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Americans it is officially liquidation day that's right not Liberation day but liquidation day we have just seen the largest scale of tariffs since World War II The Nay is crashing 2.2% that's actually a lot for them you've got Bitcoin rotating straight down from its enthusiasm now sitting at about 85 which is kind of roughly where it started but it did run almost up to 89k there under some enthusiasm because Trump kind of took a while to get to the punchline and I want to save you the effort because boy oh boy the punchline is this good old chart right here this chart is the punchline the idea is that Mr lutnick has taken the last 30 days and he's actually sat down to put together his list of the dirty 60 they have a list of about 60 different countries that they want to specifically tariff every single country in the world you know we got like what 192 of them or whatever 10% tariff Baseline we start a 10% no negotiations okay well this is a game Cher first of all because I want you to remember where we started when you actually weigh the tariffs by percent of goods that are traded on those tariffs and you weigh those tariff rates I want you to understand what we're starting with this is what we're starting with and this is from the World Bank Hong Kong no tariffs Singapore no tariffs a lot of people call it Singapore Inc Germany 1.3% France 1.3% Italy 13 Canada 14 United States 1.5% okay Donald Trump's proposals now to put a 10% floor on everyone is greater than every single other actual trade dollar weighted tariff that exists Trump's proposal goes as high as over 30% for some countries and that's because lutnick has sat down and decided you know what we're going to do is we're going to bundle together every possible thing that we could say bad about another country such as oh well other countries manipulate their currencies or they use child labor or anything basically that makes them different emission standards whatever anything that makes them different we will consider that a tax on American Products which I get the argument you know if other countries are legally using children and we're not that's bull crap get it but understand what you're toying with here for a moment you are toying with a US economy which relies about 133% on it's GDP from trade in other words 133% of our GDP comes directly from Imports okay when you compare back to the Great Depression we only relied on Imports for about 3.9% of our damn trade so now all of a sudden we are imposing on that I think the next step is that country all of a sudden we are imposing some of the greatest tariffs that we have ever seen suggesting even that smooth Holly didn't go far enough we are imposing some of the greatest regime changing tariffs ever this is way worse than people expected mind you we're imposing some of the greatest regime changing tariffs ever at a time would we're actually more reliant on Imports than we had been in history now Donald Trump says but other countries aren't being fair to us they they allow us to import you know one quart of milk this was his line oh they let us import one quart of milk at a very very low tariff rate and then they charge us 200% on other milk okay this is a reference to Canada and it's total fugazy and this is the problem like you have to sit here for 5 hours and break down all the stuff he just said and tell you what's true and what's false and look I'll I'll tell you what he's right when he says for example we're doing a great job at the border hats off he's kicking ass at the border illegal migrants C caught crossing the US Mexico border are now at the lowest level ever recorded per Reuters with data going back to when they started the series in 2000 Donald Trump is kicking butt over there but this idea that you know Canadians are paying 200% on American milk is bull crap how do we know that well because we could look at the data on the milk that we've sent the $1.1 billion of dairy that we have sent to Canada which is up 55% from covid levels 2020 by the way zero zero was subject to a triple digit tariff they have some of these outlining quotas so that we just don't dump an infinite amount of milk in their economy and then Crush their own Dairy Farmers okay they're cold half the year they need the help give him a break now look I'm a free trade buff I think we should have free trade and I will make a bet that I guarantee we will return to free trade by the end of the decade I suspect within the first 6 months of 2029 assuming Donald Trump actually leaves office in January 2029 because the next Administration will push us back to free trade Donald Trump I hope he will but I don't know if he will but this idea of kind tariffs this is the greatest fugazi I've ever heard in my life these are not kind tariffs these are the worst tariffs that have ever existed I don't actually think they're going to stick I think this is designed to create absolute panic because that's exactly what this is doing now these tariffs don't actually go into effect immediately Donald Trump knows this this is part of Donald Trump's art of the deal Chaos Theory whatever the hell you want to call it you you can't predict what he does and that's the point nobody went into today expecting their let me show you the chart and and kind tariffs to be 30 something per tariffs on China nobody expected that to happen now we have to understand when some of these tariffs are actually going to go into effect uh so let's take a look at this so uh in terms of when these tariffs will go into effect Baseline Tariff of 10% will go into effect April 5 at 12:01 a.m.
so April 5 12:01 a.m. that's when these tariffs go into effect that would be let's see Thursday Friday that's Saturday Saturday Sunday morning is somewhere around there uh reciprocal tariffs won't go into effect until April 9th at 12:01 a.m. so you have about a week to to panic and figure out all the details of this tariffs on uh Pharmaceuticals semiconductors and critical minerals were not mentioned yet that's because they're still coming all of this Authority is being imposed under the uh International emergency economic Powers Act that's going to be the basis for lawsuits Donald Trump calls these kind reciprocal tariffs I call them the RW I'm sorry I really Tred to best to be in the middle these are stupid these are economy crushing tariffs and they are not kind they are very very aggressive now again if if he's able to use this as a negotiation over the next week fantastic you'll notice that Mexico is actually not on this list which is very interesting no Mexico on here no Canada on here USMC compliant components are being excluded from this uh and then Donald Trump mentioned that certain corporations and companies have exclusions as well he specifically by name mentioned companies not including Tesla but he mentioned companies like Facebook for having promised $500 billion of investments in into America over the next few years now that's very interesting because we have not heard that announcement from meta we've heard $65 billion from meta we have not heard $500 billion but then again the game all of these companies are playing is they're simply taking their cash flow or the R&D budgets that they would be spending anyway they're rebranding it as an investment into America which a lot of they would be investing anyway and then they're going to Trump and saying look over the next 10 years we're going to do XYZ Donald Trump talks about how wonderful it is that Taiwan semiconductor is building a factory in uh Arizona but totally neglects to mention that the chips act helped bring them here with subsidized manufacturing grants to actually get a chip plant to function in America because what's the reality is anybody who actually starts a factory in America is going to get absolutely creamed when we go back to free trade and that's why a lot of these companies that are promising these massive hundred billion doll Investments or whatever they're probably not actually going to make those Investments any time soon because they're just going to wait and see how quickly we return to free trade and then they can end up going to announce these factories in Mexico or wherever they want I personally see in the future not too long future I think Optimus robots will probably be manufactured in Mexico because you raise the standard of living in the in America by providing Optimus robots and you raise the standard of living by Manufacturing robotss in Mexico where you can raise the uh uh minimum wage from you know three bucks or whatever they earn over there to maybe $350 to $4 an hour which is a boon to their economy and it's a boon to our economy because we get deflationary robots helping us do what we want to do that's the way a global economy works now all of a sudden that is considered though globalist and fake news and evil well that's fugazi okay this is obviously an economic point that I very much disagree with Donald Trump on and I think he's lighting a fire uh with with with quite frankly a level of a shock to the economy that shouldn't be lit right now like if we just if we just went easy right now and we got our free trade within the next month maybe we could still pull off a soft landing and we don't go into recession in which case please I want to go back to buy the dip Kevin and being bullish but anyway Apple got mentions here open AI got mentions here Nvidia got mentions here tsmc meta Honda honde got mentions even Thailand that was his phrase okay I'm making fun it sorry I shouldn't do that no mention of Tesla Trump tariffs will cover cars light trucks engines lithium ion batteries will be included tires shocks spark plugs wires will be included laptops and desktop tariffs are coming uh Donald Trump mentions that again these are kind tariffs because Biden manufacturer or a hemorrhaged manufacturing jobs okay this this is not entirely true what Donald Trump is doing is he's referencing Co in the manufacturing jobs that were lost during co uh but he does accurately say that there's a single Shipyard in China that produces more ships than anyone else this is true uh that Shipyard by the way is called the China State ship building Corporation China is doing the opposite of us mind you right now they are stimulating like crazy and I'll tell you in just a moment about uh about China but first quick mention to those of you watching this on replay if you haven't heard yet house hack is giving you an opportunity to diversify away from the insanity the stock market you get into basically a subscriber benefit of a deal where if you watch my channel I I I want to be known as a person in 10 years back where you look back and go I'm so grateful I invested with Kevin because it wasn't as big uh as it is you know is now as it was there what you get what I'm trying to say in other words it exploded is my goal I want you to be able to look at these shares and go wow they're worth 10 20x in the future because that's what I want to build with house saac when we IPO this in the future hopefully 28 to 2030 we'll see but check it out go to house.com you don't have to be accredited to invest we build fix up and manage the properties we've got some really cool things coming as well in the way of announcements and really big upside potentials for the companies uh you get 100% of The Upside for everything house Haack does and uh you get 5% paid to you as a distribution from our rents per year which is awesome you get that distribution monthly which is kind of cool you could be accredited or non- accredited and you could check out all of the properties that we own what we do over at the house hack.com webbsite see our properties view our financials look at before and afters you can see everything you want over at house act.com we completely remade the website go check it out that said we got to talk about China so the thing about China is China is less exposed to these tariffs than they ever have been before uh and that's actually really important because if you look at Donald Trump's sheet China is at the top of the sheet China is estimated to charge the US 67% which is you know wild relative to what China actually charges us based on the actual uh tariff rates that they have uh China's actual tariffs are probably closer to about 2.2% you you could see that on screen here 2.2% and these are based on 2022 numbers right so we're about 15 China is at about 22 so this idea that China is sitting at 67% and we're going to be nice to them and only charge them uh you know half of that is really a concocted number but it's fine because it's probably Donald Trump's method of negotiating that said CNBC argues no we don't want to negotiate with these countries they need to pay up so Donald Trump is calling these the discounted okay you get a coupon code and the European Union being slapped till 20% they've already vowed retaliation we know China is going to retaliate and Mexico Canada are going to try to be friendly to us so we'll see what happens with them uh both of them want a free trade deal in a continuation of the usmca so we'll see what happens here Canada and Mexico will remain subject to the 25% fentanyl tariffs so you're not getting any kind of removal of that uh and the United Kingdom has already just responded saying that we have a range of tools at our disposal and we will not hesitate to act uh now UK wor noting they're at the bottom of this list somewhere in here at 10% Singapore oh there's singap Singapore is at 10% that's interesting because Singapore doesn't actually have tariffs against us their rate against US is zero but they're getting the flat 10% interesting uh but anyway United Kingdom is on here at 10% as well they don't get any discount apparently because they hit the Baseline of 10% Donald Trump's Administration is also beginning the process of reclassifying some federal agency employees to remove job protections uh Trump tariffs do not uh impose an additional 10% on Canada and Mexico but we're retaining the 25% uh uh related tariffs for Fentanyl and the usmca exemption so clarifying that a little bit uh and uh let's see here European commission president uh will deliver statement at 5: a.m.
Brussel time 1300 or uh 0300 GMT I put my pilot watch on to figure out what GMT time it is it's uh 2114 UTC okay anyway so this is a lot folks this is a surprise uh Bloomberg intelligence right now is discussing quote I would be surprised if economists don't start ratch up us recession probability calculations pretty quickly on this the US does not have enough manufacturing CA uh cap capacity goodness gracious to replace all its goods Imports which means a very significant price shock is looming the National Restaurant Association said that new reciprocal tariffs will raise prices for consumers who are very sensitive to costs restaurants raise prices about 30% while food costs have gone up 40% already the fertilizer industry did not get a shout out here uh we've got uh the association of equipment manufacturing saying equipment manufacturers appreciate Trump's administration's commitment to Reviving American manufacturing while we agree a key to strong US economy is building more products in America we need a certain trade environment to make investments in domestic manufacturing we are concerned that reciprocal on our trading partners will hurt our industry and our customers tariffs are just one tool at the administration's disposal so in other words they sound pissed uh high yield credit is now worsening this is likely going to lead to more credit softening that's a Black Swan risk mind you more of a gry swan risk since we're kind of somewhat aware of it retail Federation says these tariffs are going to equal more anxiety no duh reports indicate Canada Mexico will not be subject to reciprocal tariffs announced on Liberation day that us CA exemptions will remain in place we already talked about that but they still have the 25% tariffs previously mentioned that's why they're not on the chart here fine uh let's see here okay statements from critics of trump and tariffs are starting to come in former policy adviser blah blah blah Americans have a simple request of Donald Trump lower prices however this is likely to increase prices okay whatever now now we're just getting into some political commentary I'll skip that uh continuation of USMC compliant goods from Canada and Mexico being exempt from tariffs is a major relief for oil Traders almost all of the roughly 4 million barrels of crude that flow from Canada to the US is compliant and therefore should keep shipments coming this is also good news from consumers worried about higher pump prices yeah good good good okay so so I mean like there's some good in this but boy in terms of some of these other companies this is a this is a hosing mind you I was just getting ready to say why Canada or China is a little bit more resilient to some of this craziness they are partnering with all of our other partners Canada is talking to to Japan and South Korea which they haven't done for 5 years on free trade China is offering everybody free trade who trades freely with China this is the opposite of what the United States is doing the United States has punishingly high interest rates and high costs right now whereas China is literally stimulating their economy uh they are encouraging consumers to spend they are encouraging businesses to invest they are doing the opposite of America right now okay Zin ping if you're out there pardon me for all I have said in the past I think what you are doing right now is actually pretty smart uh that said I still don't know if I could ever go to China because uh I think you all are just going to kill me uh but anyway uh sorry I blamed you for Co it was your fault though so uh that said I shouldn't say that anyway uh so that said uh let's see here uh we I mean I don't know if this gives us the certainty we were hoping for because this is a lot worse than we thought you know going into this we thought we were going to get like tranches like 105 20% like these tariffs are way higher than we expected uh this is probably why the Nay is down let me see what it is right now 225 nay 225 uh oh okay well the nikay Futures right okay so the actual nikay right now isn't isn't open of course not yet Futures are down about 2.2% and then we've got uh obviously the post Market here is reacting to some of this oh wow Tesla now down almost 6% a lot of the you know retail really buys the dip on Tesla during the day we saw that happen today we talked about that in the alpha report but I will say the NASDAQ 100 being down 3.4% this is crazy this is a huge movement in after hours how rare it is for the NASDAQ to be uh down or up 3% on a day if you're not part of the course member live streams yet you're missing out on the live streams join us we have a subscription it's going up in price on April 15th but you could lock in the price Forever at today's low price if you go to meetkevin.com and check it out now now uh that said we've got Bitcoin now at 843 much lower than where we were before the event which was about 863 uh lot of stocks selling down here you've got AMD down 4% Tesla's down 6% bonds are are rallying on this uh so very interesting uh okay so then what else here let's see let's see let's see here okay uh okay let me see what other data we had uh Donald Trump does mention the United States trade representative report on trade barriers however it's worth noting that in the report there's actually no mention of vat tariffs being a trade barrier Donald Trump says industry will be reborn today and he wants to make America wealthy again he says we won't be ripped off any longer that this is a historic announcement and we're going to raise trillions to pay down our debt yeah not if we go into a recession and our debt actually explodes because we have to bail ourselves out of a recession honestly I was like it was like this close to getting excited again this morning that we could get through these negative cataly and finally start looking for deals again in the stock market just freaking ruin it pissed anyway uh we talked about the milk from Canada oh yeah this argument Donald Trump talks about this argument that prior to 1913 tariffs funded most of our government listen yes it's true tariffs made up a substantial portion of our federal government prior to 1913 because our federal government was Tiny we didn't have an income tax until 1913 because we didn't have schools funded by the government or hospitals funded by the government we didn't have roads or highways funded by the government we didn't have social freaking security we didn't have a World War I to go through we didn't have a World War II to go through we didn't have Medicare we didn't have Medicaid we didn't have defense spending Social Security didn't begin until 1935 no freaking crap our federal government was way smaller then than it is now so so sorry but the comparison is apples to oranges this is like straight out of vake ramy's Playbook where where he reads something sizzly and then wants you to melt your brain and how eloquently he speaks to you with without assuming that you're going to look up the actual facts it's a scam just like his pharmaceutical company that his mom rewrote a uh you know pharmaceutical paper on suggesting a dead drug wasn't actually dead raised billions of dollars from unsuspecting investors from it scamming them by basically bankrupting the company becoming a billionaire himself and then going to start something else that is slimy to me just like this suggestion that you know we should just go back to what we had before okay you want to go back to the m 1800s no more Social Security no more Medicaid no more Medicare no more defense spending no more uh you know colleges funded by the government no more highways funded by the government and and cut the Department of Defense 8% a year forget about it why don't you cut it like you know divide the defense budget by 200 and then you'll be back to what you had back then it's crazy you know back then World War I cost us 52% of our gross national product 52% is how much of our government uh uh uh production or our total national production was spent on a war economy in World War I today we spent like 3% it's crazy well actually probably it might even be less that's probably about right 800 850 Bill divided by $26 trillion economy yeah 3.3% of our gross domestic product is spent on dep Department of Defense spending you know and that includes all the handouts to Ukraine which I mean don't even get me started on that we know we we know and I I pulled this up the other day but I think it's so interesting we know that this war is basically just the CIA directing bombs at Russia to keep Russia weak okay is really really fascinating you should read some of the stories they have on this stuff it's crazy uh but anyway like when you compare the actual facts and data you start going holy smokes I like this is crazy to compare to those times and this is why I'm saying the fact that at a time when we are three times as riing on Global Imports for our GDP to impose tariffs that are based on Looney Bin numbers is idiotic these numbers are straight from the Looney Bin they're not real it's basically like Macy's telling you you're going to buy a Hugo Boss from Macy's for $7,000 but today only you could get 50% off if you open a card you get another 25% off if you use this triple double up coupon you get another 25% off oh my gosh you got a suit for $200 at Macy's that msrps for Seven Grand all hail Macy's it's a scam it's ridiculous anyway I'm disappointed in this I wanted to turn bullish damn it I'm tired of being a little bear Australia's PM says Australia will not impose reciprocal tariffs tariffs not the act of a friend decision push-up cost for American household us tariffs totally unwarranted we will continue to make the strongest case for these unjustified tariffs to be removed from our exports okay whatever Australia and then you know yesterday people were like oh well Israel is going to remove all of their tariffs on the US why doesn't every other country you know what I don't understand is how can people like Bill schackman have so much damn money and say like and purposefully mislead people so damn badly that's what pisses me off I don't I don't understand how do they make so much money Lying by Omission can somebody please help me understand that because it drives me nuts it just it feels wrong okay look at this here I I'll show it to you Bill lman Israel sets the example of how all of our allies should preemptively respond to Donald Trump's desire level to level the playing field for America quote breaking Israel has removed all tariffs on American Products no flying cooties for 40 years 98% of our trade with Israel has been free only 2% of trade with Israel has been subject to tax to tariff and it's on stupid stuff like apples that makes Israel like 11 million dollars a year and I'm talking about Apple Computers I'm talking about actual apples like Granny Smiths okay wait a second though that brings in about1 million of revenue for Israel we just gave them $3.2 billion in military aid in 2023 $1 million tax revenue $3.2 billion doll in military aid you got it Trump free trade no problem Trump you win no $1 million on tariffs for you Trump we love you Trump you're a hero you're doing what's great for everyone America first that's the Israeli POV meanwhile They're laughing at the bank looking at the $3.2 million and Munitions they just got from America this is stupid this is so stupid a I can't handle this anymore I got to go I just I'm going to have to start drinking alcohol on stream again or something this is like I I think I need Tesla to Gila or something I can't handle this this is this is this is insane this is not logical it needs to end please make this movie end it's a bad movie I don't like it I'm going to go now
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