저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 쉬프는 연준이 사실상 피벗했고 인플레이션이 재가속해 금·은이 유리하며, 비트코인은 랠리에도 불구하고 매도 권고. 비트코인 및 투기성 자산: 2023년 1분기 비트코인은 약 70% 상승, 그레이스케일 비트코인 트러스트는 약 120% 상승했다고 언급. 쉬프는 이를 투기성 위험자산 랠리로 보고, 작년에 팔지 않은 비트코인 보유자는 지금 매도하라고 권고. 비트코인은 약 2.8만 달러 수준. 금·은: 금은 분기 중 온스당 약 140달러 상승, 1,970달러에 마감했다고 설명. 2,000달러 아래에서 매수 기회가 있으며 큰 상승을 예상. 은은 인플레이션 환경에서 금보다 나은 대안으로 제시(비트코인 대체재로 금 또는 은 추천). 달러·환율: 달러지수는 연초 103.5에서 분기말 102.6으로 하락. 금리 인상에도 달러가 약세였으며, 브라질-중국 간 자국 통화 결제 확대를 들어 탈달러화를 강조. 연준이 다시 양적완화에 들어가 달러 약세가 더 진행될 것으로 봄. 금리·채권: 분기 중 장기 금리 하락(30년물 4%→3.7%, 10년물 3.9%→3.5%, 5년물 4%→3.6%), 수익률 곡선 역전. 시장은 올여름 금리 인하를 반영 중이라고 설명. 쉬프는 연준이 제로 금리까지 내리기는 어렵다고 봄. 인플레이션·신용 위기: 12년간의 완화로 누적된 인플레이션이 이제 나타나기 시작했으며 가격 상승이 이어질 것. 은행권(SVB, 시그니처 등) 문제가 확산되고, 기업·지방정부·개인의 고금리 부채 상환 부담이 커져 금융위기로 이어질 것이라 경고. 주식: 아크 혁신 ETF 등 고위험 기술주 반등을 언급하며, 투자자들이 이번 완화 사이클이 과거와 같다고 잘못 가정하고 있다고 지적. 리스크: 연준 피벗이 공식화되지 않았고, 금리 인하 폭은 제한적일 것이라는 점에서 낙관은 제한적.
다듬은 글
if you own Bitcoin and you didn't sell last year sell now [ look at the arc Innovation ETF that was up 29 remember that was beaten down the most and so it had an even bigger rebound as investors are again making the wrong assumption that this easing cycle is going to be a carbon copy of the last one and so they want to buy the you know the crappiest type names the most speculative names like the ones that are in that Fund in fact getting to crappy speculative names Bitcoin as I alluded to earlier in my April Fool's joke was up about 70 percent on the quarter and I know all the Bitcoin guys are just you know excited about this and bragging about how this is the top performing asset in fact the grayscale Bitcoin trust did even better it was up a hundred and twenty percent on the quarter so the discount narrowed as some more people are betting I guess that maybe they might be able to get this thing to be an ETF and they'll be able to cash out at nav or something like that but so the grayscale Bitcoin trust which was down more than Bitcoin in 2022 has rebounded more than Bitcoin in uh 2023 and you know the Bitcoin story is a little bit different because not only is it Rising with the other highly speculative risk-on Tech names but a lot of people in the Bitcoin community are reacting to this fed pivot because part of the rationale for buying Bitcoin was similar to my rationale for wanting to buy gold or wine to buy gold stocks which was that I knew that eventually the Fed was going to Pivot because I knew that it's feigned inflation fight would create a financial crisis and that the minute that financial crisis reared its head the FED would be forced to Pivot in its inflation fight because it would become more concerned over the impending financial crisis and so that is where we are and so we've now got the unofficial pivot I mean the reason I'm saying it's unofficial is because the FED hasn't cut rates and even though it's done quantitative easing it's kind of denying that it's doing it and it's come up with these BS excuses why what it's doing is not quantitative easing even though it's doing exactly what it was doing when it was admitting to doing quantitative easing but you have to read between the lines it's not that hard to do that right because you know there's a lot there the lines are pretty wide but you have to read between them and recognize that the FED is already pivoted I mean you can't wait for an engraved invitation Because by the time that happens I mean you know the prices of gold and things like that are going to be much much higher which is why I've been encouraging people to buy by the way gold itself was up about a hundred and forty dollars an ounce on the quarter we didn't close the quarter above 2 000.
we we poked above it a couple of times we closed at 1970 dollars an ounce so the markets are giving you an opportunity to buy gold below two thousand I don't know how much longer that opportunity is going to be there but I do expect to see a big move up in the price of gold which is why I've you know really have been suggesting very strongly that those of you who have been on the fence regarding their purchases you know get off the fence and and make your purchase contact uh shift gold uh and do that or you know talk to the Reps at your Pacific Asset Management about getting involved in the mining stocks through a separately managed account through my uh through my gold fund and if you own Bitcoin and you didn't sell last year sell now you've got this Great Rally in Bitcoin I mean we're not quite back to thirty thousand but maybe we're as close as we're going to get we'll see I mean it's hard to know exactly when this thing is going to run out of steam uh maybe it's doing it now but you know it's up around 28 000.
there is a lot more optimism now in Bitcoin I've noticed that I think because that the FED has gone back to QE because everybody realizes that they're going to be cutting rates because we're embarking on a financial crisis and the Bitcoin people think this is it this is the moment we've been waiting for right no it's the moment I've been waiting for they've been waiting for it too but they're betting on the wrong horse because what this moment is going to do is expose the FED it's going to destroy the dollar and it's going to result in more people moving into gold as an alternative to the dollar they're not going to be moving into Bitcoin people think they will but they're wrong but because other people still think that's going to happen you've got this rally so people who are in Bitcoin you have an opportunity now to to change horses and actually get on the winner and get off of this course I know yes uh uh Tudor Jones said it was the fastest horse in the race but I don't think it's in the race anymore I think it's headed to the glue factory so you got to get on the Gold Horse if you want a faster horse then try silver I know Hi-Ho Silver that might uh that might be it I think that was that was the long Rangers horse right silver so I think silver could be the one you want to ride in this inflationary environment but anyway getting back to the numbers so part of what was going on that that was driving the moves was a the dollar which stopped going up remember the dollar had been strong the dollar was down on the quarter it didn't collapse on the quarter but it dropped the dollar Index ended last year at 103 and a half and it ended the quarter at 102.60 so despite three rate hikes or two rate hikes 50 75 basis points we had a 50 and a 25 right I think so despite those rate hikes the dollar went down so the dollar didn't go up with the rate hikes it went down and now that the FED is done hiking well now the dollar can really go down but the big move was in the bond market this was what really helps explain the enthusiasm for tech stocks and that is the rise in bond prices the drop in yields on the longer maturity debt and the inversion of the yield curve so the yield for the 30-year treasury on the quarter went from four percent to 3.7 percent on the 10-year we went from 3.9 to 3.5 and the five-year went from four percent to 3.6 so despite the fact that the FED hiked interest rates by 75 basis points long-term yields went down and even though the FED funds rate is now five percent you're only getting 3.7 on a 30-year treasury 3.5 out of 10 and 3.6 out of 5.
so the markets are baking in not only substantial rate cuts and in fact the rate cuts are going to start according to the market but over the summer if you look at the yield on a one-year treasury bill they imply that the FED is going to be cutting rates I think by the summer so not only have they finished hiking but they're about to start cutting but also inherent in the assumption that the FED can cut raids is that when the FED Cuts rates inflation is going to keep on falling it's not inflation is going to keep on Rising I think regardless of what the FED does with rates because the inflation that we are dealing with right now the Fed was crating it for 12 years we're only now at the cusp of the problem manifesting itself there was a much longer lag for many many reasons that I've gone over on other podcasts but we've finally caught up with the inflation that was Unleashed over a decade ago and so as this money now continues to make its way through the economy it is going to bid up prices but I think what's going to be even more uh important is going to be the drop in the value of the US dollar in fact again I think it was yesterday more news on a deal between Brazil and China and China is Brazil's largest trading partner but now these two nations are going to be trading with one another and invoicing and settling their transactions in their own currencies whereas they used to use the US dollar so just another nail in that coffin you can see this going on now uh flashing red lights that the world is de-dollarizing and you know the main reason that when the FED went to QE the first time in 2009 2010 the the reason the dollar didn't immediately drop was because the world central banks were loading up on Dollar they were buying all these dollars they were buying all these treasuries remember we called it the currency War because they didn't want their currencies to go up against the dollar well that is completely different now they would love to see their currencies go up against the dollar they want out of the dollar and so as the FED re-embarks on this new easing cycle more QE which is just inflation as they start creating inflation instead of trying to put out the fire they're throwing more wood on the fire and they're no longer uh hiking raids and by the way I don't think we're going to go back down to zero I don't think the FED is going to be able to do that given how high inflation is going to get in the months and years ahead that doesn't mean they're not going to try they're not going to cut raids somewhat but I don't think there's going to be a situation like covid where the FED is allowed to bring them all the way down to zero I don't even think they'll get down to one percent which is where they were after the.com bubble so the FED doesn't have the ability to provide that much stimulus to the markets which is one of the reasons that tech stocks did so well now as they did then because you've got inflation that is a intervening factor that wasn't a factor then but I think the enormity of the budget deficits and the ongoing financial crisis in the banking sector which is going to spill over beyond the banks first of all it's not just Silicon Valley Bank or or Signature Bank it's all the banks that have these problems but it's not just the banks that are going to be impacted by higher rates Even If the Fed Cuts rates a little bit from where they still are they're still much higher than they were when a lot of debt was incurred and all that debt is going to be rolled over so it's not just the banks that are in a predicament and again it's not just private Banks the Federal Reserve you know its balance sheet is way underwater it's losing a lot of money it's having to send those bills to the treasury but Corporate America you know all the you know a lot of state governments the municipalities they took on a lot of debt some of that debt is shorter in term it's going to mature right everybody has been living off of cheap money and that cheap money has enabled debtors to take on even more debt but the problem is as the cost of that debt Rises they can't afford to service it let alone repay it and that's going to happen in Corporate America that's going to happen uh for individuals who took on too much debt it's 12 years that debtors have been given this huge subsidy in the form of these artificially low rates and even though they're still low they're not as low as they were and that's going to create a big problem
Comments 0