저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 9월 기준 미국 주택시장 지표(중위 매매가, 거래량, 매물 체류일)를 분석. 5~9월 가격과 거래가 급등했으나 8~9월 들어 거래량 감소와 일부 지역 가격 둔화가 보여 경계 필요 신호로 제시. 구매자에게 지역 데이터 확인, 경쟁 입찰 대응 조건 조정, 투기성 부채 제한을 조언. 주식·가상자산 자산에 대한 가격 예측은 없음.
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hey everyone meet kevin here i have some quick and new insights regarding the housing market and i'm worried that there might be a new trend that could end up hurting the real estate market so let's get into this data and show you exactly some potential cracking that i'm seeing so if you own real estate you're thinking about selling you're thinking about buying you're a tenant and you want to buy some of this might be good information for you even if you're just thinking about when should i get my refinance uh you know what are values going to do so let's keep an eye on this and i'll teach you exactly what to do so some of you might remember that back in march and april i tracked the housing market on an almost weekly basis to determine whether or not we should buy real estate or wait for a crash in fact i reached out to many of you and said hey who's got data from different parts of the country and we put this all on a spreadsheet and kind of compared the difference in trends week by week well in april based on what i was seeing i recommended that it might be buy time because real estate wasn't getting hurt we weren't seeing that damage in real estate in most areas of the country when in fact we were seeing the opposite we were seeing prices go up probably because of interest rates and a lack of inventory right i mean no surprise there and so what i personally did is i started hunting for wedge deals like crazy and i shifted more money from stocks into real estate great but what about now what's this change that we're seeing now well in order to see this let's go ahead and pull up the spreadsheets so just so you know you can also see this spreadsheet in the uh discord chat which is uh there's you can join for free link down below it's metkevin.com discord you can join for free obviously there are course member only sections but you will see there is a link to this spreadsheet in the news section up at the top and just want to quickly shout out chad blank for providing information from hennepin so if anybody's up in hennepin hit up chad claudio from orlando we've got ed for broward palm beach tampa our sir tampa is uh kelly so ed for broward palm beach and miami-dade and then i've been putting this data together for ventura county orange and los angeles so we've kind of got the different coastlines in the middle of the u.s obviously this doesn't represent everything uh but we're trying to get an idea of changes and then i'll show you how we could localize this to wherever it is that you are in the country and what you want to look for so first let's just look in may to september okay so here's what we want to look for anytime we're looking at real estate data first we want to look at the median price not the average price it has to be the median price then we want to look at the number of properties sold relative to last month or the weeks prior and then we want to look at how many days these properties are sitting on the market and so green is is generally a good thing we want to see more properties sold and we want to see purchase prices going up and we want to see days on the market going down those all kind of feed into positive real estate indicators and between may and september all we had was green ventura cow almost all we had was green ventura county went up 18 in prices over that time orange county 6.8 percent la 15 hennepin 4 days of the market went up a little bit though orlando 4 broward county 8 palm beach percent tampa three percent uh and then miami over here at also three point three five percent so a lot of bumps in prices with the number of properties sold between may and september skyrocketing i mean more than doubling in in areas like california here going up 50 20 or you know 30 to 50 percent in parts of florida absolutely large increases of the property selling and prices so this is a good trend right then when we look at march to september we get pretty good numbers as well good growth but not as great as we had uh you know when we just look at may through september and part of that is is really because once covid hit you know in march and april a lot of people in the real estate market well some people were bailing some people are like i just want to sell before this because this is going to be a big crash so you had a lot of people trying to dump and you had a lot of buyers going i don't know i don't know i'm going to wait to see what happens so that explains why when we look at march to september the numbers aren't as good as when we look at may to september but what's the change and what's kind of a little bit of a crack that we're seeing well what we're seeing change here is here in august to september now in fairness september we only have data and this spreadsheet was put together using data from september 1st to september 16th but i extrapolated those 16 days to a 30-day calendar so we kind of know the rate at which properties are selling even still even with that extrapolation of sort of like taking the beginning part of september and applying it to the second half of september the numbers are starting to crack a little bit and this is something to keep an eye on look at this the number of properties sold is pretty much going down and this could be because school has started uh in many areas but i mean look at this some parts of florida over here down in terms of volume sold in september compared to august way way down i mean down 20 to 25 28 here in miami and what's more in addition to less properties actually selling in september comparing to august we actually are starting to have some prices full look at this orange county is down a percent hennepin orlando broward down palm beach ventura la miami some of these areas up slightly so you still got some growth in some areas but it's starting to show you a little bit of softness coming in some markets so how do we apply this to ourselves you know and originally we're thinking okay we're going to see the summer extend into the fall this data doesn't say that so far and so this is where we might want to start paying attention to our specific market and say okay what's our market doing are our prices starting to soften and are the number of properties in our area starting to decline sales wise so here's what you can do for your area go to i'll put this link down below but it's basically redfin's data center and starting around april they finally created this sort of week by week software that you can compare data to in your area and it's not bad it's actually pretty good so here for example this is what it looks like redfin's covet 19 weekly housing metrics i personally recommend that you get rid of all the other lines and you just show 2020 because that's what really matters right now and what we see here at the top line is we see new listings in all areas that redfin tracks we are starting to see that flat lining of new listings up here at the top and sort of possibly is start towards the down and the amount of new listings coming up so pay attention to the new home listings number but then at the same time the most important thing to watch median sales price forget about cost per square foot or anything this is classic this is really what we've seen now redfin's data center isn't the fastest it's usually about a couple weeks behind but so far this is consistent with what we've seen in our chart we've seen a crazy jump in real estate prices from realistically may to september in fact there you could see that dip that i talked about between march and may that's why we saw a little bit of that softness may really saw that big growth and so the way you want to use this is you want to pick an area let's just go ahead and pick an area here let's pick boise city idaho so let's click that in okay great so boise city idaho big big jump in median sales prices here starting in june uh look at that you did not get that bump starting in april or may you actually had it starting in june why is this useful if you're buying a home well it's extremely useful because if you're looking at other sales in your area you got to compare to when that property sold so for example let's say you're buying a three bedroom two bath in a you know neighborhood xyz or whatever and it's 1300 square feet and you're like well here's a 1 300 square foot home that sold for thousand dollars why would i pay six you know a three hundred sixty thousand dollars for it now uh in in september well if you look at this chart here you'll see that if we go from june or may to now we see that bump exactly from 330 to 360.
so you can actually adjust your comps based on these charts here i like keeping it on the four week duration it just keeps everything a little bit more smooth let's do another one here let's go down to how about new haven connecticut let's try that one okay same sort of uptrend here right uh let's see here uh granbury texas what's this one so this is much harder to read this one actually tells us that we don't really have a consistent growth pattern due to covid there's almost no real uh noticeable appreciation here it's just sort of the spiky up and down in fact let's try to flatten this and go to 12 weeks let's see what we've got going on okay there we go that that helps us a little bit that smoothed those lines out a little bit and gave us a little bit more of an idea that we do have a slight uptrend from may we were around 265 but in you know in september we fell a little bit so now we're only at 270.
this will help you scale your analysis when you're looking at buying real estate here let's go back to boise city and see on the 12 week we actually don't see that september downtrend so in boise's case let's go back to the four week look at this we start seeing that downtrend or that flattening happening right let's now go to one week let's see what happens oh interesting look at that volatility there at the end so this is this should really help you know how hot your market is and the more hot your market is the more you can expect to fight against multiple offers so let's see if we can find here los angeles uh yeah pretty hot right so obviously if i'm buying in los angeles even the stuff that was selling in june is way less expensive than the stuff that's selling now look at this in june stuff was selling for about six hundred sixty thousand dollars now it's selling for seven hundred twenty thousand dollars that's like ten percent more in two months uh that's insane that is an insane bump that you've got over here uh let's do uh let's do another area here together let's do seattle okay what's seattle got going on uptrend as well we had a dip there in may you know potentially as we had some covet spikes although remember sales these closings are gonna be about six weeks behind so if this dip was in may uh and we had that that spike in covet cases in seattle maybe late march that would approximately make sense uh in terms of this data so uh yeah same thing here if i'm looking at comps from may or june they're gonna be somewhere around five percent lower than where those sales prices are now uh so this is a really good tool for you to be able to keep track of this i i do think though we've got a little bit of softness and stalling coming here in september and we want to pay attention to that because we don't want to go crazy into these multiple offer bidding wars unless we're comfortable that we're getting a good deal that's something that i teach all the time and i've analyzed hundreds of your deals in just the last few months here uh in in our real estate investing course where we go live every day the markets open at 9 a.m to answer your questions and analyze deals you know one of the things we really have to do is we now have to because this market is so volatile compare what the comps are doing to what the multiple offers are and the competition we're up against so if you're out there right now looking to buy i've got three big tips number one check the data in your area and make sure you adjust the comps to what the data is saying in your area you know obviously the most recent comps are going to give you the most important data and ignore the active listings number two be prepared to if you are trying to buy if you're in let's say that boise city idaho area maybe in a place like that where you don't really have that stalling yet we had a little bit of a flattening but then you had that pick up again maybe in areas like that you've got to stay competitive you got to shorten your contingencies or remove your rights to cancel maybe in other areas where you've got less of that extreme growth you could be a little bit more competitive as a buyer and of course number three limit your speculative debt because any time we start seeing that kind of slow down in that uptrend you know you don't want to be caught kind of like buying right at the peak and a lot of the prices we're seeing right now are relatively high we've got a lot of peak prices in a lot of areas so that's why i always say just limit your speculative debt don't get into the hard money you know 9 10 11 rates where you're paying two points for you know a 12 month term or something like that if you're gonna buy buy something that you're willing to hold for the long term a lot of people trying to flip right now but you get into flipping right now and we start seeing more of kind of a slowdown in the market for whatever reason throughout the winter here because we're not seeing that sort of resurgence of the summer market we are going to go into a normal winter maybe hold back in fact here look at this one this is uh hot springs arizona see hot springs arizona here has a nice decline we just went from median sales prices of about 205 thousand dollars to 160.
i mean that's a decline of 20 percent so somebody who bought the last week of august now compared to the middle of september just burned 20 percent uh so now of course there's a lot of the short-term volatility so if i want to go to four weeks here this is going to smooth it out but you still see that downtrend here you know so these are things to pay attention to you know really because look if you're in hot springs arizona do you want to pay those peak prices right now or do you want to protect yourself and think okay well maybe i want to be paying closer to 185 for that median home rather than going crazy and going over 200 like people were doing last month so you see these these little changes in data very very important uh just for giggles here let's go ahead and put in all metro areas and let's do a one week duration and let's also throw on top here 2019 so let's compare and we'll compare to 2018 as well so uh as you can see usually uh you get a softening when it comes time to august september october when you look at the median sales prices which is the top chart here notice the blue line and the gray line they kind of soften there towards the middle of the year that same expectation could happen to the red line aka 2020 as well so just know that when you're going out there and you're making offers on homes so ake sure to get one free stock with weeble deposit 100 so give you a free stock worth up to 1600 get life insurance in as little as five minutes protect yourself and your family check out the courses and ]
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