저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리는 패시브 투자(인덱스 펀드) 버블이 이미 터졌지만 아직 인식되지 못했다고 주장하며, 시장은 급등 또는 급락 중 한쪽으로 결판날 것이라고 본다. 핵심 주장: 패시브 투자는 1달러 유입 시 시장가치가 5달러 증가하는 구조로, 레버리지·부채 창출과 결합해 버블을 형성했다. 2021년 9월 버블 징후를 포착했고 2022년 약세장 3개월 전이었다. 근거 지표: 버핏 지표(미국 주식 시가총액/GDP)는 2021년 말 과열 신호를 보였다. 밀레니얼 세대의 약 90%가 패시브 상품에 투자 중이라는 점을 근거로 들었다. 종목 언급: 테슬라는 S&P500 시총의 약 3%(시총 약 1.3조 달러), 애플은 약 3조 달러로 S&P500의 7% 이상을 차지하며, 가격 발견 없이 인덱스 자금 유입으로 커졌다고 지적했다. 통화 환경: 연준·부분지급준비제도·법정화폐·부채 창출 패러다임이 금리 인상과 양적긴축으로 전환되는 중이며, 이것이 인플레이션과 함께 시스템을 깰 수 있다고 봤다. 리스크/조건: 포물선 형태는 횡보로 해소되지 않으므로 상승(melt up) 또는 하락(melt down) 중 하나로 끝난다. 버리 자신도 정확한 결말은 몰랐다. 가치투자자 감소를 우려했다. 출연자 전망: 영상은 시장 부진 속 분산투자·인플레이션 헤지 필요성을 언급하며, 고통이 끝나지 않았다는 입장을 전했다. 버리의 과거 예측에 대한 평가는 엇갈린다는 점도 소개했다.
다듬은 글
Michael Berry the mother of all crashes is here Michael Berry's history of identifying Bubbles and making millions of dollars in the process far predates that and he's kept on going since then as well in the wake of the cobit pandemic and after a bleeding 2020 with stocks losing value week after week and month after month Barry once again put his skeptical hat on and shortened the markets Barry is telling us that the passive investing bubble has already popped we just don't know it yet today we're going to establish exactly what he's claiming why he's making these claims and what it all means passive investing for those who don't know passive investing is the opposite of active investing instead of actively picking stocks trawling through financial statements and future growth reports and trying to figure out which companies will do well in the future you simply put your money into stocks the difference between now and the year 2000 is the passive investing bubble that inflated steadily over the last decade all theaters are overcrowded and the only way anyone can get out is by trampling each other and the door is only so big too many people have just sat around following the age-old investing advice of checking a few hundred dollars into the S P's 500 each month and these people are all unaware of the problems this has caused at some point the routes will starve for passengers Barry provided a summary of the article by stating that if an increase of five dollars in market value results from the addition of one dollar to stocks and if ninety percent of Millennials who are also known as the future owners of wealth are currently invested in passive Market Vehicles then the ratio of five to one will become much sillier over time because cobit didn't stop it and inflation may or may not to acknowledge that a ratio of five to one is not a natural ratio but rather the product of a paradigm the next stage is to determine what will constitute the next iteration of this paradigm what may cause it to turn around is the fact that we are currently at five to one the odds might either improve to 100 to 1 or worsen to negative five to one nevertheless parabolas do not resolve sideways what Barry has been talking about and what the scholarly piece he is linked to confirms is that the nature of level average margin and other forms of debt means that when you put one dollar into an index fund the index fund gains in value by five dollars and therefore a bubble is born Barry detected this in September of 2021 which was three months prior to the beginning of the bear Market in 2022 and we were able to see the top nevertheless not even Barry himself knew exactly where this would go the ratio of five to one is not a natural ratio rather it is the product of a paradigm and that Paradigm consists of the Federal Reserve fractional Reserve banking fiat currency and debt creation however we are currently experiencing a transition in our monetary environment as evidenced by Rising interest rates and the replacement of quantitative easing with quantitative tightening it is possible that this paradigm shift and that the inflation following the covet pandemic is what finally breaks this crooked system as Barry just said parabolas don't resolve sideways this will either melt up or it will melt down of course there are other indicators you can look to in order to try and identify a bubble from index funds as well as the most notable one being the Buffett indicator named after none other than Warren Buffett himself it is a basic principle but there are exceptions to every rule there are some people that say that it is the total value of all U.S stocks compared to the country's GDP While others say it's the difference in value between the S P 500 or the wilcher 5000 and the US economy however the one thing that everyone can agree on is that it measures the valuation of American stocks compared to economic activity and that indicator was screaming at us by the end of 2021 when stocks are expensive or in a bubble the indicator Rises historically this has been true and Barry has also put out some tweets that aren't very cryptic in which he bemoans the lack of sensible active investors in today's market I get the sense that in 2002 there were more value hedge funds than there are value investors in today's market from his perspective value investors are essential for a properly operating Market because they actually determine what prices assets to trade at a lack of investors means a lack of pricing pressure in the right direction if you've been paying attention to the markets you've probably noticed how poorly stocks are performing this year and you might be thinking about diversifying your portfolio or maybe you just want to hedge against inflation well if that's the case then you need to hear about passive investing Barry is certain that the pain isn't over and that there is more to come and that passive investing will play a major part in the history books passive investing bubble examined there are a lot of people who listen to these claims and they don't really understand how there could even be an index fund bubble from their point of view index funds are supposed to ensure that there aren't any bubbles you just invest your money into the market as a whole so no single company like pets.com gets extra attention there's no Euphoria or emotion involved in investing through index funds therefore the market should function appropriately and price assets reasonably unfortunately this is not the case Tesla over the past few years is a great example because of the size to which that stock has grown it is not a secret that many people believe Tesla has been in a bubble and one of those sound in the alarm has actually been Michael Berry over the recent years at its peak that meant that when someone went to invest in the S P 500 they were putting three percent of their money into Tesla whether they knew it or not this increased buying pressure for Tesla which will have caused its price to rise even further because this is being done through the stock market Tesla was worth approximately 1.3 trillion dollars and was one of the most valuable publicly traded companies in the world it made up about three percent of the entire market cap of the s p 500.
Apple was worth just under 3 trillion dollars and accounted for more than seven percent of the s p 500. as a result it was seen massive inflows from investors who weren't paying attention to its price these companies were getting bigger solely because they were already big similarly they were getting more investors solely because they already had investors there was no element of price Discovery from the billions of dollars flooding into these companies via index funds and other investment vehicles some say Barry is a one-hit wonder and doesn't actually know what he's talking about While others say he's predicted more crashes than he's ever seen however the majority of people are simply cautious and concerned because the economic environment is currently deteriorating and will only worsen perhaps the bubble has already popped and we're just not aware of it what do you think of our video please let us know in the comment section below if you enjoyed this video and want to hear from me again please subscribe and turn on the notification before leaving thanks for watching
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