저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 시프는 중앙은행의 저금리·양적완화가 은행 지급불능 위험을 낳았고, 달러 기축통화 지위는 장기적으로 약화될 것이며, 2021년 증시 고점은 유동성 버블의 정점이었다고 본다. 은행 위기: 연준·ECB·BOE·BOJ의 장기 저금리와 양적완화로 은행들이 장기 국채·MBS를 보유하고 있으나, 금리 인상으로 채권 평가가치가 하락해 예금 인출 시 손실이 드러난다고 주장. 예금 금리(미국 4~5%)가 은행 보유자산 수익률(1~2%)보다 높아 예금 이탈이 가속된다고 봄. 독일은행(Deutsche Bank)을 포함한 다수 은행이 위험하다고 언급. 달러 기축통화: 1971년 닉슨의 금태환 중단 이후 사우디와의 석유 달러 결제 합의로 달러 수요가 유지되어 왔으나, 세계가 이 특권의 경제적 비용(낮은 생활수준·소비)과 정치적 비용(달러 무기화, 러시아 제재)을 부담하며 탈달러화가 진행 중이라고 봄. 시기는 특정하기 어렵지만 달러의 기축통화·석유 결제 통화 지위는 '시간문제'로 본다. 증시 고점: 2021년 S&P500 신고가는 소수 대형 성장주(FANG 등)가 주도했고, 코로나 기간 중앙은행의 유동성 공급과 봉쇄로 인한 소비 제약이 이들 종목으로 자금을 몰리게 했다고 설명. 밈주식·NFT·암호화폐 광풍을 함께 언급하며 2021년이 버블의 블로우오프 탑이었고, 현재 그 거품에서 공기가 빠지는 중이라고 평가. 금·인플레이션: 인플레이션은 중앙은행 정책의 직접적 결과이며, 금 등 실물자산이 대안이라는 취지의 언급(제목 기준). 단, 본문에서 구체적 가격 목표는 제시되지 않음. 리스크: 금리 인상 지속 시 은행 예금 인출 사태, 정책 실패에 따른 인플레이션 장기화 가능성.
다듬은 글
but this is a problem I was warning about this specific problem as well as many others over a decade ago I knew what the end game was going to be I just thought no I didn't know how long the game was going to be played I just knew how it was going to end [ Peter um the latest news I had was Deutsche Bank who or what is next Peter well you know a lot of banks are in trouble thanks to the Reckless monetary policies of central banks around the world you know particularly the Federal Reserve the uh Bank of the European Central Bank the bank of England the bank of Japan you know they've kept interest rates at zero or in some cases negative for a decade or so maybe in more in some cases they've also greatly expanded their balance sheets through quantitative easing programs where central banks have been artificially manipulating the price of government debt and basically by extension all that and so as a result a lot of these banks are now the owners of you know longer term government obligations and other obligations like mortgage-backed securities that now in an environment where the FED has finally decided to allow rates to rise to fight off the inflation that it created remember the inflation that we're experiencing is a direct consequences of the mistakes that these central banks made so the same mistakes that are responsible for unleashing the inflation are the ones that are responsible for the banks now being insolvent and so as the central banks are you know raising rates to fight inflation they are exposing these insolvencies because now the value of the bonds that the banks own is dropping and so when depositors want their money back it's not there because it's been lost because the market value of these bonds isn't equal to the deposits now if the depositors are willing to wait 10 20 30 years to get their money maybe they can have it but they don't want to wait that long they need their money now especially since costs are going up uh you know they need more money to pay higher prices and because there's a way to get yield now because all these Banks because they've already committed their deposits to these long-term obligations they're collecting very low interest rates maybe one two percent but depositors can take the money and put it in a money market loaning it to governments and yet in the U.S they can get four or five percent so you know it's easy math to do the banks can't raise rates because they've they've already committed the money to lower yielding assets so depositors want their money so they can put it someplace else to get a higher yield but the banks don't have it right so this is a problem I was warning a about this specific problem as well as many others over a decade ago I knew what the end game was going to be I just thought no I didn't know how long the game was going to be played I just knew how it was going to end the oil you know that Saudi Arabia to the United States dollar I think many Americans I mean we feel that that's kind of our Monopoly that's going to just run the tables forever that's going to be our superpower but do you forecast that changing anytime soon well uh the soon part that's hard to say and and how do you define soon next week next year hard to say right but I do believe that it's going to change the only question is when uh you know this is a privilege that the United States has enjoyed going all the way back to the 70s it was something that I think the Nixon Administration got the Saudis to agree to in exchange really for our defense of of their regime and that was done following the decision by Nixon to suspend Redemption of U.S currency and gold and since the US dollar was no longer backed by gold Nixon decided Well we need to back it by something and he was able to back it by uh oil in Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC because now you needed dollars to buy oil so it created a use for those dollars and so it allowed America to run trade deficits because people needed dollars to buy oil if they didn't need them to buy American products and they couldn't use them to get gold they could use them to acquire oil but I think that the world for many different reasons wants to move away from providing the United States with this privilege because it doesn't come you know for free there's a huge cost that the world bears in in terms of a lower living standard and lower consumption because it helps you know support American profligacy Americans get to live beyond their means and to make that possible the rest of the world collectively lives beneath its means and so there is a economic cost to uh having a dollar as a reserve currency but now there's another cost a political cost because the United States has weaponized the US dollar and we are using our uh dollar status to punish uh countries that that don't do what we want them to do like look what's happening with with Russia so that's sending a very powerful message to the Saudis and everybody else to de-dollarize because they are vulnerable it's like putting your neck in a noose and then throwing the end of the Rope to to your to your adversary and hoping they don't pull it so I I just don't think that they want to do that and so I think there are a lot of reasons now to de-dollarize and I think that's already in the process and so it's just a question of time and again I don't know how many more days but the dollars days are numbered as the reserve currency as are its days as the the unit of account for uh oil in uh in the OPEC nations Peter I've been watching you since 2006 seven and eight and wow wow did you nail it on that one there my concern is you know coming out of this pandemic that we've seen over the last couple of years I'm still baffled as a market player on why the markets reach their all-time highs in uh you know to 2021 2022 why are they even there and is it true maybe I can get your opinion on this that majority of the S P 500 companies there's actually really not much in them maybe you could help me out with understanding this a little better well first of all yeah when you look at the s p making new highs it was a handful of stocks that are responsible for the new high so most stocks did not make new highs in 2021 but the reason you had certain stocks make new highs and those stocks were disproportionately weighted in the s p that was uh you know the the monetary and other policies during covet because what happened in covid is the central banks flooded the economy with new money and a lot of that new money went to buy stocks you know a lot of people were sitting at home with nothing to do and all of a sudden they had a lot of money and they had nothing to spend it on so they decided to buy stocks right you have a lot of Americans uh you know with uh brokerage accounts that are on their cell phones and they were buying stocks and of course the stocks they bought were the Fang stocks these stocks that did make new highs they got sucked into those as well as some some other meme stocks you know they also bought some cryptocurrencies and nfts and crap like that but also perversely the um you know Fang type stocks were the ones that specifically benefited from the coveted lockdowns because their ability to make money wasn't impaired in fact it was enhanced because a lot of people were stuck at home and they couldn't spend their money you know uh in the normal way that they would on other services or at other brick and mortar stores all that extra cash to the extent that consumers spent it you know went into these uh a few uh highly speculative names that that are heavily weighted in in the s p and so that helped you know get the speculation really going in these stocks I mean people just saw the momentum and everybody wanted uh you know these shutdown you know lockdown plays and so all the money was just going to these stocks and since they were going up the momentum attracted even more money which kept the momentum going and so everything kind of hit new highs in that Mania and at the time I looked at what was going on and I said this has got to be the end of it this has got to be the blow off top not only for the bull market but for the bubble because normally when you have a a long bull market like the one we had which becomes a bubble it ends in some spectacular melt up right a blowout and that's really what we had in 2021 with the new highs in in these Fang stocks as well as the interest in meme stocks and and nfts and cryptocurrencies I think all that hit hit ahead in 2021 and and now you know the air is coming out of these bubbles
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