 수치 및 발언이 부정확할 수 있습니다. 발언 기준 예측 및 근거 정리는 아래 calls에 담았습니다.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee is on CNBC once again here today folks okay we know we're still in the bull market when we see Tom Lee on CNBC uh every single week at this point in time sometimes several times a week he shares his thoughts on many various things here stocks where he sees the market going forward recession no recession uh many other various things and so I just want to jump straight into this one I for being here folks also if you want my free stock picking checklist check out the pin comment down there it's absolutely free to get access to that alrighty let's get into this by the way new all-time high subscribers I appreciate y'all being here and you made that call of a hundred points on the s p on a software inflation number and that happened so then last week on Monday we hand you in again to talk about it and you said you're still bullish so Monday I just did the math 11 straight days in the Dow so you were bullish on Monday but you weren't going to say anything about the the week you're smart enough to stop doing that but so you're got credit for another six out of the 11 days you were so it's been six more days after that that the Dow's been up what was what did you see differently than people like Mike Wilson at the beginning of the year that for you to be at 40 where were you at the beginning of 4 500 uh 47.50 47.50 at the beginning of the year Mike Wilson's not saying he's at 3 900.
the bear case for him was 3 000 or 3200 and the guy at Piper Sandler was at 3000 was like a slam dunk for him for where it was going to go what did you see that was different uh from from uh from these gentlemen uh I think the biggest difference was we were looking at the inflation internals and thought the inflation was on a Glide path lower than consensus and even the FED expected so we thought there was a good chance the FED could sort of back off its fight against inflation and that would make it a 1982 moment because it's an inflation War so I think that was probably the central thing and the second is we had a lot more belief in corporate resilience you know I think companies last year were given notice to prepare for this massive hiking cycle they were they ran expenses really tight and delivered earnings this year have been much better so I think the combination would support stocks so what Tom Lee just described there it's very important that everybody watching this video right now you remember that for your rest of your life when it comes to the investing game okay in investing in public companies because I think one of the most important things to remember especially when you're talking about grade A type companies even Grade B type companies but certainly like grade A type companies top tier companies right is these companies have the best management teams the best CEOs and many times the best business models ever in the history of mankind right and so to take an opposite stance I believe those companies are going to falter it's a tough proposition it can happen every once in a while but it's very tough because you got to understand you're betting against many of the most talented individuals in the world right in the world at what they do and these folks find a way to make it through and make it out to the other side better and stronger stronger which is amazing part stronger than when they went into that situation and we witnessed that in the great financial crisis many companies emerged out of the great financial crisis in a far Superior position than when they went into that great financial crisis especially tier a type companies in tier B type companies those companies were much stronger in 2010 2011 2012 than they were prior to the great financial crisis which is absolutely kind of insane to think right but um that's what happened and so you know that's that's just one of many various tough things to bet against tier a and tier B type companies which are the company's guess what that drive the stock market they are what Drive the stock market up and down because they are the biggest weights in the market overall just overall Tom just your approach to trying to decide how the how devious the market acts and and you can go all the way back to Jesse Livermore it tries to do things to confound as many people as possible so that not as many people are are right going up or down constantly it tries to do it so if you've got a person that if you were all talking about a recession and we're all talking about lower corporate earnings and the earnings got to come down and we're all talking about these things Non-Stop and people are very very and say we're going down another 20 percent when everybody on the street knows what's happening can't you just say that probably isn't going to happen that it's already in the stock can't if you have that job why doesn't that inform you to that maybe you shouldn't go with the crowd why can't they figure that out ever that that's exactly right you know at our company we talk to our clients constantly and that was also pretty evident every time the market plateaued or wobbled this year our clients are ready to short yeah and to sell and even this week the market wobbled a lot you know a couple days last week and people are ready to short the market so I think we're still in a position exactly described which is people are bearish and ready to sell no one's really embracing this as an upward new bull market you know that's that's a great point and if we were to go back to let's say a couple years ago okay let's go back in time 24 months ago what did we have at that moment I'll tell you exactly what we had at that moment we had a market that any sort of dip people were ready to go all in like oh shoot you know this stock went down five percent you know margin out uh you know call options all those sorts of things and now you get stocks to dip you know like Tulsa Netflix last week right five ten percent whatever and also people are ready to sell them they're ready to short them they're ready to buy puts right it's just a very different mentality we're in a much more scared market and it's because of what we went through obviously that you started at the very end of 2021 but certainly obviously what we went through in 2022 and because of that uh emotional damage uh the market just you know is in a place of very scared you know just very scared and just ready to short and ready to buy puts and ready to sell at any reuse it right and I went over that with some stocks recently I think I was talking about you know stocks like discover and some of those uh you know payment providers it just seems like a lot of people are ready to sell those stocks at any any chance they get we looked at you know two or three of them in a video I think it was probably on the main channel uh a few days ago and it just seemed like they're so quick to to to sell and to go ahead and take a profit if they have a profit on that stock which you should have profits on those stocks and so it's just a different mentality we're just in a different market right now and uh we're just working through it and it is what it is a little harp on Mike Wilson bet so he he's finally able he got it you gotta somehow get yourself out of that pickle and say I was wrong but his new with the Maricopa his year-end targets 4 200.
so it's just more of the same right yes that's right you you can tell people are still bearish because the strategist you're in Target on average is the eight percent downside and the strategists reflect the buy side sentiments so most professional investors think the Market's going to go down between now and your end yep 100 these folks are still you know you see sentiment surveys like AEI investor sentiment right recently we came in at I believe it was over 50 percent of investors are bullish on the market in the next six months which is a very high number but then you go ahead and you look at Wall Street these folks have been bearish this entire year and they are still incredibly bearish like you just said look at their their target prices for the market eight percent downside on average for a lot of these folks right that just goes to show you how scared the market still is how uncertain Wall Street really still is Right interesting I could yeah so then have you been wrong uh more more often by being too bullish because that that would be my problem I'm sure uh well I've I've been covering markets for 30 years so I've been wrong a lot on both sides yes uh you know I I learned that being bearish was really painful when I did Wireless my most famous short sell call was Nextel which did it's an important sentence he just said there right been the market 30 years I've been wrong a lot what happens is especially with retail investors and a lot of new retail investors is I think you have to be right all the time and as you've been in this game 10 20 30 years I've been doing it for 15 years you're gonna find you're going to be wrong sometimes you're gonna be wrong sometimes several times times you're going to sell stocks for losses right and for some newer retail investors they think that's like defeat and they think like you know you got to pack it up and go home but no that's not the way anything Works in life you're going to have bad days at work you're going to get things wrong right it doesn't matter what profession you're in all that matters is you you're you're you know you do your job very well over time and it's going to stack up to a whole lot of money over time and uh it's all that matters there's no profession where you're perfect the best doctors in the world screw up sometimes the best surgeons in the world screw up sometimes right that's life or death that's a whole different game the best athletes screw up like like this is what you have to go through right and so as he points out there he's been in the market 30 years he's been wrong a lot and uh I promise you you'll be in the market 30 years making predictions on stocks to Market all these things you're going to be wrong a lot all it matters is you're right a whole lot more than you're wrong and uh you know as long as you do that your money's gonna stack pretty high up for a long time but then finally essentially imploded Sprint so it was a pain that way you're more optimistic now because you got burned by by being bearish at times if you look at the markets over the Long Haul if you're doing this for a long time it goes to 800 800 to 45 000 it's probably going to be long most of the time yeah well you know I discovered Wireless when it was 34 million subs and it went to 7 billion and everybody called it a special bubble sector for for 14 years so I I think I'm just used to people being so negative about the future that we we tilt a little more it's always more fashionable to be negative and and to be you know doomeday in black swans and all these things that you can always do better and you can be short and be right but you can be shaken you've got to have the financial aware Jesse litmore eventually killed himself uh anyway so you're right but you still you're still not going to be able to you maybe not be able to last but long enough to see that you're going to be right so you're never when would you turn bearish uh well I think we would turn bearish if there is a recession because it is really difficult for stocks to actually rise through a recession you don't think there's a recession right uh I mean eventually there'll be one but I think in the time frame people are saying you know six to 12 months it's not difficult in fact yeah and we had two negative quarters of GDP last year so in some ways so basically saying you know next six 12 months uh not very likely of a recession right there I didn't want us to just forget about that they already had an enrolling recession well if we were going to have one so you know now we're back to trying to figure out the uh the discounting mechanism so if a recession isn't coming in six or twelve let's say it's coming in 18 to 24 that still would only give us about six months more of of of bullish uh actually that's true unless of course um the FED starts easing or inflationary pressures disappear because you know there's a lot of potential stimulus coming you know mortgage rates at a 3.7 percent tenure the 30-year mortgage should be five percent or so not seven when that drops that's huge stimulus so that that would make the recession shallow or that would counteract the recession for the market it might even Stave off a recession because consumers aren't leveraged yeah it would actually be a lot stimulus we might not have a recession even in the next two years then that's right and companies batten down the hatches they're not going to get they're going to do better either way correct I'm just thinking how your profession is a lot like seismologists because it's really hard to claim okay here's where the next volcano is going to be you know that's like the Bears who do it and even when they're right like David Johnston was who he's the seismologist who warned that Mount St Helens was going to blow got everybody evacuated but he died in the explosion because he waited to film it and his calculations were come on man what is what these people always want to get on TV okay listen you really want to be on the screen so bad I don't know start doing some Tick Tock videos or post some YouTube videos or something man come on like off and it came out the side instead of going up the top and he died as part of it wow that's like the Livermore story right yeah you can't win Town that's what I'm trying to tell you that's right and then you get all these right calls then you die anyway so I mean it's creepy I mean it's creepy you know what I mean like I don't want somebody looking through my window like that it's creepy come on man really bad but maybe uh so congratulations yeah okay um Bitcoin that got you worried at all here we had a we had an actor on who uh did I mentioned what'd you think of that uh you know I think that there is a populist uh angle to what he was saying if any of them done a deep he said God do you think he understands anything about it I think if if someone did a deep div and went around the world and talked to people who are using Bitcoin because they don't have access to banking they'd have a very different view of how how useful crypto is can I defend the actor for a moment a huge part of his thesis I thought was right which is that there are a lot of things I didn't have a problem with any of that but yeah the FTX and CZ like all of these but Bitcoin doesn't care about who owns it or who's trading it or what exchange it's on bitcoin is that there's a lot of fraudsters right on this and you got to be careful but the asset itself that's like you know that's like uh say first jersey Securities or Stratton Oakmont is a commentary on the underlying stock market that's right and 97 of publicly listed stocks since 1970 have gone to zero so I mean how many wait what publicly listed stocks since 1970 have gone to zero from the underlying stock market that's right and 97 of publicly listed stocks since 1970 have gone to zero so I mean how many 97 sorry 70 but it's yeah 70 of companies listed since 1970 have gone to zero wow that's interesting very interesting 1970 damn that was a long time ago I will say that you can look at a list of stocks that have moved around 56 up 50 up 100 down 60 Bluetooth yeah capitalism just fails often and there's stories it's always what someone's willing to pay on any given day even for a stock especially non-dividend size what are you buying there exactly yeah other than a scoring huh yeah and back in the day a lot more companies try to go public us you know especially obviously in the 90s imagine how many companies when when belly up obviously in 2000 2001 2002 that were public companies but uh because back then there wasn't really as strong of a VC kind of landscape and so I think that was a factor as well so anyways guys appreciate you joining me as always Tom Lee still out here on CNBC very often which means we're still bullish okay uh at some point they're gonna start stop having them as much that's been Marcus tanking okay appreciate y'all joining me as always thanks so much for being subscribed new all-time high subscribers on the History Channel I appreciate y'all also get that free stock picking checklist of mine that's gonna be pinned comment down there you can get access to that I'll go ahead and send it over much love and have a great day
Comments 0