저자: Paul · 외국인
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Everything Money 채널은 엔비디아를 8가지 재무 기준으로 분석. PER 90, 이익률 26%, 자산 대비 현금 충분 등 긍정 요소도 있으나 주가가 목표가(150) 대비 과도하게 높다고 평가. 4대1 액면분할은 심리적 효과일 뿐이라 주장. 현재 623달러는 고점 저항선 부근이라 장기 매수는 비추천하고 단기 스윙 관점만 언급.
다듬은 글
hey welcome to everything money we're so glad you joined us today we're talking about nvidia the company and the stock we're gonna look at the financials behind the company this is a gaming they make graphic processors and and we're gonna look at they're in gaming they're in cars the gamers love this company paul and i know nothing about this but here's the point you might know not know anything about this either we use an eight pillar system an eight pillar analysis to look at the financials we want the numbers to drive our interest in this company and if the numbers don't make sense financially i don't care what nvidia does and you shouldn't either uh so where i introduce you to paul and trader mo welcome in boys we're going to talk about this company uh using the everything money software behind you paul go ahead all right so this everything money software is awesome it's we created it for our users it's only 80 cents a day very simple to use nvidia so we just look it up boom all right so this is the chart uh the maximum chart it goes back to 1999 or so it was a dollar seventy four okay so imagine you bought it i mean it's 600 some dollars now incredible okay so um to get started here um no the reason mo why did you recommend the stock for us to do this is in the news lately because they mentioned last week that they're doing a four to one split okay they're doing a four to one split now remember guys this is a lot different than issuing more shares and this is a very common question we get what's the difference when a company issues more shares if you own five shares of the company and they issue a million more shares you still own five shares of the company even though they've increased the number of shares by a million in a stock split four for one if you own five shares when they do a stock split you now own 20 shares so you're not diluted in the first situation you're diluted because let's say there's a million shares outstanding you own five of them if if you oh they put another million out there they've doubled the number of shares out there but you still own five you own half of what you own before yeah it's a lot different situation it's very very different than a stock split this is better now why do they do stock splits i just watched a video paul from october 2020 you and i were discussing this yep and um i was confused too because apple did one at that point in time but they they simply do these stock splits so that normal people like myself and perhaps you watching can say well now instead of paying 600 for nvidia i can pay 150.
that sounds incredible if i have 3 000 to invest i'm going to get 20 shares instead of five and so it's a complete mine screw and that's exactly what's all it is to make people feel like it's a cheaper stock and here on this channel we tell you we're trying to teach you look behind what's on that stock price what's behind it and this is why warren buffett has never split his shares and that's why berkshire hathaway is at 430 000 his reason is i want people who are committed to the long run so if the shares are this expensive i'm not going to get speculators i'm not going to get day traders i'm not going to get market manipulation like that yeah but for most companies they want people to say look at this company's doing so well it used to be 6 30.
now it's 150. this is awesome i get to own more shoes this absolutely works paul i mean normal people i talked to they love this i mean they're excited for it they can't wait till they can buy into some of these companies and remember i told you sophomore year of high school my algebra 2 trig teacher said he wanted to own nike but he couldn't afford it it was too expensive what he meant was his shares were 50 bucks so they were 10 he would have loved it because he's like oh look i'm buying a ton of shares yeah so what does these splits mo what do these splits normally do for does it entice people to buy in what does it do absolutely i mean it's the psychology of it making the stock price quote-unquote more affordable so same thing you guys just said if you can buy something that's six hundred dollars for 150 now it makes everybody i mean maybe perceives it perceives that you can go and afford that stock now that's that's that's really what a lot of these companies are still buys the same exchange it buys the same ratio of everything in the company so don't buy into that hype it's all garbage it's all gibberish but again it allows for momentum yes so let's look at the company sure regardless of the ticker price we want to look at the what's behind this price yeah let's look at so 390 billion dollar market cap this is a very large company from market cap so here's something interesting the pe is 90.
that's an x the profit margin is 26 that's a check processors things like this chips they have very high margins is good now here's the thing seth the initial x of the 89 the 90 i'm wondering to myself okay it could just be very expensive or maybe they had some write-offs in the last year they took advantage of it's a coveteer might as well write things off etc so we'll look at that more in the cash flow statement okay um look at this dividend yield is this accurate point one percent isn't that adorable but look at their return on assets and return on invested capital these are awesome very high numbers oh double digits i love that which means they invest their capital very well to get higher returns okay so we have one x and one check so far about revenue growth over the past five years is pillar number three okay revenue go the past five years six point nine one to 16.68 check mark now big jump here why is there a big jump here my initial reaction is was there an acquisition because that's the thing guys when you look at these numbers you got to look for big jumps to say okay because look at the past look from 2017 before look at these numbers four billion four point three four point one four point seven five six point nine all of a sudden two and a half times larger right yeah that tells me immediately okay this might not be organic growth this might be growth through acquisitions which is not the same as organically growing right so we got to make sure we understand that net income pillar number four is profit growth over the past five years to 4.3 check mark there that's pretty good too yes it is now let's look at the shares outstanding which in some people's mind doesn't matter at all paul you know well that's because this is the most overlooked one 556 to 620.
now i will say if they're making good acquisitions an expensive stock price if their pe actually is 90 i do understand why they're issuing more shares to make acquisitions it's an expensive company i'm looking at their profit to see if there's any major write-offs and let's look there are no special income or charges so they really are selling for 90 times earnings seth crazy yeah i said we're gonna look at the cash flow statement which we will but you can also look at the income statement to the special income and charges to see if they had any big write-offs that might have driven john their profit much more than it should have and there's nothing here i was speaking to an associate of mine he said that buying back shares is not healthy he would rather see a company put that money into growing is that by the way i agree with that however on big big companies that have that it's hard to grow on buy back share that's a good way of giving money back to your investors by giving them more of the company like if it's a if it's an immature a very small company that's growing absolutely spend your cash on other things depend on growth grow yeah but a 300 billion dollar company a 400 billion dollar company one that's going to grow single digits a year in revenue and it's going to be hard how do you give more money back tax efficiently you buy back shares it gives your investors with no tax implications day one more of the company more of the profit and drives the share price up pillar number six is current assets over current liabilities paul um yeah but before we go there sorry go ahead i yeah i won't have a software here this is a very big thing guys we have 42 43 000 subscribers we have almost 3 000 people who who subscribe to our software patreon this is 80 cents per day it gives you everything back here it's going to give you stock analyzer real estate analyzer and more importantly discord chat with 3 000 other people organized very well so it's not overwhelming so you can talk about your investment ideas for 80 cents per day if you're alone in your investment journey out there you might be by yourself i know obviously we have a very male populated crowd we'd love to get more females on board but i i do know that when we talk to a lot of folks a lot of friends paul it's like women who are doing these motherly things that we love like i can't take care of my damn kids my wife is just the best but they i've i've had to talk her into this you know when they're not around it it takes years to understand this so we're getting more women involved but women tend to do better in investing than men you've said that a lot yeah so um so i guess what i mean is if you're alone out there and you feel like you maybe have to defend some of your stock picks to a spouse or significant other get they can get on board with this as well and give you a process so we have this conversation a lot with like friends wives like hey listen you should watch some of these videos and get involved and and they're liking it so yeah um go ahead so this is pill number six currently number six is current assets of 16 billion and we want to see if they have enough money to pay off all their debts current debts their current liabilities are 4 billion guys their total liabilities are 11.9 so they have enough money to pay off all the debt that they have this is extremely extremely good but why paul i don't understand if you had enough money in your personal bank account to pay off your mortgage credit cards car loans everything you have every single imaginable debt you have would you go bank are you more likely or less likely to go bankrupt i think that's the point is this is the the taking into account the downside risk people ask me again normal people why am i involved in some of why do i have stock in some of these companies that no one's ever heard of and my my retort is when the correction occurs these healthy companies are not going to go down as much and they're likely to stay in business yeah if you had all the cash your bank account to pay off every debt you have what are the chances of you going bankrupt very very slim and this is rare by the way to have more cash at all your liabilities i love that that's great so this is a major check free cash flow growth is pillar number seven okay so guys on this trusty software that's only 80 cents per day soon going to dollar fifty we actually added the line under the investing section to give you free cash flow it's cash from operations less capital expenditures and they use this free cash flow to buy back shares pay dividends make acquisitions pay down debt so it's actually the health of the company that i look at in terms of multiple we have 1.5 billion to 4.7 check mark with an average of 3.3 so 3.3 times 20 66 billion and guys this actually makes sense because the company's selling for 90 times earnings so this company is just really really expensive now here's the deal guys so that's 66 that's pretty much the desired market cap you'd like to pay um that's that's the market cap if it's around there i'm doing more due diligence remember guys this is about the the eight pillars doesn't tell you the qualitative parts of the company it just tells you the numbers as a screener from there you take the now for for nvidia i like their numbers except for the price of free cash flow so i'm adding it to my watch list and i'm gonna set a target price of some 100 even though it's a lot even though some 150 because by the time it hits 150 maybe the business has gotten better and it's worth more money so i'm going to just use it remember if you have 120 stocks that you set target prices for every year some of them will hit and you can do more due diligence on them to see if it's a company you want to own now the great thing about our software is it gives you all this right here so the three x's in the company are valuation valuation and hurting value and hurting your um your your investment so this is definitely a pass for me on nvidia what i want to see is a much lower price and stopping the bleeding of shares outstanding if you're if you're scrolling the comments below there's going to be some dumb people saying that wait did paul just say that he wants to pay under a sub 150 for a company that's at 600 that's absolutely true your job is to say no to about 10 000 stocks and yes to 20 or 30.
and we just did a video just recently about the downfall of all a lot of hype other stocks including nicola workhorse lordstown all of which fell at least 75 this year alone so if you don't think it can happen it can surely happen and you'll be ready to buy nvidia when it does happen mo what are people doing in the bid and asked nation in terms of trading this not long term financial play but trading this on maybe a couple week chart so we're approaching we are right at that all-time high this is their all-time high and it's getting right back to that level so it's a struggle for them they're going through a little bit of a sweet spot reversal last time they did a sweet spot reversal though they pulled back down and then they had an excellent run up and actually the bid and asked nation did catch this a lot led by uh one of our patrons gianni he pretty much led the team and rode this thing all the way to the top i think they exited right around here but so if this i remember that by the way guys you're never gonna exit the top and you're never gonna buy at the bottom and it's okay correct when when it was up here they were saying they were wondering because it was making new highs they're like what should we do what should we do i said guys i can't just tell you to exit a position i have no way of knowing that but they trusted right when their trend crossed this is this is where they got a head and shoulders pattern so they had their head here shoulders shoulders and this is the reason that they exited here and subsequently you've seen what happens but that's just learning the patterns and understanding what happened for right now we're getting up to that top range again this is probably something better to go at on a day-to-day chart just because you're clear of all your moving averages all four of them and you can squeeze a little bit out of it if you want to get to the top as far as a long-term play right now i don't think i would recommend it yeah as you're entering that 80 percent stochastic on the bottom there now you're entering this looks like there's not many cookies left and is this a resistance point there in the middle that it's probably not going to blast over right here this is your big resistance point so call it 640 645 something like that right now current stock price is 623.
so the odds of squeezing getting a good candlestick going up like so and then just you're going to run right into that so quickly that's going to be your issue avoid at the moment avoid at the moment unless you want to do it on a day try a day trading chart or a day-to-day chart which is a swing trade that's where you can go and capitalize on this paul on final take on video you're waiting now guys we talked about acquisitions and why the revenues grow if you look at their cash flow statement there isn't acquisitions and dispositions section they made an eight and a half billion dollar acquisition last year but in the previous years there was nothing i have a hard time believing that but they had that massive growth now nvidia did have a very very if you look at their stock price in 2016 it was 45 wow so it is very likely they just naturally grew their graphics cards and all that stuff and it's skyrocketed right so impressive stuff this is part of the whole guys look at what we've done here we've done more than 99.9 investors going to do sure and we still we're sitting here saying now go determine if you want to own this company do they have the qualitative aspects that you'd want when they hit the price that you want yeah if you want to do something funny if you have a financial plan or a financial advisor give them a call and ask them to give them their thoughts on nvidia i'd be i i'd be here to see what they say about this company because it's trending upwards and typically for a lot of other people that's a buy point but again we want to buy low and sell high not sell at its peak that's our take on nvidia great company uh stay tuned i'm sure we'll do more more videos about this our our target points may change if new information comes out if you're watching this in the future but uh yeah that's our take join the patreon the links in description below and you can join our community to learn about this you can day trade with mo and um and all of your wildest dreams will come true right paul yes tickle a thumbs up on the way out love you guys thanks bye
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