저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준의 대규모 돈 찍기에도 현재 인플레이션보다 디플레이션 위험이 크다고 주장. 과거 독일 하이퍼인플레이션은 통화 발행보다 정치적 신뢰 붕괴 때문이었다고 설명. 대공황식 디플레 나선을 막으려면 월 2,000달러 직접 현금지원이 필요하다는 경제학자 주장을 소개. 최근 10년 부의 혜택은 자산가에게 집중됐고 인플레이션이 자산 보유자에게 유리하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Kevin here how would you feel if I told you that right now Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was creating money with his money printer at the rate of 1 million dollars per second well you might not believe me but if I told you it was true you might start thinking to yourself oh my gosh what if we experience hyperinflation like didn't Germany have that problem at some point and ahead like the pictures of the people with the wheelbarrows of money or the kids with the little kites of money yeah and that might lead you to think okay how do I plan for this I should buy a wheelbarrow because after all the people who got rich in the gold rush or necessarily the gold miners but the people selling the pickaxes right so if we're gonna all need wheelbarrows for our money you may as well get in the business of buying a wheelbarrow well hold that thought but I am going to break down what's happening with our financial system actually printing 1 million dollars per second and an economist point of view on whether or not we need more stimulus and would more stimulus prevent the next Great Depression well let's get into exactly what his expectations are and honestly these are expectations that have been echoed by a lot of economists this is just very well broken down and I'm gonna simplify in plain English because honestly when you read a bunch of reports from economists not even a full cup of joe can help you stay awake afterwards I'm gonna try to prevent that through this and of course I'm gonna link the article down below called terminal deflation is coming you'll find that link right below the links s expected that promotion is back in action so get your two free stocks with weevil and of course I get your quote for life insurance within four to five minutes you could sign up for life insurance and you can feel at ease like I do don't I look like I'm at ease anyway let's get into the article I'm gonna break this down in a very simple way so here's the scoop the author starts the article by saying look we're in unprecedented times not only are we in unprecedented times but we were basically conducting what he refers to as unprecedented experiments in monetary policy that doesn't necessarily in my opinion at least make us feel good especially when he says that our system is growing to a nine trillion dollar balance sheet created since the Great Recession and that essentially we are injecting about 1 million dollars into the financial system every second and so obviously this has us fearful of what he calls an inflationary disaster and how could you blame that because when we think of money printing we that's loan what's the first thing that we think of or we think of what happened in the 1970s which in the 1970s we had something even worse we had something called stagflation where all of a sudden the economy was stagnated there was an oil crisis we left the gold standard and basically we had massive inflation which really the easiest way to think of massive inflation isn't necessarily by thinking of dollars themselves it's to think of purchasing power which just means right now how much power do you have based on your net worth or you know what make it simple based on the amount of money that you have in your pocket how many loaves of bread can you buy and you want to think of that in terms of okay well let's say I go to my job and I make $400 a week and a loaf of bread costs about four dollars I can afford 100 loaves of bread this week well what happens if I go do my same job next week I make seven youtube videos every two days and all of a sudden instead of being able to buy a 100 loaves of bread I can only buy 50 loaves of bread well my purchasing power has been reduced by half it's like what happened and then what if two or three weeks after that I can only buy one loaf of bread it's like wait I'm working all week for a loaf of bread dude can you just pay me in loaves of bread now how about you just pay me in 50 loaves of bread instead of money because the money is worthless and as soon as money loses a very key element trust people stop using it they start bartering their labor and their trades and other things and all of a sudden a currency could experience this hyperinflation the wheelbarrows of money to convince somebody to trade you a good or a service well let's see what the author here suggests happened after the 1970s era of stagflation where the economy basically wasn't growing and we had high inflation what happened then and could we expect something like that now well the author accurately represents that back in 1979 Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker came out and said you know what we're experiencing such high under productivity in our market and high inflation what we're going to do is we are going to raise interest rates to unprecedented Heights to try to push down inflation but in doing so Paul Volcker actually induced a recession a very bad recession where hundreds of thousands of jobs were lost but the inflation rate went down and I know today we might think hundreds of thousands of jobs we're losing millions of jobs right now Christ well today is certainly an unprecedented time and we'll be talking about that shortly but what's fascinating about this is back then we had this issue of basically creating a recession to get out of high inflation but what's weird is right now we're printing money like crazy and we're not seeing high inflation if anything we're kind of going in the direction of deflation which if we keep printing money mindlessly isn't that inflation going to come at some point in fact the author says that in 1923 hyperinflation happened in Germany and it stood as a dramatic warning for about the threat of the expanding money supply says basically the threat of money printing and that's consistently been what we think of when we think of hyperinflation but he actually says that hyperinflation didn't come because of money printing instead it came because of a political crisis that is there was a lack of trust and political legitimacy to where the old-school Germany couldn't raise taxes anymore they couldn't make loans anymore aka nobody wanted the old Weimar Republic in money the money was worthless to the consumers and because of this lack of trust hyperinflation set in people with wheelbarrows of money well whether or not you like the United States's political system which can tend to be its own you know cluster of a problem you probably believe at least to some degree that if you're going to pick a currency in the world to trust probably the most trustful one might be the United States dollar and so that has led to the United States ability to basically print money like crazy without us seeing hyperinflation but what's actually happening in the market right now and that's where the author goes on to say well right now we're actually starting to see more of a threat of deflation than inflation even though we're printing money like crazy and now it helps to understand okay well if inflation is running around with a wheelbarrow full of money and all my wheelbarrow of money is buying way less loaves of bread than it used to and I don't really want this money anymore it's kind of a hassle to deal with and it's kind of a you know worthless that's inflation well what then is deflation well the author goes on to say the deflation is what you might imagine you'd see during a time of the Great Depression the Great Depression was a time where folks instead of staying in line to buy gas because of gas shortages were standing in line at soup kitchens just to be able to survive there was no work you had a stagnant economy nobody wanted to spend money due to rampant deflation and a reduction in prices and all of a sudden you have one of the worst economic periods in history well could that happen again today and what is deflation well other than that grim picture I just painted for you of what deflation looks and feels like what does deflation actually do to your money well it actually means that you can buy more loaves of bread because your purchasing power actually goes up as the prices of things come down so let me ask you this if you had four hundred dollars in your wallet today and you are able to buy a hundred loaves of bread today but I told you that next week that same money could buy you a hundred fifty or two hundred loaves of bread well you might be tempted not to spend that money and that's kind of exactly what happens in a deflationary time in fact I drew this very high-tech picture here that says we're motivated not to spend money and when we're motivated not to spend money what happens well then companies have to drop prices because we're not spending and in order to convince people to spend companies drop prices but when companies drop their prices that just confirms that we were right even though we're sad because prices keep going down we were right not to spend our money so we continued not to spend our money which again turns into prices declining which turns into the ability to have a job going away as companies hire less people and people get laid off which basically means the economy loses more money overall and our entire economy suffers miserably deflation and the deflationary spiral see if I kind of draw a little spiral here around all these little pictures I drew that is the deflationary spiral the deflationary spiral is very very bad for our economy because not only do prices go down not only do we spend less money not only do businesses lay off people but as the author here says deflation encourages businesses not to invest and that's because every time there's deflation the burden of our debt actually gets bigger so deflation is bad because if you have credit card debt student loan debt car debt or businesses have debt or people have mortgage debt the burden of paying off that money becomes larger as prices fall here's why that happens I just went through that example and I showed you that prices come down and you could buy more loaves of bread because prices come down but because prices come down businesses have to start laying off people and that means hours get cut so your income also goes down so you win at the beginning of the cycle waiting and not spending money but you end up getting screwed because now the debt you owe is more painful your income is less and businesses produce less revenue so deflation is a really bad thing especially as companies all of a sudden start laying off a bunch of people and saying things like you know what we're just not gonna rehire that many people back which is oddly similar to exactly what's happening today in fact while 91% of people who got laid off in March think they're going to have a job to go back to there's research that suggests only 42 percent of those jobs will actually be available which means all of a sudden a lot of people are going to be without jobs while at the same time a lot of companies are dropping their prices to encourage people to spend money but that's just reiterating why you know what let's just let's just save for these tough times coming ahead because well businesses could always just drop prices more and now that I just told you even your job might be uncertain you might be even more nervous and wanting to save but wait a minute if we're printing money like crazy why would we have that deflationary problem I just talked about that doesn't make sense well the author of this article this economist also addresses exactly that in fact he suggested that the easiest thing we could do is look at the last decade the last about 12 years what we find is that 12 years ago the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was only about one trillion dollars now it's approaching nine trillion dollars and how much inflation do we have almost none in fact we've missed our inflation target pretty much every single inflation reading since 2008 but it's not just us we can also look at countries like the Bank of Japan or even the European Central Bank and even the Bank of England all who have substantially pumped money into their economy and still have not seen inflation so all of a sudden it's like wait a minute this is weird we can't really explain what's happening but we know that the more Jerome Powell Prince's money printer the less were actually in a weird way seeing in raishin in fact he suggests that deflation is already happening it's already happening in our country we're not only seeing oil prices plummet dramatically and yeah they've take tup slightly but over the long scale they're way lower especially if you look back to prices in 2008 and not only that but we essentially had a lost decade in terms of jobs that is most of the benefits of the last decade the last twelve years after the Great Recession actually went to the highest income earners the top one percent of families receive 49 percent of all income growth from 2009 to 2010 and in fact something he refers to as the quit rate of people who just gave up working or working at the high level jobs maybe they once had is substantially higher than it's ever been before and that labor force total participation has never recovered to its 2007 levels so we look at the last decade it's like oh well I mean that that overall looks like a good decade I mean look what the Dow Jones is doing the markets way up right well not really this is good for like the 1% and the people who own assets the people who own real estate and stocks kind of like what I teach you to do in my courses down below but once you look at this you go man it's kind of true the wealth gap has split because of deflation actually already happening in our country the only inflation we're really seeing is the wealth of the 1% and the rich are getting richer and richer and this does make sense because remember how earlier I suggested that hey if you have debt and deflation happens it's actually harder to pay off that debt it's kind of like if you lose your job and you have debt it's kind of hard to make payments on your debt and then if you get a job that pays you 20% less money which the Fed Reserve believes might happen then it's even harder to pay back that debt right if that happens across the entire economy that's bad but who actually wins when the Fed prints money who benefits when there's even 1 to 2% inflation not a lot but just a little bit well generally it's people with assets and I hate to align myself with side but I own a lot of money and stocks and I own a lot of real estate and I have mortgages against most of those real estate rental properties and what happens is anytime there's some inflation my wealth actually goes up because not only do all of the assets tend to go up in value stocks get boosted in value real estate gets boosts in value but my income tends to go up and so all of a sudden when I had a hundred thousand dollars in debt and let's say I was making $100,000 a year it would take me one year of work to pay that off but let's say now there's inflation the property's worth more but the debts still a hundred thousand dollars and all of a sudden instead of me making a hundred thousand dollars well this year making a hundred twenty thousand dollars it's actually easier for me to pay that money off so this is why people in America who own assets win when you own stocks and real estate and you understand the psychology of investing you win the only really bad thing that could happen to people who own assets stocks or real estate I mean you could almost throw a dart and have one over the last 12 years the only bad thing that can happen to not only the 1% or people who own stocks and real estate people who own assets is deflation but deflation also screws people who don't have assets so you kind of have to like pick between the evils you go well if there's deflation then everyone gets screwed if there's some inflation well then at least it's a little bit easier to pay off debts and it yeah it does disproportionately reward people who take risks and start businesses and buy real estate and buy stocks but that leaves a lot of the country behind so what is the author say is the only way to solve this crap we don't want deflation but inflation unfairly rewards people who invest and buy assets how do you solve it well the author suggests that the only solution in this kind of crisis is not being worried about the risk of doing too much but instead being worried about the risk of doing too little yeah we should support credit markets and support businesses to help people get their jobs back but look at this no one off stimulus check will reassure anyone that the lockdown will not extend through the fall or return once it has been lifted demand stimulus through Congress even at an unprecedented scale are in commensurate to this crisis basically are not enough and what instead we need is direct universal unconditional income support far from generating hyperinflation it may be the only way to avoid a deflationary spiral that rivals the Great Depression aka we need to pass the most popular bill with co-sponsorship and the petition we signed in Congress now support for $2,000 per month in stimulus checks and that in this economists opinion is the only way to actually prevent deflation thanks so much for watching folks make sure if you like the way I explain things and break things down that I could do the same thing for you so that you can learn how to invest in stocks in real estate and a psychology of finally putting your money into assets so you too can build your wealth and let's now keep our fingers crossed that Congress and people who are very very important also see this video so make sure to share this with your friends and family and everybody realizes that yep we definitely need some inflation we don't want deflation and golly we better start buying some real estate and stocks and hopefully we get some stimulus checks to help us along the way because clearly there's not the time to worry about hyperinflation clearly now's the time to worry about going back to the Great Depression
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