저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 국채 매수자 감소로 연준이 양적긴축을 조기 중단하고 다시 돈을 찍어 재정 파산을 막을 수 있다는 Credit Suisse 분석을 소개. 부채한도(약 31.4조달러) 도달 임박(2023년 7월경)과 의회 교착을 근거로 제시. 영국 국채 위기 사례를 들어 연준의 채권 매입(수익률곡선 통제 등) 가능성을 설명하며, 장기적으로 주식에 유리할 수 있다는 관점을 제시. 영상 후반부는 강의 프로그램 홍보.
다듬은 글
is nuts but the United States might run out of buyers for U.S treasuries which might mean the Federal Reserve is going to turn on the money printer again to prevent the U.S government from going bankrupt I kid you not this is what Credit Suisse is predicting a very particular analyst who has a really good thesis for this listen to this because it's nuts and in the video we'll even talk about how to prepare yourself quantitative tightening has just begun in fact if you look at the St Louis Federal Reserve you can see on their website that the Federal Reserves balance sheet has absolutely exploded from under one trillion dollars leading up to the 2008 recession exploding to nearly twice that following the 2008 Great Recession we then saw their balance sheet run up to nearly 5 trillion dollars by 2015 and then of course when the money Printing and the stimulus happened after covid we we ran up to 8.9 trillion dollars in total assets on hand at the Federal Reserve now we've started the quantitative tightening process as you can see here the line has started to go down slightly the Federal Reserve has gotten rid of a good old about 400 million dollars worth of bonds on their balance sheet this is an example of tightening this is we're just not going to renew the treasuries on our on our balance sheet as much we're just gonna start rolling them off to the tune of maybe 90 million dollars a month and this is roughly what they've started doing now the question is is it possible that the Federal Reserve ends up having to actually go in the opposite direction and start printing money again as we walk into a recession this is exactly what Credit Suisse believes the Federal Reserve will do not because they need to stimulate the market but to prevent the United States government from going bankrupt yup kid you not we've got a few problems for the government see the federal government projects to have about a one trillion dollar deficit per year for the next decade and the current debt ceiling is about 31.4 trillion dollars and guess what folks we are about 69 billion dollars away from hitting exactly that debt ceiling you can see that here the right line is the total of debt a public debt that we have subject to the Limit and the statutory level is right there and guess who might stand in the way of raising this debt ceiling which we think we might hit that debt ceiling limit somewhere around the summer maybe July of 2023 well if you thought it was easy to get stuff done in Congress your thoughts should have been extinguished when you saw how hard it was just to get house Speaker Kevin McCarthy elected it took 15 rounds of voting just to get the house Speaker elected that shows you how thin the Republican majority really is in the House of Representatives this hasn't really happened since once in the 1920s but more commonly back in the 1800s this is pretty remarkable but imagine trying now to get a debt ceiling increase through the House of Representatives might not happen and this is really interesting because in order for the government to actually fund it fund its expenses to keep the government functioning the government slowly reduces the debt ceiling but by increasing the debt ceiling would they actually end up having to do is agree to create more treasury bonds that's basically the way it works what they do is they say hey uh we need another 100 million dollars today what are we going to do oh uh how about we just issue a bond and uh we'll just promise to repay people 100 million dollars so we'll just issue a promise a piece of paper we'll call it risk free because historically it has been we'll slice it up into little thousand dollar sections and individuals can go buy these treasury bonds and we'll pay them interest on that but basically we just kind of created money out of nothing so we do expect the debt ceiling to get raised so the treasury Department can generate more of these bonds and fund the government how much it gets raised will be up for a debate but what's crazy is who's going to buy these bonds what if people stop buying these bonds who comes in to buy the bonds when the government stops uh having buyers for the treasury bonds well that's where Credit Suisse believes it's the Federal Reserve so as the government knocks on the door of bankruptcy it's possible the Federal Reserve may have to come and start turning the money printers on again and end quantitative tightening early solely to support the actual function of the government now tha well who's buying treasury bonds today and isn't it possible that you know the people buying treasury bonds today will just be here to go buy those treasury bombs maybe but according to Credit Suisse the first issue that we Face there are three issues we face in terms of actually Four issues that we face in terms of ordinary classic buyers of treasuries okay so the classic buyers of treasuries the number one classic buyer of treasuries are people who need to or institutions who need to Garner some kind of yield from the cash that they have available well problem with that is the Federal Reserve has this thing called the reverse repo uh depository account and basically Banks and institutions have been depositing more cash in the reverse repo Market since about March of 2021 that's why this line has been going up so much and the rate on these reverse repos is basically your fed funds rate divided by 360.
that's how much you get paid per night so think about that for a moment that's your banking year is 360 days so if you get paid five percent because the Federal Reserve has raised rates to five percent and you get paid this every single day well that's better than a 10-year treasury yielding you 3.75 or even a two-year treasury maybe yielding you 4.25 on the day rate right you would make more money obviously uh from the uh from the reverse repo than you would from investing in treasuries so in other words because of the repo rates and the Federal Reserve raising interest so much you actually end up killing one of your primary buyers of treasuries people who just want to park money overnight so that buyer goes away then Credit Suisse suggests that banks are unlikely to be buyers so they're going to go away because they're already holding a bunch of underwater bonds and they've kind of gotten screwed and instead they're taking their excess cash and what are they doing it what are they doing with that they're putting it into the reverse repo Market so number two goes away foreign exchange buyers are starting to get priced out because even though the dollars come down a little bit recently it's very very expensive compared to historical Norms so there's this argument that less foreign buyers might come and maybe there's even less of an appetite to buy treasury Bonds in the United States maybe to diversify a little bit more away from those and finally geopolitical events have also led to large FX Reserve managers reducing their appetite for treasury debt number three and four being somewhat correlated somewhat similar to each other right so Credit Suisse is making this argument that uh oh your classic buyers for treasuries are potentially going away because a you've got a bunch of people or institutions able to just throw money into the reverse repo Market in which case why bother buying treasuries so who's left then this is potentially as Credit Suisse calls it a check mate like situation first use that coupon code jet down below before prices change there'll be another big price change coming this month so make sure you get in before the expiration we just released a bunch of new content whether you're a hustler looking to increase your income that is your employed or you're self-employed looking for some potential new tax benefits or ways to optimize your business check out that program to make sure you're on the right path to buy the step in real estate stocks and psychology of money building that long-term wealth looking at pricing power stocks and fundamentals for companies make sure to check all those programs out link down below this is potentially as Credit Suisse calls it a check mate like situation where the Federal Reserve has to end up coming in and buying treasuries again and they could do this under the guy eyes Credit Suisse says of what's known as yield curve control now that's really interesting and a very fascinating uh phrase because what just happened in Japan well you don't know what just happened to Japan allow me to indulge you oh here's how yield curve control works run with me on this I'm going to keep it as simple as possible okay 10-year treasury in the United States right now is like 3.5 3.7 percent somewhere on there let's say the government comes in and says we don't want it to go any higher than four percent so they actually set a cap they're like we don't want that number to go over four percent and the reason you might not want it to go over four percent is because even though you want to tighten markets a little bit you still want to be accommodative to the market right you don't want to completely tighten Financial conditions to where you have rates so high and so expensive that you walk into a recession this is what Japan is doing they don't want another lost decade they want to keep stimulating their economy at least somewhat and so what they do is they Institute a yield cap and anytime interest rates start approaching that yield cap they push yields down they can push yields down by buying bonds quantitative easing they buy bonds making bonds more expensive pushing yields down now everything's been pretty ordinary in Japan in 2020 to 2021.
things have moved or pretty much been respecting of the yield cap and things uh you know the yield cap has been kept pretty low this is somewhere around a quarter of a percent but it started breaking the yield cap line on the right side that's because people started dumping Japanese bonds and maybe they're buying U.S bonds or other bonds so Japan said uh okay well let's just be less stimulative to our economy let's raise the cap nobody was expecting that cap to be raced and that worked temporarily as the bank of Japan started buying bonds and pushing those yields down that's kind of what we've seen over here but the Futures pricing is problematic because the Futures pricing suggests the uh basically the bank of Japan is going to have to raise the cap again or they're just going to have to keep Printing and printing and printing more money over stimulating potentially the economy again or trying to overstimulate the economy and introducing all of this flood of money into the economy just to keep yields where they want them to be this is roughly the same thing that you could see happen in the United States but with a slightly different story The Fed basically comes in and let's say the 10-year treasury yield is trading for oh I don't know let's just say it's at 3.5 percent and then all of a sudden the treasury market starts becoming disorderly and the FED needs to buy bonds so the government can function and not go bankrupt well the FED could just go um we don't want 10-year treasury yields uh to ensure ordinary functioning of the market to go any higher than 3.25 and so therefore in limited amounts we are going to buy 10-year treasury bonds and we're going to push those yields down meanwhile the treasury Department gets the money they need because nobody else is buying the treasury bonds remember when the FED buys treasury bonds the US government gets the money the US government is like ah yeah it's here we have money to buy to spend and now we can send this money to Ukraine or whatever they want to do with the money right so in other words the FED once again could become the lender of Last Resort for the U.S government and they could do that by pretending to actually want to Institute yield curve control when really what they're actually trying to accomplish is an ordinary Bond or like an orderly bond market now what other massive Market in the world like the fifth sixth fifth or sixth largest economy in the world just had to Institute Bond buying which again is stimulative during inflationary times well remember the United Kingdom they just went through exactly that Liz Trust of the United Kingdom spent 44 days in office and during her 44 days she kind of screwed up the bond market because her Chancellor of the exchequa which is kind of like the treasury secretary kwazi katang he came out and said we are a nation of entrepreneurs okay I don't know why I'm going angry German here but he basically came out and said We're a nation of entrepreneurs and we are going to stimulate our businesses we are going to lower the top tax rates to motivated and incentivize people to work and we're going to take in less money and we're going to spend more and the bond Market's like y'all gonna take in less money and y'all gonna spend more money effort I'm out I'm out that was the that's what the bond market did in the United Kingdom which when people are like I'm out what do they do they sell their bonds the selling of the bonds all of a sudden plummeted the value of bonds yields skyrocketed on the bonds making the financial system really really tight and because the values of these bonds fell margin calls that institutions are going off all over the place all over the place to the point where Margin Call based institutions like who actually handle uh these transfers and the settlement of these exchanges didn't even have enough hours in the day to process all of the margin calls that were happening Pension funds were on the doorstep of bankruptcy because their bond values had plummeted so much and all of a sudden who comes in to save the day as the British pound loses a ton of value and hits parity with the dollar because people are like I'm out get me out of the United Kingdom it's unstable dump the bonds dump the British pounds who comes in to save the day ah well October 11th you get the bank of England who makes a statement dysfunction in this market and the prospect of self-reinforcing fire sale Dynamics pose a material risk to financial stability therefore we are widening our purchases of guilts basically treasuries in the United Kingdom for three days and we will buy an unlimited amount of bonds I'm paraphrasing those sort of last sentence there but anyway that that the bank of England's bailout and the ouster of Liz truss who's now been replaced by Rishi sunak who's now fighting with nursing unions on pay increases uh and uh promising to cut spending of the prior Administration and reducing debt and reducing expenses pounds back up over 22 things are stable again right but it shows you that if the United Kingdom can have a bond market collapse like that could we potentially see the Federal Reserve have to really come bail out the United States to actually provide liquidity to the treasury market is it possible that treasury yields could Spike as nobody starts buying treasuries uh and and people or institutions instead Park their money in the reverse repo field as all of a sudden those yields or rates are even higher yes it's absolutely possible so bottom line out of all of this is as inflation continues to Trend down and rates go up you might have more people with money move their money into stocks and less money into bonds the people who would ordinarily buy bonds might put that money into the reverse repo market now you don't have buyers for treasuries or too few buyers for treasuries now the FED has to step in or they risk yield spiking on treasuries and financial instability in markets so what does the FED do well they don't want instability they come in and they start printing money again and all of a sudden this whole monetary experiment of uh print money print money print money forever continues and then we go into the next iteration of QE forever where basically we never get the federal reserve's balances down because now just for the treasury market to actually function the FED has to bail everyone out this is insane and it could come well to uh to a TV screen or computer screen near you within the next six to 12 months how do you prepare yourself for that well this depends how you want to position yourself some say the beneficiaries of this would actually be the stock market now where you want to position yourself in there is up to you personally it seems like some of the benefit would go to bonds because you'd have a lender of Last Resort coming to buy it's possible to Value those could actually fall before that ever happens so kind of speculating there maybe you just look for long purchases like pricing power stocks that you could kind of buy and and hold on to and build your sort of exposure to in a recessionary environment as hopefully we rotate out of this madness and maybe inflation goes away and what does the FED end up doing after this financial instability well fed starts cutting rates because then you start seeing the reverse repo rate segment go down below where the treasury market is paying people buy treasuries again rates continue to get cut maybe treasuries fall more and you kind of get the stair stepping down and the FED is pretty careful about ever launching QT again or does so in even softer ways until we get those yields slowly coming down again all of that I expect would actually be beneficial for the stock market but it could honestly take another year for that to happen but here's sort of a manuscript of what could be coming down the pike and what Credit Suisse is expecting for the U.S bankruptcy if you like my perspective or how I explain things in this video I am confident you won't regret joining the programs and I'm so excited to have you whether you're looking to build your income throug for real estate real estate agent course your millionaire real estate investing or stocks and psychology money all very popular programs linked down below
Comments 0