저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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2023년 미국 경제는 인플레이션과 금리 인상 영향으로 경기침체에 빠질 가능성이 높다는 Michael Burry의 경고를 중심으로 한 영상이다. 거시 전망: Burry는 2023년 미국이 정의 방식과 무관하게 경기침체에 들어갈 것이라고 주장했으며, 인플레이션은 정점을 찍었지만 이번 사이클의 마지막 고점은 아니라고 봤다. 정책 시나리오: 연준이 금리를 인하하고 정부가 경기부양책을 내놓으면 2020년 3월 이후와 유사하게 인플레이션이 다시 튀어오를 수 있다고 설명했다. 블룸버그 설문: 38명의 전문가 중 경기침체 가능성을 70%로 본 응답이 있었으며, 11월 65%에서 상승했다. 2023년 GDP 중간 전망치는 0.3% 성장이다. 소비 전망: 소비가 GDP의 3분의 2를 차지하는데 중반기에 거의 확장되지 않을 것으로 예상되었다. 골드만삭스 자산운용의 Maria Vasileva는 실질 GDP와 실업률 악화가 심각하지 않고 인플레이션이 목표치 근처로 떨어지기 전까지 연준이 긴축을 유지할 것이라고 말했다. 개인·기업 조언: 큰 구매는 미루고 현금을 확보하라는 조언이 나왔다. 과거 이력: Burry는 2008년 금융위기 때 서브프라임 모기지 붕괴를 예측해 'Big Short'로 유명해졌으며, 2022년 자신의 경고들이 대부분 현실화됐다고 회고했다. 리스크: 금리 인하와 부양책이 오히려 물가 재상승을 부를 수 있다는 점이 핵심 위험으로 제시되었다.
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Michael Berry news big short Michael Berry makes a dire prediction for 2023 the famed investor believes that this year will be a difficult one for the economy of the United States as inflation maintains at its highest level in 40 years consumers and investors are concerned about the extent to which the cost of living will increase however the question that everyone including businesses consumers and the government is concerned about is whether or not the economy will enter a recession the word that makes people nervous begins with the letter r however the likelihood of a recession in 2023 has been established Beyond reasonable question by a significant number of economists Bloomberg conducted a study in December of 38 experts and found that they anticipated a recession having a 70 likelihood of recurring in 2019.
this is an increase from November's percentage of 65 percent demand is expected to decrease as a result of interest rate hikes implemented by the Federal Reserve they anticipate that consumer spending which accounts for two-thirds of GDP will scarcely expand in the middle half of the Year and that this prediction is based on their projections the median forecast for GDP growth in 2023 is for a meager 0.3 percent increase across the board this includes a decrease of 0.7 percent on an annualized basis for the second quarter as well as no increase whatsoever for the first and third quarters according to Maria vaselu co-chief investment officer of multi-asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management we expect that the Federal Reserve will stay in restrictive policy for a while unless the effect on real GDP growth and unemployment becomes particularly severe and inflation has fallen close to Target this statement was made in response to the question of whether or not the Federal Reserve will move away from restrictive policy in the near future the U.S in recession by any definition a number of prominent corporate figures such as Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have also previously warned of an impending recession my recommendation to individuals and owners of small businesses is to eliminate certain potential dangers if you are about to make a purchase you might want to take a slightly more leisurely approach to making that transaction besso stated last November if you are a single person who is considering purchasing a brand new television with a large screen you should probably hold off on making the purchase keep the money and see what unfolds the same thing applies when purchasing a new automobile or refrigerator whatever it may be let's eliminate some potential dangers if you run a small business you might want to consider delaying some major purchases for example do you really need that new piece of Machinery just a little bit of risk reduction could make all the difference for that little firm perhaps it can wait a little while it would be wise to have some cash on hand this Bleak prognosis appears to be shared by Michael Berry who is regarded as the Oracle of Wall Street due to his illustrious career as an investor he has just finished making his initial forecast for 2023 and unfortunately they are not optimistic according to Barry the economy of the United States will be in a recession in 2023 and it doesn't matter how the term recession is defined on the first of the year Barry remarked on Twitter inflation has peaked on the other hand this is not the Cycle's last High we should anticipate a decrease in the CPI which could even turn negative in the second half of 2023 and a recession in the United States according to any definition then he goes on to explain a vicious circle the Federal Reserve which has increased interest rates to a level that has not been seen since the 2008 financial crisis will reverse course and lower rates while the federal government should unveil a stimulus program to assist households who are being choked by the weakening economy all of this will culminate and yet another increase in inflation which is analogous to what took place during the covid-19 pandemic in essence we are going to witness a playback of the events that took place following March of 2020.
the Federal Reserve will decrease rates while the government will stimulate the economy and there will be another jump in the price of goods it's not that difficult Barry says Barry's past predictions are legendary became a household name as a result of one of the most disastrous economic events in the canals of History the financial crisis of 2008 because of this he became one of the leading figures in the opposition to the conventional procedures that are followed in financial circles in the film The Big Short released in 2015 an investor who did not have specialized knowledge in real estate or Finance describes how he came to the realization that the industry had become a sand castle the film shows how financiers and bankers created exotic products based on mortgages that were given to financially unstable households and borrowers who had a low credit score as a result he came to the conclusion that the subprime mortgage Market would eventually collapse hence the label big short it turned out that he was correct since then Mary who now manages the hedge fund Scion Asset Management has developed a reputation as something of an oracle on Wall Street his Twitter account which is Cassandra BC demonstrates that he has enthusiastically taken on this job he's kind of a troublemaker for those who engage in trading and taking risks he predicted that the stock market was going to have a moment of truth after two years of prosperity during the pandemic and he issued These Warnings over the past few months Barry predicted that the economic situation was going to deteriorate seriously and that massive layoffs of white-collar workers were on the horizon 2022 was the year in which all of these predictions came true what do you think of our video let us know in the comments section below if you enjoyed this video and want to hear from me again please subscribe and turn on the notification before leaving thanks for watching
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