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tesla shareholders may be feeling more electric electrified after the company's five for one stock split uh took effect at today's opening bell shares the electric car maker up six percent joining us now discuss tesla and a possible tick-tock deal is dan ives managing director at web bush securities dan always good to speak with you about 87 questions to ask you here but let me start off with uh you're out the note this morning you adjusted your your price target to affect the stock split how will you know when it's time to downgrade the stock sure it's a great question and i think it really comes down to deliveries and especially china right now everything we're seeing it continues to be a tick up in terms of overall demand and the overall opportunity and look this is the drum roll and the battery day i think battery day is going to be a massive catalyst with the million mile battery and further you know showing where they are relative to other competitors that's the key in terms of this tesla story and right now i still think it's a green light who is driving the latest rally dan are institutions coming in uh to the tesla story or is this purely speculative trading by people on robin hood yeah i think there's a misperception a bit on the retail burst institution i can tell you i've talked to more institutional investors in the last six months on tesla than the last six years because the stories change fundamentally profitability wise as well as even more generous pms you need to start to focus on the ev market and even from a valuation perspective especially on the indexing with the s p it's changed the game a bit of course there's a retail momentum no doubt but i do think there's a little bit of a misperception that it's all retail i believe there's a strong institution because there's a change in the fundamental story of tesla danny ness here what about in china there's so much competition for tesla so we saw that x-bang went public last week its share price sort 40 on its first day of trading we're seeing neo that that stock is up more than 350 percent year-to-date and neo announced a subscription for its battery pack basically lowering the price of its vehicles and also announced that it perhaps may be expanding into europe so what do you see for tesla when it comes to these competitors like neo for example yeah neo a phenomenal company and everything that's happening in china as well as obviously so a lot more innovative companies even you know on the horizon comes down to it's four percent pen trade today in terms of the ev market the eevee market in china could be five to seven x what it is in the us and you're just starting to see tip of the iceberg there and for tesla it comes down to giga giga continues to be giga 3 in terms of what they built that's the moot and ultimately for them it just starts with giga and obviously what they're seeing from a demand perspective is you're really selling like hot cakes in terms of everything we see in china despite the skeptic saying otherwise danny say institutions are getting involved in tesla is one way to think about it that institutions are betting that the gas engine in cars is really goes away in 10 years well i don't think it goes away i think they're betting that share is 10 versus percent today because if that is and you miss the tesla story especially from an indexing perspective you know you're trying to figure out what font to use in the resume so i think it really comes down to brian is that the profitability story of tesla and what we've seen with demand it's changed the paradigm and what musk has been able to accomplish in fremont is really a game changer now of course they have to continue to execute stocks had a huge move any speed bump stock will get you know hit significantly but that's the difference that's why institutionally speaking especially on the profitability side why there's really been a paradigm change over at tesla hey dad it's uh dan howelly i want to kind of switch over to uh apple and ask where you think the stock is going with the the new split uh uh rate and i guess you know do you see uh the next iphone cycle really having to to power uh the stock going forward and what happens if we don't see a a super cycle this time around yeah look dan knows you know you i think you know apple as well as anyone i think great questions because it's a super cycle that that's in my opinion it's a once in a decade opportunity in terms of what we see 350 million of 950 million iphones worldwide and window of an upgrade opportunity and that's the key here now of course the services getting re-rated i mean if i look back like six nine months services business may be getting assigned by the street evaluation to 300 billion and that's worth nine to 950 billion and that's why ultimately i think apple is a name it's not just re-rating but you're going into a super cycle and i think you're starting to see that combination happen which ultimately i think is really going to be the next leg to the story dan is there uh apple it has been re-rated is there do you think the market is positioning for an unnamed product uh or an unclear product coming from apple over the next 12 to 18 months we know the iphones we know the airpods we know the mac is there something they could come out that can really change the game in another category well and i don't think it's being necessarily priced in but when you look at the ar headset and some of the other things that they're working on those could be the next pieces because it all comes down to when airpods came out it was kind of used to shrug the shoulders from an investor perspective that's a 30 billion dollar revenue stream so now services is 60 billion so that's a 100 billion incremental just from those two areas and i think ar is probably the one area there's a focus on i think the other focus is that services business on the video streaming side do they eventually rip the band-aid off and buy a studio from a content perspective because that's the missing piece remember they built a castle a mansion but there's not too much furniture in there with nine or ten shows and uh dad i just want to touch on real quick uh tick tock and where you where you see this whole conversation uh with the company going and who may end up scooping up what it could mean if it does go to microsoft i mean do you think that it it would be a benefit to them in the long term and do you think they understand how to fully run a teen-oriented social network we've seen their success on linkedin but this would be a different kind of animal really yeah and look i still think 90 chance it's microsoft walmart now obviously a wrench thrown into it with china getting involved in the new export but but i believe that slows down doesn't necessarily derail i think microsoft walmart 35 billion continues to be the error code a deal gets done from microsoft i think it will be a part of a re-rating i mean as much as nadel has had the golden touch on enterprise and the cloud strategy consumers really been on a treadmill for the last decade this would give him a major horse in the race of course it meets a lot of central walmart given the e-commerce capabilities and this is going to have other chapters for the soap opera given the complexity of the deal negotiations but i think at the end of the day in the coming days and a week we're sitting here with a microsoft tick tock deal rather than oracle which to me is still more of a head scratcher and a long shot dan how does this how would this deal get structured if you're a walmart microsoft i'm looking through the walmart prism how would they benefit how would they make money well for walmart it's similar what tick tock's done in china with their app there she almost qvc like in terms of the cross pollination from an e-commerce perspective this would really give them something to go against amazon in terms of you know all those consumers as well as the cross e-commerce platform that's why for walmart for them to hop into this negotiation i think was a no-brainer and i think they're looking at how it's been used in china in terms of the opportunity now in terms of the the structure is it in 90 10 and 85 15 what type of jv ish type structure but ultimately i think walmart getting involved really cemented the deal from a microsoft perspective now dan uh let's say this deal does get through walmart gets its piece microsoft gets its piece what is the next evolution of tick tock what doesn't it do now that these companies could make it do well i think it's going to be more about the modernization of it rather than touching you know anything that's really been a golden jewel and it goes back to you know in redmond i have a lot of confidence in terms of redmond doing a good job containing tick-tock and taking it to the next level i think it's gonna be more cross-pollination more content-driven i think that's something you're going to see and really for them it's monetizing it i mean it goes back to instagram pre facebook and post facebook and i think on a broader platform with more distribution and the microsoft brand there's a lot of different avenues they could take this and that's why nadella and from microsoft i mean it's really viewed as christmas came early in terms of this asset
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