Fed's neutral rate could be between 3.5-4%: Jeremy Siegel

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Siegel은 트럼프 관세의 규모가 시장 우려만큼 크지 않을 것으로 보며, 미국 경제는 3% 근접 실질 GDP 성장 등 강한 모멘텀을 보인다고 평가한다. 테크/Mag7 주식은 모멘텀 매수세가 몰린 과열 상태였고 연준 발표 후 급락하며 건강한 조정이 나타났다고 본다. 중립금리는 3.5~4%로 추정하며, 현재 금리 4.33%는 여전히 제약적이지만 중립에 가까워졌다고 말한다.

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01. we have absolutely no idea the extent of the tariffs uh we do recall eight years ago president uh Trump in his first term promised sweeping tariffs uh and we did Institute tariffs but they were nowhere near as high as he had threatened them to be uh he's also gotten a lot of push back from Corporate America be very careful about applying uh tariffs and we must remember that uh no president in our history uh uh is so tied to the stock market as Donald Trump who measures his own success by how well the stock market does so uh my feeling is is that the terrorists will not be anywhere as large as the market fears and I myself and many others really cannot place them into a forecast uh until we find out what the policy uh is going to be but there is no doubt we are in a very strong economy uh both the third and fourth quarter are very close to 3% real GDP growth we we have very good momentum moving into 2025 do you worry about the economy overheating I worry a bit about the stock market uh overheating this latest run as I mentioned particularly of the tech stocks and and the mag 7 uh I think was uh was uh bedded by momentum players uh that were just running up the stock and and holding on and as soon as those trend lines were broken shortly after uh 2 pm eastern time today when uh the FED made their announcement uh they all began to jump off that train uh and we saw some very very big declines I mean Tesla of course was the one that was the most hyped up uh it almost declined 10% might certainly bounce back but I think it was not a healthy rise in the last week or two weeks and I think that this actually does bring some healthy reality back to the markets yeah it's interesting you said that Jeremy getting back to the tariffs I suppose that is one to watch as far as the size is concerned given some of the sort of magnanimous remarks coming from Trump regarding xiin ping earlier this week but you talk about the strength of the economy and then you also talk about the reality check for the markets I mean there is this view out there that perhaps this was a bit of a reluctant reduction in order to give the market some comfort so that the the FED could lay the path for a sort of more hawkish or uncertain sort of tone into 2025 but given the FED sort of gave the markets what they had been expecting and yet we still saw disappointment what does that tell you about the reaction function moving forward well everyone was sure of of the 25 basis point cut uh uh chairman pow has been making it a policy that if uh he does not go if if he feels the market is wrong within a week or or 10 days or two weeks of the decision he makes an announcement to straighten the market so by not pushing back against the almost Universal expectation of 25 basis point cut uh he was completing the 1% point cut uh that they had planned for this year 50 in September 25 November and now this 25 but we know that the uh the neutral rate that so-called RAR that elusive RAR what rate is uh the economy imbalanced it is certainly much higher than most economists including the FED had thought it was but in the middle of uh uh uh last year or in in the middle of the end of this year uh my feeling is actually that the neutral rate uh of interest is somewhere between three and a half and 4% uh with today's move we we're down to 4 33% so we are still maybe 50 basis points above it restrictive but as chairman pow using his words we have gone a long way back towards a neutral policy