저자: Jeremy Lefebvre Makes Money · 외국인
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Tom Lee is Tom Lee going bearish holy smoke cause that's no joke cause we're gonna find that out today in this video One video in one video only for me to react to this one a dovish Fed pivot next week could see investors moving out of fang stock says Tom Lee so I want to hear what he has to say in regards to this I mean the last time I kind of heard Tom Lee uh with a bearish tone to be honest was after svb went down he definitely sounded very bearish at that given moment uh obviously we know everything turned out fine so this is intriguing I'm looking forward to this one I appreciate everybody joining me as always by the way the Plaid I had to get new tires for the Plaid last week okay how much do you think those costs after tax okay take a guess put it down in the comments section four new tires for the Plaid after tax okay all I'll tell you at the end of this video how much it they actually cost okay I was like what are you kidding me this sounds ridiculous okay all right guys let's get into this with our first guest he's the man the Bears love to hate fun strats it looks like me the Dow closed Higher by like 3.3 points that's that's about the closest I've ever seen it yeah I mean there it is Tom Lee um so let's look ahead to next week because that's when the action gets started again I wonder if it's a pretty key test next week for Market breadth especially I don't know where that thunder came from either that was Thunder or Oppenheimer just happened on the strip I don't know what I think it's Thunder since this week we had a pretty strong start in a relatively weak uh finish earnings from Donna her next week Visa Coke and Boeing Mondelez Thursday are those important uh yeah I mean earnings really matter because one you know there's a lot of concern that you know the reason I'm laughing at that is like he's just named off like a bunch of huge market cap companies and this doesn't matter if they report earnings like in all due respect uh Mr John Fort yes they do matter fed hikes have slowed the economy and you know our company's able to deliver numbers and then keep guidance that's going to matter a lot um but of course as you know there's a huge macro event next week as well yes yes of course that that fed decision something in your notes though I mean made me raise an eyebrow you say we also have to recognize stocks have advanced sharply in the past month so profit taking is healthy Tom you profit taking is healthy here uh yeah I think profit taking is healthy because I think that's going to be a part of the investor mindset you know investors who've been involved with tech and Fang uh are enjoying pretty stupendous returns year to date now it doesn't mean that when they take profits they have to necessarily exit the market but to me next week is a story of well if the FED surprises us uh anyway before he goes further here okay that is a big statement in itself that Tom Lee is uh considering uh you know basically investors should take some profits some profits now let's be clear he's not saying sell out of everything or sell out all your stocks or something like that right but he is saying take some profits so I think that is intriguing point in itself for Tom Lee to say that because they're it's more of a dovish pause um I think investors are going to look for uh ways to sort of find stocks that rise on easing Financial conditions and they may not come back to the Fang they might stick with tech but they might broaden out into Industrials and financials so yes profit taking but doesn't mean the market has to go down and to your point I mean we did see the NASDAQ take a breather today we did see some of those big Tech big or end this week the big cap Tech names uh in General sell off in part because of earnings over the last couple days with Netflix and and Tesla this rotation no no they did not sell off because of earnings okay that is such a bunch of baloney okay they did not sell off because of earnings you could make you could say they sold off because of rotation of money of be maybe because the queues are rebalancing you can make a lot of arguments on why Tech stock sold out but be very clear it was not because of earnings I hear rain that's exciting this is Vegas we get psyched when it rains yeah baby rain okay no the Tesla beat on margins they beat on revenues they beat on EPS no okay Netflix beat by like 3x subscribers I'm I'm excited okay I can't even be in a bad mood right now it is pouring outside that makes me happy oh my gosh I gotta pause the video like I gotta go see this this is amazing we haven't seen rain in years already folks we're doing I'm sorry we're doing the rest of this video with the garage open okay the rest of this video with the garage open that smell that rain smell man we never smell that here in Vegas man give us the rain downpour on us oh Lordy we need it one of the other questions that's getting raised right now is if we're overbought and we're due for a pullback or even a correction your thoughts uh I mean the Market's definitely overbought um you know we're 13 above the 200-day moving average in the past that's a sign of a strong Market but it is also a market that's vulnerable to to bad news so I I'm kind of sympathetic to the view that there are signs of a correction that's what Mark Miller Mark Newton our technician wants us to be alert to but on the flip side I think there are too many who are quickly calling this a top and that that puts me to Camp that we might whatever weakness we have may end up proving to be shallow especially given we have a huge fomdc fomc decision next week uh expectation that we're going to see another rate hike next week and I guess just as importantly before we go into that you know there's just a lot of it there's just a lot of excuses to take profits in the stock market right now like people are still very uncertain of the market they've been uncertain on the market the whole year uh obviously we know what happened in 2022's disaster of a year for the markets right and so I think this entire year people have just been looking for reasons to take profits and they've done it every time they've been wrong by the way every profit you've taken so far this year has been a poor financial decision every single one unless you somehow sold this stock at a top which isn't so realistic right and so that's just been something that's going on but it's just people are looking for reasons any reason any reason to tell me to sell stocks and people who do it right now because that's what they're looking to do that's just you know that's the market we're in right now we have data like PC at the end of the week what does that mean for the disinflation narrative that is playing out in the market and I know you've been speaking to uh well I I do think investors are still skeptical that there's disinflation you know we have many conversations with our Institutional Investor clients and they talk about how inflations can be sticky because the wages and it might stick it four percent for far longer but we're finding the Glide path to core inflation and core pce you know could actually undershoot what a lot of people think over the next few months and so I think that's one of the upside stories that as soon as inflation softens at that pace you know fed officials themselves can actually start to breathe easier and I think it causes many investors to rethink higher for longer so you say a couple hundred points worth of a correction oh it's not really a correction I guess if it's only a couple hundred points in the s p five percent we'd need more than that for it to be technically a correction but you know a pullback of around five percent would be possible do you recommend Ro rotating into um of those other names cyclicals versus the larger Tech names that have done so well this year yes to an extent I think I think it's important to stick with groups that are showing strength uh because we know that those are going to be groups that could end up having dip buyers so that would put Industrials financials uh you know I mean I think one of that thing and energy of course but what makes us a little bit wary is some of the strength this week has been in the defensives and I wonder if that's more of a reflexive action but you know if the defenses keep strengthening it John that would put us you know put the market more likely into a correction uh camp but I don't think we're at that point yet yeah interesting Thoughts by Tom Lee there um you know in order to take profits you just got to be in a really really cash poor position and you need it like like let's say you have no cash literally right now you're all invested okay I could understand sell five percent or ten percent of your stocks to build up a little cash pile just in case the market tanks or something like that right but if you've got some cash around let's say you're 10 20 cash or especially if you're higher number than that there's no reason to take profits right if you really believe in these companies for long term now if you're a short-term Trader in and out of these stocks or you own some stock that you don't believe in long term you change your voice decent whole different ball game but outside of that like you know I'm in no rush to sell any of my stocks Matt is reporting this week you think I want to sell meta whatever it's at 27 296 or whatever it's trading at right now no matter goes down to 270 great I'll buy the flip and Flapjack and dip as I did last year right and that obviously is paying off handsomely if meta goes up huge which I think there's more upside to potentially meta and I spoke about that in my main Channel video here today right if meta goes up a bunch let's say metas goes to 330 340 350 after earnings am I selling no way not even close Okay so uh yeah subscribed folks I believe we're now over 31 000 subscribers on the channel I appreciate y'all being here as always and also if you're looking to apply to join my private group this week and download everything I got up here directly to your brain then check out the pin comment down there that'll be fill out an application we'll be able to chat with you and see if you're a good fit for the private group or not much love and have a great rainy day
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