저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2022년 인플레이션은 하락 예상하나 CPI 후행성·임금 상승으로 높게 유지될 수 있음. 소비자 부채·추가 지출 여력 감소로 2022년 하반기(Q2~Q3 이후) 소비 둔화 가능. 부채 확대 후 대출기준 완화가 버블을 만들고, 금리 상승 시 붕괴 위험. 현재는 버블이 아니라 밸류에이션이 높은 상태로 보며 2022년 상반기는 낙관적. S&P500은 1999~2013년 사이 장기 횡보 사례를 언급하며 주의 환기.
다듬은 글
today's video is sponsored by moomoo more on them in a moment check the link down below in the meantime hey everyone meet kevin here so it's usually on days like today that i post a video like a warning to investors but because the market is green most people think that i'm just trying to fudd stocks to make them go lower because i have shorts and well i want to make tendees off the shorts and because i'm a shill and bought by the hedges well then naturally i'm losing money when the market's going up and the market is going up indices are up lots of stocks are up toast is up bitcoin's up tesla's up pretty much everything's up well i hate to burst those heaters bubble but i have no short positions i'm not bought by the hedges and i'm not wearing a suit either folks in this video i we've sincerely got to talk about a conservative mind that could really start blowing up in 2022 and could be a long-term concern for us investing going forward that what we're feeling in the market right now might be a temporary euphoria again but there could be larger issues at play and that's what we're going to talk about starting right after i mentioned that hey in two days the coupon code for the amazing programs of building your wealth expires your lifetime access to the content daily market live streams with me you can ask me about your thesis we go back and forth on it uh we've got an amazing group of folks and i really think you'll love the fact that you pay once and there's no upsell you get lifetime access the price does go up over time though so you're better off at joining earlier check out that coupon code linked down below okay let's get into this so here's the thing we've got to talk about inflation only just to get it out of the way because there's a more important issue at play that we have to talk about inflation is very much expected to go down in 2022 i highly expect it to go down the fed believes it'll go down to two and a half percent but i expect about 50 to 60 percent of you watching this video don't believe a word the federal reserve says that so so that's okay the market itself might be a better estimate for you the market believes that inflation is going to go down by the end of 2022 to 2.6 to 3 so we've got this alignment myself the market the federal reserve not that i'm trying to align myself with being an equal status as to one of those but but we together there's this agreement that inflation should go down substantially in 2022 which is good right yes but there's a bigger warning see uh we're gonna finish this thought on inflation and we're gonna talk about this bigger problem we do know that the one thing that is actually expected to keep inflation higher is something that we know is higher than it's actually being measured by the cpi right now you do have a lot of people who called cpi a scam for this but it's so well known that economists actually already anticipate that housing for example is and wages are going to be lagging indicators so see when they calculate the cpi they use this weird thing called owner's equivalent rents uh but owner's equivalent rents are not aren't necessarily what market rents are but on top of that because it's difficult to just go around and survey all the properties that are on the market because we don't know if they're renting right away or whatever usually what happens is people's expectations of their rents going up goes up slowly over time because it takes time for people's leases to expire other properties to get rented and then the market to go oh wow okay that's the market value for rents now and then rents slowly start going up even though you might not be able to rent a property today at what the cpi thinks inflation is today it's purposefully designed as a lagging indicator and it's important to know that so like when i look at the cpi i don't just go off scam fraud i i don't think it's perfect by any means but i look at it and go okay i understand that's going to be a lagging win so to speak that is going to keep inflation a little bit higher along with wages cpi is not really good at tracking wage price growth so both of these things together are going to create this this wind that is going to keep inflation propped up or maybe this this foundation where we're not going to fall below or potentially to the federal reserve's inflation targets in 2022 or potentially even 2023 so these these are concerns and the only reason this matters is because if inflation doesn't go down quickly enough we think the federal reserve might potentially be overly aggressive in raising rates and this is what's going to create a really interesting dynamic in the market see one of the reasons that inflation is continuing to go up the way it is because everybody just says yes i say just do it in other words whatever the price is i'll pay it and i'm not talking about wealthy people either i'm talking about normal americans every single day are just paying the higher prices nike is cheering the fact that they are having to mark down product less they are cheering the fact that they're selling more of their products at full freaking pop people ain't even waiting for the coupon and chipotle is bragging about how their input costs did not go up like their meat and their rice even though we've seen a lot of meat inflation the grocery store chipotle is bragging about how their meat and their you know wheat prices their meat and wheat price haven't been going up but their prices have been going up on what they're selling their product for because they can this is really important because really what it means is prices and this inflation keep going up and i'm not to try to confuse this and say that all inflation is caused by this right this would just be more consumer price focused i know we've got lots of inflation and materials and other aspects as well certainly trucking and services but that's more like producer price inflation here i'm more talking about consumer price inflation so prices are going up because people are saying yes and so what what i think about this is at some point and 2022 could be the beginning of this year people are going to look and realize oh crap i don't have the cash flow that i had in 2020 or 2021.
part of that is going to be because uh about 80 percent of the children in our country receive the child tax credit well their parents do and those are those are huge stimulus checks i mean that's a that's a fat stimulus check for every child that you have on top of all the other forms of stimulus that we've gotten like student loan forbearance a lot of millennials have student loans a lot of younger families with children student loans uh the the unemployment uh you still get unemployment there's still a lot of people on unemployment taking the child tax credit and student loan forbearance there are a lot of people who uh took home forbearance which i actually encouraged not initially i was skeptical at first but then i encouraged uh and uh you can now or or you could potentially already have refinanced your mortgage forbearance from a 30-year fixed into a 40-year fixed which just lowers your monthly payment and extends how long you're going to pay for it so all of these things together in 2021 have really empowered consumers and and this isn't even like when we think about stimulus we're like ah come on there hasn't been a stimulus check in a long time it's not true like people are this this tax filing season in april between february and april people are still gonna get half of their child tax credit for 2021 in a lump sum check and so some families are gonna be getting five to ten thousand dollars depending on how many children they have right uh so the stimulus is still getting pumped but that is coming to an end this mortgage uh extension that joe biden just did pushing out or sorry student loan forbearance extension through through may that is going to come to an end all these things are going to come to an end and in my opinion people are going to stop saying yes at some point people are going to stop saying yes this is going to cause a few things to happen in the economy but first a quick message from our sponsor i'm really excited to tell you about 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check out that link down below and get your up to five free stocks this is going to cause a few things to happen in the economy first of all businesses are going to get nervous when sales numbers start going down and companies eventually have to start providing lower forecasts i think we're going to have good forecasts for q4 here i think q4 is going to be good can be spread out spending we're not going to have that huge spike that we saw on black friday but people still feel pretty lofty i think uh q1 probably going to be pretty great for consumers people are gonna have spent we're gonna see nice beats at companies i'm optimistic about the next two quarters but this video is really more broadly about 2022 in total i think come q23 of 2022 we're going to see some frustration with consumers that i just don't have as much money as i did i'm not as flush with cash as i was and i got to spend less and so we're going to rotate to a direction of frugality it took a lot longer than i expected but i i think we are going to go into a direction of reality companies are embarrassed generally to report that there's an inflection point in their sales because when there's an inflection point in their sales the market doesn't look at the company like nike and let's say nike sales started rotating down the market doesn't look at nike and goes don't worry it's not your fault it's the consumers being frugal they look and go dude do we need a new ceo you know what i mean like companies are going to look at this and they're going to get embarrassed this in my opinion is going to force more creative brand advertising and just more advertising in general maybe not immediately i don't think it's like oh january 1 everybody's advertising more probably q2 q3 at the same time i do think there are going to be a lot of individual consumers who are like crap i really got to stop spending but i want to because i want to keep up with the joneses you know this is just more of a bias i i like the feeling of spending what can i do to spend more i could go into debt more oh but wait if i'm already maxed out on my credit cards what do i do buy now pay later so i think buy now pay later is going to be a big profitability sector going forward but we've got regulators you know oh no if regulators are looking at buy now pay later are they going to say no stay tuned i'm going to give you my expectation of what regulators are going to do and how we're actually going to potentially sow the seeds of the next bubble not just in stocks but also in real estate and i think crypto will just be along for the ride uh unless of course there's a separate uh crypto issue maybe related to stable coins or some other stupid fud whatever but i want you to be aware of how we can actually sow the seeds of the next bubble that is right now i don't believe we're in a bubble i do believe that valuations are elevated but i sit behind a computer screen or a newspaper for 10 hours a day every single day plus all the other work that i do and so yeah it's possible i could be wrong but at least from what i'm seeing right now reading everything and just condensing everything in this one little sentence here i don't think we're in a bubble right now but i think we could be sowing the seeds of a bubble and i'll show you exactly how that'll work so here's what happens inflation takes longer to go down maybe rates then move up either as expected or slightly faster than expected we see interest rates of one to one and a half percent two percent that's not going to be that big of a deal for mortgages because i think what's going to happen is uh we're going to see the 10 and 15 year fixed rate mortgages stay somewhat stable and and maybe slowly move up but i don't think they're going to one for one move up with the federal funds rate uh that's because a they don't they align more with treasury yields than the fed's funds rate there's a separate market for mortgage rates right mortgage-backed securities and so on uh and two what really can happen when fed the fed funds rates goes up a fed funds rate goes up is you just have a compression in the amount of money that banks can make the spread goes down banks get more competitive for lending right so you don't necessarily have to see mortgage rates go up substantially but you will see spreads tighten and mortgage rates go up somewhat okay so what happens when mortgage rates go up somewhat people have less cash and maybe they're maxing out their credit cards they're like oh crap okay well this sucks you can't buy as much anymore well the first thing that naturally happens is consumer activity goes down people reef and then the next thing that happens well potentially at the same time is people refinance less which doing refinances is really interesting see in 2020 we refine cash out refinancing activity fell to its lowest levels it was like 30 of refinances were cash out what that means is somebody goes and says to their bank hey i have a i don't know 500 000 house i only owe 200 000 on it can i take out two hundred thousand dollars of cash to do whatever the hell i want with it and then just leave a hundred thousand dollars of equity and the banks are usually like yeah let's go so in 2020 we only saw thirty percent of refinances take cash out now we're seeing like 70 percent of people take cash out so i think we've already started to see this transition where people are expanding their use of debt already to do whatever they can to keep that spending going but there's a problem and the problem is once you get to max credit card levels you've used your buy now pay later and uh oh i can't refinance anymore because either i can't qualify or home prices aren't going up anymore because we're we've got a little bit of a headwind that interest rates went up a little bit again not as much as the fed but now all of a sudden that puts a little bit of a lid or a headwind against real estate prices so what happens it doesn't make sense for people to refinance anymore because there's there's nothing to tap anymore like you've already used the money and spent it and this is one of the sad things people do is they'll refinance their house and then they'll be like oh i have 200 000 all right i'm buying a new car i'm buying a boat you know people go spending like crazy so anyway this is where at the same time as businesses potentially start noticing an inflection point in consumer spending we could also see the government regulators and lending companies together it generally takes everyone together oh we could start seeing a loosening of credit standards and this is where where the bubble really begins see the government doesn't want to see lower spending going into an election because it looks bad banks want to be able to lend more money but if they can't because the banking requirements are too tight and nobody's getting refinances anymore and they complain to regulators that hey our lending system is too tight we gotta loosen otherwise we can't stay in business then all of a sudden regulators banks and lending companies get together and say you know what let's let people have more debt on their credit cards let's actually legalize buy now pay later and just require some disclosures but let me use buy an app later and i mean not that it's illegal now but but look there's there are regulatory questions around it right now what i mean is like let's rubber stamp buy now pay later right yep no no you're good so loosening of credit standards loosening of auto loan standards loosening of buy now pay later standards and then folks loosening of mortgage standards that is when we really create the bubble because now what happens is the people who are much less qualified to take on more debt take on more debt from real estate credit cards buy now pay later and auto loans just because so that way they can spend more money on stuff to give a little bit of an extra boost and you know what we create at that point that's where we create a bubble look at lending standards so take a look at this first it's worth noting that right now we're not there in my opinion one of the reasons we're not there is because look at this household debt service payments so what you're paying in interest as a percentage of disposable income we're we're pretty dang low we are well lower than anywhere we were between 2012 honestly anywhere we have been in really like the last 30 years which is insane 30 to 40 years here we're at the lowest levels ever so watch this potentially go up but this in my opinion only goes up as we start seeing a a a reduction in lending standards this here is the number of banks tightening credit standards and so when you have a negative number it implies loosening or not tightening and we've already started to see a tighten or a substantial loosening of credit standards and that's because when you go into a recession the first thing banks like to do is freeze credit lines and freeze uh lending right so credit standards go way up but that's starting to plummet already auto loans are already starting to see a little bit of a plummet but this could be nominal and we can continue to see both auto loan standards credit card standards plummet even more so we want to pay attention to this being a negative here so household debt not substantially high right now manageable i mean according to history very very manageable where we are right now this is despite the fact that margin is at record highs then we have uh business and corporate debt at elevated levels but we're at the lowest levels of uh of of uh defaults that we've seen in in a very very long time i mean certainly since uh before the pandemic we're at the lowest levels that we've been seeing so we're good right now tentatively on debt but once we start seeing this inflation linger a little longer federal funds rates getting pushed up compressing the amount of liquidity we have in the markets because companies are investing less potentially because rates are a little higher they've done their investing already or consumers are are starting to run out of cash the next natural phase of a bubble is a loosening of standards when you get a loosening of standards what you're really doing is you're creating an evergrand i kid you not and it can go fast in august of 2020 uh well i should say before august of 2020 the chinese government for years said please real estate companies take on as much debt as you can we need to build lots of housing we need to build these ghost cities to be prepared for this big population boom please take out more than 100 debt i don't care what you got to do take out lots of debt uh just build and that's what companies did and what that happens is as you create a real debt bubble and now all of a sudden asset valuations really bubble up the dangerous inflection point is when institutions and governments start noticing defaults or you start noticing banks noticing the defaults and then they start tightening credit standards again you start seeing that that tightening level go up a little bit and it doesn't take much but even just a little bit of an inflection point is a sign that uh oh we're potentially heading into the ouchy period look at this you saw the more tightening of credit standards in 2018 2019 leading into the pandemic a little you certainly saw credit standards increase at the end of 2017.
they're always too late by the way you know right before the dot-com bubble we kind of saw credit standards start going up a little bit they're usually too late with how they react but once the tap turns off like it does with evergrand now you have people potentially over saturated with debt and that is when you see a real bubble collapse in my opinion bubbles collapse or pop sticking with a theme of a bubble when people are way over leveraged and the tap stops that's when we have a really big bubble that's when we have a real estate crash that is when we have a real stock market crash and that's potentially where we end up trading sideways for a very very long time now this i don't want to fear monger this but i want to make everybody aware of this because it's something in my opinion every investor should be aware of because everybody's always you know by the dip and buy and huddle or whatever look at the s p 500 okay you zoom out on the s p 500 we are at obviously essentially all-time highs here uh plus or minus a few days whatever right but we're basically at all-time highs beyond that we take a look at this right here we if you invested over here anywhere around the middle of 1999 to the middle of 2001 before the dot-com bubble popped if you invested at any point here let's say you invested oh what is this this is uh march of 1999 okay you invested during this time you would have been negative until about 2006 and you would have that that's basically break even so you would have been your stocks would have done nothing basically for seven years okay and then if you held on while it was slightly green it was finally boom time then you hit the 2008 recession and it took you a total of about 13 years to basically break even on your stocks that's insane like your options could bankrupt you if you were just like heavy in options through this worth noting that of my portfolio here i'll just show you really quick so of my portfolio i've got here we go we've got 900 almost a million in crypto we've got stocks we're sitting at about 30 uh options we're sitting at this is in the course member uh section by the way any course member can just look at the whole spreadsheet options at about 7.75 so my exposure to options and crypto crypto i want to bump up a little bit i'm probably going to get that closer to 10 uh as as i find opportunities but uh options i'm definitely keeping a little bit low uh and i'm trying to go long on shares but i also got to get out of margin i'm about three mil in margin right now so i got to work on that i want to get that down again uh hoping hoping that we do have uh a nice rally going into q1 of 2022 but uh yeah folks look even if you invested over here in like 2007 and you just pulled this out i mean you were upside down for for six years potentially so stocks don't only always go up and when we're at the tip of the curve here at the same time as we're trying to understand what what is going to happen with inflation and the fed and all this stuff i think it's very useful to look at all of our markets very broadly and say we've got to be careful about the one thing in my opinion that can just destroy everything and that is rates uh and uh the debt problem mostly the death bubble if we get an inflection in the debt bubble first we're going to get this massive loosening and potential bubbling and then an explosion and this potential loosening happens slowly it creeps up on you and that's where you want to be careful right like it's easy to say oh we've got to go through the bubble first and then it'll pop and and i'll just get out while we're in the bubble phase it can sneak up on you like the slow inflating of the bubble can happen very very slowly and it could sneak up on you where all the sudden poof and then you end up with six to 13 years of nothingness right of the void but a lot of this in my opinion is spawned by a debt bubble if we have a debt bubble then we end up with a ray dalio style great reset i don't believe we're at a debt bubble now uh looking at real estate debt uh we are at the highest credit scores average credit score is like 760 highest credit scores are getting loans uh the the lowest debt to incomes for getting loans it's very difficult to get a real estate mortgage right now uh the standards are tight uh i think it's certainly become easier to get credit card debt it's become easier to get into uh uh auto loan debt but i think those standards could continue to worsen and buy now pay later can actually accelerate the cycle which will be boom time for buy now paid later companies but you don't want to be in the buy now pay later companies when the bubble pops because they're going to be holding the bag of all the debt so anyway these are my thoughts i am optimistic for the first half of 2022 i don't see a lot of negative catalysts although i could be blind so i'm always aware that i don't know and when i don't know i'm i'd continue to hunt and i'll continue to look but this is a very important message i believe that everybody should internalize and uh take advantage of just like you should also take advantage of that the price does go up i mean look sure there'll be another coupon code in the future but the price will be higher so when you apply the coupon code now versus then your then price will be higher it's always gonna be higher so keep that one okay thank you so much for being here folks i'll see you in the next one goodbye
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