저자: Kevin · 외국인
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대통령의 4/2 관세 발표(Liberation Day)를 앞두고 백악관 내부 우려가 있다는 보도를 소개. 애틀랜타 연은 1분기 GDP 추정치는 -3.7%, 금 수입 조정 모델은 -1.4%이나 실제 확정까지 수개월 걸려 경기침체 확정은 불가. 하이일드 스프레드는 여전히 낮고, 엔비디아 주가 급락 위험과 10년물 6% 금리 상승을 회색백조 리스크로 언급. 코어위브는 엔비디아 지지 매수 의심 거래 관찰. 관세 발표 전 불확실성으로 주문이 위축될 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Could the worst be over? We have a little bit of color on White House officials who are freaking out over tariffs coming out tomorrow on Liberation Day. But that freaking out is actually giving us a little bit of insight into what actually could happen tomorrow, leaving the stock market to maybe be a little bit happier on this.
We'll talk about that. But we'll also talk about could the worst of these recession worries be over now that the first quarter is over. A lot of folks obviously , which just once again collapsed on April 1st. I hope it's a joke, but I don't think it is. The Atlanta Fed just updated their model from -2.8% to -3.7% for first quarter GDP.
Now if you remove or adjust for gold imports the shenanigans that that can do we for to uh GDP models we actually find that we have now an alternate model forecast which adjusts for gold and it sits at -1.4%. Which basically says that based on the data we currently have through the beginning of April for January, February, March we're looking at a negative 1.4 GDP read.
Now, does that mean with certainty we're going into a recession? No. That's because first of all, the April uh data that we just got today is just the beginning of the data that we're going to get. In fact, a lot of the data we got this morning, like the Jolts or construction spending data, a lot of this information is old.
Jolts refers to February data. So, we don't actually really even have March data yet. And we won't have all of March data really until closer to the end of May. And we probably won't get real Q1 GDP numbers until closer to June or July, which means it's going to be quite a while before we know if we had a recession, at least set up in the first quarter.
Because remember, a recession is typically two quarters of negative GDP. But even when we had that in the past, like in the first and second quarter of 2022, well, the economists who decide whether or not we're in a recession looked and said, "Well, may have had two quarters of negative GDP, but the employment market was too strong, so we're not going to say it was a recession.
We're going to change uh revise how we define a recession." The problem though is most economists who study recessions look at this data and say we weren't told we were leading into a recession in 2007 either. In fact, we had estimates at the end of 2007 that growth was actually sitting somewhere around half of a percent.
The problem was it was somewhere around 6 to 12 months later that we ended up getting revisions so large that we pushed those half percent positives into negatives. And that's how in hindsight we ended up in a recession. So even if some of these numbers end up positive for Q1, we might not know for six to 12 months.
So this is why looking at these data sets is usually not the best tool for trying to understand are we actually going into a recession. And instead we like to look at things like what's going on with the labor market or what's going on in credit spreads. And credit spreads is a really interesting kind of complicated place to look.
The easy way to look at this is recently there's been a tiny little spike, but when you zoom out the spike is pretty tiny. When you look at credit spreads, think of this fancy phrase as a way of saying insurance. When insurance costs go up, either insurance companies are more nervous about the risk or more people are demanding insurance, right?
So, in other words, people are asking for higher prices on that insurance or more people are demanding that insurance. Uh, and so what we've seen is junk bond spreads at least quote still remain at multi-deade lows. Now Bloomberg argues that this is odd and that this could actually be a gray swan risk of recession.
Now what the hell is that? Well, like a black swan is a reference to something we didn't see coming. A gray swan was something that we could look at every single day on the chart and go, "Oh, it's ticking up. It's ticking up." It's basically something that we see coming, but we're not paying attention to it or we're not pricing in.
Uh, and so Bloomberg is making this argument that credit spreads, if we were to be going into a recession, should be a lot wider. In other words, those insurance costs should be a lot wider. And the fact that we're not making that movement yet could create a shock. Now, a shock is something that's really, really bad for an economy.
And it's usually a moment like a Lehman Brothers or a Black Monday. It's usually some moment when somebody spilled a bunch of gasoline where somebody throws the cigarette in that gasoline. That is the poopy dupy moment. The poopy dooy moments are the moments where all of a sudden the spread between the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year yield spread apart.
See, that's a version of a spread as well, just like these sort of junk bot spreads. Uh, and when you get that sort of spread above a spread of 50 to 90, you're usually in a recession. Today, we're just chilling out somewhere around 0.29. Like, who cares? We're not close to that 50 level yet. Uh, and it's similar here to what Bloomberg is suggesting that, hey, you know, Gray Swan risks uh include the following.
Take a look at this. included a crash in Nvidia shares, 10-year yields above 6%, and a US growth shock. These are risks pointed out by Numeura Holdings. In other words, economic risks for everyone would be the 10-year yield rising above 6%. Most people think it's actually going to go down now due to a slowdown in the economy, but this could be an inflationary risk, like a hyperinflationary risk.
obviously some form of growth slowdown in stocks which we're already seeing uh but potentially true not fully priced again the stock market has priced in a little bit we already seen Nvidia shares down somewhere around 30 40% from peak but they see even more of a potential crash here maybe as sort of a leading indicator for an AI bubble a lot of people for that one by the way pay attention to coreweave stock now because coreweave is basically signed up or been signed up by Nvidia as their sort of little bailout facility uh Nvidia in other words is going to spend up to $250 million propping that stock up every time it drops under $40 and then they stop.
So, it's really interesting because when you look at the price action for the stock, go on sort of the hour basis here. Yesterday, we fell all the way down to 36 bucks and the volume on the day was pretty low. You could see the highest volume on an hour basis was about 4 million to 2 million shares.
Beginning of the day, four, end of the day, you were sitting around 2.4. Well, beginning of the day today, we were around 5.7 million shares. And then all of a sudden out of nowhere, which is very unusual in the middle of the day, all of a sudden out of nowhere, 8 million shares trade and oh my gosh, wow, look, the price goes up.
A lot of people think this is the Nvidia bailout facility pushing it up to 40 bucks and then traders are like, "Oh my gosh, this one's going up." And then you pump it up even higher, right? Uh so it's an interesting bailout mechanism that's happening in plain sight right now. And it does make a lot of people wonder, yeah, maybe we should be paying attention to some of these risks.
But anyway, uh this this idea about tariffs freaking out the White House is something that's worth talking about as well because of course, you know, there are always people who are worried about recession. This Q1 Atlanta Fed GDP data is scary, but we don't have all of the data yet. Uh and even if we had all the data, it's always subject to change.
Uh so that instead makes people very interested in this quote unquote freaking out behind closed doors. You can see that here uh in the Daily Mail. They suggest that White House officials are quietly freaking out uh about Trump's upcoming liberation day. Behind closed doors, top administration officials are deeply concerned with many quietly admitting they're unsure what the president is actually going to do.
No one knows what the f is going on. him out in the link down below. One White House ally close to Trump's inner circle told Politico, "The president has signaled that more than $1 trillion in trade could be affected. Keep in mind the president's goal is to make it so that those making under $150,000 a year don't have to pay taxes because we're able to raise somewhere around $600 billion in tariff revenue.
Economists report that the problem with this is you're going to have to add a multiplier effect and whatever you think it's going to take to get to $600 billion in revenue. You're going to have to add some kind of multiple to that because you're going to destroy demand. So it might actually take 40% or so more tariffs than you would otherwise think.
White House officials have spent the past several weeks privately assuring business leaders, financial executives, and Republican lawmakers that a cleaner, more stable trade policy is coming. This would be great. This is something that a lot of folks know is that and we were talking about this in the courses uh this morning that in in our course member live stream as as well of those the alpha reports that we do.
A lot of what you find is uh you know with worse stock pricing right before a catalyst event because usually the catalyst event is one that gives you clarity and clarity is something that can be traded and is something that could be planned around whereas a lack of clarity is is much more complicated to trade or plan around and then that leads to withheld orders which leads to depressed Atlanta Fed GDP potentially.
Uh now you know quick mention if you haven't heard of it yet we have a meet Kevin membership you get every trade alert every stream private live stream every alpha report access to all the courses in uh one small daily cost. It's pretty inexpensive right now and that's because we're about to raise the prices.
We expect to raise the prices uh by April 15th. So the middle of the month right around tax day there. Uh so check that out. You can uh pay monthly, quarterly or annual. Give it a try annually. Give it a try. Meet Kevin membership over at meetke.com. If you don't like it, you can cancel, but otherwise, we'll be raising prices on April 15th.
Uh, and if you lock in your prices now, you'll lock in those prices forever. But otherwise, a big price increase coming April 15th. So, going back to this piece right here, we see that White House officials have spent the past several weeks privately assuring business leaders, financial executives, and Republican lawmakers that a clearer, more stable trade agenda is coming.
The problem with that is folks like uh uh right, you know, you've got JD Vance, Susie Wilds, and uh Treasury Secretary Bessett suggesting, hey, we need a more targeted tariff plan or at least some kind of structured roll out so businesses could plan. But Donald Trump has actually been fluctuating between should we just have sectoral tariffs, which would be, you know, all pharmaceuticals or all chips, or blanket tariffs, such as blanket tariffs on all of the dirty 15.
Here's the Wall Street Journal's take on what the dirty 15 could be. China, EU, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada, India, Thailand, Switzerland, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia, South Africa. You you'll notice that individual EU members are not listed here. Just have sort of the bulk of EU mentioned here.
Uh then uh and that's also where you'll see a lot of the VAT taxes, the value added taxes, which aren't really tariffs. They're just sort of tariffs on goods. Well, I shouldn't say tears, their taxes. There's sales taxes on goods uh in various different countries. Uh and um this is normal. You go to Europe, you see substantially higher sales taxes on goods than the 6 to 8% were blessed with over here.
But anyway, uh we may find sectoral tariffs on April 2nd. We may not, said one official to political granted a condition of anonymity due to ongoing deliberations. In other words, nobody really knows what's going to happen. Now, we will find out tomorrow at uh 400 p.m. at 400 p.m. Eastern time, 1:00 p.m.
California time, Donald Trump will be holding a uh White House presser in the Rose Garden to announce Liberation Day. Now, note this is the minute the market closes. So, in other words, we're going to go from closing bell, and I'll live stream it. We're going to go from closing bell to Danny T liberating us.
So, we'll see how it goes. Anyway, earlier this week, he quote blindsided staff with a sudden 25% increase on auto imports, forcing the White House to delay afternoon programming and scrambled to formalize the decision. So, in other words, people feel like there's a little bit of sort of fly by nightishness going on here with Donald Trump where it's sort of like, today I feel like we're going to do this and you know what, now we're going to do this.
This is what's leading a lot of folks to say that, you know, we we could end up not actually getting a lot of clarity tomorrow because you know what? if Trump gives certain countries a break or certain companies a break. He said he would there wouldn't be a lot. Then he said there would be more exemptions and he might be kinder and then he said he might not be that kind.
So in other words, we have absolutely no idea what's going on, which I think is the point for Trump. Sort of art of the deal. Lutnik says this is going to be a historic day for American workers. Uh other insiders say he goes into the Oval Office and tells the president whatever he wants to hear. one Trump ally calling Lutnik an effing nightmare who backs Trump's instincts without considering broader consequences.
All right, so he's got a Trump yesmen in Lutnik. Uh and apparently there's this inner quote that says if the economy tanks then fine, the economy tanks because the president truly believes it will rebound and countries will give in. Others quietly hope Trump's affection for the stock market might steer him away from more shock.
Senators like John Kennedy and Mitch McConnell are saying, "Basically, all we can do right now is complain because if we really screw this up, we might only have two years as we get hosed during the midterms." Okay. Wow, that's a lot to take in. So, I think the bottom line out of all of this is set your calendar for 400 p.m.
Eastern and 1:00 p.m. California time tomorrow. I'll be streaming it live. I'm excited to be there to bring the the event. Uh well, you know, I'll be here in in the studio. I'll bring some sound. How about that? We'll bring some soundboards by tomorrow. Uh and uh yeah, we'll take it from there. So, it's going to be very exciting.
Uh thank you so much for subscribing and watching here. Let me know what other news content you'd like me to cover and I'll keep covering it for you. Thanks so muc.
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