저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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마이클 버리는 2005년 주택시장 붕괴에 베팅해 큰 수익을 낸 인물로 소개되며, 현재 시장도 당시와 유사한 거품 국면이라고 경고한다. 역사적 맥락: 버리는 2005년 CDS 매수로 약 1억 달러 개인 수익을 냈고, S&P500 고점은 2007년 10월 11일이었다. 당시 그는 비판과 투자자 이탈을 겪고 펀드를 청산했다. 현재 시장 경고: 미국 증시가 추가 하락 중이며 2000년 닷컴 붕괴 초기와 비교한다. 시가총액 10억 달러 이상이면서 연간 적자 1억 달러 이상인 상장사가 218개라고 지적하고, 그중 29개는 시총 100억 달러 이상(합계 6550억 달러)이라고 밝힌다. 시장 지표: 200일 이동평균선 위에서 거래 마감한 미국 주식 비율이 13.48%로, 2009년 바닥 당시 1.2%였다. 버리는 증시가 바닥 전에 크게 더 무너질 것으로 본다. 지수 목표: S&P500은 올해 약 25% 하락한 상태이며, 추가로 48% 하락해 약 1900포인트까지 밀릴 수 있다고 가설을 제시한다. 패시브 투자 비판: 인덱스펀드와 ETF가 자산 가격을 비합리적으로 끌어올리고 있으며, 현재를 붐비는 극장에 비유해 출구가 좁아 많은 투자자가 밟힐 것이라고 경고한다. 과거 베팅 이력: 2000년대 중반 주택 거품에 10억 달러 규모 베팅, 테슬라와 캐시 우드 ARK Innovation Fund에 대한 공매도, 밈주식 게임스탑 매수 이력이 언급된다. 거시 환경: 버리는 연준의 QT 전환 가능성을 언급하지만, 과거 연준 피벗은 대개 증시 바닥과 일치했다는 점을 들어 현재는 아직 유동성이 과도하다고 본다. FOMC 의사록에서도 인플레이션 위험이 상방으로 기울어 있다는 점이 지적된다. 금리와 밸류에이션: 장기금리 상승은 부채 상환 부담과 할인율 상승을 통해 주가에 부정적이다. 버리는 잉여현금흐름 대비 저평가된 가치주 중 재무구조가 탄탄한 기업이 유망하다고 본다. 이 영상 설명란은 비어 있어 출연자 소속은 제목 기준으로만 확인된다.
다듬은 글
Michael burry bought his first credit default swaps on May 19 2005 because he thought the housing crisis was coming credit default swaps worth 60 million dollars came from Deutsche Bank Each Bond was worth 10 million dollars his prediction was that the U.S mortgage-backed security which used to be a safe and respectable investment had slowly turned into a dangerous and deceptive Time Bomb because of greed and Corruption in his eyes this bet wasn't a gamble because he did the research and read the documents and knew what would happen the only problem was that it would take the rest of the world another two years to even start looking the S P 500 didn't reach its peak until October 11 2007.
from this single bed Michael burry made a personal profit of 100 million dollars and made his investors over 700 million dollars however in the Years leading up to this amazing success he was constantly criticized by the investing world and even his own investors which led him to close his fund when all was said and done so why are we telling you about this now when it happened 15 years ago history is happening all over again Michael burry was the first person to notice that something was wrong with the growing subprime mortgage Market bury first warned of high inflation in February of last year what's interesting is that in the past month or so Michael burry hasn't just been doing Victory laps instead he's been tweeting a lot about why he thinks the economic crisis and Market downturn have only just begun Michael burry has issued a warning that the stock market in the United States has further Fallen and he has linked the present market decline to the beginning of the.com crisis he has also predicted that many investors will suffer devastating losses the investor who gained notoriety for his role in the film The Big Short pointed out in a tweet that there are 218 businesses in the United States that have a primary stock listing a market capitalization of more than one billion dollars and yearly losses that exceed 100 million dollars he went on to say that of them 29 had market capitalization greater than 10 billion dollars giving them a combined value of 655 billion dollars saying it again every last bit of foolishness has got to disappear bury was the author he was referring to a tweet that he had sent out in August in which he expressed his frustration that the covet erasilliness that had plagued markets in the past had returned in that tweet he emphasized that similar speculation had blown up previous bubbles but that it had always collapsed in the end the head of Scion Asset Management mentioned in a tweet that 13.48 percent of U.S stocks finished the trading day with a price that was higher than their 200-day moving average he pointed out that this proportion was 1.2 percent when the market bottomed out in 2009.
he anticipated that the stock market will collapse substantially further before reaching its bottom bury has previously hypothesized that the standard in Poor's 500 which has already lost around 25 percent of its value so far this year may fall Another 48 percent to approximately 1900 points Murray stated in a tweet that the present Market background brought back memories of the latter half of the year 2000 forum at that time certain unloved stocks were trading at bargain levels while high-flying names still had further to fall he continued another vibe I'm getting is the middle to late year 2000 while formerly momentum stocks are falling but not nearly enough and favorite better firms still have a ways to go free cash flow is being completely discounted and ignored by investors despite the fact that another crash was on the horizon the value was set to Skyrocket for several years in a subsequent tweet Murray said that index funds and exchanged traded funds were driving up asset values in an irrational manner in addition to this he likened the market to a crowded theater and warned that many investors would be trampled as everyone sprinted for the exits at the same time the difference between now and the year 2000 is the bubble of passive investment That Grew progressively over the course of the previous decade every theater is packed to capacity and the only way for anyone to exit is to push and shove their way through the crowd however the door can only be opened to a certain degree is best known for his 1 billion dollar bet against the housing boom that occurred in the middle of the 2000s this wager was detailed in both the book The Big Short and the movie of the same name additionally he made bets against Elon musk's Tesla and Kathy Woods Arc Innovation Fund in the previous year in addition to this he bought a position in GameStop before it became a meme stock the leader of Scion has been forecasting for some time now that the market will crash in a catastrophic way in June of the previous year he called attention to what he called the largest speculative bubble of all time in all things and warned that it would end in the mother of all crashes Michael burry and a few other economists anticipate a QT pivot in the beginning of the following year but does this imply that the Federal Reserve will similarly change its stance on interest rates in the near future this is a really crucial question because historically speaking a Fed pivot has almost always coincided with the market bottom in the equity markets the history of wage growth is one method to demonstrate that there is still far too much liquidity in the system for a Fed pivot to be implemented at this time according to the most recent minutes from the fomc meeting participants of the Federal Reserve concurred that there is a high level of uncertainty regarding their economic Outlook and that the risk to their inflation Outlook are weighted upward there was a possibility that a larger than expected pass-through of pay increases into price increases as potential shocks that if they materialize might exacerbate an already severe inflation problem this was one of the risks in a similar vein Michael burry May personally hold the belief that much suffering is still to come before equities markets reach their bottom when he said that all silliness must go he was making a reference to this this nonsense is in reference to the many growing Enterprises that are still operating in the market today these businesses are not yet profitable and require low interest rates in order to maintain their operations just in the past month there were 218 major stock listings that had a market cap of more than 1 billion United States dollars as stated by Michael burry Michael burry is of the opinion that there is still a ways to go and that equities might slide lower amidst the instability that is occurring in the bond markets because it becomes more expensive to service debt which affects profitability higher bond yields are typically connected with lower stock prices this is because higher Bond rates make it more likely that stock prices will fall because discounted cash flow valuation methods are used by Financial analysts interest rates also have a negative effect on stock prices future discounted valuations are lower when the discount rate for future cash flow is higher hence higher discount rates have a negative impact on stock prices despite this Michael burry is convinced that there are excellent Assets in the value sector that are currently being sold at a discount these Investments are reportedly being sold at low valuations of price in relation to their free cash flow as a consequence of this it is essential to make purchases of businesses that have very solid balance sheets and a favorable likelihood of generating free cash flow even though a company has debt it may still be appealing to investors since it may be possible for the company to buy back its own debt at reduced rates using cash flow generated by the company
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