저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준의 100bp 금리인상 가능성과 이에 따른 경기침체·디플레이션 논쟁을 다룸. 소비·임금 등 미국 펀더멘털은 견조하나 유럽·중국 침체가 인플레를 낮출 수 있다고 주장. 주택건설 감소로 임대료 인플레 우려를 언급하며 집값 하락(2023 하반기~2024 매수 기회)을 예상. 나스닥(QQQ) 하방 시나리오를 터미널레이트별로 제시하나 기대인플레 하락 근거로 '페이퍼 리세션' 후 주식 매수 기회를 강조. 자신이 운영하는 부동산 투자 사업 홍보 포함.
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complete disaster talk about alternative SC oh just wait until you hear about alternative see concerns about how much the Market's going to fall how are we going to handle the triple threat of an energy crisis in Europe Chinese lockdowns and aggressive tightening like here in the US are we getting 100 BPS or 75 what do developers have to do with the Federal Reserve and what new issues does that bring up and what's all this talk about fed 2025 as well as are we going into a recession are we in one are we going into depression we are in a synchronous Global slowdown even to the point that FedEx is now warning of a global recession with prices of cardboard plummeting so much so that homeless in California are finally finding shelter and no while that is a bad joke the bad joke is actually California but this isn't political video this is a critically important video for you to consider regarding the Federal Reserve we're going to talk about a lot of what I just teased three very quick notes and we'll get started to invest with me in my startup you get founder shares make sure to read the PPM because this is not a solicitation number two wan or stocks or entrepreneurship go to metcaven.com and join and number three this video is brought to you by MooMoo but more on them later now let's get into some new information earlier this week we received news that inflation had been expanding significantly more broadly than expected and this is leading to new calls for the Federal Reserve to take an approach known as shock and awe basically to many Paul vulcros don't worry if you don't know the Paul volcker reference the point is to basically beat us up and raise interest rates more and cause more pain in the markets and pain in the markets is exactly what we're seeing and the best way to measure that everything is rising that prices are broadly going up which is very dangerous for the Federal Reserve will is by doing this you get a chart that base basically subtracts food shelter energy used cars and trucks basically almost everything right but then it leaves all of the miscellaneous items and what do you have you have inflation that is still rising and that's kind of scary and so it's leading to a lot of talk of that on September 21st the Federal Reserve is going to beat us up with a 100 basis point hike a 100 basis point hike in interest rates is a one percent hike and it has not been done since the 1980s when fed a chair of volcker essentially rug pulled markets and raised interest rates above the level of inflation right now we're a two and a half percent in interest rates and inflation is 8.3 percent imagine bringing rates above that it would cause massive panic and panic is exactly why a lot of folks are saying there's no way the FED is going to do a 100 basis point hike see you have to remember this the Federal Reserve Works through words they do very little in the way of action that is unexpected in other words when they want to do something they send a quick little text to the Wall Street Journal and leak it and they'd use words or speeches or a TV appearances to basically coax the market into expecting what the FED wants so if the FED wants to pause they start leaving those hints the market picks it up the market rallies If the Fed wants the market to cool and relax they start leaving hints that more tightening is coming and that's exactly what we've gotten because as this last inflationary report showed more broad levels of inflation we're now expecting with almost certainty that we're going to get at least a 75 basis point hike presently markets are pricing in at 83 percent chance we're going to see a 75 basis point hike but what about this idea of a shock and awe that what we really need to do is just rug pull the market and make sure we raise rates immediately with a one percent rate hike so that way the FED can finally restore or some of its credibility because clearly they've fallen so far behind inflation that anything they do is too little and there are individuals who argue this on both aside ad nauseum in fact you have individuals like Kathy Wood and Elon Musk are chiming in on this and this gets quite interesting here Kathy would replied to Elon Musk who six days ago wrote a major Fed rate height risks deflation and now this is a really interesting argument because clearly we're in a situation of broad-based inflation right now why would Elon Musk say we risk deflation and where's Kathy's head on this well first the reason Elon suggests that we might risk deflation is and this is really really weird but every time the FED does something it's kind of like they're taking a rope and whipping that rope and so the motion of them whipping the Rope by raising interest rates looks very small at this end you know it'd be about you know maybe a 12 inch move here right that looks relatively small but at the end of the rope that could be whiplashing at you know a three foot or six foot distance the point here is to say that over time the impact of the federal reserve's actions are really Amplified so they if they want to have a small impact at the other end they got to do small Strokes right and this becomes really important because what Elon is alluding to is the fact that if the FED goes too shock and awe-ish in the short term because they're trying to convince markets no no we still have credibility don't worry we're over inflation is transitory it's okay it's okay we realize we messed up you know it's kind of a mix of Janet Yellen and someone else I don't know leave a comment down below but anyway then then sure the FED would get credibility now but they they would cause so much tightening over the medium to longer term the next six to 24 months that we could actually push our entire United States economy into a depression at that point you would forget about recession you would be in a depression and if you're in a depression well now guess what the FED has to do again take out the money printer again burn send stimmy checks again because they've over tightened on the economy and it's really important to know that we don't want the FED to go hard now because they're going to wreck us in the future and this is why we haven't seen the Paul volckering yet right raising rates to the level of where inflation is because we expect inflation is trending down and this is it exactly what is typified or exemplified I should say by Kathy Wood who by the way follows me on Twitter follow her as well shout out to Kathy's super honored but when we got here deflation is in the pipeline it says Kathy Wood she says that the heading for both the producer price indices the Consumer Price Index the personal consumption expenditures deflator which is basically the CPI version that the FED uses it's pretty similar small differences anyway uh from post covet Peak prices have resulted in Lumber being down 60 copper down 35 percent which is an industrial metal when this Falls we tend to indicate that we might be going into recession oil down 30 heavily because of China iron ore down 60 also heavily because of China less real estate development in China means iron ore goes down dram down 46 that is an index that tracks chip prices for memory cards corn down 17 Baltic Freight rates down 79 this is true container prices have collapsed but they're still way higher than they were before the pandemic even though we went from like twenty thousand dollars a container to like six thousand dollars a container from China to the United States to like California or Long Beach uh you know it's still like 3x what it used to be which would be like two thousand dollars so even though 79 sounds like a big drop it's still kind of like oh dang we still got problems hey gold down 17 silver down 39 okay got it okay now Kathy Wood does continue uh her discussion a little bit so we'll just quickly take a look at this as measured by the Manheim used index we see used car prices down uh four percent that's about a 50 annual rate what she did there she just multiplied four percent by 12 right and they've dropped 10 since peaking in January uh now she is you using this as a way to suggest that electric vehicles are causing this disruption when in my opinion the reality here is that used car prices just exploded because there was a shortage of cars after we started reopening in 2021 shortage of chips to manufacture new cars so used cars became more expensive so I can't really pin this only solely on electric vehicles even though I want to okay and then she talks a little bit more about this uh which of course Elon Musk replies to exactly this is neither a subtle or a secret all of this happening here so anyway okay so all of this is to say that on one side yes you have people who say fed be credible but on the other side people say but if you're too credible you're going to wreck our economy don't do it our economy in the United States is still really strong don't destroy that retail sales numbers were just revised up for last month the consumer has more money than they did before the pandemic yeah Consumer Credit expend is going up but consumer savings are also Rising again following a dip in the summer so you're kind of in this really remarkable place where America is actually really really strong and we're not not really facing this potential apocalyptic crisis in the United States but we do face this massive anchor of both Europe and China likely going into a very deep and extended recession if not depression which on one hand is actually good for inflation because less spending over there whether it's on Energy Products or just materials in general will help bring inflation down it's actually kind of like Europe and China Could Be the Anchor to bring inflation down to the United States think about that for a moment pretty remarkable now there are some really important things that we have to consider about this 100 basis point hike including something that has to do with developers and we're going to talk about that because it's so so critical right after I mention our sponsor for this video and no this time it's not me with the courses linked down below and the programs on building your wealth which are amazing with me in the private live streams every day the market is open it is from MooMoo oh hey have I told you about an amazing stock trading platform called MooMoo MooMoo offers countless amazing features that help you take your trading game to the next level sign up in my link down below and you can get up to 13 totally free stocks when you sign up using my link Down Below on top of that you'll get one exclusive Bank of America stock when you complete a net deposit of two thousand dollars for the first time in December and only when you sign up using my link down below now what's really cool about that folks that's 34 bucks totally for free on top of the other stocks that you'll be getting check it out link below so now let's talk about the fed and real estate developers okay this is a new one and this is really really cool so here's the thing that happens when the FED raises rates very aggressively what they actually do is they increase the price of wholesale credit lines for Real Estate developers basically it gets harder for Real Estate developers to build stuff okay that reduces building starts which what numbers have been coming in under expectation and poorly recently building starts in other words Builders are building less homes and when you build less homes you reduce the availability of the housing stock this has a double effect for the FED which is extremely important the SE obvious and the second one is more important let me just get the first out of the way okay because I know what you might already be thinking the first is that obviously if you reduce inventory for sale of housing you could potentially increase prices for housing right potentially but this is more than offset by the fact that mortgage rates have risen and removed about 35 percent of buyer purchasing power from the market and it's why home prices are actually trending down now not up we're already down five and a half percent nationally we'll probably be down 10 to 15 percent or more by March and April of 2023 and that's probably when the real fear is going to happen in the housing market so be prepared for buying deals in the second half of 2023 and 2024 and that's exactly why I'm launching house hack which is expecting to scale my famous wedge deal model and to hopefully a multi-billion Dollar business to compete with the likes of American homes for rent Open Door Redfin and Invitation Homes and I have good news for invest today at househack.com and we're starting the process to make sure we can get non-accredited investors involved as well so if you're not accredited don't worry just stand by I'm listening to all your comments I want to get you involved on this so just stay tuned that's about a five month process really hard with the SEC but we're working on it but the more important danger out of all of this is actually what happens to potentially rents with developers see when developers build less homes and there's less available rental property stock then we push inflation on to rents not only do we push inflation onto rents when developers are able to build less homes and so we're pushing up rent prices but you also push up around prices when less people can buy homes because now they're renting so you have less people buying more people renting and then less homes available for rent another reason prices for rents go up and this actually drives inflation up inflation or well inflation by rents right and the biggest contributor to inflation is housing anywhere between 25 to 32 percent depending on which measure you're using CPI PC it's a big problem so rental inflation going forward is a big deal and because of this developer credit line issue you potentially have the FED looking and saying you know what we need to stick with 75.
let's not go for 100 because if we go for 100 it's going to be too big of a whiplash and we're going to push us into depression and we're going to be causing other problems like the rental problem now keep in mind the FED could make the decision that at some point in the future they have to restore that credibility inflation is just not trending down and they'll give us the big one in fact remember in January we were talking about oh man is the Fed gonna do 0 or 25 in March we got 25 then 50 became the new 25 then 75 became the new 50 and then now we're talking about 100 as if it's going to become the new 75 so while anything is possible we've not had 100 basis point hikes since the 1980s and uh I don't really think it's likely at least not at this point it's only about 17 likely but markets are already starting to price this in and this brings us to part three retuning the curve see the Federal Reserve has a terminal of federal funds rate uh expectation right now of about two points or sorry 3.75 to 4 that means at some point in 2023 we expect to get to about 3.75 to 4 percent well what if that ends up being higher when the Federal Reserve next releases their next summary of economic projections which is coming out on September 21st and guess what in that summary of economic projections we're going to see what the Federal Reserve thinks their terminal rate is going to be that new sep will also project all the way into 2025.
it is the first step that projects into 2025. right now markets think the fed's going to be at 3.75 to 4 however if that terminal rate comes out to be higher we could see some depression in stock prices if the terminal rate ends up coming out to be something even higher in the long term we could see even more pain to stock market pricing in fact let me give you a little bit of a guide and clarify a little bit of what I mean by just showing it to you so this is a chart of the NASDAQ and what I believe is that where we sit right now with this temporary pain is markets actually starting to price in the potential risk that the FED is going to increase their terminal rate so I think where we sit right here at QQQ 288 is roughly equal to about a 4.25 to 4.5 percent terminal Fed rate I think over here was an overextension this 270 level-ish for QQQ NASDAQ right I think that is more similar to like a 4.75 to 5 terminal Fed rate and I think that this yellow line over here is representative of a Fed wanting to be around 3.5 to 3.75 and then you turning down soon into the future now the problem with the Federal Reserve you turning and this idea that they're going to pause and U-turn is that I actually personally don't believe that the Federal Reserve is going to U-turn anytime soon keep in mind when I say personally I say that because even though I've passed the financial advisor test and I'm going to be a licensed financial advisor within the next few weeks or at least I expect to be I can't give you Financial advice so when I say something's my opinion it's coming from in my opinion a great place but it's just an opinion I could be wrong right so what do we have right here well this right now represents the expectation of the market today and it's that the market thinks that we are going to see the terminal rate be about 4.5 percent right here for the federal funds rate four and a half percent and that the Federal Reserve will start reducing interest rates in May of next year I personally do not believe that'll be true I personally believe the Federal Reserve will actually maintain this position for much of if not all of 2023 and even if that extends to November this difference that you see over here in purple on the right side there that difference will mean there's going to be some more pain that we have to price in so we'll have to flatten this out you probably send more pain to the market so very quick summary okay market right now is expecting a terminal rate of 4.5 I want to update that from making sure I clarify that from what I said earlier 4.5 is the current terminal rate you could write that down the terminal rate goes up expect the QQQ to go back to 270.
4.5 percent terminal rate QQQ 290. four percent terminal rate QQQ maybe 320. you can write those things down you can't take them to the bank because they're just words but you could write them down because I think they're a useful guide for what we could be faced with but what's most important going forward here sure we're going to get this SCP we might even get some phraseology that says things are going to be higher for longer some signaling from the FED then things are going to be restrictive for some time but what's most important are the following two things markets expectations of inflation measured by these two charts number one is this this is a chart of the five year Break Even which gives us a chart of people's emotions their expectations of what inflation will do in about four months notice how this peaked in March and we got peak in about June and July in terms of inflation so you can see that Peak was correct it's just it shows up in the reports later well if that remains to be true which historically it has been then we should see inflation Trend down very very nicely in fact I'm just going to hide myself for a moment look at this even with the latest drama over the last few weeks that five-year inflation expectations are going down not up they're volatile they're bumpy but they're going down and not up and on top of that we just had a University of Michigan release this morning that suggested that inflation expectations for one year stayed stable at 4.6 percent as expected but we had an unexpected drop from 2.9 percent for 5 to 10 year inflation expectations down to 2.8 so if you're an investor who's investing based on expectations of inflation which are very very powerful you don't have to in my opinion worry so much about alternative C alternative C is the presentation that is known as the hawkish presentation that is given to the Federal Reserve at their meetings a is generally dovish B is generally neutral C is generally hawkish right now alternative C appears to have a 17 chance and if you believe in expectations as the FED does we're probably not going to have to worry about alternative C instead in the United States at least we're going to be dealing with a paper recession now you know me I've been talking about this potential for a paper recession since January and while I don't do things perfectly I've been talking about this paper recession coming and talking about how in my opinion when we look back in a couple years we're gonna go dang wish I invested more during that recession into the stock market but don't worry you'll have time to get into real estate because that Pain's coming in 2023 and 20 24 maybe even into 2025 and while this is not a solicitation the PPM is make sure you go to househack.com to consider investing with me and click the link at the top of the comments and the description down below to sign up for the investor q a live stream we have coming up this Sunday thanks so much goodbye
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