저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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아마존 AWS 성장률 둔화 우려와 MS Azure 급성장(+67%) 대비, 아마존의 AI 설비투자 확대는 투자 기회로 본다. 메타 실적 후 주가 하락은 오해라고 주장. AI 설비투자 지속과 메모리 수요 강세를 근거로 반도체 급락은 레버리지 청산 등 기술적 매도이며 펀더멘털과 무관하다고 주장. 아처대니얼스미드·타이슨 푸드 매수 의견 언급.
다듬은 글
Let's move on. I thought it was better than I thought it was better than just good. I liked it. I had...I think it was a good read. I read it myself periodically. You know, just to...well, you know. At three in the morning, right? Yes, at 2:47. This was a problem. I used to get up at 2:47. No, I'm not kidding.
Until I discovered the wonders of chemistry, I woke up at 2:47 every night for over 30 years. Never at 2:48, never at 2:46. It destroyed an entire marriage. It was so sad. It was terrible. So, it's like clockwork. It was like clockwork. 2:47. 2:47. Incredible. I will remember this. It was like...it was like...it was like...
like I was in some kind of Twilight Zone. Twilight Zone . You can tell about it in your next book. I always woke up, you know, as if without coffee. You know, like I've been to Dunkin' Donuts 17 times. I don't know how that happened. Oh, yes, what promotions? Sorry. I got a little carried away. Just having a little fun.
Sorry. I'm not getting paid for this, partner. What...what do we have ? I love that you're entertaining us, Jim. Everything is fine. You can talk as much as you want, my friend. All the things I have to do on television, every single one of them. You are here not only to teach, but also to entertain and make us money.
Thank you. Thank you. What are we doing? So, Jim, I look at the company, they just released an extremely strong earnings report, I think about a month ago. I'm going to ask you a two-part question : buy, sell, or hold. And if you tell me to buy, buy, buy like a bulldog, um...just tell me if I should wait for further declines because the market is a little...the market is a little uncertain right now.
Question about Archer-Daniels... Archer-Daniels... First of all, I want to say something. For the first time, I...I'll give you two deals for the price of one. You gave me this opportunity, and I will respond in kind. For the first time in 17,000 years, when I got up at 2:47, I'm going to say: I like Archer-Daniels-Midland and Tyson Foods.
I'm not kidding. I like ADM and I like Tyson. You know what? And I...this...this ...this...this is amazing. These are two stocks I have hated since 1847. Okay, anyway . Listen, sometimes you have to stop thinking about where stocks have been before and start thinking about where they are going. Otherwise, you may miss out on big profits.
I'm not kidding about Arch Capital. It's really here. All my money tonight . The fact is that Amazon's huge advantage in AWS is diminishing, and perhaps Microsoft will be able to bypass them. And I think that's the biggest fear for Amazon investors or the biggest hope for Microsoft investors. And you can see on this graph that we have year-over-year figures .
I want to emphasize this very clearly. This is not a general demand. This is how changes occur on an annual basis. So, if a company had a straight line in the positive zone, it would mean that it is growing steadily over time. So, we are plotting the derivative. But when you look at that Azure line, the purple line, it just flies off the charts.
This is a big number, plus 67% year-on-year. While AWS is moving at a rate of plus 13%, which is also not bad. Google is somehow holding on, but the main question is: will they lose to Microsoft? They have a large number of different companies that prefer AWS or Microsoft, and the situation is now becoming clearer, but they are competing.
That means they spend a lot of money. I think 200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 for infrastructure development. They did what they always do when it comes to big expenses— they built this business themselves. It started with AWS. They spent a lot of money on servers and everything else. So they said, "You know what?" " We'll build it ourselves." "Maybe this will become a business." And now it's one of the biggest trends.
They did it for delivery. They do this for our GPUs , AI software, Trainium, and Bedrock. They continue to develop what they consider to be their biggest expenses and turn them into revenue—it's an incredible strategy, and it's why they're one of the largest companies in the world. So, hats off to them, but again, the question is, will they lose to Microsoft?
The data we show indicates that this is likely to be a quarter of significant catch-up for Microsoft . AWS will definitely still be the leader, but I think that gap is narrowing significantly. So, there is some concern here. And also, you know, when we look at Meta's report, they beat revenue expectations, capital expenditures increased a little bit, I think by 10 billion, and their stock went down.
So if Amazon says it's going to spend even more on capital expenditure , if they increase it, how will the market react? Personally, I consider this an investment, so any negative reaction to such an increase in costs is an opportunity in my eyes. I think this is a misinterpretation . These are not the companies that, you know, are most likely to go bankrupt due to excessive costs.
Such a risk simply does not exist. They have huge incomes, they can deal with this . But they are effectively buying future income at the expense of current expenses, and I think that's a fantastic model . So, you know, the way we see it now, again, retail sales are holding at plus 1%. I know Prime Day was very successful.
It seems to have grown by 9% year- over-year, but that's almost like a footnote for the company. All eyes are on computing power and AWS. And according to our data, they have a growth of plus 13 percent in demand. Now I want to add another caveat, I was talking about the derived angle of view. Another caveat to this number is that these are people who are talking about it, visiting these websites, and wanting to sign up.
And so it doesn't necessarily mean that Amazon's growth will be 13%. We believe it will likely be higher because it doesn't take into account existing customers who are expanding what they already have. This is very difficult to track for companies like Folio. People, you know, business managers don't usually go on social media to talk about their increased expenses.
But we can track new customers. So I think Microsoft is doing a very good job with new customers. Amazon's AWS does well with existing customers, driving their growth. They are both growing very quickly thanks to existing customers. But I think that Microsoft closing their gap might be perceived a little negatively by investors.
Yes, Landon, it's funny that we used to talk about Amazon as a retailer, even though that's the bulk of it . Wall Street just changed its mind about AI, and here's why. Just a few weeks ago, it seemed like AI stock trading was falling apart. Semiconductor stocks plummeted, and memory companies lost hundreds of billions in market value.
Investors suddenly began to question whether AI development had reached its peak. But then came reporting season, and the companies building the future told a very different story. Instead of cutting costs, they spend even more. Amazon has updated its AI investment forecast, an at an incredible pace .
Alphabet confirmed plans to aggressively expand data centers. Meta continues to pour billions into artificial intelligence despite investor skepticism. If demand were to slow , these companies would try to conserve cash. Instead, they compete for every available graphics processor, networking system, and memory chip.
This indicates an important point: the deficit has not disappeared. He simply moved from the headlines back into the real world . While investors argue about valuations, executives continue to talk about capacity shortages. Many admitted that they still can't build infrastructure fast enough to satisfy customers.
This is not the language of an industry that is nearing decline. This is the language of an industry struggling to keep up with demand. So why did semiconductor stocks collapse? The answer may have little to do with business results . Institutional investors believed that the market had become overheated.
Too many hedge funds held the same positions, and retail investor leverage exploded . Credit ETFs on individual stocks amplified every market move. When the first wave of sales began, it caused a forced liquidation of assets across the sector. Strong companies fell along with the weaker ones. Not because of a change in profits, but because investors were forced to reduce risks.
History has seen this scenario before. Technical selling often pushes prices much lower than fundamentals would justify . Eventually, this pressure disappears, and investors start to focus on business results again. And that is exactly what is happening now. The conversation shifted from panic back to financial results.
One area that is attracting new attention is memory. For decades, memory chips have been considered one of the most cyclical businesses in technology. The excess supply eventually drove down prices and profits disappeared. This cycle repeated itself over and over again. Artificial intelligence may have changed these rules of the game.
Modern AI systems consume enormous amounts of memory: larger language models, longer context windows, real-time inference, and automated AI agents require significantly more high-performance memory than traditional computing.
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