저자: Moriguchi · 외국인
요약 보기
10/17 영상에서 언급한 SOXL 셀링클라이맥스 데드라인(옵션 SQ)이 지났다고 보고 바닥 확인을 시도한다. 미국 증시 상승, 나스닥 일목균형표 상단 돌파, 도쿄일렉트론·엔비디아 하락추세선 돌파와 이중바닥 가능성을 언급. 장기금리 상승은 경계 요인. 실적 기대가 높아 주가 상승 시 실적 허들도 높다고 평가.
다듬은 글
Good morning, this is Moriguchi. Thank you for joining us again today. Today is Tuesday, October 25th. The topic for today is whether the market has truly bottomed out after passing a certain deadline. What is this deadline? In the video from October 17th, I mentioned that the leveraged ETFs for the SOXL index were at a selling climax, and that there might be a deadline for this.
Now that that deadline has passed, I would like to check the current situation to see if the market has truly bottomed out. We will also be looking at technical analysis of each index, so please stay with us until the end. This channel updates every morning with a target of C, covering the latest situation and technical analysis, so if you would like to listen tomorrow as well, please subscribe to the channel.
Now, let's start with a review of yesterday. First, regarding Japanese stocks, the SANCHI index rose across the board. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.31%, the PIX rose 28%, and Mothers rose 0.33%. However, the 5th index narrowed its gains considerably. It went up to a high of 20,738 yen, but has since fallen below 27,000 yen, so I think there are some concerns that it might be a little weak.
However, looking at the upward trend, the Advantest M3 Shinetsu price at Tokyo Rect shows that semiconductors were indeed strong, that's the impression I get. Let's look at the US. Both the New York Dow and the S&P are up. The S&P is up more than 1%. Looking at the sectors, everything except materials and real estate is up.
All sectors of the Nasdaq are up. Many stocks in the New York Dow are also up. And looking at the Nasdaq heat map, quite a lot of stocks are up, and healthcare and consumer staples are also up, while information technology is also up, so I get the impression that everything is high. European stock prices are moving quite steadily, and the Nikkei futures are up about 170 yen.
However, the dollar-yen has risen again to the 149 yen level. Yesterday, before the market opened, the yen suddenly strengthened. There were moments when it touched on, but ultimately it's moving in the same direction again, so I'd like to keep a close eye on it. The VIX remains below 30 at 29.94, and long-term interest rates are at 0.92%.
Russell Sox are both slightly up, and Nikkei futures are at 170 yen, so I'd like to take a good look at it today. As for Dango, it has fallen slightly, so let's take a look. It has surpassed the stated level, but I'd like to talk about whether it has really bottomed out. First, the Nikkei newspaper after the start of US trading hours.
There is a view that the Fed will slow the pace of interest rate hikes this year. It was reported last weekend that the FOMC may narrow the profit margin at the November/December meeting, so that is one major factor that has led to the continued rise. Another is the view that the management of the UK's finances will stabilize as a new Prime Minister is expected to take office.
European stock markets are rising. This is due to a combination of factors: stability in Europe and a sense of relief that the pace of interest rate hikes in the US will slow down. US stocks are rising. However, this article mentions that there has been a pause in the rise of long-term interest rates.
Looking at long-term interest rates at yesterday's closing price, they were rising. This is one area where we need to be a little cautious. There was news that the rise might pause if it formed an upper shadow at the upper limit of the rising channel and turned into a bearish candlestick. However, just because it was rising yesterday doesn't mean we should be too cautious.
Today's main topic is the climax selling climax of Sox's L, which was mentioned in the video we covered earlier. As one indicator of the expiration date, it seems that Sox's L option trading was also very active once the option SQ expiration date passed, with puts and calls. There were a lot of calls, so it was like, "If it goes down, sell, sell," and that continued, but the option SQ is the settlement date, so I said that once it passed there was a possibility that it would calm down to some extent.
When we actually checked what happened after it cooled down, it looked like this. This is the sock sale cooling chart, and the decline continued, and when it cools down, it is a slightly different issue from the weekly chart we looked at earlier, but the day with the highest possibility of being the selling climax was this day, as the trading volume was the highest, and from there it rose without breaking the low, and now it has just barely crossed the past trend line, but I would like to look at it a little more cautiously, but I think there are good signs, and the MACD is also moving in the positive.
I would like to take a look at some of the major stocks as well, for example NVIDIA, NVIDIA also hit a low on the same day and has risen sharply. So, looking at the downtrend line, it's clearly crossed a line it's never crossed before, and the fact that NVIDIA, the leading stock, is showing these signs is a very good thing, but I feel like we'd like to see some kind of double bottom-like sign.
I'd like to look at some of Japan's leading stocks, and this is Tokyo Electron, right? Among the 822-related stocks, it has a very large market capitalization and its price is high, so it has a lot of influence on Mathematics and the Nikkei 225. I thought that if it broke through there, Japan would regain a lot of stability, and I think the chart there looked like it could form a double bottom.
However, the fact that yesterday's closing price didn't quite cross the neckline is a bit of a concern, and the rising long-term interest rates are still a bit worrying, but regarding this double bottom, I talked about the double bottom that appeared in the New York Dow in the video from October 22nd.
Specifically I've been saying that what happens after this neckline is very important, so please take that into consideration. And one more thing, there's Lasertec, a major Japanese stock. Lasertec's stock price has been moving as if it's been revived since October 3rd, and I felt that this was quite a leading move.
In that context, I think it's very positive that we can see similar things in the SOCKS index, Tokyo Electron, and NVIDIA. However, as I mentioned earlier, the SOCKS index, including SOCKS L, needs a little more, and if that is satisfied, I think it will create a situation where people will feel more secure and it will be easier to buy semiconductor-related stocks.
This is the cooling chart for the SOCKS index, and although it's a somewhat complex chart, I hope you'll bear with me as it provides some kind of reassurance. First of all, in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, it's just below the base line, so ideally we'd like it to be above the base line. As the name suggests, the base line is the benchmark line for this market, so please keep in mind that whether or not it is crossed is a very important sign.
I think we should aim for that. Also, the 25-day moving average, which is the white line, has not been crossed yet, so it's not above the one-month average. However, it has risen from the twist in the cloud, so I think we can expect a reversal. The MACD is positive, and for company employees, one of the things that could potentially happen in the future is when the lagging span crosses the stock price.
This is a very important event in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. Ideally, it would be best if it were to search for a low again, and without breaking that low, it would rise above the high again, creating a double bottom-like movement. We will be watching in the next few days to see if such a movement occurs, whether it will rise above the high without breaking the low, or whether it will break through these key levels and the lagging span will rise above the stock price.
Also, this is clearly visible in the Nasdaq's cooling chart, so I think it might be a good idea to strengthen our position a little in that regard as well. The parts that weren't fulfilled earlier are quite fulfilled in the Nasdaq. I've drawn an upward channel here, and it has crossed the upward channel, the 25-day moving average, and the base line.
It hasn't crossed the Ichimoku Cloud yet, but it feels like something is about to happen. And it has risen again using the Ichimoku Cloud as a reference, so I think it's worth keeping in mind that there's a possibility that the trend is changing. And most importantly, from this week onward, especially GAFA's earnings report which will come out this week, and earnings announcements are coming out one after another.
Following the earnings announcements so far, excessive anxiety about corporate performance has eased considerably, and expectations for Tether's stock price to rise are also supporting the market. So, there are indeed expectations, and stock prices are becoming firm. The question is whether they will exceed expectations.
There will be stocks that go up and stocks that go down, but make sure you don't miss the earnings reports of major stocks, and after the local earnings reports have finished and the cycle has run its course. So, I'd like to take another look at which direction the stock market is heading. This is a summary of the second video.
The rise in US stocks this time is due to expectations of a slower pace of interest rate hikes and a sense of relief from the decision on the next Prime Minister of the UK. The options SQ passed last Friday, but the setting climax was really looking at Soxale. It has just crossed the downtrend line, so I think it's still a bit dangerous to think that it has completely broken through there, but I think there is still a good possibility.
Major stocks include US stock NVIDIA and Japanese stock Tokyo Electron. These have also broken through the downtrend line, and in the case of Tokyo, there may even be a double bottom pattern. But, surpassing them all, Lasertec has surged and reached RS10, so I think there is also reason to be optimistic about this.
And, talking about the Nasdaq, it has broken through the channel. Based on the Ichimoku Cloud, the price has risen sharply, so I think it's quite possible that a reversal has occurred. And earnings reports are coming out soon, and expectations for these earnings are high, so the fact that the stock price is rising due to these high expectations means that the hurdle to overcome in the earnings report has also risen, so please keep that in mind as well.
Now, let's look at the trading strategies for the index. Sorry, we'll look at this in a cool-down manner. First, the Nikkei 225. The Nikkei 225 closed with a bearish candlestick yesterday, and the futures price yesterday was 27,145 yen, which is almost the same as today. So, we're keeping it as a trading option, but even though it closed with a bearish candlestick, the base line has dropped sharply, so it is above the base line and above the base line.
So, let's see how it moves today. It looks like it will start again at 27,000, so it is still within the range. We will carefully check which way it will go. Let's look at the TOPIX. The TOPIX is almost the same as the Nikkei 225, isn't it? It has fallen below the 25-day moving average, but it is still within a range, so we will see where it is after the close of today.
I think it will probably start on an upward trend today. Let's take a look. As for the mixed chart, it is a bearish candlestick, but it is still in a relatively advantageous position compared to the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX. It is well above the base line and the 25-day moving average. The fact that the base line and the lagging span temporarily fell was one big sign, but in the next few days, as the stock price has fallen again from 26 days ago, there is a high possibility that a breakout will occur, and if that occurs and the price is replaced and rises, then there is a very high possibility that the stock price will break above the cloud again.
I would like to keep an eye on it with such expectations in mind. Let's take a look at the New York Down. It has completely crossed above the coarse span, hasn't it? It has been moving steadily even after the double bottom was completed, and what will happen after it hits the cloud? I think it would be good if it made a move while the level was still thin and then crossed over, so around this level, it would be good to gradually raise it up after the earnings report, as positive results will come out in the earnings report, because it has caught up with the possibility of a sharp rise.
Also, it has crossed the 0 line, which I think is a good sign. Let's look at the S&P 500. Regarding the S&P 500, it has crossed the 25-day moving average baseline, so the key point will be whether the Cospan line will cross over the stock price. The New York Dow is rising first, and now the Ichimoku Cloud is twisting, so when we look at it as a reversal or acceleration, I would like it to go in the direction of acceleration, as it seems to be developing around here.
Let's look at NASA. Regarding NASA, it has crossed the channel and the baseline, and has crossed the 25-day moving average baseline, so I would like to be optimistic. However, if it falls below the low again, then I would change my perspective again. It is necessary, and we must not forget that long-term interest rates rose yesterday.
I think we must not forget that. Let's look at Russell. Regarding Russell, it seems that it has been the least impressive index recently. However, the 25th-day rising line, the base line, and the lag indicator are about to exceed the stock price, so that remains unchanged, and I would like to keep a close eye on that.
So, today, US stocks rose, and this trend continues, and the UK is also stable, and finally, we were checking whether this selling climax is really happening, but there is always the possibility of it going up or down, so we will keep checking that closely, but for now, I think it has changed to a point where we can be quite optimistic.
I hope it will be stable until the end of the year. So, that's all for today's announcement. We will also analyze individual stocks. This is a magazine, and I've posted the latest article from Shin Nippon Kagaku. It costs 1000 yen per month, but the first month is free, so if you're interested, please check the URL in the description.
Also, I have a membership on the same platform. This is just for distributing articles, so there are n't any community features at the moment, but of course, if you're interested, please choose either one. Also, the book is still being reprinted, and the bookstore purchase campaign is continuing, so if you're interested, please check the URL in the description.
So, that's all for today. If you found anything helpful today, please hit the like button. I will continue to do technical analysis in this format from tomorrow onwards, so if you'd like to listen tomorrow, please subscribe to the channel. I was in Hokkaido until yesterday and have returned home. I will continue to do my best to deliver videos in a stable environment, so please continue to support me from tomorrow onwards. See you tomorrow for technical analysis. Bye.
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