저자: JuliaLaRoche · 외국인
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결론: 차마스 팔리하피티야의 SPAC을 통한 오픈도어 상장은 주택 구매 방식을 바꿀 수 있는 거래로 소개되지만, 영상은 특정 자산의 방향을 예측하지 않는다. 거래 개요: 차마스가 SPAC 방식으로 부동산 기업 오픈도어를 공개시장에 상장시키는 계획을 발표했고, 이 발표 후 주가가 급등했다. 차마스 논리(5가지 순풍): 1) 대도시 금융위기 이후 공급 부족에 따른 주택 가격 부담 2) 연방 SALT 공제 폐지로 뉴욕·캘리포니아 등에서 이탈 증가 3) 밀레니얼 세대의 결혼·가정 형성에 따른 주택 수요 4) 팬데믹 이후 재택근무의 지속 5) 연준의 장기 저금리 유지. 재무 수치: 오픈도어 2019년 매출 47억 달러, 2023년 예상 매출 98억 달러. 경쟁사: 질로우(Zillow Offers)도 직접 매입 방식으로 부동산을 사들이고 있으며 연매출 20억 달러 수준을 향하고 있다. 이 때문에 질로우 주가도 여름 이후 크게 올랐다. SPAC 배경: 기업들이 전통적 IPO의 변동성을 피하기 위해 SPAC을 택하는 흐름이 있으며, 이 흐름은 VIX 등 시장 변동성과 더 연관되어 있다는 해석이 나왔다. 리스크: 렌네상스 캐피털의 캐슬린 스미스는 SPAC이 SEC의 IPO 수준 규제 심사를 받지 않는다고 지적했고, 투자자는 자체 실사가 필요하다는 조언이 나왔다. 출연자 전망: 특정 대상 자산의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 명시적 예측 발언은 없음.
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thomas palipati is back social capital head of sofia 2 is actually acquiring open door this was uh well open door is a real estate firm which as we talk about tech changing the world this is going to change the way perhaps you buy a house julia laroche you actually know chumath and what do you think of this move that they're making okay so first of all i just want to uh i think we really need to step back and give champ poly hapatia a lot of credit for the recent wave of specs that we're seeing he really has kind of pioneered the resurgence here and brought a lot of credibility to the space you know he brought virgin galactic to the public markets through us back just about a year ago i believe adam uh so there's been a lot of attention on the space and of course uh he made an announcement this morning that through this ipob vehicle that you're just referencing they're bringing open door to the public markets and let me just kind of give you a walk through to his thesis he posted a one-pager and this isn't really about it's real estate but all of the buying and selling online it like has touched every industry yet real estate has really kind of been left behind here but he points out that this company is so far ahead in the game he's outlined five tailwinds for the uh consumer real estate market just let me walk you through it it relates a lot to millennials actually um one the affordability issues especially in big cities post-financial crisis you really didn't see much in the way of development really under development in terms of the supply you also have the federal government eliminating that salt deduction tax which is kind of causing a lot of folks to move out of some of the states like new york and california for example um millennials uh i'm a millennial we're starting to get married start families housing is becoming much more interesting uh he points out that work from home because of the pandemic that is here to stay another interesting trend and of course low interest rates in the federal reserve remaining in the foreseeable future um a couple more highlights here uh the revenue for this company was 4.7 billion in 2019 he expects that this company by 2023 will make 9.8 billion of course if you look at the vehicle itself um the this back here the shares were just popping on this news and i was referencing uh earlier just someone who's brought a lot to this space so of course a lot of attention here on chemata and i'm sure more to come in the future and to julia's point i mean this type of business that open door is in is enormously profitable they're not the first ones to do it consider zillow offers for example that's a company that's been directly buying real estate as well using the intel that they have on their website if anything they're the gargantuans in this space already on pace to become a two billion dollar revenue business just for zillow that's partially the reason why stock of zillow has been up so much in this late summer but i think we also have to speak to the idea of spax as well we've been talking about this concept for a number in a number of applications on this program over the summer it seems like there's been a lot of renewed interest in this space and i think that for a company like open door where they're already at a multi-billion dollar valuation before deciding to team up with palpatia here i think we have to speak to the idea that this is less about the company not having the resources to go public with a company that large this late stage they could probably go to the likes of jp morgan chase or goldman through a traditional ipo but they don't want to deal with the volatility when you don't have to deal with volatility in the market you can go to a stack and say i will just sell all my shares at a preset price that i don't have to go on the road show and then adjust the pricing to all these different types of investors that's the volatility that these companies are trying to avoid when they go through a route like this as opposed to a traditional ipo it remains to be seen how long this trend will go i think it's more tied to what's happening in the vix than it is about the size of these companies well and brian i think it's worth bringing up as well a point that kathleen smith of renaissance capital mentioned yesterday on the show she of course is an expert in initial public offerings and she threw a little shade it's back saying that they don't um get the same kind of regulatory scrutiny that ipos do from the sec because they don't go through that same process so that's just something to keep in mind as well as an investor you're putting a lot of trust in the people who put this back together to do that due diligence for you rather than the sec although any investment you make you should probably do some of your own yourself
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