Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Investors: Get Ready for a Surge in Revenue | TSM Stock Analysis

요약 보기

TSMC 경영진은 AI 가속기 시장이 연 40%대 성장할 것으로 보고, 향후 5년 매출 CAGR 20% 이상을 전망한다. AI 가속기는 TSMC 매출의 약 절반이며 엔비디아 등 주요 고객의 위탁생산을 담당한다. 미국 애리조나 공장은 2024년 4분기 양산에 들어가 수율도 대만 공장 수준이다. 애널리스트는 과거 매수 의견을 냈다가 주가 3배 상승 후 보유로 하향했으나, 주가·밸류에이션이 내려오면 다시 매수할 것이라고 밝혔다. 이는 TSMC 주식에 대한 조건부 긍정 견해다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Taiwan semiconductor management is forecasting a compounded annual growth rate of Revenue of over 20% over the next 5 years from an already elevated level of Revenue it earned in 2024 that's a bullish forecast to be sure why is the company so bullish well let's talk about that in this video here as well as some other factors that Taiwan stock investor should know abou management saying that they forecast the revenue growth from AI accelerators to approach mid 40% compound annual growth rate for to 5year period starting off an already elevated level in 2024 so AI accelerators are the products that most specifically Nvidia sells Nvidia has a market share in this category estimated at between 80 and 90% this Market is expected to grow according to Taiwan semiconductor at a mid 40% compound annual growth rate now that doesn't mean that Nvidia is going to capture all of that competitors are beginning to rise up although no one no one has demonstrated an ability to compete against Nvidia because of its huge advantage in software as well as the AI accelerator the physical product itself AMD launched its Mi 300X Intel launched gudi and companies from Amazon and alphabet and Microsoft are working on their own custom chips for certain segments of till this Market is expected to increase substantially over the next five years and I would argue over the next decade and more if investors were squeamish about nvidia's forecasts and the valuation of Nvidia and why I've been so bullish on Nvidia you can look to this as yet another data point to substantiate the fact that this Market is here to grow it's uh just the beginning stages of growth and that's what I hear and that's what I've reported on from all of the big players in this industry I highlighted some of them already and seemingly everyone that I evaluate every institution that I evaluate talks about robust forecasts for artificial intelligence specifically tself forecasts a 5year compounded annual revenue growth rate at 20% Taiwan semiconductor is the manufacturing partner for many of the companies that I just talked about including Nvidia AMD it even does some manufacturing for Intel and others and so if the market is growing at a 40% rate Taiwan semiconductor is poised to benefit from a large part of that growth now the reason Taiwan semiconductor is not expecting to grow at 40% and it's only expecting to grow at 20 % is because the AI accelerator business or the high performance Computing business is roughly half of its business right it has another half of its business that's not expected to grow very quickly and and those are segments that are serving the smartphone market the PC market the tablet Market Automotive Market etc those markets are not expected to grow by all that much low single digits in 2025 maybe a little better in 2026 and 2027 but those are more mature markets not expected to grow at anywhere near the rate of the AI accelerator Market all right so one of the ways Taiwan semi is planning to capture that growth is through manufacturing expansion and Manufacturing upgrades and one of their manufacturing expansion priorities is diversification to be present outside of Taiwan to have facilities outside of Taiwan and the compan saying that their overseas decisions are based on customers need as they value some Geographic flexibilities and the necessary level of government support which they have been getting right you've heard of the billions of dollars in investments from the chips act in the United States where Taiwan semiconductor is one of the companies that benefited with billions of dollars in government grants and Loans so it's an opportune time for Taiwan semiconductor to make this investment because they are getting those subsidies from governments like the United States like Japan like Germany Etc right so if they were ever going to expand and bite that bullet because it is going to come with higher cost they cannot manufacture at the unit economic that they manufacture in their home country and so the costs are going to be higher and so you need government support to incentivize Taiwan semiconductor to build those manufacturing facilities outside of Taiwan the company also said that they were able to pull ahead the production schedule for their first Fab in Arizona their first Fab has already entered high volume production in the fourth quarter 2024 utilizing N4 processed technology with the yield comparable to their Fabs in Taiwan and let me just highlight how this gives the management team even more credibility more than they've already earned with their two decades and more of excellent performance Taiwan semiconductor is a very well-run company and you like to see and I especially like to see companies do this right and you hear of many companies that give you a forecast and they say things like we're going to have driverless car technology in one year right and then you fast forward six years later 10 years later and they still don't have that technology whereas you see some companies say look we're going to begin production on this new fabrication facility in the first quarter of 2025 and they actually do it in the fourth quarter of 2024 so earlier than expected with a higher yield than expected with better outcome than initially expected right that's the difference in quality management versus is uh management that misses forecasts and relies on other factors to boost Share value Taiwan semiconductor is very much a product company they get investor attention because of the value of the products they produce not because of their marketing department or their legal department or their political Department this is a company that's demonstrated excellent skill in manufacturing of a technology that so difficult to manufacture and that's why they've built such a lead and that's why companies like Nvidia and apple and AMD and Intel are going to Taiwan semiconductor for their very critical highest priority manufacturing needs and in my opinion this is one of the reasons why I initially rid I had Taiwan semiconductor stock rated as a buy for a long time I recently downgraded it because the stock had tripled since I recommended it as a buy and so now I'm keeping it I had it rated as a hold or a market perform because it had already increased by so much but if the price and the valuation were to come back down I would be quick to rate Taiwan semiconductor as a buy again because I'm so impressed with the company's manufacturing performance their ability to produce these very difficult to produce products at such an efficient yield at such an effective rate leaving competition behind