저자: Kevin · 외국인
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오미크론은 대체로 경증이라는 연구들이 나와 공포가 과도했다는 입장. 여행주(크루즈·항공)가 이미 크게 반등했고 로테이션이 시작됐다고 봄. 오미크론 확산 정점이 빨라 팬데믹 종식 가능성과 인플레이션 완화를 기대. 다만 백신 미접종 인구와 항바이러스제 공급 한계는 여전히 우려로 언급.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here the rotation to travel stocks might be happening sooner than we suspect we're going to go ahead and look at what's going on with some of these travel stocks in just a moment but first let's go ahead and get through some of the updates that are creating the catalyst that we're seeing today so a first front-page news today was about multiple new studies coming out showing as expected that omicron is mostly more mild and this is what we've been expecting however the market has been creating a little bit more fear over omicron than is really justified this is something that we've broken down numerous times on the channel here that there the market was almost and has almost been looking for a reason to be more fearful than it really should be now here are some notes from the latest study so the latest study in scotland these are a summary of the doctor the one of the lead doctors on the study and here's a summary of their notes of what they thought about the study so they mentioned although they studied a small number the study is good news they found that two-thirds or they found a two-thirds reduction in hospitalization of double vaccinated young people compared to delta indicating that omicron should be much more mild for people they do say that there are a few things to bear in mind the study is rigorous but that it should be noted uh that it'll take more time and more data to really get the final results they also mentioned that the study was done early in the pandemic and focused on younger people this is early in the omicron pandemic and that the elderly of course are more vulnerable they mentioned that although a two-thirds reduction is significant omicron can cause severe illness in the doubly vaccinated and this was an interesting line here that they mentioned they say hey even though more broadly it's substantially good it is still possible to be severely ill with a double vaccine it's obviously not the best news for the vaccines but it's also worth noting that we also got news out of wall to read that we're expecting positive results on that spfn vaccine that 24 sided soccer ball style protein that'll introduce 24 different variants to you if you decide to take that military military-grade vaccine watch my video specifically on that if you want to learn more about that but that was also seen as a potentially another positive catalyst for travel stocks of course that we could have positive results fully reported within the next two weeks and we're expecting those results to be positive it's just going to be a matter of how positive they are for that new potential vaccine but regarding the study here regarding pfizer and and the other mrna uh double vaccinated vaccines it is still possible to get severely ill with the vaccine however you have a substantial reduction very significant reduction they do believe that omicron could continue to double every few days and that they do believe if it does that we could generate more hospitalizations than delta from a double vaccinated population even so so they're really proceeding here with cautious optimism they mentioned that the best news from their study is the observation that the booster is highly effective at reducing severe illness so if you want to reduce that chance of severe illness getting that booster highly important remember that booster is really helping you get to that 70 to 75 range in reducing the odds of having a severe case of of omicron which is huge pretty crudely they say we have more time to get people boosted but we can't waste a moment of it everything we can do as individuals to slow the spread gives us more time in my view there are now solid reasons to favor a more optimistic outcome of omicron in the united kingdom then was feared and none of this of course should diminish the lives that have been lost so uh this is important this is definitely a catalyst for a lot of companies that we're seeing right now uh especially for example the cruise line stocks up 3.46 percent today we've actually really started coming up since about thursday so we had a green day going into a friday we had about a seven percent run between friday and monday and then we've run a total of about 20 percent now since last thursday so in in six uh in six days we've run about 21 on the travel stocks it is worth noting though that we're still lower than where we have previously been if we zoom out onto the day chart uh on uh carnival cruise lines for example we do see some pain here going into the delta variant uh delta brought us down to somewhere around 2147 which is approximately where we're trading now right now we're trading at about 20 83 and after hours so still a little bit of a discount but we do see we've clearly jumped back over that 20 line for carnival cruise lines and we're seeing a lot of other recovery stocks behave very similarly whether it's the airlines or the cruise line so we're starting to see this rotation this study's news obviously very good this is what we were expecting especially after the uh the inflection point down in cases in south africa now it's worth noting that yeah even though we've seen an inflection point down in cases in south africa there are still concerns that different parts of south africa might be responding differently than more highly vaccinated or more highly exposed or previously exposed to covet areas and this is important to pay attention to because in the united states it's estimated that somewhere between 60 to 75 million individuals do not have either prior exposure to covet or a vaccine so this is in contrast to the expectation that over 90 plus percent of the individuals in south africa have either the vaccine or prior exposure to covet potentially making omicron less severe but that is exactly why this study today out of scotland with the oxford professors notes we just saw is so bullish for for recovery stocks and we're already seeing this recovery get priced in mostly because what we're seeing is hey look we a regardless of whether we have had prior exposure or not in our communities because the united kingdom does not have as much prior immunity like south africa either now the united kingdom has been great with vaccinations but still the study bullish and this is the kind of news that we've been seeing over the last couple days not only the inflection point to the downside in cases in south africa and hospitalizations remaining flat but the same kind of a thing now happening in the united kingdom and we're hoping that happens in the united states as well so overall good news and we're already starting to see stocks respond positively to this this in my opinion is a little bit sooner than expected i was expecting to continue to see a surge in omicron cases at the same time as hospitalizations rotating up because of lingering delta cases however now we're nearly 80 percent dominant with omicron cases in the united states which means we're likely to slow the amount of increased hospitalizations we see in the united states and even though prior waves have usually lasted about five months so we've had sort of five month waves of covid that have spread through different states at different times omicron might end up being here and gone much faster than previously believed we're expecting that new york city according to dr scott goblin today will peak around mid-january in terms of cases and that we might see other areas peak shortly thereafter as well like areas around seattle or various areas around the tri-state area around new york city all of them expected to potentially peak by mid-january and if these are right now are potentially the bulk of cases or we're not even necessarily testing the bulk of cases and catching them because folks aren't getting tested because they're mostly having relatively mild symptoms then maybe we might actually be vastly underreporting how much omicron there really is right now remember as of even two weeks ago in wastewater samples in florida in orange county we were realizing that wait a minute omicron is already dominant here maybe but we're not seeing that show up in testing yet but somewhat implies that much of our population may already be getting exposed to omicron without this coming up and testing so uh this is why over the last three days we've kind of started seeing a little bit of a u-turn in a recovery stocks earlier than expected the united kingdom's growth rate for cases is also slowing according to uh the the cuba tracker in the united kingdom that updates at 3 pm london a local time daily we're up from 80 000 cases last week to about 140 thousand cases now that's still under reported on some websites but if you look at the zokov tracker zoe cover tracker uh which might be pronounced zoe in the united kingdom uh we we've seen cases go to about 140 000 but the rate actually hasn't been that strong we've been fearful about this doubling rate of coven but four days ago we were at 121 cases 121 000 cases in the united kingdom right now we're at 140 000 cases so either omicron is spreading at a doubling rate and we're just not tracking all of these or omicron is actually spreading slower than expected which is also reiterating that good news for recovery stocks now according to a study by oregon health and a science university breakthrough covet cases do tend to generate a very enhanced immune response the study found that antibodies from blood samples of breakthrough cases which were as much as 1 000 times more effective than antibodies generated by the pfizer vaccine two weeks after the second dose so what this is really telling us is that if you do end up getting omicron your your body's lingering response can actually be very very strong after your infection to potentially future variants so this is very good news it's almost kind of like hey if you get omicron and all of a sudden you have a 1 000 percent increase in in antibodies compared to a double vaccine dose of pfizer it shows that natural immunity is is potentially going to give us the strength to power through any potential new variants that come up and if we get to herd immunity with something like omicron then this turns into that official nothing burger and uh we we go back to normal uh and we take away omicron as a as and potentially even the pandemic as as a catalyst for markets to be nervous and given that there's a lot of fear around pandemics creating supply chain delays leading to inflation uh and potentially uh pandemics leading to more fiscal stimulus or even monetary stimulus leading to more inflation fears as well then if we take away the pandemic as a catalyst we we could potentially finally start seeing inflation rotate back down to normal expected levels uh somewhere between two and three percent by the end of 2023 uh considering of course that we're going to still see housing inflation and wage inflation but overall we could actually be on a good trajectory for the market so i think it's a reason to be optimistic now health officials do say that as of saturday we're at a 93 dominance we do think that this is about 80 now as i've already mentioned the world health organization director general called for the public to cancel upcoming events due to omicron i honestly don't think most people are taking that very seriously in the united states with the exception of a new york city where you are seeing a lot of events getting cancelled on tuesday joe biden mentioned that he's going to take a look at another travel ban to or or look take a look at his existing travel bans to south africa and seven other countries saying that the travel ban was necessary when they didn't have much information but now we're past that and he's expecting to potentially lift this travel ban he also announced on tuesday the purchase of 500 500 million at home rapid covet 19 tests and what they expect is that this should serve about four tests per household and they're going to announce some form of a website where we'll be able to order these honestly by the time we actually get these i wouldn't be surprised if it's somewhere around mid-january and we kind of start hopefully ushering in the end of the pandemic unless of course we get some other bizarre new variant or some other garbage that i don't even want to think about right now according to nbc also uh dr fauci mentioned that the omicron variant will almost certainly account for 100 of cases within about the next week to two so potentially by the end of the year we could be all omicron which at the moment is indicating uh that i mean this this this is expected to be very good news south africa's cases have dropped uh uh from a high of 27 000 cases the numbers dropped to about 15 400 as of uh the last count now bloomberg is also reporting that the drop in cases may be to less maybe due to less testing because uh on the day they reported a 44 a drop in cases 29 29.9 of a test analyzed returned positive similar to that 30.7 of positive tests uh the day before then uh we also have the australian prime minister mentioning that despite large increases in new cases they have not seen a significant impact on their hospitals which is very very good this is uh this is excellent they've been incredibly strict of four lockdowns with big consequences for breaching the rules we saw a lot of police interventions uh questionable behavior by police especially against protesters like instances of people walking their local park or or out of uh or out on a walk from work in the morning and then being tackled or man there's been a lot of drama in australia about this i don't really want to take a political position on this but there's been a lot of drama on this uh then on top of this we also had excellent news that uh well first of all the not so good news is we know that merck's uh covet pill is not anywhere near as effective in reducing the risk of hospitalization and death as a pfizer's pill mark's pill is only about 30 effective remember that red pill we've talked about on the channel however pfizer's covered 19 pill shows that it's 90 effective the pill now has fda approval which allows doctors to prescribe the medicine to anyone 12 and older who's considered high risk the pill targets individuals who have just gotten sick so should be taken as soon as you notice symptoms the pill is called paxlovit tens of thousands of packs of pills are reported to be ready to go in pfizer's warehouse the pill is substantially effective as long as you take the pill within three days of your onset of symptoms with omicron surging there are some concerns we might run out of a supply of this this drug though and that's unfortunately because the active ingredients within this pill can take somewhere around six months to actually manufacture and put together and so there there is sometimes even up to eight months so there is the potential that we're not going to have as many of these as potentially necessary advisors looking to produce 3.6 billion of these tablets next year you do have to take the pills uh they're sort of like a pill box which contains 30 tablets over a five day period uh they're making 3.6 billion tablets of them so so we should have quite a few of these available for for individuals however it's going to take time by january of 2022 they're trying to get to 50 million packs which is nice but again honestly by the time we actually get these distributed hopefully omicron has uh uh become uh has continued to prove to be mild continue to uh prove to be uh something that uh maybe even ushers in the end of the pandemic and uh hopefully this all comes to an end so there we go that is the news on omicron i think it's uh mostly positive news and i appreciate you expiring at
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