저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 2020년 5월 금융안정보고서를 소개하며 자산가격 변동성 재확대, 상업용 부동산 가격 하락 위험, 가계부채 연체 증가 가능성을 강조. 본인은 SPG(사이먼 프로퍼티 그룹) 리츠를 저평가로 보고 소량 매수했다고 밝힘. 주택가격은 평균 근처이며 모기지 리스크는 2000년대보다 낮다고 해석.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Kevin here it is May 15th and the Federal Reserve just within like the last hour I mean hot off the press here release this financial stability report and some of the things in it I actually said he regretted and highlighted the good stuff so I'm just gonna give you the bottom lines some of the things in this here report see it says financial stability report are not that good in fact honestly they should have hired me to proofread this because I could have fixed that there we go all right now it's better so I'm gonna go through this page by page and we're gonna get to the bottom line of what's going on in terms of what the Fed thinks is happening there are four methods that the Fed uses to kind of evaluate what's going on so what I'm about to read you are the four methods so here you go the first thing they look for is something they call valuation pressures basically the more pressure there is on prices the more likely they are to fall right so they're trying to figure out alright how much pressure is in the pressure cooker how likely is the balloon to pop the bubble to burst okay then they look for excessive borrowing by businesses and households and then they look for leverage within the banking sector basically and then they look at funding risks like credit markets and things like that a lot of this stuff is so hard and boring to read I tell you I did not get to level 99 coffee drinker by reading goosebumps okay although I much preferred reading goosebumps okay let's move on to some of the actual findings right here because right now this is just kind of what they're looking for them well here we get to their first finding their first finding on asset valuations and then we'll go into detail on each of these because this year just so you know is the overview so let's hit the overview and then we'll go in deep but let's just read the highlighted stuff because that's the juicy stuff okay asset valuations asset prices have been volatile around many markets in fact if you google something called VIX VIX is a volatility index it tells you how many people are all of a sudden buying and selling relative to a different day and as you can see right here if we kind of zoom in you get this insane Dean volatility right around March 16th you get this peak volatility and the bottom of our last market crash here in March was actually March 23rd right here so you kind of almost see it happen like a ton of volatility right before prices go down substantially and so it's a really interesting chart to follow and in fact if I max out over here you could see the last time we had a really fat peak was over here last peak was over there on October 24th 2008 for this volatility index so this is something really interesting to keep in mind when you're looking at stocks or investments or whatever but the fat also looks at this and so they've been tracking this volatility problem and they noticed obviously lows in late March and early April our second bottom was April 3rd in case you're wondering March 23rd April 3rd for most companies that's where you'll see the bottom risky and and this is what they're finding now risky asset prices have risen and spreads have narrowed in key markets basically the crappy stuff that is not so high quality is getting expensive really fast usually when they talk about spreads what they mean is the spread between risky and safe things think about it like this if the US government borrowed $100 from you that is you gave the US government $100 and you're like oh I hope they pay me back the odds are they're gonna pay you back right so you're not gonna charge them as much interest let's say you're gonna charge the US government I don't know 1% interest well let's now say you know Venezuela comes up to you and says hey Kevin can I borrow $100 from you you're like yeah I'll lend you a hundred bucks but for you I'm gonna have to charge you 9% interest cuz I just don't trust your currency as much this is nothing against people this is about money it just has to do with money well that spread is the difference right you're charging the US government 1% in charge of Venezuela 9 percent that spread is pretty big it's 8 percent well when the Fed says that spread narrows that means people are more willing to jump into risky assets like oh yeah yeah and as well I'll give you a 9% hey you know what I'll do it for 8% hey you know what I'll do it for 6% and and that's sort of when get these spreads converging which is kind of a sign that people are becoming more comfortable with risk again and that's what the Fed is starting to notice but let's see what they have to say about that what they have to say for themselves well let's pull that sheet right back up and we'll see here that they said asset prices aka stocks and real estate remain vulnerable to significant price declines should the pandemic take an unexpected course in other words because prices have already gone up and people have already started getting into risky things again the economic fallout could prove more adverse or financial system strains could re-emerge yikes I mean that's pretty blunt for the Fed to say that and remember this is current they just released this today the afternoon well of course after the stock market closed they released it on May 15 so it's like that's not exciting okay especially since I've literally been plowing money into stops and into real estate okay maybe I'm the loser they're trying to talk to at least I'm reading their report does that mean I'm gonna sell probably not but let's keep reading now in terms of debt they say that businesses had high debt relative to GDP gross domestic product before this crisis but households didn't have that much debt they didn't have as much debt as businesses but the problem that households face is the fact that now people are losing their jobs it's probably going to be harder for some people to actually repay their obligations so that's another risk factor because what happens when people can't pay their loans well the financial sector aka banking gets screwed now they do say to date banks have been able to meet surging demand for draws on credit lines remember I always advocate having credit lines and in a crisis you pull those credit lines so that the banks don't freeze them you don't want your credit lines frozen that's how you start building wealth okay we talked about it in the money course a lot talked about it in the real estate investing course link below coupon down there for you as well ok back to this the Fed also says that banks have been able to build loan loss reserves to be able to absorb higher defaults this is really good and that is what they're say here is banks are kind of doing something called like kitchen sinking where they kind of start throwing in a bunch of losses into their expectations for the future in fact what I'm gonna show you here is a chase earnings report it's their current report over here and it just kind of gives you an example of what they're looking at see they write things like this into their earnings report they say the provision for credit losses was eight point three billion up six point eight billion for the prior year driven by the deterioration in the markets and this is just for the JP Morgan section they have a bunch of other a losses indicated in other sections as well like commercial banking they have more losses indicated and so basically banks are trying to prepare and get ready for big losses in the credit market markets coming and the Fed saying like we see that happening that's good but depending on how many people actually don't get their jobs back it could end up becoming bad they do say that so far the funding risk has proven less fragile than during the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis that is in 2007 2009 banks are like ah not lending at all anymore we're done no during this pandemic they're kind of like okay we're just gonna lend to people with like 650 credit score's instead of 620 credit score's they're like a modest tightening it's kind of like they they went and didn't like untie their shoe to retie it they just kind of like pulled it a little tighter so overall the scariest thing here is actually probably the thing that affects us the most notice like in the financial sector they're not that worried in the funding sector they're not that worried and then really say anything about business debt instead they what the Fed is worried about is the consumer our ability to repay our obligations Plus over here asset valuations that if this basically pandemic goes the wrong way or goes in an unexpected course the economic fallout could prove more adverse yeats okay you're ready for the detail on asset prices like estate and stocks now let's get into some more of the detail right here here we go okay an improvement in the asset markets as since their troughs reflects expectations for a rebound and market activity okay aka everything hit the fan so to speak and now we're like okay okay we're willing to take on risk we're willing to get back in all right well what's gonna happen well over here we see in terms of property prices the Fed says hey just a heads up in terms of commercial real estate farmland and residential real estate generally these take more time to respond to sudden changes in economic activity but appear likely to come under pressure that's a big red flag right there the feds going yo hey y'all real estate investors yo Kevin we know you've got a really good course on real estate just a heads up man you better get some really good wedge deals okay because you might be coming under pressure and that's where I go it's all good I got good wedges continuing on here on stocks look at this suggesting the uncertainty remains high and markets remain volatile relative to their historic norms suggesting the possibility of further price declines should developments prove to be more adverse that's kind of what they had in the summary up front price declines could be especially pronounced in areas where valuations have remained high and where asset values are sensitive to the pace of the economy now that phrase is pretty specific to commercial real estate in my opinion obviously other things certain stocks could be heavily affected here as well but the big one they point to is commercial real estate and that makes sense because they kind of start bagging on commercial real estate a bit more but let's just keep reading in order the pages they have here we have however prices in the stock market relative to earnings forecasts have risen since late march to levels seen before the outbreak so they're saying in certain stocks they're kind of as expensive as they were before the outbreak which is kind of crazy here we go here's where they slam commercial more we just read you this lime prices of commercial real estate and farmland were highly elevated relative to their income streams on the eve of the pandemic suggesting that there Isis could fall notably thanks that's not good this is exactly why I actually bought and maybe I just shouldn't have it all but I actually bought shares in this real estate investment trust called Simon Property Group at about 33% off of their previous valuation in my opinion that is an oversight that is this is speculative though okay this represents like less than probably nine percent of my portfolio so don't go run SPG with all of your money okay don't dump all your money into this but SPG is something that focuses more on and I know this is gonna sound like cringe to some of y'all Premium outlet malls malls like I get it that's not the sector you want to be in obviously you'll wanna be and like zoom and things like that but if you're looking for value in my opinion there's a potential value play there I mean who knows it's discounted over 67 percent you know they haven't cut their dividend yet I'm expecting it to get cut I'm not so worried about that but it'll be interesting this to me is my vaccine recovery play personally because they've gotten slapped hard and that's the interesting thing is real estate investment trusts will move with the market like right away whereas actual like underlying real estate prices tend to take a lot longer so you see that reaction right away in wreaths where you don't necessarily see it as fast in real estate you kind of have to wait for rents to fall people stop making their payments then the cash flows get reconciled it's like oh crap we got less money yo maybe we should cut the dividend maybe that fifteen percent dividend is a little bit too high in fact let's take a peek really quick at what it is let's just type into Google here SPG stock let's see what the dividend yield is together right now the dividend yield and right at a price of a 50 dollars and 32 cents for fifty one dollars and 32 cents it's showing up with a dividend yield of sixteen point three seven percent that's that's not happening that's not lasting but look at it over the last five years here and don't worry this is not the only thing I looked at I didn't only look back at what the price was but I look at the actual underlying assets and the properties that they've acquired and I know a lot of these malls you can look at all that's all public but these folks they're at least they're selling for 2009 prices over here crazy which maybe you think that's reasonable but anyway I'm not trying to pitch them let's talk more about what the Fed is saying here so commercial real estate may undergo a substantial repricing in response to disruptions generated by the Cova 19 pandemic for instance since late February the hospitality and retail sectors have experienced precipitous declines in demand because of social distancing putting the ability of these sectors to make timely mortgage and rental payments into question totally true and that's exactly that kind of plummet we've seen in SPG and what they're saying is this is what is to come for actual real estate sort of commercial real estate underlying property values kind of scary to see the feds say these things I mean this is definitely not a good feeling stability report then we've got housing prices were somewhat elevated relative to rents before covin 19 that's interesting house prices have grown at a moderate pace for the past several quarters and nationwide prices appear only a little above their long-run average relationship with property rents however housing price to rent ratios vary significantly across regional markets basically what they're saying is they haven't really noticed a change in real estate pricing yet and pricing in real estate has been slightly higher than some norms that we've seen in the past but not dramatically high in fact right here they suggest that here's the growth of prices of existing homes this is not inflation adjusted but it kind of shows you that if I kind of draw a line over here we again this is probably about four percent right here four percent growth is where that red line is and you can kind of see real estate has been somewhere between this four and five percent line for really the last ten years in annual growth you had this sort of almost 10 percent spike over here in 1112 in the 13 area and then kind of this this nice growth over here of around four and a half to five percent which is good but yeah I mean is it possible that real estate prices are going to decline possibly we know that we have mortgage forbearance but let's see what the feds saying about this because they talk about exactly this so let's jump forward because I'll tell you there are a lot of pages to read here and I just want to give you the bottom lines that's where you can see the Federal Reserve says that mortgage borrowing poses less risk to the financial system than in the 2000s through the end of 2019 new mortgage extensions remained skewed towards prime borrowers and widespread forbearance measures could help dampen the effect uncovered nineteen delinquencies which were at low levels at the end of 2019 they also said few borrowers had negative equity and that the pandemic however might put downward pressure on to housing prices the ratio of outstanding mortgage debt to home values at the end of nineteen was at the level seen in the relatively calm housing market of the late 90s so that's actually good and they say here that higher levels of home equity that's the net worth but essentially people have in their homes generally reduce the likelihood of borrower defaults however they do go on to say that some households do struggle with keeping up with debt payments so the prime borrowers sort of in real estate are kind of okay but where the problems are in households where you have mainly student loan debt auto loans and credit card debt in fact I found these charts very interesting and take a look at this prime borrowers borrowed the most amount of car debt so they took on the largest loans but if you go over to auto delinquency rates the delinquency rate for prime borrowers was next to zero percent but for subprime borrowers people with lower credit scores like under 650 they had delinquencies over here in the range of 10 to 12 percent that's substantially higher and you see the same exact thing in credit card delinquencies look at this you see that people with higher credit scores took on substantially more debt but when you go delinquencies they had substantially fewer delinquencies and this is really interesting when you compare it to real estate because what they're saying is in real estate most of the people buying real estate right now highly-qualified that is their mostly prime borrowers we're not really seeing those subprime loans that we used to see those ninja no income no job no asset loans so this to me is just fascinating insight into what the Fed thinks is actually happening in the market and so I'm about to show you one of the bangers of this report but before I do have to remind you to make sure to get your life insurance because this might be stress inducing okay your life insurance it takes you three to four minutes to do it on your phone some say up to five minutes you Apple pay for it super easy to do I've got it Laurens got it make sure you get your two free stocks with weeble it's so funny like I look back at some of my old videos from like May 9th and in the videos I'm like you know weevil says that promotion to get two free stocks when you deposit $100 is gonna expire but they've said that before I don't see it happening and then it expired for like a day and the next day I got an email from them go Kevin just a heads up I guess that promotion was really popular and we're bringing it back people really like the platform and they like their two free stocks I'm like it's kind of what I figured you'd say whatever link down below for that okay let's get to the Banger here in this bed report because oh yeah yeah and then I'll try to make a conclusion on all of this okay but golly this is this is overwhelming okay borrowing by businesses and households here we go while household debt vulnerabilities were generally modest before the pandemic the severity of the shock and the associated sudden increase in unemployment and sharp decline in incomes may lead to a significant rise in delinquencies and defaults on household debt that's bad when the Federal Reserve comes out and says we might see significant increases in delinquencies and defaults that is a not a good sign for the rest of what's happening in the market if anything this is literally the Fed you know how many pages is this this is a 68 page report telling y'all yo we got 68 pages just to tell you y'all Congress we need some more stimulus because the banks are ok we got them handled the credit markets we got them hand worried about household debt and the consumers how many more different ways do you want us to tell you okay you want another report we'll have another report for you next week okay or maybe we'll do a speech again anyway in regards to my opinion on this look I'm that long-term trained America person I teach you my strategies in my money program in the course link below my investing strategies my POV is I want to build the biggest fattest treasure chest ever and have the most assets in it and the most wealth building over time so I just keep dumping assets into this is that gonna go for a ride potentially with prices going down and up again maybe but because I'm such a big fan of figuring out how to buy things below market value I feel more comfortable I try to take on as little debt as possible my debt ratios are very very low relative to what could be or what might sometimes be industry-standard that's one of my big safety nets I say but anyway there you have a my opinion my short opinion on what I'm doing in response to this but I will say that does make me nervous it does not make me feel good about having bought stocks today okay but I did feel good about using Weeble you should it to]
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